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Championship · Matchweek 4

Momentum

MillwallWrexham
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
The Den, London
Capacity
20,146
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Alex Neil · Phil Parkinson
Position
9 · 22
Formation
3-1-4-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Oliver Langford

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
19.4° (feels 19.6°)
Wind
6.2
Humidity
86%

Where to watch · 14

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Millwall

DLWWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 7 · xG 9.96–7.12 · xPts 8.3

  • L A Southampton 1–5 xG 1.52–3.23 UK CHAMP
  • W H Norwich City 3–0 xG 3.53–1.0 UK CHAMP
  • W A Bristol City 2–0 xG 3.12–0.49 UK CHAMP
  • L H Hull City 0–2 xG 1.02–1.93 UK CHAMP
  • D A Hull City 0–0 xG 0.76–0.46 UK CHAMP

Wrexham

DDL 0W 2D 1L · 2 pts (0.67 ppg) · GF 3 GA 4 · xG 5.4–3.51 · xPts 5.45

  • L H Birmingham City 1–2 xG 1.88–1.89 UK CHAMP
  • D H Watford 1–1 xG 1.83–0.55 UK CHAMP
  • D A Cardiff City 1–1 xG 1.69–1.07 UK CHAMP

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Millwall 10 draws2 Wrexham

Goals 2–5 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Millwall 10 draws2 Wrexham

Goals 2–5 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 33%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Millwall 10 draws2 Wrexham

Goals 2–5 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 0% · over 2.5 33%

Recent meetings

  • L Millwall 0–3 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Wrexham 0–2 Millwall UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Millwall 0–2 Wrexham UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricMillwall all · 7Millwall at home · 3Wrexham all · 7Wrexham away · 4
Results
Matches77
Points per game1.431.00
W / D / L3 / 1 / 31 / 4 / 2
Goals for / match1.861.00
Goals against / match1.861.57
Clean sheets43%29%
Failed to score14%29%
Both teams scored43%57%
Over 2.586%43%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.001.37
xG against / match1.381.24
xG difference0.620.13
Finishing vs xG-0.14-0.37
xPts / match1.681.52
Points vs xPts-0.25-0.52
Game state
Scored first71%29%
PPG when scoring first2.002.00
PPG when conceding first0.000.50
Came back from behind0%50%
Leads held60%50%
Minutes leading37%24%
Minutes level38%50%
Minutes trailing25%26%
First goal (min)2932
First goal conceded (min)3634
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half69%54%
Late goals for (76'+)0.570.00
Late goals against0.290.43
Style
Possession46%51%
Shots14.111.3
On target3.73.4
Shot conversion13%9%
Shots inside box80%77%
Big chances created2.92.0
Corners4.45.1
xG from set plays24%30%
Goals from headers17%14%
Pressure index11.510.9
Dominant minutes48.147.6
Pass accuracy75%81%
Fouls11.111.3
Cards1.571.14

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Millwall

0–15'20
16–30'12
31–45'32
46–60'34
61–75'03
76–90'42

Wrexham

0–15'12
16–30'22
31–45'01
46–60'31
61–75'12
76–90'03

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Millwall · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.01) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.54

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.017
Early press (0-15, level)+0.217

Game state

When ahead+0.045
When level+0.017
When behind-0.133
10 min after conceding-0.344
10 min after scoring+0.546

Situations

Against ten men-0.122
At home+0.043
Away-0.044
3 days rest or fewer-0.322
4+ days rest+0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.054
v bottom-tier opponents-0.073
Evenly matched+0.104
As underdog-0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.257
Conceded when ahead+0.275
Conceded late (76+)-0.035

Congested vs rested -0.45 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.14

Wrexham · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.02) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.16

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.044

Game state

When ahead+0.122
When level+0.017
When behind-0.034
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.135

Situations

At home+0.053
Away+0.004
3 days rest or fewer+0.073
4+ days rest-0.014

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.103
v bottom-tier opponents+0.163
As favourite+0.053
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.087
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.165

Congested vs rested +0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.12 · Behind vs level -0.04

Millwall

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 43%1.332.331.671.861.29
4-3-33 43%2.02.01.672.721.57
3-1-4-21 14%0.00.03.00.241.06

Wrexham

Current: winless 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-16 86%1.01.01.671.321.27
5-4-11 14%1.01.01.01.691.07

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 4.1d before kick-off · 104 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.8 pts at 2.1d

2.38Home 41% ▼ -4.4 ptsopened 2.093.44Draw 28% · +0.3 ptsopened 3.383.1Away 31% ▲ +4.1 ptsopened 3.47
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.38 ▼ -4.43.44 · +0.33.1 ▲ +4.15m
bet3652.3 ▼ -7.93.1 ▲ +3.13.3 ▲ +4.85m
Betfair2.25 ▼ -6.93.4 ▲ +1.93.2 ▲ +5.05m
BetVictor2.3 ▼ -3.73.4 · -0.03.0 ▲ +3.75m
Coral2.25 ▼ -2.23.3 · +0.73.2 ▲ +1.65m
Ladbrokes2.25 ▼ -2.83.3 · +0.13.1 ▲ +2.75m
Unibet2.17 · -1.03.35 · -0.43.2 ▲ +1.35m
WilliamHill2.3 ▼ -8.03.25 ▲ +1.43.0 ▲ +6.65m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.3Home 41% P 41%3.1Draw 30% P 28%3.3Away 29% P 31%

Double Chance

1.36Millwall or Draw 35%1.36Millwall or Wrexham 35%1.57Draw or Wrexham 30%

Draw No Bet

1.611 58%2.22 42%

Both Teams To Score

1.72Yes 54%2.0No 46%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 49%1.8Under 53% P 51%

Total Corners

17.0Under 6 5%4.56 - 8 20%2.759 - 11 32%3.2512 - 14 27%5.5Over 14 16%

Number of Cards

2.51.57Over 59% P 62%2.25Under 41% P 38%
3.52.25Over 41% P 41%1.57Under 59% P 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%41%-0.1
Draw28%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.549%49%50%+1.3

Oliver Langford

Career
352 matches · 18 seasons
Cards / match
3.36 (3.22 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
20.8 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 118 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.84.05-0.4626
Fouls / match20.821.8-0.97
Fouls per card5.65.4+0.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.3533
Time added7.57.2+0.3357
First card
35' on average
Card timing
17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
41% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-15 40 230 36'8
2026-05-02 · Wrexham 16 8
2026-04-18 40 100 18'8
2026-04-03 10 201 12'5
2026-03-21 20 150 24'5
2026-03-07 30 180 33'6
2026-02-24 10 180 16'8
2026-02-21 40 200 39'6
2026-02-07 20 180 81'12
2026-01-24 · Wrexham 51 260 12'6