Rating 6.95 (64th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (29% of team goals) · 83% of minutes
Championship · Matchweek 7
Momentum
– WatfordStoke City –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Loading statistics…
Season context
| Watford | at home | Stat | league | away | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.4 #21 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 44.3 #19 |
| 11.9 #19 | – | Shots total | 13.4 | – | 12.1 #17 |
| 3.9 #15 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 3.9 #15 |
| 3.4 #23 | – | Corners | 5.4 | – | 4.0 #22 |
| 11.0 #13 | – | Fouls | 11.2 | – | 15.7 #1 |
| 1.0 #23 | – | Offsides | 2.1 | – | 2.7 #6 |
| 15.6 #6 | – | Tackles | 14.8 | – | 16.6 #4 |
| 85.3 #19 | – | Attacks | 93.5 | – | 85.4 #18 |
| 39.9 #20 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.3 | – | 34.0 #24 |
| 374.1 #16 | – | Passes | 418.1 | – | 349.6 #19 |
| 2.6 #3 | – | Yellowcards | 1.8 | – | 2.3 #6 |
| 0.4 #22 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 0.9 #13 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 66.3 | – | – #7 |
| – #18 | – | Cleansheet | 21.1 | – | – #6 |
| – #9 | – | Draw | 28.9 | – | – #18 |
| 1.2 #18 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.1 #22 |
| -0.2 #16 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | 0.5 #3 |
| – #7 | – | Failed to score | 21.0 | – | – #18 |
| 1.0 #17 | 1.5 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 #7 |
| 1.3 #15 | 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 #9 |
| 0.3 #1 | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.3 #1 |
| 10.7 #5 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 11.7 #2 |
| – #7 | – | Lost | 35.5 | – | – #7 |
| – | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.1 #4 |
| 6.7 #20 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #13 |
| 3.9 #12 | – | Shots blocked | 3.8 | – | 3.0 #18 |
| 8.7 #11 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.1 | – | 8.1 #16 |
| 4.1 #20 | – | Shots off target | 5.4 | – | 5.3 #15 |
| 3.1 #21 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 4.0 #13 |
| – #15 | – | Win | 35.6 | – | – #7 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 24.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 81 of 552
- Goals / match
- 2.86 (home 1.63 · away 1.23)
- Home / draw / away
- 42% · 28% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 67% · 63%
- Cards / match
- 3.74 (reds 0.02)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Watford · 2026/2027 · Championship
Rating 6.97 (76th pct) · G+A 0 + 0 (0% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 6.81 (37th pct) · G+A 0 + 0 (0% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Stoke City · 2026/2027 · Championship
Rating 7.0 (73th pct) · G+A 3 + 0 (27% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 7.0 (75th pct) · G+A 2 + 2 (36% of team goals) · 88% of minutes
Rating 6.95 (65th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (9% of team goals) · 86% of minutes
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 7
Venue
- Stadium
- Vicarage Road, Watford
- Capacity
- 22,200
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 18,296
Teams
- Coaches
- Alessio Dionisi · Mark Robins
- Position
- 12 · 15
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Referee
Lewis Smith
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 22.8° (feels 22.8°)
- Wind
- 7.2
- Humidity
- 64%
Where to watch · 7
Cyprus
Nova Sports 3
England
Sky Sports+
Greece
Nova Sports 3
Northern Ireland
Sky Sports+
Republic of Ireland
Sky Sports+
Scotland
Sky Sports+
Wales
Sky Sports+
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham United |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Swansea City |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  West Bromwich Albion |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 5 |  Queens Park Rangers |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | WWLDD |
| 6 |  Charlton Athletic |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 | WDLDD |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 11 | WWLDW |
| 8 |  Lincoln City |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 9 |  Southampton (-4) |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 10 | WDDWW |
| 10 |  Birmingham City |
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 | WDDLW |
| 11 |  Millwall |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 |  Stoke City |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 13 |  Bristol City |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 | WWWLL |
| 14 |  Norwich City |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 15 |  Sheffield United |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | DWLWL |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 17 |  Watford |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | DLLWL |
| 18 |  Portsmouth |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | WLLWD |
| 19 |  Wrexham |
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | LWDDL |
| 20 |  Bolton Wanderers |
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 21 |  Cardiff City |
7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | DLLDL |
| 22 |  Derby County |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 23 |  Preston North End |
7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 24 |  Burnley |
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | LDLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 12 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Middlesbrough |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 | WDWWD |
| 3 | West Ham United |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 9 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Swansea City |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | WWDLW |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WDLDD |
| 7 | Watford |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | DLLWL |
