Rating 6.95 (60th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (33% of team goals) · 70% of minutes
La Liga · Matchweek 6
Momentum
– MálagaVillarreal –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Málaga | at home | Stat | league | away | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0 #8 | – | Ball possession | 49.9 | – | 61.8 #2 |
| 9.8 #16 | – | Shots total | 12.9 | – | 15.2 #5 |
| 1.7 #20 | – | Shots on target | 4.6 | – | 6.5 #4 |
| 4.8 #8 | – | Corners | 4.9 | – | 7.3 #4 |
| 12.3 #11 | – | Fouls | 12.3 | – | 11.0 #13 |
| 1.3 #15 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 3.0 #3 |
| 16.5 #11 | – | Tackles | 16.8 | – | 15.3 #15 |
| 87.3 #15 | – | Attacks | 96.9 | – | 122.3 #2 |
| 34.2 #20 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.3 | – | 73.0 #1 |
| 490.5 #8 | – | Passes | 455.9 | – | 592.3 #2 |
| 2.7 #4 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 2.0 #11 |
| 0.3 #17 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 1.0 #8 |
| – #9 | – | Btts | 55.7 | – | – #2 |
| – #12 | – | Cleansheet | 25.7 | – | – #16 |
| – #2 | – | Draw | 23.8 | – | – #5 |
| 0.9 #18 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 2.2 #3 |
| -0.4 #16 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | -0.5 #20 |
| – #3 | – | Failed to score | 25.7 | – | – #9 |
| 0.5 #17 | 0.7 | Goals | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 #6 |
| 1.8 #5 | 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 #5 |
| 0.3 #4 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.3 #4 |
| 8.8 #11 | – | Interceptions | 9.0 | – | 8.5 #13 |
| – #3 | – | Lost | 38.2 | – | – #3 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.3 | – | 0.5 #2 |
| 6.7 #14 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #6 |
| 2.7 #9 | – | Shots blocked | 3.1 | – | 4.0 #5 |
| 5.5 #15 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.1 | – | 10.7 #3 |
| 5.5 #8 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 4.7 #12 |
| 4.3 #15 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 4.5 #12 |
| – #18 | – | Win | 38.0 | – | – #15 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.98 (home 1.66 · away 1.32)
- Home / draw / away
- 46% · 28% · 26%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 54%
- Cards / match
- 4.42 (reds 0.2)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Málaga · 2026/2027 · La Liga
Rating 6.68 (21th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (33% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 6.83 (50th pct) · G+A 0 + 0 (0% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Villarreal · 2026/2027 · La Liga
Rating 7.28 (92th pct) · G+A 3 + 0 (30% of team goals) · 81% of minutes
Rating 7.21 (70th pct) · G+A 2 + 0 (20% of team goals) · 76% of minutes
Rating 6.88 (71th pct) · G+A 0 + 1 (10% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Absences
Málaga
- injury Julen Lobete attacker · Cruciate Ligament Injury · 2 missed · until 2027-06-30
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 6
Venue
- Stadium
- Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
- Capacity
- 30,044
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 28,505
Teams
- Coaches
- Juan Funes Arjona · Iñigo Pérez
- Position
- 18 · 19
- Formation
- 4-1-4-1 · 4-4-2
Referee
Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 23.5° (feels 24.0°)
- Wind
- 2.6
- Humidity
- 80%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Barcelona |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Atlético de Madrid |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 13 | DWLWW |
| 5 |  Sevilla |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WLDWW |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alavés |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | DWWLL |
| 7 |  Deportivo A Coruña |
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 | DWWDL |
| 8 |  Espanyol |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | LLDWL |
| 9 |  Athletic Club |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LLWWD |
| 10 |  Racing Santander |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 12 |  Real Sociedad |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Osasuna |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 14 |  Villarreal |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 15 |  Levante |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 16 |  Getafe |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 18 |  Valencia |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 19 |  Málaga |
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 20 |  Elche |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Real Madrid |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 9 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Alavés |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 | DWWLL |
| 4 | Real Betis |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WLWWW |
| 5 | Atlético de Madrid |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | DWLWW |
| 6 | Racing Santander |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 7 | Rayo Vallecano |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 8 | Sevilla |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | WLDWW |
| 9 | Getafe |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 10 | Espanyol |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 11 | Athletic Club |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | LLWWD |
| 12 | Deportivo A Coruña |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | DWWDL |
| 13 | Osasuna |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Real Sociedad |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | LWDWL |
| 15 | Levante |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Málaga |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDDL |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LLDDD |
| 18 | Valencia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Villarreal |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 | DLLLW |
