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Championship · Matchweek 8

Momentum

PortsmouthBBR
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
8

Venue

Stadium
Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Capacity
20,688
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
John Mousinho · Tony Mowbray
Position
18 · 16
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 5-4-1

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
18.6° (feels 18.5°)
Wind
9.8
Humidity
77%

Where to watch · 5

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Portsmouth

WLLWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 6.11–6.26 · xPts 6.79

  • D A Charlton Athletic 0–0 xG 0.56–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • W H Cardiff City 2–0 xG 1.63–1.23 UK CHAMP
  • L H Derby County 0–2 xG 1.02–0.9 UK CHAMP
  • L A Bristol City 1–2 xG 1.53–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • W A Lincoln City 3–1 xG 1.38–2.34 UK CHAMP

Blackburn Rovers

LDLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 5.24–7.39 · xPts 5.45

  • W H Millwall 3–1 xG 1.14–2.0 UK CHAMP
  • L H Sheffield United 1–2 xG 1.83–0.53 UK CHAMP
  • L A Preston North End 1–2 xG 0.78–1.51 UK CHAMP
  • D A Lincoln City 0–0 xG 0.3–1.74 UK CHAMP
  • L H Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 1.2–1.61 UK CHAMP

small sample 4 meetings 2025–2026

Last 4

Portsmouth 21 draws1 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 4–5 · Portsmouth hosting: 2W 0D 0L · Blackburn Rovers hosting: 1W 1D 0L

At Fratton Park: 2 meetings · Portsmouth 2 · draws 0 · Blackburn Rovers 0 · 2.0 goals per match

All-time since 2003: 18 meetings · Portsmouth 6 · draws 3 · Blackburn Rovers 9

  • Portsmouth unbeaten in the last 3 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.252.62-0.374
Both teams score50%58%-8%4
Over 2.5 goals50%52%-2%4
Corners10.010.4-0.44
Cards4.54.1+0.44

0.50 first-half goals per match

How these games go · 4 with event data

PortsmouthBlackburn Rovers
Scored first2 of 42 of 4
Scored first and won11
Won from behind10

first goal on average in minute 50 · a side came back in 2 · goal after the 75th minute in 3

When the goals come · all goals, 4 meetings

0-15'0
16-30'1
31-45'1
46-60'0
61-75'3
76-90'4

2 equalisers · 3 headers

Expected goals · last 4 with xG

Portsmouth 1.05 xGper match1.07 xG Blackburn Rovers

Deserved on xG: Portsmouth 1 · level 3 · Blackburn Rovers 0 — actual wins in those games 2 / 1

Against the market · 4 with closing odds

Favourite won 2 (50%), drew 1, upset 1 · market favoured Portsmouth 1×, Blackburn Rovers 3× · avg favourite 43%, avg price of the actual result 41%

Fixture specialists

  • 1 Hayden Carter Blackburn Rovers · last Mar 2026
  • 1 Connor Ogilvie Portsmouth · last Mar 2026
  • 1 Ibane Bowat Portsmouth · last Dec 2025
  • 1 Callum Lang Portsmouth · last Dec 2025
  • 1 Yuki Ohashi Blackburn Rovers · last Dec 2025

Last meeting · 2026-03-07 · UK CHAMP

Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Portsmouth · ref Tom Nield

  • 84' Connor Ogilvie assist Jacob Brown 0–1
  • 90+3' Hayden Carter assist Ryoya Morishita 1–1

xG 1.18 – 0.79 · corners 9 · cards 2

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

42.0%Portsmouth P 44%28.3%Draw P 28%29.7%Blackburn Rovers P 28%

Over / under 2.5

41.5%Over 2.5 P 46%58.5%Under 2.5 P 54%

Both teams to score

47.4%Yes52.6%No

Expected

Portsmouth goals
1.3 (0–3)
Blackburn Rovers goals
1.05 (0–2)
Corners
11.05 (7–16)
Cards
4.58 (2–8)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

38.3%Portsmouth26.7%Draw34.9%Blackburn Rovers

Over / under 2.5

49.9%Over 2.550.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.9%Yes45.1%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 18 matches since 2003

Portsmouth 63 draws9 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 18–25 · 2.39 per match · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 56%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Portsmouth 42 draws4 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 9–13 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Portsmouth 22 draws1 Blackburn Rovers