| 8 | Millwall |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | LLWLD |
| 9 | Stoke City |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | LWWDW |
| 10 | Norwich City |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Blackburn Rovers |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LDLLW |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | LLLLW |
| 13 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | WWLDW |
| 14 | Queens Park Rangers |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | WWLDD |
| 15 | Sheffield United |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 | DWLWL |
| 16 | Birmingham City |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | WDDLW |
| 17 | Cardiff City |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 18 | Portsmouth |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | WLLWD |
| 19 | Bristol City |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | WWWLL |
| 20 | Preston North End |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 21 | Burnley |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 22 | Wrexham |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LWDDL |
| 23 | Lincoln City |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | WDDWW |
| 24 | Derby County |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln City |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Queens Park Rangers |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | WWLDW |
| 4 | Birmingham City |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | WDDLW |
| 5 | Bristol City |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | WWWLL |
| 6 | Swansea City |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WWDLW |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | LDWWD |
| 8 | West Ham United |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | DWWWW |
| 9 | Sheffield United |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | DWLWL |
| 10 | Wrexham |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | LWDDL |
| 11 | Portsmouth |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WLLWD |
| 12 | Middlesbrough |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | WDWWD |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | WDLDD |
| 14 | Millwall |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 15 | Stoke City |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | LWWDW |
| 16 | Derby County |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Norwich City |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | WLWWL |
| 18 | Blackburn Rovers |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LDLLW |
| 19 | Southampton |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | WDDWW |
| 20 | Watford |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | DLLWL |
| 21 | Cardiff City |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | DLLDL |
| 22 | Bolton Wanderers |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLLW |
| 23 | Burnley |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LDLDL |
| 24 | Preston North End |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LLWLL |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-off
- Relegation
Watford
DDLLW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 6.55–9.34 · xPts 5.4
- W
H
Preston North End
2–1
xG 2.02–1.93
UK CHAMP
- L
A
West Bromwich Albion
0–1
xG 1.26–1.43
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Swansea City
0–2
xG 1.11–3.08
UK CHAMP
- D
H
West Ham United
1–1
xG 1.61–1.07
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Wrexham
1–1
xG 0.55–1.83
UK CHAMP
WDDLLW 2W 2D 2L · 8 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 7.79–10.91 · xPts 6.55
- W
H
Preston North End
2–1
xG 2.02–1.93
UK CHAMP
- L
A
West Bromwich Albion
0–1
xG 1.26–1.43
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Swansea City
0–2
xG 1.11–3.08
UK CHAMP
- D
H
West Ham United
1–1
xG 1.61–1.07
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Wrexham
1–1
xG 0.55–1.83
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Southampton
2–1
xG 1.24–1.56
UK CHAMP
Stoke City
LLWWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 4.89–9.06 · xPts 4.44
- D
A
Cardiff City
1–1
xG 0.95–2.73
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Charlton Athletic
4–0
xG 2.16–0.55
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Norwich City
1–0
xG 0.25–1.03
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1–4
xG 0.7–2.44
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Southampton
1–3
xG 0.83–2.31
UK CHAMP
LLLWWD 2W 1D 3L · 7 pts (1.17 ppg) · GF 9 GA 10 · xG 5.78–10.03 · xPts 5.71
- D
A
Cardiff City
1–1
xG 0.95–2.73
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Charlton Athletic
4–0
xG 2.16–0.55
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Norwich City
1–0
xG 0.25–1.03
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1–4
xG 0.7–2.44
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Southampton
1–3
xG 0.83–2.31
UK CHAMP
- L
H
Swansea City
1–2
xG 0.89–0.97
UK CHAMP
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
44.8%Watford P 42%26.9%Draw P 28%28.3%Stoke City P 30%
Over / under 2.5
46.2%Over 2.5 P 49%53.8%Under 2.5 P 51%
Both teams to score
50.8%Yes49.2%No
Expected
- Watford goals
- 1.44 (0–3)
- Stoke City goals
- 1.09 (0–2)
- Corners
- 9.53 (6–14)
- Cards
- 5.01 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 44.8% / 26.9% / 28.3%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
51.8%Watford25.7%Draw22.5%Stoke City
Over / under 2.5
46.5%Over 2.553.5%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
49.4%Yes50.6%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 1.261 | 0.786 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.772 | 0.579 |
| btts | yes | 0.678 | 0.485 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 21 matches since 2005