| 20 | Elche |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Sevilla |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WLDWW |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DWLWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Real Betis |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Villarreal |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 7 | Deportivo A Coruña |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | DWWDL |
| 8 | Espanyol |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LLDWL |
| 9 | Athletic Club |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Celta de Vigo |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 11 | Valencia |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 12 | Real Sociedad |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Osasuna |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Elche |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 15 | Levante |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Deportivo Alavés |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DWWLL |
| 17 | Málaga |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLDDL |
| 18 | Getafe |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | WLDDL |
| 19 | Racing Santander |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LWLWL |
| 20 | Rayo Vallecano |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | DLWLW |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Málaga
LDLDD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 2 GA 8 · xG 4.62–7.92 · xPts 4.74
- D
A
Celta de Vigo
1–1
xG 0.53–1.34
ESP PL
- D
H
Levante
0–0
xG 1.57–0.87
ESP PL
- L
A
Real Madrid
0–4
xG 0.86–2.79
ESP PL
- D
H
Deportivo A Coruña
1–1
xG 1.31–1.96
ESP PL
- L
A
Atlético de Madrid
0–2
xG 0.35–0.97
ESP PL
LDLDD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 2 GA 8 · xG 4.62–7.92 · xPts 4.74
- D
A
Celta de Vigo
1–1
xG 0.53–1.34
ESP PL
- D
H
Levante
0–0
xG 1.57–0.87
ESP PL
- L
A
Real Madrid
0–4
xG 0.86–2.79
ESP PL
- D
H
Deportivo A Coruña
1–1
xG 1.31–1.96
ESP PL
- L
A
Atlético de Madrid
0–2
xG 0.35–0.97
ESP PL
Villarreal
DLLLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 9.62–8.49 · xPts 7.86
- L
H
Real Betis
1–2
xG 1.69–2.98
ESP PL
- L
A
Borussia Dortmund
2–3
xG 1.42–2.75
UEFA CL - L
H
Deportivo A Coruña
2–3
xG 1.63–0.87
ESP PL
- L
A
Deportivo Alavés
0–1
xG 1.73–0.74
ESP PL
- D
A
Atlético de Madrid
2–2
xG 3.16–1.14
ESP PL
WDDLLLL 1W 2D 4L · 5 pts (0.71 ppg) · GF 14 GA 14 · xG 13.0–11.52 · xPts 10.79
- L
H
Real Betis
1–2
xG 1.69–2.98
ESP PL
- L
A
Borussia Dortmund
2–3
xG 1.42–2.75
UEFA CL
- L
H
Deportivo A Coruña
2–3
xG 1.63–0.87
ESP PL
- L
A
Deportivo Alavés
0–1
xG 1.73–0.74
ESP PL
- D
A
Atlético de Madrid
2–2
xG 3.16–1.14
ESP PL
- D
A
Racing Santander
2–2
xG 0.9–2.03
ESP PL
- W
H
Atlético de Madrid
5–1
xG 2.47–1.01
ESP PL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
25.2%Málaga P 29%26.4%Draw P 27%48.4%Villarreal P 44%
Over / under 2.5
46.1%Over 2.5 P 56%53.9%Under 2.5 P 44%
Both teams to score
49.8%Yes50.2%No
Expected
- Málaga goals
- 1.01 (0–2)
- Villarreal goals
- 1.51 (0–3)
- Corners
- 9.38 (5–14)
- Cards
- 4.59 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 25.1% / 26.4% / 48.5%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
43.1%Málaga27.3%Draw29.6%Villarreal
Over / under 2.5
50.1%Over 2.549.9%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
54.7%Yes45.3%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 0.726 | 0.4 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.774 | 0.581 |
| btts | yes | 0.697 | 0.504 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 21 matches since 2005
Goals 22–27 · 2.33 per match · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 38%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 7–13 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 3–8 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%
Recent meetings
- L Málaga 1–3 Villarreal ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Málaga 1–0 Villarreal ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Villarreal 2–0 Málaga ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Villarreal 1–1 Málaga ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Málaga 0–2 Villarreal ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Villarreal 1–0 Málaga neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Málaga 0–1 Villarreal ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Villarreal 2–1 Málaga neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Málaga 1–1 Villarreal ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Málaga 2–0 Villarreal ESP PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Málaga all · 6 | Málaga at home · 3 | Villarreal all · 6 | Villarreal away · 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 0.50 | – | 0.83 | – |
| W / D / L | 0 / 3 / 3 | – | 1 / 2 / 3 | – |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | – | 1.67 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | – | 1.83 | – |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 0% | – |
| Failed to score | 50% | – | 17% | – |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 83% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | – | 83% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 0.88 | – | 2.10 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.90 | – | 1.40 | – |
| xG difference | -1.02 | – | 0.69 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.38 | – | -0.43 | – |
| xPts / match | 0.82 | – | 1.76 | – |
| Points vs xPts | -0.32 | – | -0.93 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 17% | – | 33% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 0.00 | – | 0.00 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.50 | – | 1.25 | – |
| Came back from behind | 40% | – | 50% | – |
| Leads held | 0% | – | 25% | – |
| Minutes leading | 5% | – | 16% | – |
| Minutes level | 59% | – | 53% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 35% | – | 31% | – |
