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Championship · Matchweek 7
Derby CountyDerby County
1–2
FT
Birmingham CityBRC

Momentum

– Derby CountyBRC –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
7

Venue

Stadium
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Capacity
33,597
Surface
grass
Attendance
28,121

Teams

Coaches
John Eustace · Chris Davies
Position
22 · 14
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

John Busby

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
21.2° (feels 21.3°)
Wind
9.4
Humidity
73%

Where to watch · 218

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Derby County

DLWLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 9 · xG 5.05–11.13 · xPts 4.41

  • L H West Bromwich Albion 0–1 xG 1.37–0.77 UK CHAMP
  • L A West Ham United 0–3 xG 0.15–3.74 UK CHAMP
  • W A Portsmouth 2–0 xG 0.9–1.02 UK CHAMP
  • L H Swansea City 0–3 xG 0.82–2.96 UK CHAMP
  • D H Cardiff City 2–2 xG 1.81–2.64 UK CHAMP

Birmingham City

DWDDL 1W 3D 1L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 8.62–7.3 · xPts 7.8

  • L A Norwich City 1–2 xG 1.94–1.13 UK CHAMP
  • D H Wolverhampton Wanderers 2–2 xG 1.69–1.64 UK CHAMP
  • D H Southampton 1–1 xG 1.42–1.02 UK CHAMP
  • W A Wrexham 2–1 xG 1.89–1.88 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bristol City 2–2 xG 1.68–1.64 UK CHAMP

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

33.7%Derby County P 28%27.3%Draw P 29%38.9%Birmingham City P 43%

Over / under 2.5

46.1%Over 2.5 P 48%53.9%Under 2.5 P 52%

Both teams to score

51.5%Yes48.5%No

Expected

Derby County goals
1.21 (0–3)
Birmingham City goals
1.31 (0–3)
Corners
10.01 (6–14)
Cards
5.0 (2–8)

Earlier: day before — 33.7% / 27.3% / 38.9%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

33.1%Derby County27.2%Draw39.8%Birmingham City

Over / under 2.5

46.3%Over 2.553.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.0%Yes49.0%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away0.9440.562
ou_2_5over0.7740.58
bttsyes0.6640.471

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 32 matches since 2006

Derby County 1111 draws10 Birmingham City

Goals 51–44 · 2.97 per match · BTTS 69% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Derby County 43 draws3 Birmingham City

Goals 18–14 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Derby County 12 draws2 Birmingham City

Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 1–0 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 1–1 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Derby County 2–2 Birmingham City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Birmingham City 2–0 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Derby County 1–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 0–4 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Birmingham City 1–3 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Derby County 3–2 Birmingham City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Birmingham City 2–2 Derby County UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricDerby County all · 7Derby County at home · 4Birmingham City all · 7Birmingham City away · 4
Results
Matches7–7–
Points per game0.57–1.43–
W / D / L1 / 1 / 5–2 / 4 / 1–
Goals for / match0.86–1.43–
Goals against / match1.86–1.29–
Clean sheets14%–14%–
Failed to score43%–14%–
Both teams scored43%–86%–
Over 2.571%–71%–
Expected goals
xG for / match1.10–1.73–
xG against / match2.16–1.27–
xG difference-1.06–0.45–
Finishing vs xG-0.24–-0.30–
xPts / match0.93–1.67–
Points vs xPts-0.35–-0.24–
Game state
Scored first43%–14%–
PPG when scoring first1.00–3.00–
PPG when conceding first0.25–1.20–
Came back from behind17%–80%–
Leads held33%–100%–
Minutes leading18%–15%–
Minutes level34%–67%–
Minutes trailing48%–18%–
First goal (min)26–40–
First goal conceded (min)24–34–
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half33%–50%–
Goals conceded in 2nd half46%–22%–
Late goals for (76'+)0.00–0.14–
Late goals against0.57–0.14–
Style
Possession50%–48%–
Shots11.7–13.0–
On target3.3–4.4–
Shot conversion7%–11%–
Shots inside box67%–72%–
Big chances created1.6–3.1–
Corners6.4–6.1–
xG from set plays21%–35%–
Goals from headers0%–50%–
Pressure index11.7–12.2–
Dominant minutes47.9–56.9–
Pass accuracy78%–70%–
Fouls13.0–12.1–
Cards2.29–2.00–

