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Championship · Matchweek 8

Momentum

Cardiff CityCHA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
8

Venue

Stadium
Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Capacity
33,280
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Brian Barry-Murphy · Nathan Jones
Position
21 · 7
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Elliot Bell

Weather

Conditions
moderate rain
Temperature
17.8° (feels 18.1°)
Wind
8.6
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 12

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Bristol City 8413 1112-1 13 WWLLW
6 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
7 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
8 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
9 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
10 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
11 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
12 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
13 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 8224 710-3 8 LLWLL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Cardiff City

DLLDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 8 · xG 9.5–6.72 · xPts 8.5

  • L A Bolton Wanderers 0–1 xG 2.34–0.54 UK CHAMP
  • D H Stoke City 1–1 xG 2.73–0.95 UK CHAMP
  • L A Portsmouth 0–2 xG 1.23–1.63 UK CHAMP
  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 0.64–2.2 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield United 2–2 xG 2.55–1.4 UK CHAMP

Charlton Athletic

WDLDD 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 2 GA 5 · xG 3.84–5.31 · xPts 5.82

  • D H Portsmouth 0–0 xG 0.96–0.56 UK CHAMP
  • D H Queens Park Rangers 0–0 xG 0.8–0.81 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 0–4 xG 0.55–2.16 UK CHAMP
  • D A West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.49–0.82 UK CHAMP
  • W H Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.03–0.96 UK CHAMP

first meeting No meetings in the last five years

All-time since 2007: 12 meetings · Cardiff City 2 · draws 6 · Charlton Athletic 4

  • Cardiff City unbeaten in the last 4 meetings
  • Cardiff City haven't beaten Charlton Athletic since Sep 2015
  • Charlton Athletic unbeaten in the last 3 meetings
  • Charlton Athletic haven't beaten Cardiff City since Mar 2015
  • Last 3 meetings all drawn

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

43.3%Cardiff City P 55%28.1%Draw P 23%28.6%Charlton Athletic P 22%

Over / under 2.5

41.9%Over 2.5 P 59%58.1%Under 2.5 P 41%

Both teams to score

47.5%Yes52.5%No

Expected

Cardiff City goals
1.33 (0–3)
Charlton Athletic goals
1.03 (0–2)
Corners
13.2 (8–18)
Cards
4.11 (2–7)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

55.5%Cardiff City24.2%Draw20.3%Charlton Athletic

Over / under 2.5

52.6%Over 2.547.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.9%Yes48.1%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 12 matches since 2007

Cardiff City 26 draws4 Charlton Athletic

Goals 14–18 · 2.67 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Cardiff City 26 draws2 Charlton Athletic

Goals 14–13 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Cardiff City 13 draws1 Charlton Athletic

Goals 5–5 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Cardiff City 0–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Charlton Athletic 2–2 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Charlton Athletic 0–0 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Cardiff City 2–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Cardiff City 1–2 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Charlton Athletic 1–1 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Cardiff City 0–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Charlton Athletic 5–4 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Charlton Athletic 2–2 Cardiff City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Cardiff City 2–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricCardiff City all · 7Cardiff City at home · 3Charlton Athletic all · 7Charlton Athletic away · 3
Results
Matches77
Points per game0.571.71
W / D / L0 / 4 / 33 / 3 / 1
Goals for / match1.000.86
Goals against / match1.571.00
Clean sheets0%43%
Failed to score29%43%
Both teams scored71%43%
Over 2.543%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.890.85
xG against / match1.461.46
xG difference0.43-0.62
Finishing vs xG-0.890.01
xPts / match1.621.05
Points vs xPts-1.050.67
Game state
Scored first29%29%
PPG when scoring first1.003.00
PPG when conceding first0.401.33
Came back from behind50%67%
Leads held0%100%
Minutes leading3%20%
Minutes level54%60%
Minutes trailing43%20%
First goal (min)5048
First goal conceded (min)3043
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half43%83%
Goals conceded in 2nd half36%29%
Late goals for (76'+)0.140.14
Late goals against0.140.00
Style
Possession65%38%
Shots17.910.3
On target6.42.6
Shot conversion6%8%
Shots inside box70%58%
Big chances created2.30.6
Corners8.14.9
xG from set plays32%40%
Goals from headers14%17%
Pressure index17.78.8
Dominant minutes59.440.1
Pass accuracy85%76%
Fouls9.610.7
Cards1.711.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Cardiff City

