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Championship · Matchweek 5

Momentum

PortsmouthCardiff City
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Capacity
20,688
Surface
grass
Attendance
20,459

Teams

Coaches
John Mousinho · Brian Barry-Murphy
Position
22 · 20
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Ben Speedie

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
21.4° (feels 21.1°)
Wind
2.7
Humidity
58%

Where to watch · 5

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Portsmouth

LWLL 1W 0D 3L · 3 pts (0.75 ppg) · GF 5 GA 8 · xG 5.7–6.0 · xPts 5.47

  • L H Derby County 0–2 xG 1.02–0.9 UK CHAMP
  • L A Bristol City 1–2 xG 1.53–0.83 UK CHAMP
  • W A Lincoln City 3–1 xG 1.38–2.34 UK CHAMP
  • L H Queens Park Rangers 1–3 xG 1.78–1.93 UK CHAMP

Cardiff City

DDDL 0W 3D 1L · 3 pts (0.75 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 6.91–7.11 · xPts 5.33

  • L A Queens Park Rangers 1–2 xG 0.64–2.2 UK CHAMP
  • D H Sheffield United 2–2 xG 2.55–1.4 UK CHAMP
  • D A Derby County 2–2 xG 2.64–1.81 UK CHAMP
  • D H Wrexham 1–1 xG 1.07–1.69 UK CHAMP

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 8 matches since 2008

Portsmouth 31 draws4 Cardiff City

Goals 8–12 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 38%

Last 10 · 8 matches

Portsmouth 31 draws4 Cardiff City

Goals 8–12 · 2.5 per match · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 38%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Portsmouth 21 draws2 Cardiff City

Goals 7–7 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Portsmouth 2–0 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Portsmouth 2–1 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Cardiff City 2–0 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Cardiff City 3–2 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Portsmouth 1–1 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Cardiff City 3–0 Portsmouth UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Portsmouth 0–2 Cardiff City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Cardiff City 0–1 Portsmouth UK FA Cup · Final
MetricPortsmouth all · 6Portsmouth at home · 3Cardiff City all · 7Cardiff City away · 4
Results
Matches67
Points per game1.170.57
W / D / L2 / 1 / 30 / 4 / 3
Goals for / match1.171.00
Goals against / match1.331.57
Clean sheets33%0%
Failed to score33%29%
Both teams scored50%71%
Over 2.550%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.311.89
xG against / match1.361.46
xG difference-0.050.43
Finishing vs xG-0.15-0.89
xPts / match1.351.62
Points vs xPts-0.18-1.05
Game state
Scored first50%29%
PPG when scoring first2.001.00
PPG when conceding first0.000.40
Came back from behind0%50%
Leads held67%0%
Minutes leading30%3%
Minutes level36%54%
Minutes trailing34%43%
First goal (min)3650
First goal conceded (min)2830
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half43%43%
Goals conceded in 2nd half25%36%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.14
Late goals against0.000.14
Style
Possession54%65%
Shots14.717.9
On target4.26.4
Shot conversion8%6%
Shots inside box57%70%
Big chances created1.32.3
Corners6.78.1
xG from set plays43%32%
Goals from headers14%14%
Pressure index11.517.7
Dominant minutes50.859.4
Pass accuracy76%85%
Fouls9.39.6
Cards0.501.71

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Portsmouth

0–15'20
16–30'11
31–45'15
46–60'11
61–75'11
76–90'10

Cardiff City

0–15'13
16–30'12
31–45'22
46–60'03
61–75'20
76–90'11

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Portsmouth · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.016
Early press (0-15, level)-0.056
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.163
When level+0.056
When behind-0.153
10 min after conceding-0.104
10 min after scoring+0.024

Situations

At home-0.013
Away+0.033
4+ days rest-0.015

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.052
v bottom-tier opponents+0.044
Evenly matched-0.004

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.013
Conceded late (76+)-0.286

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level +0.11 · Behind vs level -0.20

Cardiff City · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.69

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.597
Late push (76+, level)+0.615
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.234

Game state

When ahead+0.252
When level+0.567
When behind+0.186
10 min after conceding+0.187
10 min after scoring+0.695

Situations

At home+0.323
Away+0.434
3 days rest or fewer+0.452
4+ days rest+0.365

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.233
v bottom-tier opponents+0.504
Evenly matched+0.394
As underdog+0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead-0.482
Conceded late (76+)-0.227

Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.31 · Behind vs level -0.38

Portsmouth

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%1.171.171.331.311.36

Cardiff City

Current: winless 16 · conceding 9

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 57%0.50.751.52.211.13
4-1-4-13 43%0.671.331.671.451.9

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 2.8d before kick-off · 72 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off

2.38Home 41% ▲ +1.0 ptsopened 2.383.69Draw 26% · -0.3 ptsopened 3.562.92Away 33% · -0.8 ptsopened 2.78
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.38 ▲ +1.03.69 · -0.32.92 · -0.810m
bet3652.45 ▲ +2.03.4 ▼ -1.32.8 · -0.710m
Betfair2.38 ▲ +2.33.5 ▼ -1.42.8 · -0.910m
BetVictor2.38 · +0.13.6 ▼ -1.32.8 ▲ +1.210m
Coral2.3 ▲ +4.43.6 ▼ -2.62.87 ▼ -1.710m
Ladbrokes2.3 ▲ +3.33.6 ▼ -2.82.8 · -0.610m
Unibet2.25 ▲ +1.33.45 ▼ -1.32.95 · -0.110m
WilliamHill2.3 ▲ +3.23.4 ▼ -2.62.75 · -0.610m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 39% P 41%3.4Draw 28% P 26%2.8Away 34% P 33%

Double Chance

1.4Portsmouth or Draw 34%1.3Portsmouth or Cardiff 36%1.57Draw or Cardiff 30%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 57%2.2Under 43% P 43%

Total Corners

17.0Under 6 5%4.336 - 8 20%2.759 - 11 32%3.412 - 14 26%5.5Over 14 16%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59% P 63%2.25Under 41% P 37%
3.52.0Over 46% P 42%1.72Under 54% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 32.5–35% · 189 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%40%-0.7
Draw26%26%22%-4.0
Away33%33%38%+4.7

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 55%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.557%56%56%-0.2

Ben Speedie

Career
30 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
3.07 (2.97 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
21.6 · 6.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.03
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 12 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.04.05-1.910
Fouls / match20.121.8-1.56
Fouls per card7.35.4+2.55 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.080.17-1.338
Time added8.07.2+0.9178
First card
45' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
33% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-29 30 210 30'6
2026-08-15 30 230 60'11
2026-04-03 50 160 15'11
2026-03-11 40 240 50'10
2026-02-13 10 150 83'6
2026-01-24 19 6
2026-01-09 40 210 25'15
2025-12-05 40 170 53'7
2025-09-27 20 230 75'8
2025-09-13 10 150 82'9