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La Liga · Matchweek 6

Momentum

RAYEspanyol
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
6

Venue

Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés
Capacity
12,454
Surface
grass
Attendance
3,742

Teams

Coaches
Beñat San José Gil · José González Álvarez
Position
16 · 8
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
31.5° (feels 29.6°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
21%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 6600 28622 18 WWWWW
2 Real Madrid 6501 17611 15 WWLWW
3 Real Betis 6501 862 15 WLWWW
4 Atlético de Madrid 6411 1468 13 DWLWW
5 Sevilla 6411 963 13 WLDWW
6 Deportivo Alavés 6312 1165 10 DWWLL
7 Deportivo A Coruña 6231 972 9 DWWDL
8 Espanyol 6213 972 7 LLDWL
9 Athletic Club 5212 761 7 LLWWD
10 Racing Santander 6213 1116-5 7 LWLWL
11 Rayo Vallecano 6213 1015-5 7 DLWLW
12 Real Sociedad 6213 611-5 7 LWDWL
13 Osasuna 6213 512-7 7 WWLLL
14 Villarreal 6123 1011-1 5 DLLLW
15 Levante 5122 79-2 5 LDWDL
16 Getafe 6123 37-4 5 WLDDL
17 Celta de Vigo 6042 36-3 4 LLDDD
18 Valencia 6114 210-8 4 LLLLW
19 Málaga 6033 311-8 3 DLDDL
20 Elche 6024 816-8 2 LLLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Rayo Vallecano

LDLWL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 14 · xG 6.0–10.37 · xPts 4.64

  • L A Real Madrid 1–4 xG 1.27–2.9 ESP PL
  • W H Racing Santander 3–2 xG 1.35–0.56 ESP PL
  • L A FC Barcelona 2–5 xG 1.15–2.71 ESP PL
  • D H Deportivo Alavés 1–1 xG 0.57–1.63 ESP PL
  • L A Sevilla 1–2 xG 1.65–2.56 ESP PL

Espanyol

WLLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 5 · xG 6.57–6.08 · xPts 7.59

  • W A Osasuna 2–0 xG 1.37–0.82 ESP PL
  • D H Sevilla 1–1 xG 1.51–0.44 ESP PL
  • L A Real Sociedad 1–2 xG 0.86–2.11 ESP PL
  • L H Real Madrid 1–2 xG 0.93–2.37 ESP PL
  • W H Levante 3–0 xG 1.9–0.34 ESP PL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

47.0%Rayo Vallecano P 40%25.7%Draw P 29%27.3%Espanyol P 31%

Over / under 2.5

50.0%Over 2.5 P 52%50.0%Under 2.5 P 48%

Both teams to score

53.4%Yes46.6%No

Expected

Rayo Vallecano goals
1.55 (0–3)
Espanyol goals
1.12 (0–3)
Corners
9.43 (5–14)
Cards
5.32 (2–9)

Earlier: day before — 47.0% / 25.7% / 27.3%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

46.0%Rayo Vallecano27.5%Draw26.5%Espanyol

Over / under 2.5

47.4%Over 2.552.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.3%Yes48.7%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2home0.7550.422
ou_2_5over0.6920.499
bttsyes0.6270.434

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 21 matches since 2011

Rayo Vallecano 73 draws11 Espanyol

Goals 26–35 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Rayo Vallecano 50 draws5 Espanyol

Goals 10–12 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Rayo Vallecano 20 draws3 Espanyol

Goals 4–8 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Espanyol ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Rayo Vallecano 0–4 Espanyol ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Espanyol ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Espanyol 0–2 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Espanyol 0–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricRayo Vallecano all · 6Rayo Vallecano at home · 3Espanyol all · 6Espanyol away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game1.171.17
W / D / L2 / 1 / 32 / 1 / 3
Goals for / match1.671.50
Goals against / match2.501.17
Clean sheets0%33%
Failed to score0%0%
Both teams scored100%67%
Over 2.583%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.261.44
xG against / match2.081.27
xG difference-0.820.18
Finishing vs xG0.410.06
xPts / match0.951.55
Points vs xPts0.22-0.39
Game state
Scored first67%33%
PPG when scoring first1.003.00
PPG when conceding first1.500.25
Came back from behind25%25%
Leads held40%100%
Minutes leading41%32%
Minutes level27%34%
Minutes trailing32%34%
First goal (min)2238
First goal conceded (min)3825
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half40%33%
Goals conceded in 2nd half53%43%
Late goals for (76'+)0.000.33
Late goals against0.670.33
Style
Possession46%47%
Shots12.512.0
On target5.03.8
Shot conversion13%12%
Shots inside box57%58%
Big chances created1.72.0
Corners5.52.0
xG from set plays20%17%
Goals from headers10%11%
Pressure index10.210.3
Dominant minutes44.741.7
Pass accuracy79%80%
Fouls12.817.8
Cards2.833.17

