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Championship · Matchweek 6

Momentum

CHAQPR
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
The Valley, London
Capacity
27,111
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Nathan Jones · Julien Stéphan
Position
7 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

Tom Nield

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
14.1° (feels 13.5°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
76%

Where to watch · 8

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Charlton Athletic

WWWDL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 4.16–8.87 · xPts 4.34

  • L A Stoke City 0–4 xG 0.55–2.16 UK CHAMP
  • D A West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.49–0.82 UK CHAMP
  • W H Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.03–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • W A West Ham United 2–1 xG 0.71–3.45 UK CHAMP
  • W H Derby County 2–1 xG 1.37–1.48 UK CHAMP

Queens Park Rangers

WDWWL 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 9.44–5.81 · xPts 9.27

  • L H Middlesbrough 0–1 xG 1.53–2.07 UK CHAMP
  • W H Cardiff City 2–1 xG 2.2–0.64 UK CHAMP
  • W A Blackburn Rovers 2–1 xG 1.61–1.2 UK CHAMP
  • D H Bolton Wanderers 0–0 xG 2.16–0.12 UK CHAMP
  • W A Portsmouth 3–1 xG 1.93–1.78 UK CHAMP

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

35.4%Charlton Athletic P 27%27.6%Draw P 28%37.0%Queens Park Rangers P 44%

Over / under 2.5

45.3%Over 2.5 P 47%54.7%Under 2.5 P 53%

Both teams to score

50.9%Yes49.1%No

Expected

Charlton Athletic goals
1.23 (0–3)
Queens Park Rangers goals
1.26 (0–3)
Corners
9.29 (5–14)
Cards
4.24 (2–7)

Earlier: day before — 35.4% / 27.6% / 37.0%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

33.0%Charlton Athletic25.9%Draw41.0%Queens Park Rangers

Over / under 2.5

55.4%Over 2.544.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.2%Yes42.8%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2draw1.2880.787
bttsno0.7110.518
ou_2_5under0.6030.411

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 13 matches since 2007

Charlton Athletic 34 draws6 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 11–14 · 1.92 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Charlton Athletic 34 draws3 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 10–10 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Charlton Athletic 13 draws1 Queens Park Rangers

Goals 4–5 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Charlton Athletic 0–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Charlton Athletic 0–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 3–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Charlton Athletic 1–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Queens Park Rangers 2–2 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Charlton Athletic 2–0 Queens Park Rangers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Charlton Athletic 1–0 Queens Park Rangers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Queens Park Rangers 1–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Charlton Athletic 2–2 Queens Park Rangers neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricCharlton Athletic all · 7Charlton Athletic at home · 4Queens Park Rangers all · 7Queens Park Rangers away · 4
Results
Matches77
Points per game1.711.71
W / D / L3 / 3 / 13 / 3 / 1
Goals for / match0.861.14
Goals against / match1.000.71
Clean sheets43%29%
Failed to score43%43%
Both teams scored43%57%
Over 2.543%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.851.55
xG against / match1.461.19
xG difference-0.620.36
Finishing vs xG0.01-0.41
xPts / match1.051.60
Points vs xPts0.670.11
Game state
Scored first29%29%
PPG when scoring first3.002.00
PPG when conceding first1.332.00
Came back from behind67%67%
Leads held100%75%
Minutes leading20%20%
Minutes level60%66%
Minutes trailing20%14%
First goal (min)4840
First goal conceded (min)4340
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half83%38%
Goals conceded in 2nd half29%40%
Late goals for (76'+)0.140.00
Late goals against0.000.00
Style
Possession38%49%
Shots10.314.9
On target2.65.0
Shot conversion8%8%
Shots inside box58%70%
Big chances created0.62.1
Corners4.96.3
xG from set plays40%19%
Goals from headers17%14%
Pressure index8.814.6
Dominant minutes40.155.1
Pass accuracy76%84%
Fouls10.79.1
Cards1.711.57

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Charlton Athletic

0–15'11
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'21
61–75'21
76–90'10

Queens Park Rangers

0–15'01
16–30'01
31–45'51
46–60'21
61–75'11
76–90'00

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Charlton Athletic · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.11) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.117
Early press (0-15, level)+0.437
Late push (76+, level)-0.354

Game state

When ahead-0.333
When level-0.027
When behind-0.113
10 min after conceding-0.574
10 min after scoring+0.044

Situations

At home-0.034
Away-0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.342
4+ days rest-0.225

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.372
v bottom-tier opponents+0.154
Evenly matched+0.182
As underdog-0.304

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.447
Conceded when ahead+0.363
Conceded late (76+)+0.096

Congested vs rested +0.56 · Ahead vs level -0.30 · Behind vs level -0.09

Queens Park Rangers · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.29) · stands out: as favourite +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.297
Early press (0-15, level)+0.047
Late push (76+, level)-0.093

Game state

When ahead+0.414
When level+0.367
When behind-0.233
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.394

Situations

At home+0.203
Away+0.354
3 days rest or fewer-0.172
4+ days rest+0.475

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.172
v bottom-tier opponents+0.475
As favourite+0.673
Evenly matched+0.083

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.077
Conceded when ahead-0.324
Conceded late (76+)-0.397

Congested vs rested -0.65 · Ahead vs level +0.04 · Behind vs level -0.59

Charlton Athletic

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 4 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 100%1.710.861.00.851.46

Queens Park Rangers

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-24 57%1.751.00.751.541.18
4-2-3-13 43%1.671.330.671.561.2

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 4.2d before kick-off · 106 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +3.7 pts at 10.0h

3.55Home 27% ▼ -2.9 ptsopened 3.123.42Draw 28% · +0.8 ptsopened 3.422.18Away 44% ▲ +2.2 ptsopened 2.23
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle3.55 ▼ -2.93.42 · +0.82.18 ▲ +2.210m
bet3653.2 ▼ -1.23.25 ▲ +1.12.25 · +0.110m
Betfair3.4 ▼ -4.43.3 ▲ +1.12.15 ▲ +3.310m
BetVictor3.4 ▼ -2.93.4 · -0.12.1 ▲ +3.110m
Coral3.1 ▼ -1.23.3 · +0.62.25 · +0.610m
Ladbrokes3.1 · -1.03.3 · +0.92.25 · +0.110m
Unibet3.1 ▼ -2.13.3 · -0.02.23 ▲ +2.110m
WilliamHill3.3 ▼ -2.83.1 ▲ +1.82.15 · +1.010m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.2Home 29% P 27%3.25Draw 29% P 28%2.25Away 42% P 44%

Double Chance

1.7Charlton or Draw 28%1.33Charlton or QPR 35%1.28Draw or QPR 37%

Draw No Bet

2.51 38%1.52 62%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54%2.0No 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 47%1.9Under 50% P 53%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 46%1.83Under 50% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 42.5–45% · 322 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home27%27%26%-0.8
Draw28%29%32%+2.9
Away44%44%42%-2.0

In those fixtures: 2.3 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 39%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Tom Nield

Career
79 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.86 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.114.05+0.1057
Fouls / match23.321.8+1.27
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.140.17-0.4720
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-29 50 281 15'5
2026-08-22 40 240 24'6
2026-05-02 70 240 18'12
2026-04-25 · Charlton Athletic 30 200 2'13
2026-04-18 · Queens Park Rangers 40 200 19'6
2026-04-03 20 271 29'10
2026-03-13 20 200 62'9
2026-03-10 50 241 36'5
2026-03-07 20 140 83'5
2026-02-28 · Queens Park Rangers 40 190 79'6