Rating 7.45 (96th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (36% of team goals) · 72% of minutes
La Liga · Matchweek 7
Momentum
– ATMReal Madrid –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| Atlético de Madrid | at home | Stat | league | away | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.5 #3 | – | Ball possession | 49.9 | – | 54.7 #4 |
| 16.8 #4 | – | Shots total | 12.9 | – | 20.7 #2 |
| 6.0 #5 | – | Shots on target | 4.6 | – | 8.3 #2 |
| 5.3 #7 | – | Corners | 4.9 | – | 7.8 #2 |
| 11.2 #12 | – | Fouls | 12.3 | – | 8.8 #20 |
| 1.7 #10 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 1.8 #7 |
| 17.3 #8 | – | Tackles | 16.8 | – | 14.0 #18 |
| 111.8 #3 | – | Attacks | 96.9 | – | 107.0 #5 |
| 53.7 #4 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.3 | – | 63.7 #2 |
| 553.7 #4 | – | Passes | 455.9 | – | 548.5 #5 |
| 1.7 #15 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 1.7 #15 |
| 0.2 #4 | – | Redcards | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1.7 #3 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 2.0 #2 |
| – #16 | – | Btts | 55.7 | – | – #6 |
| – #2 | – | Cleansheet | 25.7 | – | – #12 |
| – #9 | – | Draw | 23.8 | – | – #18 |
| 1.7 #4 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 2.7 #2 |
| 0.7 #2 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #9 |
| – #9 | – | Failed to score | 25.7 | – | – #9 |
| 2.3 #3 | 2.7 | Goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 #2 |
| 1.0 #14 | 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 #14 |
| 0.2 #10 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.5 #2 |
| 10.0 #5 | – | Interceptions | 9.0 | – | 7.7 #16 |
| – #15 | – | Lost | 38.2 | – | – #15 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.3 | – | 0.2 #5 |
| 7.0 #4 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 7.1 #2 |
| 4.8 #3 | – | Shots blocked | 3.1 | – | 5.3 #1 |
| 10.2 #5 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.1 | – | 14.8 #2 |
| 6.0 #7 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 7.0 #3 |
| 6.7 #2 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 5.8 #3 |
| – #4 | – | Win | 38.0 | – | – #2 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.98 (home 1.66 · away 1.32)
- Home / draw / away
- 46% · 28% · 26%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 54%
- Cards / match
- 4.42 (reds 0.2)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Atlético de Madrid · 2026/2027 · La Liga
Rating 7.35 (97th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (14% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Rating 7.39 (95th pct) · G+A 2 + 1 (21% of team goals) · 70% of minutes
Real Madrid · 2026/2027 · La Liga
Rating 8.12 (94th pct) · G+A 7 + 3 (59% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 7.8 (97th pct) · G+A 3 + 2 (29% of team goals) · 83% of minutes
Rating 7.16 (85th pct) · G+A 1 + 3 (24% of team goals) · 95% of minutes
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 7
Venue
- Stadium
- Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Capacity
- 70,460
- Surface
- grass
Teams
- Coaches
- D. Simeone · José Mourinho
- Position
- 4 · 2
- Formation
- 3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Weather
- Conditions
- sky is clear
- Temperature
- 27.8° (feels 27.0°)
- Wind
- 2.5
- Humidity
- 32%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Barcelona |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Atlético de Madrid |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 13 | DWLWW |
| 5 |  Sevilla |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WLDWW |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alavés |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | DWWLL |
| 7 |  Deportivo A Coruña |
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 | DWWDL |
| 8 |  Espanyol |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | LLDWL |
| 9 |  Athletic Club |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LLWWD |
| 10 |  Racing Santander |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 12 |  Real Sociedad |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Osasuna |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 14 |  Villarreal |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 15 |  Levante |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 16 |  Getafe |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 18 |  Valencia |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 19 |  Málaga |
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 20 |  Elche |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Real Madrid |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 9 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Alavés |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 | DWWLL |