| First goal (min) | 43 | – | 40 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 38 | – | 34 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 33% | – | 40% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 36% | – | 36% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.17 | – | 0.50 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.50 | – | 0.50 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 62% | – |
| Shots | 9.8 | – | 15.2 | – |
| On target | 1.7 | – | 6.5 | – |
| Shot conversion | 5% | – | 11% | – |
| Shots inside box | 54% | – | 70% | – |
| Big chances created | 0.7 | – | 3.3 | – |
| Corners | 4.8 | – | 7.3 | – |
| xG from set plays | 51% | – | 34% | – |
| Goals from headers | 33% | – | 11% | – |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | – | 18.3 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 37.7 | – | 60.2 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | – | 89% | – |
| Fouls | 12.3 | – | 10.0 | – |
| Cards | 2.67 | – | 2.00 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Málaga
0–15'10
16–30'04
31–45'13
46–60'00
61–75'01
76–90'13
Villarreal
0–15'01
16–30'21
31–45'45
46–60'01
61–75'10
76–90'33
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Málaga · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.60
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.176
Early press (0-15, level)-0.006
Late push (76+, level)+0.183
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.603
Game state
When level+0.016
When behind-0.485
10 min after conceding-0.605
10 min after scoring+0.303
Situations
At home-0.093
Away-0.283
4+ days rest-0.176
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.432
v mid-tier opponents+0.123
Evenly matched+0.232
As underdog-0.414
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.486
Conceded late (76+)+0.095
Ahead vs level -0.72 · Behind vs level -0.49
Villarreal · 7 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.43) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.77
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.437
Early press (0-15, level)+0.447
Late push (76+, level)-0.104
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.254
Game state
When ahead+0.754
When level+0.427
When behind+0.317
10 min after conceding-0.307
10 min after scoring+0.776
Situations
At home+0.162
Away+0.545
3 days rest or fewer+0.932
4+ days rest+0.235
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.042
v mid-tier opponents+0.632
v bottom-tier opponents+0.932
As favourite+0.554
As underdog+0.042
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.127
Conceded when ahead-0.334
Conceded late (76+)-0.027
Congested vs rested +0.71 · Ahead vs level +0.33 · Behind vs level -0.11
Málaga
Current: winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-1-4-1 | 4 67% | 0.5 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.71 | 1.94 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.57 | 0.87 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.86 | 2.79 |
Villarreal
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 21
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 6 100% | 0.83 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Metric | Málaga all · 6 | Málaga at home · 3 | Villarreal all · 10 | Villarreal away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | – | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| W / D / L | 0 / 3 / 3 | – | 2 / 2 / 6 | 2 / 4 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | – | 1.90 | 1.30 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | – | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | – | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 80% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | – | 80% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 0.88 | – | 1.88 | 1.71 |
| xG against / match | 1.90 | – | 1.51 | 1.43 |
| xG difference | -1.02 | – | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.38 | – | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| xPts / match | 0.82 | – | 1.59 | 1.52 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.32 | – | -0.79 | -0.52 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 17% | – | 40% | 30% |
| PPG when scoring first | 0.00 | – | 0.75 | 1.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.50 | – | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Came back from behind | 40% | – | 33% | 43% |
| Leads held | 0% | – | 33% | 40% |
| Minutes leading | 5% | – | 20% | 21% |
| Minutes level | 59% | – | 50% | 52% |
| Minutes trailing | 35% | – | 30% | 28% |
| First goal (min) | 43 | – | 38 | 41 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 38 | – | 36 | 45 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 33% | – | 37% | 38% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 36% | – | 45% | 53% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.17 | – | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| Late goals against | 0.50 | – | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 58% | 51% |
| Shots | 9.8 | – | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| On target | 1.7 | – | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| Shot conversion | 5% | – | 14% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 54% | – | 69% | 71% |
| Big chances created | 0.7 | – | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 4.8 | – | 7.1 | 5.7 |
| xG from set plays | 51% | – | 34% | 35% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | – | 12% | 9% |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | – | 15.7 | 11.9 |
| Dominant minutes | 37.7 | – | 55.5 | 45.8 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | – | 88% | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.3 | – | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| Cards | 2.67 | – | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Málaga
0–15'10
16–30'04
31–45'13
46–60'00
61–75'01
76–90'13
Villarreal
0–15'11
16–30'42
31–45'78
46–60'13
61–75'21
76–90'45
Málaga
Current: winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-1-4-1 | 4 67% | 0.5 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.71 | 1.94 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.86 | 2.79 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.57 | 0.87 |
