KickoffDNA
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La Liga · Matchweek 7

Momentum

ATHALA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
7

Venue

Stadium
San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Capacity
53,289
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Edin Terzic · Enrique Sánchez Flores
Position
9 · 6
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
22.1° (feels 21.8°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
58%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 6600 28622 18 WWWWW
2 Real Madrid 6501 17611 15 WWLWW
3 Real Betis 6501 862 15 WLWWW
4 Atlético de Madrid 6411 1468 13 DWLWW
5 Sevilla 6411 963 13 WLDWW
6 Deportivo Alavés 6312 1165 10 DWWLL
7 Deportivo A Coruña 6231 972 9 DWWDL
8 Espanyol 6213 972 7 LLDWL
9 Athletic Club 5212 761 7 LLWWD
10 Racing Santander 6213 1116-5 7 LWLWL
11 Rayo Vallecano 6213 1015-5 7 DLWLW
12 Real Sociedad 6213 611-5 7 LWDWL
13 Osasuna 6213 512-7 7 WWLLL
14 Villarreal 6123 1011-1 5 DLLLW
15 Levante 5122 79-2 5 LDWDL
16 Getafe 6123 37-4 5 WLDDL
17 Celta de Vigo 6042 36-3 4 LLDDD
18 Valencia 6114 210-8 4 LLLLW
19 Málaga 6033 311-8 3 DLDDL
20 Elche 6024 816-8 2 LLLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Athletic Club

LLWWD 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 7.55–7.25 · xPts 7.66

  • D H Elche 1–1 xG 2.17–1.79 ESP PL
  • W H Atlético de Madrid 3–0 xG 1.21–0.97 ESP PL
  • W A Celta de Vigo 2–0 xG 2.23–0.88 ESP PL
  • L A FC Barcelona 0–2 xG 0.35–3.07 ESP PL
  • L H Sevilla 1–3 xG 1.58–0.54 ESP PL

Deportivo Alavés

DWWLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 6 · xG 6.44–6.08 · xPts 7.18

  • L H Valencia 0–1 xG 0.99–0.69 ESP PL
  • L A Racing Santander 1–2 xG 1.91–1.33 ESP PL
  • W H Osasuna 5–2 xG 1.17–1.76 ESP PL
  • W H Villarreal 1–0 xG 0.74–1.73 ESP PL
  • D A Rayo Vallecano 1–1 xG 1.63–0.57 ESP PL

full sample 8 meetings 2021–2026 · 2 on neutral ground

Recurring referee: José María Sánchez Martínez · 2 of these meetings

Last 8

Athletic Club 52 draws1 Deportivo Alavés

Goals 11–4 · Athletic Club hosting: 2W 0D 1L · Deportivo Alavés hosting: 0W 1D 2L

At San Mamés Barria: 3 meetings · Athletic Club 2 · draws 0 · Deportivo Alavés 1 · 1.33 goals per match · last away win Sep 2025

All-time since 2005: 20 meetings · Athletic Club 7 · draws 7 · Deportivo Alavés 6

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match1.872.75-0.888
Both teams score25%57%-32%8
Over 2.5 goals12%52%-39%8
Corners11.39.7+1.68
Cards4.34.9-0.68

1 goalless · 1 with 4+ goals · 0.75 first-half goals per match

How these games go · 8 with event data

Athletic ClubDeportivo Alavés
Scored first5 of 82 of 8
Scored first and won41
Won from behind10

first goal on average in minute 34 · a side came back in 2 · goal after the 75th minute in 2

When the goals come · all goals, 7 meetings

0-15'2
16-30'1
31-45'3
46-60'2
61-75'4
76-90'3

3 equalisers · 2 own goals · 1 header

Expected goals · last 5 with xG

Athletic Club 1.11 xGper match0.62 xG Deportivo Alavés

Deserved on xG: Athletic Club 2 · level 3 · Deportivo Alavés 0 — actual wins in those games 3 / 1

Against the market · 8 with closing odds

Favourite won 5 (62%), drew 2, upset 1 · market favoured Athletic Club 8×, Deportivo Alavés 0× · avg favourite 50%, avg price of the actual result 41%

Fixture specialists

  • 2 Oihan Sancet Athletic Club · in 2 games · last May 2026
  • 2 Nico Williams Athletic Club · last May 2026
  • 2 Gorka Guruzeta Athletic Club · last Mar 2024
  • 1 Robert Navarro Athletic Club · last May 2026
  • 1 Nahuel Tenaglia Deportivo Alavés · last May 2026

Last meeting · 2026-05-02 · ESP PL

Deportivo Alavés 2-4 Athletic Club · ref Alejandro Quintero González

  • 8' Antonio Blanco assist Ángel Pérez 1–0
  • 46' Robert Navarro assist Nico Williams 1–1
  • 68' Nahuel Tenaglia assist Abde Rebbach 2–1
  • 74' Oihan Sancet assist Yuri Berchiche 2–2
  • 83' Nico Williams assist Gorka Guruzeta 2–3
  • 87' Nico Williams assist Gorka Guruzeta 2–4

xG 0.50 – 0.84 · corners 11 · cards 7

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

45.3%Athletic Club P 58%26.9%Draw P 24%27.8%Deportivo Alavés P 18%

Over / under 2.5

45.9%Over 2.5 P 50%54.1%Under 2.5 P 50%

Both teams to score

50.4%Yes49.6%No

Expected

Athletic Club goals
1.44 (0–3)
Deportivo Alavés goals
1.07 (0–2)
Corners
11.4 (7–16)
Cards
4.75 (2–8)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