| 4 | Real Betis |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WLWWW |
| 5 | Atlético de Madrid |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | DWLWW |
| 6 | Racing Santander |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 7 | Rayo Vallecano |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 8 | Sevilla |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | WLDWW |
| 9 | Getafe |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 10 | Espanyol |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 11 | Athletic Club |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | LLWWD |
| 12 | Deportivo A Coruña |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | DWWDL |
| 13 | Osasuna |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Real Sociedad |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | LWDWL |
| 15 | Levante |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Málaga |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDDL |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LLDDD |
| 18 | Valencia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Villarreal |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 | DLLLW |
| 20 | Elche |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Sevilla |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WLDWW |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DWLWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Real Betis |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Villarreal |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 7 | Deportivo A Coruña |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | DWWDL |
| 8 | Espanyol |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LLDWL |
| 9 | Athletic Club |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Celta de Vigo |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 11 | Valencia |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 12 | Real Sociedad |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Osasuna |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Elche |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 15 | Levante |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Deportivo Alavés |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DWWLL |
| 17 | Málaga |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLDDL |
| 18 | Getafe |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | WLDDL |
| 19 | Racing Santander |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LWLWL |
| 20 | Rayo Vallecano |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | DLWLW |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Atlético de Madrid
WLLWW 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 11 GA 6 · xG 8.5–4.95 · xPts 8.36
- W
H
Osasuna
4–0
xG 3.83–0.42
ESP PL
- W
A
Real Sociedad
3–0
xG 1.9–0.39
ESP PL
- L
A
Liverpool
1–2
xG 0.6–1.46
UEFA CL - L
A
Athletic Club
0–3
xG 0.97–1.21
ESP PL
- W
A
Sevilla
3–1
xG 1.2–1.46
ESP PL
LWDWLLWW 4W 1D 3L · 13 pts (1.62 ppg) · GF 16 GA 13 · xG 11.62–10.92 · xPts 11.26
- W
H
Osasuna
4–0
xG 3.83–0.42
ESP PL
- W
A
Real Sociedad
3–0
xG 1.9–0.39
ESP PL
- L
A
Liverpool
1–2
xG 0.6–1.46
UEFA CL
- L
A
Athletic Club
0–3
xG 0.97–1.21
ESP PL
- W
A
Sevilla
3–1
xG 1.2–1.46
ESP PL
- D
H
Villarreal
2–2
xG 1.14–3.16
ESP PL
- W
H
Málaga
2–0
xG 0.97–0.35
ESP PL
- L
A
Villarreal
1–5
xG 1.01–2.47
ESP PL
Real Madrid
WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 13 GA 5 · xG 15.18–6.43 · xPts 11.62
- W
A
Elche
3–2
xG 2.81–1.5
ESP PL
- W
H
Rayo Vallecano
4–1
xG 2.9–1.27
ESP PL
- W
H
Inter
2–1
xG 3.77–2.03
UEFA CL - L
A
Real Betis
0–1
xG 2.91–0.77
ESP PL
- W
H
Málaga
4–0
xG 2.79–0.86
ESP PL
WWWWLWWW 7W 0D 1L · 21 pts (2.62 ppg) · GF 23 GA 9 · xG 21.61–8.98 · xPts 18.12
- W
A
Elche
3–2
xG 2.81–1.5
ESP PL
- W
H
Rayo Vallecano
4–1
xG 2.9–1.27
ESP PL
- W
H
Inter
2–1
xG 3.77–2.03
UEFA CL
- L
A
Real Betis
0–1
xG 2.91–0.77
ESP PL
- W
H
Málaga
4–0
xG 2.79–0.86
ESP PL
- W
H
Real Sociedad
4–1
xG 2.55–0.63
ESP PL
- W
A
Espanyol
2–1
xG 2.37–0.93
ESP PL
- W
H
Athletic Club
4–2
xG 1.5–1.0
ESP PL
full sample 10 meetings 2022–2026 · 8 in this competition · 2 elsewhere · 1 decided on penalties
Recurring referee: José Luis Munuera Montero · 2 of these meetings
Last 10
Goals 17–14 · Atlético de Madrid hosting: 3W 1D 1L · Real Madrid hosting: 2W 3D 0L
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano: 5 meetings · Atlético de Madrid 3 · draws 1 · Real Madrid 1 · 3.4 goals per match · last away win Sep 2022
All-time since 2005: 51 meetings · Atlético de Madrid 10 · draws 17 · Real Madrid 24
