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Championship · Matchweek 5

Momentum

Swansea CityWrexham
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Capacity
20,827
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,056

Teams

Coaches
Vítor Matos · Phil Parkinson
Position
1 · 15
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Elliot Bell

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
14.1° (feels 13.7°)
Wind
0.6
Humidity
80%

Where to watch · 31

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Swansea City

WDWW 3W 1D 0L · 10 pts (2.5 ppg) · GF 7 GA 1 · xG 7.69–4.64 · xPts 6.98

  • W H Watford 2–0 xG 3.08–1.11 UK CHAMP
  • W A Derby County 3–0 xG 2.96–0.82 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield United 0–0 xG 0.67–1.82 UK CHAMP
  • W A Stoke City 2–1 xG 0.97–0.89 UK CHAMP

Wrexham

DDLW 1W 2D 1L · 5 pts (1.25 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4 · xG 6.46–3.75 · xPts 7.51

  • W A Millwall 3–0 xG 1.06–0.24 UK CHAMP
  • L H Birmingham City 1–2 xG 1.88–1.89 UK CHAMP
  • D H Watford 1–1 xG 1.83–0.55 UK CHAMP
  • D A Cardiff City 1–1 xG 1.69–1.07 UK CHAMP

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Swansea City 11 draws1 Wrexham

Goals 2–3 · 1.67 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Swansea City 11 draws1 Wrexham

Goals 2–3 · 1.67 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Swansea City 11 draws1 Wrexham

Goals 2–3 · 1.67 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • D Swansea City 0–0 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Wrexham 2–0 Swansea City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Swansea City 2–1 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricSwansea City all · 7Swansea City at home · 4Wrexham all · 7Wrexham away · 4
Results
Matches77
Points per game2.001.00
W / D / L4 / 2 / 11 / 4 / 2
Goals for / match1.571.00
Goals against / match0.711.57
Clean sheets57%29%
Failed to score29%29%
Both teams scored43%57%
Over 2.557%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.621.37
xG against / match1.221.24
xG difference0.400.13
Finishing vs xG-0.05-0.37
xPts / match1.561.52
Points vs xPts0.44-0.52
Game state
Scored first43%29%
PPG when scoring first3.002.00
PPG when conceding first1.500.50
Came back from behind50%50%
Leads held100%50%
Minutes leading43%24%
Minutes level42%50%
Minutes trailing15%26%
First goal (min)1932
First goal conceded (min)2634
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half36%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half40%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.140.00
Late goals against0.140.43
Style
Possession58%51%
Shots12.411.3
On target5.13.4
Shot conversion13%9%
Shots inside box61%77%
Big chances created2.82.0
Corners4.75.1
xG from set plays34%30%
Goals from headers0%14%
Pressure index12.110.9
Dominant minutes51.047.6
Pass accuracy82%81%
Fouls9.111.3
Cards1.861.14

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Swansea City

0–15'32
16–30'20
31–45'21
46–60'11
61–75'20
76–90'11

Wrexham

0–15'12
16–30'22
31–45'01
46–60'31
61–75'12
76–90'03

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Swansea City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.35

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.047
Early press (0-15, level)+0.097
Late push (76+, level)-0.222

Game state

When ahead+0.214
When level-0.097
When behind-0.102
10 min after conceding-0.093
10 min after scoring+0.355

Situations

At home-0.024
Away+0.123
3 days rest or fewer-0.092
4+ days rest+0.095

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.083
v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.002
Evenly matched+0.114

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.017
Conceded when ahead-0.074
Conceded late (76+)-0.237

Congested vs rested -0.18 · Ahead vs level +0.30 · Behind vs level -0.01

Wrexham · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.16

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.122
When level+0.017
When behind-0.034
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.135

Situations

At home+0.053
Away+0.004
3 days rest or fewer+0.073
4+ days rest-0.014

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.103
v bottom-tier opponents+0.163
As favourite+0.053
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.087
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.165

Congested vs rested +0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level -0.04

Swansea City

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-34 57%1.751.751.01.661.18
4-1-4-12 29%3.02.00.52.031.0
4-2-3-11 14%1.00.00.00.671.82

Wrexham

Current: winless 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 86%1.01.01.671.321.27
5-4-11 14%1.01.01.01.691.07

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 3.0d before kick-off · 77 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.6 pts at 14.0h · late move: home +2.7 pts inside the final hour

2.26Home 43% ▼ -1.4 ptsopened 2.133.44Draw 28% ▲ +1.2 ptsopened 3.53.34Away 29% · +0.1 ptsopened 3.26
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.26 ▼ -1.43.44 ▲ +1.23.34 · +0.110m
bet3652.15 ▲ +6.73.25 · -0.03.4 ▼ -6.610m
Betfair2.2 ▲ +5.63.4 · +0.33.3 ▼ -6.010m
BetVictor2.3 · +0.53.3 · +0.53.2 · -1.010m
Coral2.25 ▲ +4.43.3 · +1.03.2 ▼ -5.310m
Ladbrokes2.25 ▲ +4.03.3 · +0.73.1 ▼ -4.610m
Unibet2.18 ▲ +3.03.35 · -0.53.15 ▼ -2.610m
WilliamHill2.3 ▲ +3.13.2 · +0.43.0 ▼ -3.510m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.15Home 44% P 43%3.25Draw 29% P 28%3.4Away 28% P 29%

Double Chance

1.36Swansea or Draw 35%1.36Swansea or Wrexham 35%1.53Draw or Wrexham 31%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54%2.0No 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 55%2.1Under 44% P 45%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 27.5–30% · 766 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home43%44%43%-0.3
Draw28%28%30%+2.4
Away29%29%26%-2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.547%46%45%-1.2

Elliot Bell

Career
25 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.6 (4.48 yellow · 0.04 red)
Fouls / match
24.2 · 5.0 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.04
Cards to home side
55%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.64.05+0.9986
Fouls / match22.421.8+0.44
Fouls per card4.95.4-1.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.050.17-1.792
Time added8.37.2+1.2692
First card
39' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 38% in last 15'
Cards to home side
56% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-29 71 190 16'7
2026-08-22 50 210 14'9
2026-04-21 70 240 28'8
2026-04-06 30 280 3'10
2026-03-10 60 230 31'12
2026-03-03 70 290 13'7
2026-02-07 40 200 53'8
2026-01-20 40 220 14'5
2026-01-11 · Swansea City 40 230 55'6
2025-12-20 30 220 31'10