Goals 25–16 · 1.95 per match · BTTS 29% · over 2.5 38%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 15–8 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 6–5 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- L Watford 1–2 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Stoke City 3–1 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Watford 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Stoke City 0–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Watford 3–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Watford 1–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Stoke City 1–0 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Watford 2–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Stoke City 0–4 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Stoke City 1–2 Watford UK CHAMP · Regular Season
| Metric | Watford all · 7 | Watford at home · 4 | Stoke City all · 7 | Stoke City away · 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 7 | – | 7 | – |
| Points per game | 1.14 | – | 1.43 | – |
| W / D / L | 2 / 2 / 3 | – | 3 / 1 / 3 | – |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | – | 1.57 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.29 | – | 1.57 | – |
| Clean sheets | 0% | – | 29% | – |
| Failed to score | 29% | – | 0% | – |
| Both teams scored | 71% | – | 71% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | – | 71% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.17 | – | 1.04 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | – | 1.50 | – |
| xG difference | -0.60 | – | -0.45 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.17 | – | 0.53 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.01 | – | 1.13 | – |
| Points vs xPts | 0.13 | – | 0.30 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 43% | – | 86% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.67 | – | 1.67 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.75 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Came back from behind | 25% | – | 0% | – |
| Leads held | 50% | – | 50% | – |
| Minutes leading | 17% | – | 42% | – |
| Minutes level | 44% | – | 40% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 39% | – | 18% | – |
| First goal (min) | 41 | – | 19 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 28 | – | 40 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 43% | – | 9% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 22% | – | 64% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.29 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.00 | – | 0.57 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 43% | – | 44% | – |
| Shots | 11.7 | – | 11.9 | – |
| On target | 3.7 | – | 4.0 | – |
| Shot conversion | 8% | – | 13% | – |
| Shots inside box | 73% | – | 68% | – |
| Big chances created | 1.7 | – | 1.3 | – |
| Corners | 3.4 | – | 4.0 | – |
| xG from set plays | 22% | – | 20% | – |
| Goals from headers | 29% | – | 9% | – |
| Pressure index | 9.3 | – | 11.6 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 42.6 | – | 47.0 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | – | 77% | – |
| Fouls | 11.1 | – | 15.7 | – |
| Cards | 2.57 | – | 2.71 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Watford
0–15'22
16–30'23
31–45'02
46–60'02
61–75'10
76–90'20
Stoke City
0–15'41
16–30'43
31–45'20
46–60'11
61–75'02
76–90'04
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Watford · 7 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.09) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.45
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.097
Early press (0-15, level)-0.117
Late push (76+, level)-0.453
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.193
Game state
When ahead-0.144
When level-0.157
When behind+0.004
10 min after conceding-0.177
10 min after scoring-0.015
Situations
At home-0.234
Away+0.093
3 days rest or fewer+0.062
4+ days rest-0.155
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.024
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
As underdog-0.085
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.277
Conceded when ahead+0.454
Conceded late (76+)-0.017
Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.01 · Behind vs level +0.16
Stoke City · 7 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453
Game state
When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807
Situations
At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326
Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05
Watford
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 86% | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 1.03 | 1.75 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 14% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.02 | 1.93 |
Stoke City
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 43% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.81 | 1.91 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 29% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.55 | 1.64 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 14% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.25 | 1.03 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 14% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.53 | 0.43 |
| Metric | Watford all · 10 | Watford at home · 10 | Stoke City all · 10 | Stoke City away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| W / D / L | 2 / 2 / 6 | 3 / 3 / 4 | 3 / 1 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| Goals against / match | 2.10 | 1.50 | 1.90 | 2.20 |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.12 | 0.95 |
| xG against / match | 1.82 | 1.42 | 1.51 | 1.96 |
| xG difference | -0.64 | -0.09 | -0.39 | -1.01 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.37 | -0.32 | 0.18 | -0.25 |
| xPts / match | 0.99 | 1.33 | 1.15 | 0.86 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.15 | -0.46 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 30% | 30% | 60% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Came back from behind | 14% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| Leads held | 50% | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| Minutes leading | 12% | 19% | 30% | 13% |