This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days
| Metric | Fixture | League | Δ | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals per match | 3.10 | 2.75 | +0.35 | 10 |
| Both teams score | 90% | 57% | +33% | 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% | -2% | 10 |
| Corners | 10.7 | 9.7 | +1.0 | 10 |
| Cards | 5.5 | 4.9 | +0.6 | 10 |
3 with 4+ goals · 1.50 first-half goals per match · red card in 4
How these games go · 10 with event data
| Atlético de Madrid | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 6 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Scored first and won | 3 | 2 |
| Won from behind | 1 | 1 |
first goal on average in minute 27 · a side came back in 6 · goal after the 75th minute in 5 · penalty scored in 3
When the goals come · all goals, 10 meetings
0-15'4
16-30'4
31-45'7
46-60'6
61-75'4
76-90'6
9 equalisers · 3 penalties · 2 headers
Expected goals · last 6 with xG
Deserved on xG: Atlético de Madrid 2 · level 2 · Real Madrid 2 — actual wins in those games 2 / 2
Against the market · 10 with closing odds
Favourite won 3 (30%), drew 4, upset 3 · market favoured Atlético de Madrid 0×, Real Madrid 10× · avg favourite 45%, avg price of the actual result 34%
Fixture specialists
- 4 Julián Alvarez Atlético de Madrid · in 3 games · last Sep 2025
- 2 Federico Valverde Real Madrid · in 2 games · last Mar 2026
- 2 Vinicius Junior Real Madrid · last Mar 2026
- 2 Kylian Mbappé Real Madrid · in 2 games · last Sep 2025
- 2 Antoine Griezmann Atlético de Madrid · in 2 games · last Sep 2025
Last meeting · 2026-03-22 · ESP PL
Real Madrid 3-2 Atlético de Madrid · ref José Luis Munuera Montero
- 33' Ademola Lookman assist Giuliano Simeone 0–1
- 52' Vinicius Junior (pen) 1–1
- 55' Federico Valverde 2–1
- 66' Nahuel Molina assist Julián Alvarez 2–2
- 72' Vinicius Junior assist Trent Alexander-Arnold 3–2
xG 2.82 – 1.32 · corners 5 · cards 6 · reds 1
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·
Match result
34.7%Atlético de Madrid P 26%24.1%Draw P 25%41.2%Real Madrid P 49%
Over / under 2.5
60.5%Over 2.5 P 65%39.5%Under 2.5 P 35%
Both teams to score
62.6%Yes37.4%No
Expected
- Atlético de Madrid goals
- 1.49 (0–3)
- Real Madrid goals
- 1.64 (0–3)
- Corners
- 11.95 (7–17)
- Cards
- 4.1 (1–7)
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
37.9%Atlético de Madrid24.1%Draw37.9%Real Madrid
Over / under 2.5
64.9%Over 2.535.1%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
65.6%Yes34.4%No
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 51 matches since 2005
Goals 55–80 · 2.65 per match · BTTS 63% · over 2.5 47%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 17–14 · 3.1 per match · BTTS 90% · over 2.5 50%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 10–8 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- L Real Madrid 3–2 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Atlético de Madrid 5–2 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Atlético de Madrid 1–0 Real Madrid pens None–None UEFA CL · Round of 16 · leg 2/2
- L Real Madrid 2–1 Atlético de Madrid UEFA CL · Round of 16 · leg 1/2
- D Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Atlético de Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Atlético de Madrid 3–1 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Real Madrid 1–1 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Atlético de Madrid 1–2 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Atlético de Madrid all · 6 | Atlético de Madrid at home · 3 | Real Madrid all · 6 | Real Madrid away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 2.17 | – | 2.50 | – |
| W / D / L | 4 / 1 / 1 | – | 5 / 0 / 1 | – |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | – | 2.83 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| Clean sheets | 50% | – | 17% | – |
| Failed to score | 17% | – | 17% | – |
| Both teams scored | 33% | – | 67% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | – | 83% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.67 | – | 2.72 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.17 | – | 0.99 | – |
| xG difference | 0.50 | – | 1.73 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.66 | – | 0.11 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.66 | – | 2.36 | – |
| Points vs xPts | 0.51 | – | 0.14 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 83% | – | 83% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.60 | – | 3.00 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.00 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Came back from behind | 50% | – | 0% | – |
| Leads held | 80% | – | 100% | – |
