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Premier League · Matchweek 3

Momentum

BHALeeds United
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer
Capacity
31,876
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,661

Teams

Coaches
Fabian Hürzeler · Daniel Farke
Position
10 · 9
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Stuart Attwell

Weather

Conditions
few clouds
Temperature
20.4° (feels 20.0°)
Wind
6.2
Humidity
59%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Arsenal 4400 817 12 WWWW
2 Manchester City 4400 826 12 WWWW
3 Leeds United 4220 734 8 WDDW
4 Hull City 4220 523 8 WWDD
5 Brighton & Hove Albion 4211 1358 7 WLDW
6 Chelsea 4211 1091 7 WWLD
7 Brentford 4130 743 6 WDDD
8 Liverpool 4130 642 6 DDWD
9 Everton 4130 532 6 WDDD
10 Ipswich Town 4202 710-3 6 WLLW
11 Nottingham Forest 4121 440 5 LDDW
12 Newcastle United 4121 78-1 5 DWDL
13 Manchester United 4112 770 4 LWDL
14 Sunderland 4112 35-2 4 LWDL
15 AFC Bournemouth 4031 67-1 3 LDDD
16 Crystal Palace 4103 611-5 3 LLWL
17 Tottenham Hotspur 4022 05-5 2 LLDD
18 Fulham 4013 47-3 1 LLLD
19 Aston Villa 4013 17-6 1 LLDL
20 Coventry City 4004 010-10 0 LLLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • Relegation

Brighton & Hove Albion

LDWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 7 · xG 10.28–6.37 · xPts 9.25

  • L A Chelsea 3–4 xG 1.36–3.37 UK PL
  • W H Tromsø 4–0 xG 2.58–0.38 UEFA ECL
  • W H Aston Villa 4–0 xG 3.19–0.33 UK PL
  • D A Tromsø 0–0 xG 1.9–0.79 UEFA ECL
  • L H Manchester United 0–3 xG 1.25–1.49 UK PL

Leeds United

DWLWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 5.53–10.16 · xPts 4.36

  • D H Brentford 1–1 xG 1.12–1.84 UK PL
  • W A Nottingham Forest 1–0 xG 0.75–0.88 UK PL
  • L A West Ham United 0–3 xG 1.77–2.84 UK PL
  • W H Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 xG 0.4–2.8 UK PL
  • D A Tottenham Hotspur 1–1 xG 1.5–1.81 UK PL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 23 matches since 2005

Brighton & Hove Albion 137 draws3 Leeds United

Goals 39–21 · 2.61 per match · BTTS 48% · over 2.5 48%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Brighton & Hove Albion 44 draws2 Leeds United

Goals 11–7 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 20%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Brighton & Hove Albion 22 draws1 Leeds United

Goals 7–4 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Brighton & Hove Albion 1–1 Leeds United UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Leeds United 1–0 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Brighton & Hove Albion 3–0 Leeds United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Leeds United 2–2 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 Leeds United UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Leeds United 1–1 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Brighton & Hove Albion 0–0 Leeds United UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Brighton & Hove Albion 2–0 Leeds United neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Leeds United 0–1 Brighton & Hove Albion UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Leeds United 2–0 Brighton & Hove Albion UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBrighton & Hove Albion all · 4Brighton & Hove Albion at home · 2Leeds United all · 4Leeds United away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Brighton & Hove Albion · 6 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.95

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.596
Early press (0-15, level)+0.676
Late push (76+, level)+0.942

Game state

When ahead-0.093
When level+0.956
When behind+0.432
10 min after conceding-0.042
10 min after scoring+0.515

Situations

At home+0.463
Away+0.673
3 days rest or fewer+0.232
4+ days rest+0.744

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.232
As favourite+0.744

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.226
Conceded when ahead-0.073
Conceded late (76+)-0.403

Congested vs rested -0.51 · Ahead vs level -1.04 · Behind vs level -0.52

Leeds United · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.18) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.73

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.184
Early press (0-15, level)-0.104
Late push (76+, level)-0.473

Game state

When ahead+0.173
When level-0.264
10 min after conceding-0.642
10 min after scoring+0.734

Situations

At home-0.092
Away-0.242
4+ days rest-0.184

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.313
Evenly matched-0.143

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.174
Conceded when ahead+0.023
Conceded late (76+)+0.113

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.14

Brighton & Hove Albion

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.753.251.252.351.8

Leeds United

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 50%2.01.00.50.931.36
3-5-22 50%2.02.51.01.991.57

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.6 pts at 9.0h

2.06Home 47% ▼ -4.7 ptsopened 1.863.7Draw 26% · +0.9 ptsopened 3.813.66Away 27% ▲ +3.8 ptsopened 4.24
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.06 ▼ -4.73.7 · +0.93.66 ▲ +3.810m
bet3652.0 ▼ -4.53.5 · +0.43.7 ▲ +4.110m
Betfair1.91 ▼ -2.43.75 · +0.33.9 ▲ +2.010m
BetVictor2.0 ▼ -3.53.7 · -0.33.5 ▲ +3.810m
Coral1.91 ▼ -3.13.5 · +0.63.6 ▲ +2.510m
Ladbrokes1.91 ▼ -3.13.5 · +0.63.6 ▲ +2.510m
Unibet2.0 ▼ -4.63.4 ▲ +2.33.9 ▲ +2.310m
WilliamHill2.0 ▼ -3.93.4 · +0.73.5 ▲ +3.210m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 47%3.5Draw 27% P 26%3.7Away 26% P 27%

Double Chance

1.28Brighton or Draw 37%1.28Brighton or Leeds 37%1.8Draw or Leeds 26%

Draw No Bet

1.441 65%2.622 35%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.72Over 55% P 54%2.1Under 45% P 46%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42% P 42%1.61Under 58% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%44%-1.8
Draw26%28%30%+1.8
Away27%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.554%54%54%+0.8

Stuart Attwell

Career
406 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.78 (3.65 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
17.5 · 3.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.2
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Premier League (5-year window · 101 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.474.26+0.4769
Fouls / match20.621.6-0.32
Fouls per card4.85.1-0.94 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.210.25-0.6619
Time added8.68.4+0.3565
First card
39' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.43

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-23 80 311 25'6
2026-08-13 30 150 29'14
2026-05-19 70 290 28'8
2026-05-13 20 170 52'6
2026-05-09 30 240 54'5
2026-04-25 70 200 38'9
2026-04-18 · Brighton & Hove Albion 40 280 34'13
2026-03-20 41 192 28'14
2026-03-16 60 220 24'9
2026-03-03 · Leeds United 40 341 45'16