Rating 7.23 (91th pct) · G+A 6 + 0 (43% of team goals) · 93% of minutes
Championship · Matchweek 6
Momentum
– MIDMillwall –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Loading statistics…
Season context
| Middlesbrough | at home | Stat | league | away | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61.4 #2 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 45.4 #18 |
| 17.9 #1 | – | Shots total | 13.4 | – | 14.6 #9 |
| 5.3 #4 | – | Shots on target | 4.2 | – | 3.7 #18 |
| 6.1 #5 | – | Corners | 5.4 | – | 4.7 #18 |
| 9.9 #19 | – | Fouls | 11.2 | – | 12.4 #5 |
| 2.9 #4 | – | Offsides | 2.1 | – | 3.9 #1 |
| 15.4 #7 | – | Tackles | 14.8 | – | 15.1 #10 |
| 103.6 #5 | – | Attacks | 93.5 | – | 90.4 #16 |
| 62.6 #2 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.3 | – | 43.1 #16 |
| 551.1 #1 | – | Passes | 418.1 | – | 350.6 #18 |
| 1.1 #21 | – | Yellowcards | 1.8 | – | 1.4 #16 |
| – | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #1 |
| 1.1 #5 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 1.1 #5 |
| – #3 | – | Btts | 66.3 | – | – #19 |
| – #14 | – | Cleansheet | 21.1 | – | – #3 |
| – #9 | – | Draw | 28.9 | – | – #18 |
| 1.9 #4 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 2.0 #2 |
| 0.1 #7 | – | Expected goals difference | -0.1 | – | -0.2 #13 |
| – #18 | – | Failed to score | 21.0 | – | – #14 |
| 2.0 #4 | 2.8 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 #5 |
| 1.4 #12 | 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 #2 |
| 0.3 #1 | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.3 #1 |
| 7.4 #18 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 8.0 #13 |
| – #17 | – | Lost | 35.5 | – | – #7 |
| – | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.1 #4 |
| 6.9 #3 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #11 |
| 6.7 #1 | – | Shots blocked | 3.8 | – | 4.7 #4 |
| 11.1 #6 | – | Shots insidebox | 9.1 | – | 11.7 #3 |
| 5.9 #9 | – | Shots off target | 5.4 | – | 6.1 #7 |
| 6.7 #1 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 2.9 #22 |
| – #1 | – | Win | 35.6 | – | – #7 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 24.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 81 of 552
- Goals / match
- 2.86 (home 1.63 · away 1.23)
- Home / draw / away
- 42% · 28% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 67% · 63%
- Cards / match
- 3.74 (reds 0.02)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Middlesbrough · 2026/2027 · Championship
Rating 7.43 (98th pct) · G+A 2 + 1 (21% of team goals) · 83% of minutes
Rating 7.26 (94th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (7% of team goals) · 86% of minutes
Millwall · 2026/2027 · Championship
Rating 7.02 (85th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (15% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 7.03 (79th pct) · G+A 1 + 2 (23% of team goals) · 93% of minutes
Rating 7.15 (88th pct) · G+A 4 + 0 (31% of team goals) · 56% of minutes
Absences
Millwall
- injury Tristan Crama defender · Muscle Injury · 9 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 6
Venue
- Stadium
- Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
- Capacity
- 34,988
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 27,684
Teams
- Coaches
- Kim Hellberg · Alex Neil
- Position
- 4 · 13
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Robert Madley
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 14.7° (feels 14.3°)
- Wind
- 4.1
- Humidity
- 81%
Where to watch · 13
Denmark
Viaplay Denmark
England
Sky Sports+
Finland
Elisa Viihde Viaplay · V Sport 1 Finland
Iceland
Viaplay Iceland
Northern Ireland
Sky Sports+
Norway
Viaplay Norway
Republic of Ireland
Sky Sports+
Scotland
Sky Sports+
Sweden
V Sport 1 Sweden · Viaplay Sweden
United States
Paramount+
Wales
Sky Sports+
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham United |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Swansea City |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  West Bromwich Albion |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 5 |  Queens Park Rangers |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | WWLDD |
| 6 |  Charlton Athletic |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 | WDLDD |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers |
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 11 | WWLDW |
| 8 |  Lincoln City |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 9 |  Southampton (-4) |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 10 | WDDWW |
| 10 |  Birmingham City |
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 | WDDLW |
| 11 |  Millwall |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 | LLWLD |
| 12 |  Stoke City |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 13 |  Bristol City |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 | WWWLL |