| Minutes leading | 34% | – | 48% | – |
| Minutes level | 56% | – | 50% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 9% | – | 2% | – |
| First goal (min) | 48 | – | 21 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 59 | – | 55 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 71% | – | 41% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 100% | – | 67% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 1.00 | – | 0.83 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.33 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 57% | – | 55% | – |
| Shots | 16.8 | – | 20.7 | – |
| On target | 6.0 | – | 8.3 | – |
| Shot conversion | 14% | – | 14% | – |
| Shots inside box | 60% | – | 73% | – |
| Big chances created | 3.0 | – | 4.7 | – |
| Corners | 5.3 | – | 7.8 | – |
| xG from set plays | 23% | – | 26% | – |
| Goals from headers | 0% | – | 7% | – |
| Pressure index | 18.0 | – | 21.3 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 64.2 | – | 67.7 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | – | 91% | – |
| Fouls | 11.3 | – | 8.8 | – |
| Cards | 1.83 | – | 1.67 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Atlético de Madrid
0–15'10
16–30'20
31–45'10
46–60'22
61–75'22
76–90'62
Real Madrid
0–15'20
16–30'51
31–45'31
46–60'11
61–75'11
76–90'52
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Atlético de Madrid · 7 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+1.242
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.403
Game state
When ahead+0.436
When level+0.357
When behind+0.363
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+0.576
Situations
At home+0.573
Away+0.234
4+ days rest+0.226
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.614
As favourite+0.415
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.237
Conceded when ahead-0.266
Conceded late (76+)-0.486
Congested vs rested +1.46 · Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level +0.01
Real Madrid · 7 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.47) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.477
Early press (0-15, level)+0.317
Late push (76+, level)+0.733
Game state
When ahead+0.346
When level+0.677
10 min after conceding-0.016
10 min after scoring+1.026
Situations
At home+0.244
Away+0.703
4+ days rest+0.456
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.693
v bottom-tier opponents+0.702
As favourite+0.477
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.056
Conceded late (76+)-0.496
Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -1.19
Atlético de Madrid
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 4 67% | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.5 | 1.78 | 1.56 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 17% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.97 | 0.35 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 17% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.39 |
Real Madrid
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 100% | 2.5 | 2.83 | 1.0 | 2.72 | 0.99 |
| Metric | Atlético de Madrid all · 10 | Atlético de Madrid at home · 10 | Real Madrid all · 10 | Real Madrid away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 1.60 |
| W / D / L | 6 / 1 / 3 | 5 / 2 / 3 | 9 / 0 / 1 | 5 / 1 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.60 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.56 | 1.83 | 2.47 | 1.95 |
| xG against / match | 1.54 | 1.37 | 1.10 | 1.41 |
| xG difference | 0.01 | 0.46 | 1.37 | 0.54 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.34 | -0.23 | 0.13 | -0.45 |
| xPts / match | 1.37 | 1.67 | 2.16 | 1.68 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.53 | 0.03 | 0.54 | -0.08 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 80% | 60% | 90% | 70% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.38 | 2.17 | 3.00 | 2.29 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Leads held | 75% | 71% | 100% | 71% |
| Minutes leading | 39% | 31% | 59% | 38% |
| Minutes level | 44% | 51% | 40% | 47% |
| Minutes trailing | 17% | 18% | 1% | 15% |
| First goal (min) | 37 | 40 | 21 | 29 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 56 | 40 | 57 | 46 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 58% | 69% | 38% | 40% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 64% | 50% | 67% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 54% | 51% | 56% | 53% |
| Shots | 14.1 | 15.9 | 18.4 | 15.0 |
| On target | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.3 |
| Shot conversion | 14% | 10% | 14% | 10% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 63% | 72% | 76% |
| Big chances created | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 |