Goals 4–5 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 2–1 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 1–0 Blackburn Rovers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 3–0 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Portsmouth 0–0 Blackburn Rovers UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 3–1 Portsmouth neutral UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Blackburn Rovers 2–0 Portsmouth UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 3–2 Blackburn Rovers UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 0–1 Blackburn Rovers UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Blackburn Rovers 0–1 Portsmouth neutral UK PL · Regular Season
MetricPortsmouth all · 6Portsmouth at home · 3Blackburn Rovers all · 7Blackburn Rovers away · 3
Results
Matches67
Points per game1.171.14
W / D / L2 / 1 / 32 / 2 / 3
Goals for / match1.171.43
Goals against / match1.331.43
Clean sheets33%14%
Failed to score33%14%
Both teams scored50%86%
Over 2.550%86%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.310.99
xG against / match1.361.54
xG difference-0.05-0.54
Finishing vs xG-0.150.43
xPts / match1.351.01
Points vs xPts-0.180.13
Game state
Scored first50%43%
PPG when scoring first2.001.00
PPG when conceding first0.001.33
Came back from behind0%40%
Leads held67%40%
Minutes leading30%22%
Minutes level36%48%
Minutes trailing34%30%
First goal (min)3640
First goal conceded (min)2829
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half43%70%
Goals conceded in 2nd half25%40%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.14
Late goals against0.000.14
Style
Possession54%52%
Shots14.712.1
On target4.24.0
Shot conversion8%12%
Shots inside box57%58%
Big chances created1.31.8
Corners6.75.7
xG from set plays43%16%
Goals from headers14%30%
Pressure index11.510.5
Dominant minutes50.843.9
Pass accuracy76%82%
Fouls9.310.6
Cards0.503.43

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Portsmouth

0–15'20
16–30'11
31–45'15
46–60'11
61–75'11
76–90'10

Blackburn Rovers

0–15'02
16–30'22
31–45'12
46–60'62
61–75'01
76–90'11

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Portsmouth · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.016
Early press (0-15, level)-0.056
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.163
When level+0.056
When behind-0.153
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.024

Situations

At home-0.013
Away+0.033
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.052
v bottom-tier opponents+0.044
Evenly matched-0.004

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.013
Conceded late (76+)-0.286

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level -0.20

Blackburn Rovers · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.55

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late push (76+, level)+0.512
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.353

Game state

When ahead-0.145
When level+0.067
When behind+0.155
10 min after conceding+0.236
10 min after scoring+0.556

Situations

At home+0.004
Away+0.103
3 days rest or fewer+0.282
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.016
Evenly matched+0.125
As underdog-0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.067
Conceded when ahead+0.045
Conceded late (76+)-0.057

Congested vs rested +0.32 · Ahead vs level -0.21 · Behind vs level +0.09

Portsmouth

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%1.171.171.331.311.36

Blackburn Rovers

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 71%1.01.21.41.011.45
3-4-2-11 14%0.01.02.00.781.51
5-4-11 14%3.03.01.01.142.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 99 snapshots · last 22.0h before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.2 pts at 22.0h

2.18Home 44% ▼ -2.0 ptsopened 2.063.5Draw 28% · +0.3 ptsopened 3.53.4Away 28% ▲ +1.7 ptsopened 3.58
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.18 ▼ -2.03.5 · +0.33.4 ▲ +1.722.0h
bet3652.15 · +0.33.5 ▼ -1.23.3 · +0.922.0h
Betfair2.1 · +0.03.4 · -0.83.4 · +0.822.0h
BetVictor2.1 · -0.03.4 · -0.63.4 · +0.622.0h
Coral2.1 · +0.63.4 · -0.33.4 · -0.322.0h
Ladbrokes2.1 · +0.03.4 · +0.03.4 · +0.022.0h
Unibet2.08 · +0.03.35 · +0.03.4 · +0.022.0h
WilliamHill2.1 · +0.03.25 · +0.03.3 · +0.022.0h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 22.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 44%3.5Draw 27% P 28%3.3Away 29% P 28%

Double Chance

1.33Portsmouth or Draw 35%1.28Portsmouth or Blackburn 37%1.66Draw or Blackburn 28%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 56%2.1Under 44% P 44%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home44%44%43%-0.3
Draw28%28%30%+2.4
Away28%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2