| 14 |  Norwich City |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 15 |  Sheffield United |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | DWLWL |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 17 |  Watford |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | DLLWL |
| 18 |  Portsmouth |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | WLLWD |
| 19 |  Wrexham |
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | LWDDL |
| 20 |  Bolton Wanderers |
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 21 |  Cardiff City |
7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | DLLDL |
| 22 |  Derby County |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 23 |  Preston North End |
7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 24 |  Burnley |
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | LDLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 12 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Middlesbrough |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 | WDWWD |
| 3 | West Ham United |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 9 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Swansea City |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | WWDLW |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WDLDD |
| 7 | Watford |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 | DLLWL |
| 8 | Millwall |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | LLWLD |
| 9 | Stoke City |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | LWWDW |
| 10 | Norwich City |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Blackburn Rovers |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | LDLLW |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | LLLLW |
| 13 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | WWLDW |
| 14 | Queens Park Rangers |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | WWLDD |
| 15 | Sheffield United |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 | DWLWL |
| 16 | Birmingham City |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | WDDLW |
| 17 | Cardiff City |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 18 | Portsmouth |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | WLLWD |
| 19 | Bristol City |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | WWWLL |
| 20 | Preston North End |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 21 | Burnley |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 22 | Wrexham |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LWDDL |
| 23 | Lincoln City |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | WDDWW |
| 24 | Derby County |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln City |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Queens Park Rangers |
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | WWLDW |
| 4 | Birmingham City |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | WDDLW |
| 5 | Bristol City |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | WWWLL |
| 6 | Swansea City |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WWDLW |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | LDWWD |
| 8 | West Ham United |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | DWWWW |
| 9 | Sheffield United |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | DWLWL |
| 10 | Wrexham |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | LWDDL |
| 11 | Portsmouth |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WLLWD |
| 12 | Middlesbrough |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | WDWWD |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | WDLDD |
| 14 | Millwall |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 15 | Stoke City |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | LWWDW |
| 16 | Derby County |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Norwich City |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | WLWWL |
| 18 | Blackburn Rovers |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LDLLW |
| 19 | Southampton |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | WDDWW |
| 20 | Watford |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | DLLWL |
| 21 | Cardiff City |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | DLLDL |
| 22 | Bolton Wanderers |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLLW |
| 23 | Burnley |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LDLDL |
| 24 | Preston North End |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LLWLL |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-off
- Relegation
Middlesbrough
LWDWW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 7 · xG 8.76–6.33 · xPts 8.46
- W
H
Norwich City
4–3
xG 2.1–1.64
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Queens Park Rangers
1–0
xG 2.07–1.53
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Burnley
1–1
xG 1.01–0.9
UK CHAMP
- W
H
West Bromwich Albion
3–1
xG 2.01–1.32
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Blackburn Rovers