| xG from set plays | 25% | 16% | 19% | 24% |
| Goals from headers | 11% | 0% | 4% | 15% |
| Pressure index | 13.9 | 16.7 | 18.4 | 15.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 53.6 | 57.5 | 61.8 | 54.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 84% | 90% | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.9 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Atlético de Madrid
0–15'20
16–30'41
31–45'24
46–60'24
61–75'32
76–90'63
Real Madrid
0–15'50
16–30'61
31–45'52
46–60'21
61–75'11
76–90'74
Atlético de Madrid
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 5 50% | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.72 | 1.69 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.4 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.39 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.97 | 0.35 |
| 3-5-2 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.46 |
Real Madrid
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 2.5 | 2.83 | 1.0 | 2.72 | 0.99 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.99 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.57 | 1.55 |
| Metric | Atlético de Madrid all · 56 | Atlético de Madrid at home · 28 | Real Madrid all · 54 | Real Madrid away · 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 56 | 28 | 54 | 27 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.32 | 2.15 | 1.81 |
| W / D / L | 31 / 8 / 17 | 21 / 2 / 5 | 37 / 5 / 12 | 15 / 4 / 8 |
| Goals for / match | 1.88 | 2.36 | 2.20 | 1.81 |
| Goals against / match | 1.30 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 1.30 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 32% | 32% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 14% | 7% | 11% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 61% | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 68% | 63% | 56% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.63 | 2.12 | 2.08 | 1.81 |
| xG against / match | 1.41 | 1.18 | 1.30 | 1.34 |
| xG difference | 0.21 | 0.93 | 0.78 | 0.47 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| xPts / match | 1.49 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 1.66 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.31 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 71% | 79% | 72% | 63% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.25 | 2.64 | 2.67 | 2.53 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.67 | 1.17 | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| Came back from behind | 29% | 54% | 29% | 27% |
| Leads held | 72% | 88% | 86% | 79% |
| Minutes leading | 34% | 43% | 43% | 34% |
| Minutes level | 50% | 46% | 46% | 51% |
| Minutes trailing | 15% | 11% | 12% | 15% |
| First goal (min) | 32 | 29 | 34 | 38 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 38 | 48 | 43 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 55% | 61% | 53% | 55% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 48% | 58% | 57% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.46 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| Late goals against | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 52% | 54% | 57% | 58% |
| Shots | 13.8 | 16.6 | 17.5 | 15.7 |
| On target | 5.3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| Shot conversion | 14% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 68% | 70% | 66% | 66% |
| Big chances created | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| xG from set plays | 26% | 24% | 29% | 24% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 17% | 10% | 13% |
| Pressure index | 16.5 | 21.5 | 20.2 | 19.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 52.5 | 62.3 | 60.9 | 60.3 |
| Pass accuracy | 85% | 86% | 89% | 88% |
| Fouls | 11.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| Cards | 2.07 | 1.71 | 2.24 | 2.48 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Atlético de Madrid
0–15'195
16–30'1211
31–45'1615
46–60'1514
61–75'1712
76–90'2616
Real Madrid
0–15'115
16–30'284
31–45'1716
46–60'229
61–75'149
76–90'2716
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Atlético de Madrid · 56 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.31) · stands out: against ten men -0.62
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.3156
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2856
Late push (76+, level)+0.1617
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.1717
Game state
When ahead+0.3343
When level+0.3556
When behind+0.1424
10 min after conceding-0.0838
10 min after scoring+0.6048
Situations
With ten men-0.116
Against ten men-0.624
At home+0.4628
Away+0.1728
3 days rest or fewer+0.3423
