KickoffDNA
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Championship · Matchweek 4
BurnleyBurnley
1–1
FT
MiddlesbroughMID

Momentum

– BurnleyMID –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Turf Moor, Burnley
Capacity
22,546
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Nicky Hayen · Kim Hellberg
Position
23 · 6
Formation
4-3-2-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Matt Donohue

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
17.2° (feels 17.5°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
95%

Where to watch · 207

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Burnley

LDDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 6.89–9.61 · xPts 5.05

  • L A Norwich City 1–4 xG 1.13–2.33 UK CHAMP
  • L A West Bromwich Albion 1–3 xG 1.1–2.02 UK CHAMP
  • D H West Ham United 2–2 xG 2.99–1.55 UK CHAMP
  • D H Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–1 xG 1.28–2.31 UK PL
  • L A Arsenal 0–1 xG 0.39–1.4 UK PL

Middlesbrough

LLWLW 2W 0D 3L · 6 pts (1.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 8.15–6.76 · xPts 7.66

  • W H West Bromwich Albion 3–1 xG 2.01–1.32 UK CHAMP
  • L A Blackburn Rovers 1–2 xG 1.57–0.94 UK CHAMP
  • W H Lincoln City 2–1 xG 2.9–0.89 UK CHAMP
  • L A Hull City 0–1 xG 0.75–1.22 UK CHAMP
  • L A Southampton 1–2 aet xG 0.92–2.4 UK CHAMP

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 18 matches since 2010

Burnley 66 draws6 Middlesbrough

Goals 19–17 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 33%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Burnley 45 draws1 Middlesbrough

Goals 11–7 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Burnley 23 draws0 Middlesbrough

Goals 7–4 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • D Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 0–0 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 1–2 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Burnley 3–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Middlesbrough 0–0 Burnley UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Burnley 1–0 Middlesbrough UK PL · Regular Season
  • D Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Middlesbrough 1–2 Burnley UK FA Cup · 3rd Round
  • L Middlesbrough 1–0 Burnley UK CHAMP · Regular Season
MetricBurnley all · 7Burnley at home · 3Middlesbrough all · 7Middlesbrough away · 3
Results
Matches7–7–
Points per game0.43–2.00–
W / D / L0 / 3 / 4–4 / 2 / 1–
Goals for / match1.14–2.00–
Goals against / match2.29–1.43–
Clean sheets0%–14%–
Failed to score0%–0%–
Both teams scored100%–86%–
Over 2.571%–71%–
Expected goals
xG for / match1.32–1.91–
xG against / match1.58–1.23–
xG difference-0.26–0.69–
Finishing vs xG-0.18–0.09–
xPts / match1.17–1.79–
Points vs xPts-0.74–0.21–
Game state
Scored first43%–57%–
PPG when scoring first0.33–1.75–
PPG when conceding first0.50–2.33–
Came back from behind33%–75%–
Leads held0%–67%–
Minutes leading10%–38%–
Minutes level39%–40%–
Minutes trailing51%–22%–
First goal (min)45–31–
First goal conceded (min)29–32–
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half62%–57%–
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%–60%–
Late goals for (76'+)0.29–0.43–
Late goals against0.29–0.00–
Style
Possession50%–61%–
Shots14.4–17.9–
On target4.0–5.3–
Shot conversion8%–11%–
Shots inside box57%–62%–
Big chances created2.3–3.7–
Corners5.0–6.1–
xG from set plays24%–24%–
Goals from headers0%–14%–
Pressure index9.5–17.7–
Dominant minutes43.6–63.0–
Pass accuracy83%–88%–
Fouls10.6–9.6–
Cards2.29–1.14–

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Burnley

0–15'14
16–30'23
31–45'01
46–60'32
61–75'04
76–90'22

Middlesbrough

0–15'33
16–30'20
31–45'11
46–60'23
61–75'33
76–90'30

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Burnley · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.40

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.067
Early press (0-15, level)-0.227
Late push (76+, level)-0.404
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.224

Game state

When ahead+0.123
When level-0.117
When behind-0.066
10 min after conceding-0.167
10 min after scoring+0.197

Situations

At home-0.213
Away+0.064
3 days rest or fewer-0.052
4+ days rest-0.075

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.045
Evenly matched-0.173
As underdog+0.103

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.167
Conceded when ahead+0.533
Conceded late (76+)+0.326

Congested vs rested +0.02 · Ahead vs level +0.23 · Behind vs level +0.05

Middlesbrough · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: when behind +1.00

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+0.294

Game state

When ahead+0.196
When level+0.237
When behind+1.004
10 min after conceding+0.276
10 min after scoring+0.697

Situations

At home+0.464
Away+0.263
3 days rest or fewer+0.822
4+ days rest+0.205

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.415
v bottom-tier opponents+0.282
As favourite+0.435
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.116
Conceded late (76+)-0.417

Congested vs rested +0.62 · Ahead vs level -0.04 · Behind vs level +0.77

Burnley

Current: winless 20 · scoring 8 · conceding 15

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 86%0.331.172.51.41.68
4-3-2-11 14%1.01.01.00.91.01

Middlesbrough

Current: unbeaten 5 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 43%2.333.02.01.951.44
4-2-2-21 14%3.02.01.02.90.89
4-4-21 14%0.01.02.01.570.94
4-3-31 14%1.01.01.01.010.9
3-4-2-11 14%3.01.00.02.071.53

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 4.1d before kick-off · 104 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.8 pts at 2.1d

2.93Home 33% ▼ -3.4 ptsopened 2.593.67Draw 26% · -0.8 ptsopened 3.472.38Away 41% ▲ +4.2 ptsopened 2.59
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.93 ▼ -3.43.67 · -0.82.38 ▲ +4.210m
bet3653.2 ▼ -12.43.7 · -0.82.1 ▲ +13.210m
Betfair2.88 ▼ -12.23.5 · -0.12.3 ▲ +12.310m
BetVictor2.8 ▼ -3.83.75 ▼ -3.12.3 ▲ +7.010m
Coral3.1 ▼ -5.73.6 ▼ -1.42.2 ▲ +7.110m
Ladbrokes3.1 ▼ -5.73.6 ▼ -1.42.2 ▲ +7.110m
Unibet2.75 ▼ -2.23.5 ▼ -1.32.4 ▲ +3.510m
WilliamHill2.8 ▼ -10.13.4 · -0.12.3 ▲ +10.210m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.2Home 30% P 33%3.7Draw 26% P 26%2.1Away 45% P 41%

Double Chance

1.57Burnley or Draw 30%1.28Burnley or Middlesbrough 37%1.4Draw or Middlesbrough 33%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 59%2.3Under 41% P 41%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.52.2Over 42% P 42%1.61Under 58% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 40–42.5% · 197 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home33%33%29%-3.9
Draw26%26%30%+4.7
Away41%41%40%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 66% · over 2.5 62%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.559%59%60%+0.8

Matt Donohue

Career
202 matches · 10 seasons
Cards / match
4.26 (4.07 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
23.4 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 134 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.634.05+1.0590
Fouls / match23.021.8+0.99
Fouls per card5.05.4-0.77 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.150.17-0.4126
Time added7.27.2-0.0247
First card
36' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-16 90 210 8'10
2026-04-25 50 180 27'7
2026-04-21 50 270 32'5
2026-04-11 30 260 37'7
2026-04-06 · Middlesbrough 60 253 45'10
2026-03-14 70 312 30'7
2026-03-10 30 200 55'10
2026-03-07 62 150 29'12
2026-03-04 60 260 17'10
2026-02-24 40 250 30'10