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Derby County

0–15'02
16–30'32
31–45'13
46–60'10
61–75'12
76–90'04

Birmingham City

0–15'11
16–30'11
31–45'35
46–60'11
61–75'30
76–90'11

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Derby County · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.31

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.157
Early press (0-15, level)+0.297
Late push (76+, level)-0.552
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.315

Game state

When ahead-0.053
When level-0.057
When behind-0.256
10 min after conceding-0.286
10 min after scoring+0.254

Situations

At home-0.174
Away-0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.212
4+ days rest-0.125

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.223
v bottom-tier opponents-0.033
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.203
Conceded late (76+)+0.207

Congested vs rested -0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.20

Birmingham City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.12) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.127
Early press (0-15, level)+0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.194
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.552

Game state

When ahead+0.152
When level+0.247
When behind-0.295
10 min after conceding-0.366
10 min after scoring+0.296

Situations

At home-0.063
Away+0.274
3 days rest or fewer+0.362
4+ days rest+0.035

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.155
v bottom-tier opponents+0.072
Evenly matched+0.093
As underdog+0.263

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.122
Conceded late (76+)-0.207

Congested vs rested +0.33 · Ahead vs level -0.09 · Behind vs level -0.53

Derby County

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 86%0.670.831.831.042.29
5-3-21 14%0.01.02.01.481.37

Birmingham City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 6

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 100%1.431.431.291.731.27

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 2.6d before kick-off · 70 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +2.0 pts at 20.5h · late move: home +1.4 pts inside the final hour

3.43Home 28% · -0.9 ptsopened 3.243.38Draw 29% ▲ +1.4 ptsopened 3.462.24Away 43% · -0.5 ptsopened 2.16
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle3.43 · -0.93.38 ▲ +1.42.24 · -0.510m
bet3653.2 · -0.03.4 · -0.42.25 · +0.410m
Betfair3.6 ▼ -2.73.25 ▲ +1.82.15 · +0.910m
BetVictor3.2 · -0.33.4 · -0.62.2 · +0.910m
Coral3.3 ▼ -1.43.3 · +0.32.15 ▲ +1.110m
Ladbrokes3.3 ▼ -1.83.3 · +0.82.15 · +1.010m
Unibet3.2 ▼ -2.13.25 · -0.12.2 ▲ +2.210m
WilliamHill3.1 · -0.33.1 · +0.72.2 · -0.410m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.2Home 30% P 28%3.4Draw 28% P 29%2.25Away 42% P 43%

Double Chance

1.66Derby or Draw 29%1.33Derby or Birmingham 36%1.33Draw or Birmingham 36%

Draw No Bet

2.371 39%1.532 61%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 51%1.9No 49%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 48%1.8Under 53% P 52%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 57%2.0Under 46% P 43%
4.52.1Over 44% P 39%1.66Under 56% P 61%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 42.5–45% · 505 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home28%29%23%-5.8
Draw29%28%27%-0.3
Away43%44%50%+6.1

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 57%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.548%49%50%+1.3

John Busby

Career
130 matches · 13 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.82 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
20.7 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.15
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 113 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.874.05-0.3335
Fouls / match20.921.8-0.89
Fouls per card5.55.4-0.15 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4029
Time added7.87.2+0.6871
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-29 40 231 4'5
2026-08-22 20 240 20'9
2026-04-25 · Derby County 40 200 53'12
2026-04-18 60 200 26'10
2026-04-11 50 140 33'10
2026-04-03 · Birmingham City 20 210 21'8
2026-03-21 60 261 22'4
2026-03-07 60 300 19'6
2026-02-25 50 260 9'10
2026-02-21 30 170 76'13