4+ days rest+0.2933
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0512
v mid-tier opponents+0.4224
v bottom-tier opponents+0.296
As favourite+0.4735
Evenly matched+0.1613
As underdog-0.108
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0756
Conceded when ahead-0.0743
Conceded late (76+)-0.2350
Congested vs rested +0.04 · Ahead vs level -0.01 · Behind vs level -0.21
Real Madrid · 54 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.48) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.78
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.4854
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2354
Late push (76+, level)+0.5216
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.1511
Game state
When ahead+0.4843
When level+0.4954
When behind+0.4717
10 min after conceding+0.4236
10 min after scoring+0.7847
Situations
With ten men+0.375
Against ten men+0.137
At home+0.3827
Away+0.5827
3 days rest or fewer+0.3416
4+ days rest+0.5438
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0915
v mid-tier opponents+0.5519
v bottom-tier opponents+0.598
As favourite+0.5844
Evenly matched+0.205
As underdog-0.065
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1854
Conceded when ahead-0.1743
Conceded late (76+)-0.3244
Congested vs rested -0.20 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.02
Atlético de Madrid
Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 38 68% | 1.76 | 2.05 | 1.34 | 1.69 | 1.39 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 5 9% | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| 4-3-3 | 4 7% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.0 | 1.78 | 2.16 |
| 5-3-2 | 3 5% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.67 | 2.47 | 1.06 |
| 3-5-2 | 2 4% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.18 |
Real Madrid
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 25 46% | 2.12 | 2.12 | 1.16 | 1.79 | 1.39 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 26% | 2.0 | 2.29 | 1.29 | 2.15 | 1.05 |
| 4-3-3 | 10 18% | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 2.49 | 1.28 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 4% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.88 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.66 | 1.41 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 78 snapshots · last 42.2h before kick-off · biggest step: home +2.1 pts at 3.7d
3.68Home 26% ▲ +3.3 ptsopened 4.143.86Draw 25% · -0.1 ptsopened 3.791.98Away 49% ▼ -3.2 ptsopened 1.83
Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.68 ▲ +3.3 | 3.86 · -0.1 | 1.98 ▼ -3.2 | 42.2h |
| bet365 | 3.6 ▲ +1.4 | 3.8 ▲ +1.3 | 1.95 ▼ -2.7 | 42.2h |
| Betfair | 3.6 · +0.5 | 3.9 ▲ +1.1 | 1.95 ▼ -1.6 | 42.2h |
| BetVictor | 3.2 ▲ +3.6 | 4.1 · -0.8 | 1.93 ▼ -2.8 | 42.2h |
| Coral | 3.5 ▲ +2.6 | 3.75 · +0.2 | 1.95 ▼ -2.8 | 42.2h |
| Ladbrokes | 3.5 ▲ +2.1 | 3.7 · +0.6 | 1.95 ▼ -2.7 | 42.2h |
| WilliamHill | 3.5 ▲ +2.0 | 3.6 · +0.6 | 1.95 ▼ -2.7 | 42.2h |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 78 snapshots · last 42.2h before kick-off
1.44Yes 65% · +0.0 ptsopened 1.442.62No 35% · +0.0 ptsopened 2.62
Yes No consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.44 · +0.0 | 2.62 · +0.0 | 42.2h |
| Betfair | 1.36 ▲ +4.5 | 3.0 ▼ -4.5 | 42.2h |
| BetVictor | 1.4 · +0.4 | 2.75 · -0.4 | 42.2h |
| WilliamHill | 1.44 · +0.0 | 2.62 · +0.0 | 42.2h |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 78 snapshots · last 42.2h before kick-off
1.48Over 65% · +0.4 ptsopened 1.472.74Under 35% · -0.4 ptsopened 2.67
Over Under consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.48 · +0.4 | 2.74 · -0.4 | 42.2h |
| bet365 | 1.44 · +0.0 | 2.75 · +0.0 | 42.2h |
| Betfair | 1.4 ▲ +1.0 | 2.88 ▼ -1.0 | 42.2h |
| BetVictor | 1.43 · +0.0 | 2.55 · +0.0 | 42.2h |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 42.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.6Home 26% P 26%3.8Draw 25% P 25%1.95Away 49% P 49%
Double Chance
1.8Atletico Madrid or Draw 26%1.25Atletico Madrid or Real Madrid 37%1.28Draw or Real Madrid 37%
Draw No Bet
2.621 35%1.442 65%
Both Teams To Score
1.44Yes 65%2.62No 35%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.44Over 66% P 65%2.75Under 34% P 35%
Total Corners
13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.69 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 47.5–50% · 285 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 26% | 26% | 24% | -2.2 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 27% | +1.9 |
| Away | 49% | 49% | 49% | +0.2 |
In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 56%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 64% | 63% | -0.4 |