1–2
xG 1.57–0.94
UK CHAMP
LWLWDWW 4W 1D 2L · 13 pts (1.86 ppg) · GF 12 GA 9 · xG 12.41–8.43 · xPts 11.93
- W
H
Norwich City
4–3
xG 2.1–1.64
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Queens Park Rangers
1–0
xG 2.07–1.53
UK CHAMP
- D
A
Burnley
1–1
xG 1.01–0.9
UK CHAMP
- W
H
West Bromwich Albion
3–1
xG 2.01–1.32
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Blackburn Rovers
1–2
xG 1.57–0.94
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Lincoln City
2–1
xG 2.9–0.89
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Hull City
0–1
xG 0.75–1.22
UK CHAMP
Millwall
WLLWL 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 9 GA 11 · xG 9.51–7.42 · xPts 7.87
- L
A
Blackburn Rovers
1–3
xG 2.0–1.14
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Bolton Wanderers
4–0
xG 2.22–0.99
UK CHAMP
- L
H
Wrexham
0–3
xG 0.24–1.06
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Southampton
1–5
xG 1.52–3.23
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Norwich City
3–0
xG 3.53–1.0
UK CHAMP
WWLLWL 3W 0D 3L · 9 pts (1.5 ppg) · GF 11 GA 11 · xG 12.63–7.91 · xPts 10.6
- L
A
Blackburn Rovers
1–3
xG 2.0–1.14
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Bolton Wanderers
4–0
xG 2.22–0.99
UK CHAMP
- L
H
Wrexham
0–3
xG 0.24–1.06
UK CHAMP
- L
A
Southampton
1–5
xG 1.52–3.23
UK CHAMP
- W
H
Norwich City
3–0
xG 3.53–1.0
UK CHAMP
- W
A
Bristol City
2–0
xG 3.12–0.49
UK CHAMP
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
53.0%Middlesbrough P 68%23.6%Draw P 19%23.4%Millwall P 14%
Over / under 2.5
55.9%Over 2.5 P 62%44.1%Under 2.5 P 38%
Both teams to score
56.5%Yes43.5%No
Expected
- Middlesbrough goals
- 1.8 (0–4)
- Millwall goals
- 1.12 (0–3)
- Corners
- 11.58 (7–16)
- Cards
- 3.71 (1–6)
Earlier: day before — 53.0% / 23.6% / 23.4%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
51.7%Middlesbrough24.1%Draw24.2%Millwall
Over / under 2.5
55.0%Over 2.545.0%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
56.0%Yes44.0%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | draw | 1.444 | 0.919 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.581 | 0.389 |
| btts | yes | 0.57 | 0.378 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 29 matches since 2010
Goals 44–30 · 2.55 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 48%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 11–9 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 7–5 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- D Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Millwall 0–3 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Millwall 1–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Millwall 1–3 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Middlesbrough 0–1 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- W Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- L Millwall 2–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
- D Millwall 0–0 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
| Metric | Middlesbrough all · 7 | Middlesbrough at home · 4 | Millwall all · 7 | Millwall away · 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 7 | – | 7 | – |
| Points per game | 2.00 | – | 1.43 | – |
| W / D / L | 4 / 2 / 1 | – | 3 / 1 / 3 | – |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | – | 1.86 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.43 | – | 1.86 | – |
| Clean sheets | 14% | – | 43% | – |
| Failed to score | 0% | – | 14% | – |
| Both teams scored | 86% | – | 43% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | – | 86% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.91 | – | 2.00 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.23 | – | 1.38 | – |
| xG difference | 0.69 | – | 0.62 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.09 | – | -0.14 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.79 | – | 1.68 | – |
| Points vs xPts | 0.21 | – | -0.25 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 57% | – | 71% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.75 | – | 2.00 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 2.33 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Came back from behind | 75% | – | 0% | – |
| Leads held | 67% | – | 60% | – |
| Minutes leading | 38% | – | 37% | – |
| Minutes level | 40% | – | 38% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 22% | – | 25% | – |
| First goal (min) | 31 | – | 29 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 32 | – | 36 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 57% | – | 54% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 60% | – | 69% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.43 | – | 0.57 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.00 | – | 0.29 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 61% | – | 46% | – |
| Shots | 17.9 | – | 14.1 | – |
| On target | 5.3 | – | 3.7 | – |
| Shot conversion | 11% | – | 13% | – |