| Minutes level | 36% | 49% | 36% | 46% |
| Minutes trailing | 52% | 32% | 34% | 42% |
| First goal (min) | 42 | 47 | 27 | 24 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 24 | 39 | 32 | 35 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 50% | 23% | 14% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 38% | 60% | 63% | 64% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 43% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
| Shots | 11.5 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 10.6 |
| On target | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Shot conversion | 7% | 7% | 10% | 7% |
| Shots inside box | 72% | 67% | 64% | 58% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Corners | 3.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 5.5 |
| xG from set plays | 17% | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Goals from headers | 25% | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Pressure index | 8.7 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 38.3 | 44.8 | 50.0 | 42.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 80% | 77% | 78% |
| Fouls | 11.9 | 12.4 | 14.0 | 11.7 |
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.20 | 3.00 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Watford
0–15'23
16–30'25
31–45'05
46–60'14
61–75'12
76–90'22
Stoke City
0–15'42
16–30'44
31–45'21
46–60'32
61–75'04
76–90'06
Watford
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 1.03 | 1.75 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.13 | 2.51 |
| 3-5-1-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.02 | 1.93 |
Stoke City
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 5 50% | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.89 | 1.72 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.55 | 1.64 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.53 | 0.43 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.25 | 1.03 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Metric | Watford all · 49 | Watford at home · 24 | Stoke City all · 50 | Stoke City away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 49 | 24 | 50 | 25 |
| Points per game | 1.22 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 0.80 |
| W / D / L | 15 / 15 / 19 | 11 / 7 / 6 | 15 / 11 / 24 | 5 / 5 / 15 |
| Goals for / match | 1.14 | 1.33 | 1.10 | 0.68 |
| Goals against / match | 1.49 | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.44 |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 21% | 28% | 24% |
| Failed to score | 29% | 25% | 32% | 48% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 58% | 48% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 46% | 46% | 32% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.35 | 1.52 | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| xG against / match | 1.33 | 1.18 | 1.47 | 1.70 |
| xG difference | 0.03 | 0.34 | -0.24 | -0.69 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.21 | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.32 |
| xPts / match | 1.40 | 1.56 | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.17 | 0.11 | -0.13 | -0.19 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 26% | 33% | 50% | 36% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.23 | 2.50 | 1.96 | 1.89 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.85 | 1.27 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| Came back from behind | 44% | 60% | 17% | 6% |
| Leads held | 65% | 85% | 60% | 56% |
| Minutes leading | 16% | 26% | 24% | 14% |
| Minutes level | 47% | 48% | 50% | 52% |
| Minutes trailing | 37% | 26% | 25% | 34% |
| First goal (min) | 48 | 43 | 35 | 39 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 30 | 36 | 43 | 39 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 59% | 50% | 42% | 47% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 44% | 50% | 64% | 53% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Late goals against | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Shots | 13.6 | 15.5 | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| On target | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Shot conversion | 8% | 9% | 10% | 7% |
| Shots inside box | 60% | 60% | 65% | 63% |
| Big chances created | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| xG from set plays | 26% | 24% | 28% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 14% | 16% | 11% | 12% |
| Pressure index | 11.0 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 10.9 |
| Dominant minutes | 45.9 | 51.0 | 51.1 | 48.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 78% | 78% |
| Fouls | 10.7 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| Cards | 2.16 | 2.04 | 2.28 | 2.36 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Watford
0–15'711
16–30'616
31–45'1014
46–60'911
61–75'910
76–90'1511
Stoke City
0–15'118
16–30'98
31–45'128
46–60'1215
61–75'57
76–90'620
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Watford · 49 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: with ten men -0.27
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.0249
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0149
Late push (76+, level)+0.0820
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0419
Game state
When ahead-0.0223
When level+0.0649
When behind-0.0134
10 min after conceding-0.2042
10 min after scoring+0.2433
Situations
With ten men-0.273
At home-0.0424
Away+0.0825
3 days rest or fewer+0.1117
4+ days rest-0.0332
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.0127
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0415
As favourite+0.0714
Evenly matched-0.0320
As underdog+0.0515
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.1049
Conceded when ahead+0.1523
Conceded late (76+)-0.1843
Congested vs rested +0.14 · Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level -0.07