51.7%Athletic Club25.9%Draw22.4%Deportivo Alavés

Over / under 2.5

46.2%Over 2.553.8%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

48.7%Yes51.3%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 20 matches since 2005

Athletic Club 77 draws6 Deportivo Alavés

Goals 18–14 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 25% · over 2.5 15%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Athletic Club 53 draws2 Deportivo Alavés

Goals 11–5 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 10%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Athletic Club 31 draws1 Deportivo Alavés

Goals 8–4 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%

Recent meetings

  • W Deportivo Alavés 2–4 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Athletic Club 0–1 Deportivo Alavés ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Athletic Club 1–0 Deportivo Alavés ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Deportivo Alavés 1–1 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Athletic Club 2–0 Deportivo Alavés ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Deportivo Alavés 0–2 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Deportivo Alavés 0–0 Athletic Club neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Athletic Club 1–0 Deportivo Alavés neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Athletic Club 0–0 Deportivo Alavés neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Deportivo Alavés 1–0 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricAthletic Club all · 5Athletic Club at home · 3Deportivo Alavés all · 6Deportivo Alavés away · 2
Results
Matches56
Points per game1.401.67
W / D / L2 / 1 / 23 / 1 / 2
Goals for / match1.401.83
Goals against / match1.201.00
Clean sheets40%33%
Failed to score20%17%
Both teams scored40%50%
Over 2.540%50%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.36
xG against / match1.451.07
xG difference0.060.29
Finishing vs xG-0.110.47
xPts / match1.531.59
Points vs xPts-0.130.07
Game state
Scored first40%67%
PPG when scoring first3.002.25
PPG when conceding first0.330.50
Came back from behind33%33%
Leads held100%75%
Minutes leading25%29%
Minutes level40%55%
Minutes trailing35%16%
First goal (min)5447
First goal conceded (min)3452
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half71%64%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%83%
Late goals for (76'+)0.400.67
Late goals against0.200.17
Style
Possession49%44%
Shots14.014.2
On target4.45.2
Shot conversion10%13%
Shots inside box69%62%
Big chances created2.62.8
Corners6.44.8
xG from set plays24%21%
Goals from headers14%27%
Pressure index16.712.1
Dominant minutes55.851.8
Pass accuracy82%79%
Fouls10.413.7
Cards2.002.33

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Athletic Club

0–15'01
16–30'20
31–45'01
46–60'23
61–75'10
76–90'21

Deportivo Alavés

0–15'00
16–30'20
31–45'21
46–60'13
61–75'21
76–90'41

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Athletic Club · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.09

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.405
Early press (0-15, level)+0.435
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.353

Game state

When ahead+0.222
When level+0.595
When behind+0.323
10 min after conceding-0.203
10 min after scoring+1.094

Situations

At home+0.613
Away+0.112
4+ days rest+0.314

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.392
v mid-tier opponents+0.872
As favourite+1.032
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.065
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.175

Congested vs rested +0.44 · Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.27

Deportivo Alavés · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.08) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.38

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.086
Early press (0-15, level)-0.216
Late push (76+, level)+0.302
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.033

Game state

When ahead-0.194
When level-0.066
When behind+0.053
10 min after conceding-0.384
10 min after scoring+0.025

Situations

Against ten men-0.632
At home-0.184
Away+0.112
4+ days rest-0.135

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.042
v bottom-tier opponents-0.043
Evenly matched-0.135

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.146
Conceded when ahead+0.274
Conceded late (76+)-0.156

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.13 · Behind vs level +0.11

Athletic Club

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 100%1.41.41.21.511.45

Deportivo Alavés

Current: winless 2 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-5-24 67%1.52.251.251.451.03
5-3-22 33%2.01.00.51.191.15

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 97 snapshots · last 23.2h before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.6 pts at 2.2d

1.65Home 58% · +0.7 ptsopened 1.644.07Draw 24% · -0.2 ptsopened 3.975.42Away 18% · -0.5 ptsopened 5.17
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.65 · +0.74.07 · -0.25.42 · -0.523.2h
bet3651.61 ▲ +1.04.0 ▼ -2.25.25 ▲ +1.123.2h
Betfair1.6 ▲ +3.24.0 ▼ -1.45.5 ▼ -1.823.2h
BetVictor1.62 ▲ +2.13.9 ▼ -1.15.5 ▼ -1.023.2h
Coral1.65 ▲ +1.23.9 · -0.45.25 · -0.723.2h
Ladbrokes1.65 · +0.53.8 · -0.45.0 · -0.123.2h
Unibet1.62 · +0.03.95 · +0.05.3 · +0.023.2h
WilliamHill1.65 · +0.93.75 · -0.95.0 · +0.123.2h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 23.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.61Home 59% P 58%4.0Draw 24% P 24%5.25Away 18% P 18%

Double Chance

1.16Athletic Club or Draw 41%1.22Athletic Club or CD Alaves 39%2.25Draw or CD Alaves 21%

Draw No Bet

1.221 77%4.02 23%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50%1.9No 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 50%1.9Under 50% P 50%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%8.0Over 14 11%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 57.5–60% · away 17.5–20% · 511 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home58%59%60%+1.3
Draw24%23%24%+1.3
Away18%18%16%-2.6

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 57%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%51%51%-0.1