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Championship · Matchweek 5

Momentum

Stoke CityCHA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke
Capacity
30,089
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,071

Teams

Coaches
Mark Robins · Nathan Jones
Position
22 · 3
Formation
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robert Madley

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
18.5° (feels 18.4°)
Wind
1.1
Humidity
75%

Where to watch · 12

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Stoke City

LLLW 1W 0D 3L · 3 pts (0.75 ppg) · GF 4 GA 9 · xG 2.67–6.75 · xPts 2.84

  • W H Norwich City 1–0 xG 0.25–1.03 UK CHAMP
  • L A Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–4 xG 0.7–2.44 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 1–3 xG 0.83–2.31 UK CHAMP
  • L H Swansea City 1–2 xG 0.89–0.97 UK CHAMP

Charlton Athletic

WWWD 3W 1D 0L · 10 pts (2.5 ppg) · GF 6 GA 3 · xG 3.61–6.71 · xPts 3.92

  • D A West Bromwich Albion 1–1 xG 0.49–0.82 UK CHAMP
  • W H Preston North End 1–0 xG 1.03–0.96 UK CHAMP
  • W A West Ham United 2–1 xG 0.71–3.45 UK CHAMP
  • W H Derby County 2–1 xG 1.37–1.48 UK CHAMP

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 7 matches since 2007

Stoke City 40 draws3 Charlton Athletic

Goals 13–7 · 2.86 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 71%

Last 10 · 7 matches

Stoke City 40 draws3 Charlton Athletic

Goals 13–7 · 2.86 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 71%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Stoke City 30 draws2 Charlton Athletic

Goals 11–5 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Stoke City 4–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Charlton Athletic 1–0 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 3–0 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 3–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Charlton Athletic 3–1 Stoke City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Charlton Athletic 1–0 Stoke City neutral UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Stoke City 2–1 Charlton Athletic UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricStoke City all · 7Stoke City at home · 3Charlton Athletic all · 7Charlton Athletic away · 3
Results
Matches77
Points per game1.431.71
W / D / L3 / 1 / 33 / 3 / 1
Goals for / match1.570.86
Goals against / match1.571.00
Clean sheets29%43%
Failed to score0%43%
Both teams scored71%43%
Over 2.571%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.040.85
xG against / match1.501.46
xG difference-0.45-0.62
Finishing vs xG0.530.01
xPts / match1.131.05
Points vs xPts0.300.67
Game state
Scored first86%29%
PPG when scoring first1.673.00
PPG when conceding first0.001.33
Came back from behind0%67%
Leads held50%100%
Minutes leading42%20%
Minutes level40%60%
Minutes trailing18%20%
First goal (min)1948
First goal conceded (min)4043
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half9%83%
Goals conceded in 2nd half64%29%
Late goals for (76'+)0.000.14
Late goals against0.570.00
Style
Possession44%38%
Shots11.910.3
On target4.02.6
Shot conversion13%8%
Shots inside box68%58%
Big chances created1.30.6
Corners4.04.9
xG from set plays20%40%
Goals from headers9%17%
Pressure index11.68.8
Dominant minutes47.040.1
Pass accuracy77%76%
Fouls15.710.7
Cards2.711.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Stoke City

0–15'41
16–30'43
31–45'20
46–60'11
61–75'02
76–90'04

Charlton Athletic

0–15'11
16–30'03
31–45'01
46–60'21
61–75'21
76–90'10

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Stoke City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.10) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.107
Early press (0-15, level)+0.177
Late push (76+, level)-0.442
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453

Game state

When ahead+0.166
When level+0.057
When behind+0.113
10 min after conceding-0.265
10 min after scoring+0.807

Situations

At home-0.273
Away+0.314
3 days rest or fewer-0.222
4+ days rest+0.255

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.154
v bottom-tier opponents+0.543
Evenly matched+0.362
As underdog-0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.016
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested -0.47 · Ahead vs level +0.10 · Behind vs level +0.05

Charlton Athletic · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.11) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.57

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.117
Early press (0-15, level)+0.437
Late push (76+, level)-0.354

Game state

When ahead-0.333
When level-0.027
When behind-0.113
10 min after conceding-0.574
10 min after scoring+0.044

Situations

At home-0.034
Away-0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.342
4+ days rest-0.225

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.372
v bottom-tier opponents+0.154
Evenly matched+0.182
As underdog-0.304

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.447
Conceded when ahead+0.363
Conceded late (76+)+0.096

Congested vs rested +0.56 · Ahead vs level -0.30 · Behind vs level -0.09

Stoke City

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 43%0.01.03.00.811.91
3-5-22 29%2.02.50.51.551.64
3-4-31 14%3.01.00.00.251.03
3-4-2-11 14%3.02.01.01.530.43

Charlton Athletic

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 4 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 100%1.710.861.00.851.46

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 2.6d before kick-off · 70 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off

2.14Home 45% · +0.3 ptsopened 2.13.32Draw 29% · +0.5 ptsopened 3.33.75Away 26% · -0.8 ptsopened 3.55
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.14 · +0.33.32 · +0.53.75 · -0.810m
bet3651.95 ▲ +4.33.3 ▼ -1.33.9 ▼ -3.010m
Betfair2.1 · +0.43.4 · -0.63.5 · +0.210m
BetVictor2.1 ▲ +1.23.25 · -0.33.6 · -0.810m
Coral2.1 ▲ +1.13.25 · -0.43.6 · -0.710m
Ladbrokes2.1 ▲ +1.13.25 · -0.43.6 · -0.710m
Unibet2.04 · -0.03.2 · +0.43.7 · -0.410m
WilliamHill2.1 ▲ +1.03.1 ▼ -1.03.5 · -0.010m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.95Home 48% P 45%3.3Draw 28% P 29%3.9Away 24% P 26%

Double Chance

1.28Stoke or Draw 37%1.33Stoke or Charlton 35%1.7Draw or Charlton 28%

Draw No Bet

1.41 66%2.752 34%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49%1.8No 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 42%1.66Under 57% P 58%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 59%2.1Under 44% P 41%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home45%46%44%-1.8
Draw29%28%30%+1.8
Away26%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 40–42.5% · 2,093 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.542%41%41%-0.4

Robert Madley

Career
227 matches · 17 seasons
Cards / match
3.67 (3.49 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
17.7 · 4.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.24
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 63 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.684.05+1.1494
Fouls / match21.421.8-0.39
Fouls per card4.75.4-1.33 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.170.17-0.0551
Time added8.37.2+1.2692
First card
37' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 27% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-29 40 170 7'4
2026-08-15 20 240 36'13
2026-04-25 10 270 82'5
2026-04-11 · Stoke City 81 190 31'8
2025-11-05 60 170 11'5
2025-10-25 31 200 19'13
2025-10-18 10 130 54'8
2025-10-03 20 120 83'8
2025-09-27 50 190 30'7
2025-09-13 · Charlton Athletic 41 300 54'8