| Shots inside box | 62% | – | 80% | – |
| Big chances created | 3.7 | – | 2.9 | – |
| Corners | 6.1 | – | 4.4 | – |
| xG from set plays | 24% | – | 24% | – |
| Goals from headers | 14% | – | 17% | – |
| Pressure index | 17.7 | – | 11.5 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 63.0 | – | 48.1 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | – | 75% | – |
| Fouls | 9.6 | – | 11.1 | – |
| Cards | 1.14 | – | 1.57 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Middlesbrough
0–15'33
16–30'20
31–45'11
46–60'23
61–75'33
76–90'30
Millwall
0–15'20
16–30'12
31–45'32
46–60'34
61–75'03
76–90'42
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Middlesbrough · 7 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294
Game state
When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697
Situations
At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417
Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77
Millwall · 7 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217
Game state
When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546
Situations
Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035
Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14
Middlesbrough
Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 43% | 2.33 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.95 | 1.44 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 14% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 0.89 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 14% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.57 | 0.94 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 14% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.01 | 0.9 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 14% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.07 | 1.53 |
Millwall
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 43% | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 43% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.67 | 2.72 | 1.57 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 14% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1.06 |
| Metric | Middlesbrough all · 10 | Middlesbrough at home · 10 | Millwall all · 10 | Millwall away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| W / D / L | 4 / 3 / 3 | 5 / 3 / 2 | 4 / 2 / 4 | 3 / 5 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.90 | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Goals against / match | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | 50% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 30% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.73 | 2.21 | 1.86 | 1.66 |
| xG against / match | 1.29 | 0.99 | 1.30 | 1.71 |
| xG difference | 0.44 | 1.22 | 0.56 | -0.06 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.23 | -0.31 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| xPts / match | 1.64 | 2.11 | 1.66 | 1.41 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.14 | -0.31 | -0.26 | -0.01 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.40 | 2.00 | 2.17 | 1.75 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Came back from behind | 50% | 60% | 0% | 60% |
| Leads held | 57% | 71% | 67% | 60% |
| Minutes leading | 30% | 36% | 32% | 20% |
| Minutes level | 55% | 52% | 48% | 63% |
| Minutes trailing | 15% | 12% | 20% | 16% |
| First goal (min) | 28 | 34 | 30 | 42 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 41 | 47 | 42 | 46 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 53% | 63% | 53% | 62% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 67% | 73% | 64% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 60% | 64% | 51% | 47% |
| Shots | 17.8 | 20.7 | 14.5 | 15.0 |
| On target | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Shot conversion | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 69% | 74% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 6.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| xG from set plays | 25% | 35% | 26% | 28% |
| Goals from headers | 13% | 22% | 14% | 8% |
| Pressure index | 17.9 | 21.1 | 14.3 | 10.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 61.7 | 67.5 | 52.8 | 44.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 85% | 77% | 74% |
| Fouls | 9.5 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.90 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Middlesbrough
0–15'43
16–30'20
31–45'12
46–60'23
61–75'33
76–90'31
Millwall
0–15'20
16–30'12
31–45'42
46–60'44
61–75'04
76–90'43
Middlesbrough
Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 1.49 | 1.47 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 30% | 2.33 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.95 | 1.44 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.57 | 0.94 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 0.89 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.01 | 0.9 |
Millwall