0–15'13
16–30'12
31–45'22
46–60'03
61–75'20
76–90'11

Charlton Athletic

0–15'11
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'21
61–75'21
76–90'10

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Cardiff City · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.69

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.597
Late push (76+, level)+0.615
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.234

Game state

When ahead+0.252
When level+0.567
When behind+0.186
10 min after conceding+0.187
10 min after scoring+0.695

Situations

At home+0.313
Away+0.444
3 days rest or fewer+0.452
4+ days rest+0.365

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.233
v bottom-tier opponents+0.504
Evenly matched+0.394
As underdog+0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead-0.482
Conceded late (76+)-0.227

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.31 · Behind vs level -0.38

Charlton Athletic · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.11) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.117
Early press (0-15, level)+0.437
Late push (76+, level)-0.354

Game state

When ahead-0.333
When level-0.037
When behind-0.113
10 min after conceding-0.574
10 min after scoring+0.044

Situations

At home-0.034
Away-0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.342
4+ days rest-0.225

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.372
v bottom-tier opponents+0.154
Evenly matched+0.172
As underdog-0.304

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.447
Conceded when ahead+0.373
Conceded late (76+)+0.096

Congested vs rested +0.56 · Ahead vs level -0.30 · Behind vs level -0.09

Cardiff City

Current: winless 16 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 57%0.50.751.52.211.13
4-1-4-13 43%0.671.331.671.451.9

Charlton Athletic

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 4 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 100%1.710.861.00.851.46

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 117 snapshots · last 3.5h before kick-off · biggest step: home -3.2 pts at 24.5h

1.75Home 55% · -0.6 ptsopened 1.74.19Draw 23% ▲ +1.2 ptsopened 4.344.42Away 22% · -0.7 ptsopened 4.21
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.75 · -0.64.19 ▲ +1.24.42 · -0.73.5h
bet3651.72 · +0.23.9 · +0.44.5 · -0.53.5h
Betfair1.75 · -0.23.9 · +0.84.33 · -0.53.5h
BetVictor1.73 · -0.24.0 · -0.54.33 · +0.73.5h
Coral1.75 · +0.04.0 · +0.04.2 · +0.03.5h
Ladbrokes1.73 · +0.34.0 · -0.14.2 · -0.13.5h
Unibet1.71 · -0.33.9 · +0.34.35 · +0.03.5h
WilliamHill1.73 · +0.33.8 · -0.14.0 · -0.13.5h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 3.5h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.72Home 55% P 55%3.9Draw 24% P 23%4.5Away 21% P 22%

Double Chance

1.2Cardiff or Draw 39%1.25Cardiff or Charlton 38%2.0Draw or Charlton 23%

Draw No Bet

1.331 71%3.252 29%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 59%2.2Under 43% P 41%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.512 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Number of Cards

3.52.1Over 44% P 43%1.66Under 56% P 57%
4.52.2Over 42%1.61Under 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 20–22.5% · 299 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home55%56%60%+4.2
Draw23%23%21%-1.7
Away22%21%18%-2.5

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 59%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Elliot Bell

Career
25 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.6 (4.48 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
24.2 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.04
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match22.421.8+0.43
Fouls per card4.95.4-1.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.050.17-1.762
Time added8.37.2+1.2592
First card
39' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-05 30 230 67'9
2026-08-29 71 190 16'7
2026-08-22 50 210 14'9
2026-04-21 70 240 28'8
2026-04-06 30 280 3'10
2026-03-10 60 230 31'12
2026-03-03 70 290 13'7
2026-02-07 40 200 53'8
2026-01-20 40 220 14'5
2026-01-11 40 230 55'6