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Rayo Vallecano

0–15'32
16–30'24
31–45'11
46–60'43
61–75'01
76–90'04

Espanyol

0–15'23
16–30'21
31–45'20
46–60'10
61–75'01
76–90'22

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Rayo Vallecano · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.67

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.076
Early press (0-15, level)+0.306
Late push (76+, level)-0.252
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.553

Game state

When ahead-0.135
When level+0.036
When behind-0.064
10 min after conceding-0.376
10 min after scoring+0.676

Situations

Against ten men+0.352
At home-0.083
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.055

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.052
v mid-tier opponents-0.103
Evenly matched-0.103
As underdog-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.246
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)+0.396

Congested vs rested -0.10 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.10

Espanyol · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.156
Early press (0-15, level)-0.296
Late push (76+, level)-0.712
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.084

Game state

When ahead-0.192
When level-0.266
When behind-0.044
10 min after conceding-0.494
10 min after scoring+0.326

Situations

Against ten men-0.422
At home-0.253
Away-0.073
4+ days rest-0.285

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.085
Evenly matched+0.142
As underdog-0.393

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.186
Conceded when ahead-0.042
Conceded late (76+)+0.076

Congested vs rested +0.73 · Ahead vs level +0.06 · Behind vs level +0.22

Rayo Vallecano

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 8

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%0.751.53.01.42.57
4-1-4-11 17%1.01.01.00.571.63
4-3-31 17%3.03.02.01.350.56

Espanyol

Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 83%1.41.61.01.551.05
4-4-21 17%0.01.02.00.932.37

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.7 pts at 42.0h

2.41Home 40% ▼ -6.9 ptsopened 2.013.38Draw 29% ▲ +1.5 ptsopened 3.483.15Away 31% ▲ +5.5 ptsopened 3.74
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.41 ▼ -6.93.38 ▲ +1.53.15 ▲ +5.510m
bet3652.2 ▼ -4.93.25 ▲ +1.63.4 ▲ +3.310m
Betfair2.3 ▼ -5.83.3 · -0.33.0 ▲ +6.010m
BetVictor2.3 ▼ -5.83.3 ▲ +1.73.13 ▲ +4.110m
Coral2.25 ▼ -4.93.25 ▲ +1.53.3 ▲ +3.310m
Ladbrokes2.25 ▼ -4.93.25 ▲ +1.53.2 ▲ +3.410m
Unibet1.92 · +0.03.55 · +0.03.95 · +0.010m
WilliamHill2.3 ▼ -6.83.1 ▲ +2.13.0 ▲ +4.610m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 40%3.25Draw 29% P 29%3.4Away 28% P 31%

Double Chance

1.36Rayo Vallecano or Draw 34%1.33Rayo Vallecano or Espanyol 35%1.53Draw or Espanyol 31%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 52%1.9Under 50% P 48%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

5.52.0Over 46% P 48%1.72Under 54% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%41%41%-0.1
Draw29%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Career
117 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
5.96 (5.59 yellow · 0.25 red)
Fouls / match
26.3 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.35
Cards to home side
48%

Style in La Liga (5-year window · 95 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.655.08+0.9789
Fouls / match26.625.7+0.49
Fouls per card4.75.1-0.74 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.34-0.4929
Time added8.37.7+0.6586
First card
34' on average
Card timing
9% in first 30' · 45% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.35

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-06 40 120 45'12
2026-08-28 50 230 45'5
2026-08-21 60 210 46'7
2026-05-17 40 250 10'10
2026-05-12 61 290 49'11
2026-05-02 40 190 24'9
2026-04-11 80 191 36'12
2026-03-21 · Espanyol 90 340 45'10
2026-03-06 30 160 31'12
2026-02-28 30 200 53'13