Stoke City · 50 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: as favourite +0.47
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1250
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2850
Late push (76+, level)-0.1518
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0425
Game state
When ahead+0.2025
When level+0.1450
When behind+0.0329
10 min after conceding-0.2935
10 min after scoring+0.3734
Situations
With ten men+0.075
At home+0.0525
Away+0.2025
3 days rest or fewer+0.0715
4+ days rest+0.1535
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.0528
v bottom-tier opponents+0.2016
As favourite+0.4710
Evenly matched+0.0120
As underdog+0.0820
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.0550
Conceded when ahead-0.0325
Conceded late (76+)+0.0145
Congested vs rested -0.08 · Ahead vs level +0.06 · Behind vs level -0.11
Watford
Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 14
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 21 43% | 1.48 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 16 33% | 1.13 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 3 6% | 2.33 | 2.0 | 1.33 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 5-4-1 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.16 | 1.82 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.79 |
Stoke City
Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 40 80% | 1.05 | 1.0 | 1.33 | 1.21 | 1.4 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 8% | 1.75 | 1.5 | 1.25 | 1.7 | 1.71 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 4% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.55 | 1.64 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 4% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.29 | 2.17 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.25 | 1.03 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 3.8d before kick-off · 96 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.9 pts at 3.7d · late move: home +1.1 pts inside the final hour
2.33Home 42% · +0.0 ptsopened 2.273.41Draw 28% · +0.2 ptsopened 3.353.23Away 30% · -0.3 ptsopened 3.12
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.33 · +0.0 | 3.41 · +0.2 | 3.23 · -0.3 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.25 ▲ +4.8 | 3.25 · +0.0 | 3.2 ▼ -4.8 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.3 ▲ +3.8 | 3.3 ▲ +1.2 | 3.2 ▼ -5.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 2.25 ▲ +4.3 | 3.4 · -0.6 | 3.1 ▼ -3.7 | 10m |
| Coral | 2.3 ▲ +3.4 | 3.4 · +0.1 | 3.0 ▼ -3.4 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.3 ▲ +3.0 | 3.3 · +0.7 | 3.0 ▼ -3.7 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.45 · -0.4 | 3.25 · +0.4 | 2.8 · -0.0 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 2.25 ▲ +3.7 | 3.1 ▲ +1.1 | 3.1 ▼ -4.8 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: yes +2.1 pts at 3.6d
1.66Yes 56% ▲ +2.1 ptsopened 1.722.1No 44% ▼ -2.1 ptsopened 2.0
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.66 ▲ +2.1 | 2.1 ▼ -2.1 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.75 · -0.9 | 2.05 · +0.9 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.7 · +0.6 | 2.05 · -0.6 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.68 · +0.8 | 2.05 · -0.8 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.67 ▲ +3.0 | 2.1 ▼ -3.0 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 3.7d before kick-off · 94 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: over -3.1 pts at 1.2h · late move: over +1.8 pts inside the final hour
1.97Over 49% · -0.9 ptsopened 1.911.92Under 51% · +0.9 ptsopened 1.93
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.97 · -0.9 | 1.92 · +0.9 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.9 ▲ +2.6 | 1.9 ▼ -2.6 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.95 ▼ -1.6 | 1.8 ▲ +1.6 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.9 · +0.0 | 1.77 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.93 · +0.4 | 1.83 · -0.4 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.25Home 42% P 42%3.25Draw 29% P 28%3.2Away 29% P 30%
Double Chance
1.36Watford or Draw 35%1.33Watford or Stoke 35%1.57Draw or Stoke 30%
Draw No Bet
1.611 58%2.22 42%
Both Teams To Score
1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.9Over 50% P 49%1.9Under 50% P 51%
Total Corners
13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%
Number of Cards
3.51.66Over 56% P 62%2.1Under 44% P 38%
4.51.83Over 50% P 42%1.83Under 50% P 58%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 42% | 41% | 42% | +0.5 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 27% | -2.4 |
| Away | 30% | 29% | 31% | +1.9 |
In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Lewis Smith
- Career
- 75 matches · 7 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.67 (3.57 yellow · 0.05 red)
- Fouls / match
- 20.8 · 5.5 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.21
- Cards to home side
- 45%
Style in Championship (5-year window · 51 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.9 | 4.05 | -0.28 | 41 |
| Fouls / match | 20.8 | 21.8 | -1.01 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.6 | 5.4 | +0.11 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.16 | 0.17 | -0.30 | 43 |
| Time added | 8.2 | 7.2 | +1.14 | 88 |
- First card
- 34' on average
- Card timing
- 17% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 45% (league 45%)
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 54' | 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 45' | 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 15' | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 12' | 10 |
| 2026-04-17 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 7' | 8 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 56' | 9 |
| 2026-04-06 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 4' | 9 |
| 2026-03-18 | 8 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 27' | 9 |
| 2026-03-11 | – | – | 18 | – | – | 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 36' | 14 |