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 1.33 | 1.5 | 1.17 | 1.69 | 1.2 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 30% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.67 | 2.72 | 1.57 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1.06 |
| Metric | Middlesbrough all · 52 | Middlesbrough at home · 26 | Millwall all · 51 | Millwall away · 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 52 | 26 | 51 | 26 |
| Points per game | 1.58 | 1.81 | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| W / D / L | 22 / 16 / 14 | 13 / 8 / 5 | 25 / 12 / 14 | 10 / 9 / 7 |
| Goals for / match | 1.52 | 1.65 | 1.45 | 1.31 |
| Goals against / match | 1.15 | 0.96 | 1.22 | 1.42 |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 31% | 41% | 31% |
| Failed to score | 25% | 27% | 18% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 58% | 49% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 54% | 53% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.65 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 1.49 |
| xG against / match | 1.13 | 1.04 | 1.40 | 1.62 |
| xG difference | 0.52 | 0.70 | 0.19 | -0.13 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.14 | -0.18 |
| xPts / match | 1.69 | 1.82 | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 52% | 46% | 55% | 46% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.19 | 2.58 | 2.46 | 2.25 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.90 | 1.20 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| Came back from behind | 46% | 54% | 36% | 42% |
| Leads held | 71% | 87% | 81% | 71% |
| Minutes leading | 32% | 32% | 29% | 21% |
| Minutes level | 48% | 50% | 52% | 57% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 18% | 19% | 22% |
| First goal (min) | 34 | 37 | 42 | 48 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 44 | 42 | 40 | 39 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 48% | 56% | 60% | 65% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 56% | 63% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| Late goals against | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 60% | 62% | 47% | 45% |
| Shots | 16.7 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| On target | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 9% | 11% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 64% | 64% | 71% | 70% |
| Big chances created | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Corners | 6.7 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| xG from set plays | 24% | 31% | 32% | 30% |
| Goals from headers | 13% | 14% | 17% | 16% |
| Pressure index | 20.1 | 21.9 | 11.8 | 9.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 63.2 | 63.6 | 44.4 | 39.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 85% | 71% | 70% |
| Fouls | 9.2 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 13.6 |
| Cards | 1.46 | 1.04 | 1.78 | 2.27 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Middlesbrough
0–15'1210
16–30'139
31–45'166
46–60'1310
61–75'1411
76–90'1113
Millwall
0–15'87
16–30'108
31–45'128
46–60'1313
61–75'119
76–90'2017
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Middlesbrough · 52 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.50) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.93
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.5052
Early press (0-15, level)+0.5852
Late push (76+, level)+0.2625
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.4615
Game state
When ahead+0.3831
When level+0.4452
When behind+0.8125
10 min after conceding+0.2039
10 min after scoring+0.9338
Situations
Against ten men-0.292
At home+0.4126
Away+0.5926
3 days rest or fewer+0.6117
4+ days rest+0.4535
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.4228
v bottom-tier opponents+0.6617
As favourite+0.5528
Evenly matched+0.4522
As underdog+0.322
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1852
Conceded when ahead-0.1331
Conceded late (76+)-0.1946
Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.06 · Behind vs level +0.36
Millwall · 51 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1051
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0851
Late push (76+, level)-0.2618
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.4011
Game state
When ahead+0.2131
When level+0.1451
When behind-0.2222
10 min after conceding-0.1830
10 min after scoring+0.4341
Situations
With ten men-0.043
Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.1325
Away+0.0726
3 days rest or fewer+0.0817
4+ days rest+0.1134
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.0226
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0919
As favourite+0.3716
Evenly matched-0.0422
As underdog-0.0313
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.1151
Conceded when ahead-0.0331
Conceded late (76+)-0.0945
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level +0.07 · Behind vs level -0.36
Middlesbrough
Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 27% | 2.43 | 2.21 | 1.0 | 1.63 | 1.2 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 11 21% | 1.0 | 0.91 | 1.09 | 1.68 | 1.29 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 10 19% | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.95 | 1.19 |
| 4-4-2 | 6 12% | 2.0 | 2.17 | 1.67 | 1.2 | 1.05 |
| 4-3-3 | 4 8% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.25 | 1.19 | 0.79 |
Millwall
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 42 82% | 1.74 | 1.48 | 1.17 | 1.58 | 1.31 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 6% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.67 | 2.72 | 1.57 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 2 4% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.25 | 2.23 |
| 4-3-1-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.07 | 3.62 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1.06 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 3.1d before kick-off · 80 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: home +2.2 pts at 3.1d
1.43Home 68% ▲ +9.7 ptsopened 1.645.1Draw 19% ▼ -3.7 ptsopened 4.197.13Away 14% ▼ -6.0 ptsopened 4.84
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.43 ▲ +9.7 | 5.1 ▼ -3.7 | 7.13 ▼ -6.0 | 5m |
| bet365 | 1.42 ▲ +8.8 | 4.75 ▼ -3.8 | 7.0 ▼ -5.0 | 5m |
| Betfair | 1.4 ▲ +7.0 | 4.75 ▼ -2.6 | 6.5 ▼ -4.3 | 5m |
| BetVictor | 1.4 ▲ +8.3 | 5.0 ▼ -3.5 | 7.0 ▼ -4.8 | 5m |
| Coral | 1.44 ▲ +7.6 | 5.0 ▼ -3.4 | 6.5 ▼ -4.2 | 5m |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 ▲ +8.1 | 5.0 ▼ -3.2 | 6.5 ▼ -4.8 | 5m |
| Unibet | 1.91 · +0.0 | 3.55 · +0.0 | 3.75 · +0.0 | 5m |
| WilliamHill | 1.4 ▲ +8.8 | 4.6 ▼ -3.7 | 6.5 ▼ -5.1 | 5m |
Unibet (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off
1.71Yes 54% · +0.0 ptsopened 1.712.02No 46% · +0.0 ptsopened 2.02
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.71 · +0.0 | 2.02 · +0.0 | 5m |
| bet365 | 1.72 · +0.0 | 2.0 · +0.0 | 5m |
| Betfair | 1.65 · +0.0 | 2.2 · +0.0 | 5m |
| BetVictor | 1.67 ▼ -1.9 | 2.05 ▲ +1.9 | 5m |
| WilliamHill | 1.67 ▼ -1.3 | 2.1 ▲ +1.3 | 5m |
Pinnacle · opened 3.1d before kick-off · 79 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: over +1.6 pts at 9.8h
1.55Over 62% ▲ +3.6 ptsopened 1.622.57Under 38% ▼ -3.6 ptsopened 2.31
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.55 ▲ +3.6 | 2.57 ▼ -3.6 | 5m |
| bet365 | 1.53 ▲ +7.1 | 2.5 ▼ -7.1 | 5m |
| Betfair | 1.5 ▲ +3.5 | 2.5 ▼ -3.5 | 5m |
| BetVictor | 1.5 ▲ +3.4 | 2.36 ▼ -3.4 | 5m |
| Unibet | 1.82 · +0.0 | 1.91 · +0.0 | 5m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.42Home 67% P 68%4.75Draw 20% P 19%7.0Away 14% P 14%
Double Chance
1.11Middlesbrough or Draw 42%1.18Middlesbrough or Millwall 40%2.62Draw or Millwall 18%
Draw No Bet
1.141 83%5.52 17%
Both Teams To Score
1.72Yes 54%2.0No 46%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.53Over 62% P 62%2.5Under 38% P 38%
Total Corners
15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%
Number of Cards
3.51.9Over 49% P 49%1.8Under 51% P 51%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 67.5–70% · away 12.5–15% · 243 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 68% | 68% | 68% | -0.1 |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 18% | -0.3 |
| Away | 14% | 13% | 14% | +0.4 |
In those fixtures: 3.4 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 65%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 61% | 63% | +1.5 |
Robert Madley
- Career
- 227 matches · 17 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.67 (3.49 yellow · 0.1 red)
- Fouls / match
- 17.7 · 4.1 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.24
- Cards to home side
- 46%
Style in Championship (5-year window · 63 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.68 | 4.05 | +1.14 | 94 |
| Fouls / match | 21.4 | 21.8 | -0.39 | |
| Fouls per card | 4.7 | 5.4 | -1.33 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.17 | 0.17 | -0.05 | 51 |
| Time added | 8.3 | 7.2 | +1.26 | 92 |
- First card
- 37' on average
- Card timing
- 15% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 48% (league 45%)
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 5 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 45' | 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 7' | 4 |
| 2026-08-15 · Middlesbrough | 2 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 36' | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 82' | 5 |
| 2026-04-11 | 8 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 31' | 8 |
| 2025-11-05 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 11' | 5 |
| 2025-10-25 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 19' | 13 |
| 2025-10-18 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 54' | 8 |
| 2025-10-03 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 83' | 8 |
| 2025-09-27 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 30' | 7 |