Villarreal
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 21
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 9 90% | 0.89 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.93 | 1.37 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 10% | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
| Metric | Málaga all · 6 | Málaga at home · 3 | Villarreal all · 48 | Villarreal away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 48 | 25 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | – | 1.48 | 1.20 |
| W / D / L | 0 / 3 / 3 | – | 21 / 8 / 19 | 8 / 6 / 11 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | – | 1.69 | 1.28 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | – | 1.54 | 1.64 |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 12% | 12% |
| Failed to score | 50% | – | 21% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 67% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | – | 67% | 56% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 0.88 | – | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| xG against / match | 1.90 | – | 1.45 | 1.53 |
| xG difference | -1.02 | – | 0.22 | -0.10 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.38 | – | 0.02 | -0.15 |
| xPts / match | 0.82 | – | 1.53 | 1.36 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.32 | – | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 17% | – | 56% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 0.00 | – | 2.19 | 2.40 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.50 | – | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| Came back from behind | 40% | – | 30% | 31% |
| Leads held | 0% | – | 68% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 5% | – | 29% | 22% |
| Minutes level | 59% | – | 46% | 48% |
| Minutes trailing | 35% | – | 24% | 30% |
| First goal (min) | 43 | – | 38 | 44 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 38 | – | 44 | 42 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 33% | – | 51% | 53% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 36% | – | 60% | 58% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.17 | – | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Late goals against | 0.50 | – | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 46% | 45% |
| Shots | 9.8 | – | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| On target | 1.7 | – | 4.7 | 3.9 |
| Shot conversion | 5% | – | 14% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 54% | – | 69% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 0.7 | – | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Corners | 4.8 | – | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| xG from set plays | 51% | – | 24% | 29% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | – | 8% | 7% |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | – | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 37.7 | – | 41.9 | 36.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | – | 83% | 82% |
| Fouls | 12.3 | – | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| Cards | 2.67 | – | 2.25 | 2.60 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Málaga
0–15'10
16–30'04
31–45'13
46–60'00
61–75'01
76–90'13
Villarreal
0–15'85
16–30'117
31–45'2118
46–60'1518
61–75'118
76–90'1518
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Málaga · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.60
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.176
Early press (0-15, level)-0.006
Late push (76+, level)+0.183
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.603
Game state
When level+0.016
When behind-0.485
10 min after conceding-0.605
10 min after scoring+0.303
Situations
At home-0.093
Away-0.283
4+ days rest-0.176
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.432
v mid-tier opponents+0.123
Evenly matched+0.232
As underdog-0.414
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.486
Conceded late (76+)+0.095
Ahead vs level -0.72 · Behind vs level -0.49
Villarreal · 48 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: against ten men +0.90
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.0148
Early press (0-15, level)+0.1048
Late push (76+, level)-0.0117
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2319
Game state
When ahead+0.0431
When level+0.0648
When behind-0.1227
10 min after conceding-0.3541
10 min after scoring+0.3538
Situations
With ten men-0.414
Against ten men+0.903
At home+0.0723
Away-0.0425
3 days rest or fewer+0.0111
4+ days rest+0.0137
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.2412
v mid-tier opponents+0.0119
v bottom-tier opponents+0.288
As favourite+0.2026
Evenly matched-0.1511
As underdog-0.2711
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.1948
Conceded when ahead+0.1831
Conceded late (76+)+0.0943
Congested vs rested +0.00 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.18
Málaga
Current: winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-1-4-1 | 4 67% | 0.5 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.71 | 1.94 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.86 | 2.79 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.57 | 0.87 |
Villarreal
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 21
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 45 94% | 1.49 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 1.66 | 1.43 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 4% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -4.6 pts at 40m · late move: away -5.4 pts inside the final hour
3.41Home 29% ▲ +1.4 ptsopened 3.513.6Draw 27% ▲ +2.9 ptsopened 3.942.19Away 44% ▼ -4.3 ptsopened 1.95
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.41 ▲ +1.4 | 3.6 ▲ +2.9 | 2.19 ▼ -4.3 | 10m |
| bet365 | 3.5 · +0.4 | 3.6 ▲ +1.1 | 2.05 ▼ -1.6 | 10m |
| Betfair | 3.3 · +0.2 | 3.4 ▲ +2.2 | 2.0 ▼ -2.4 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 3.8 ▼ -1.8 | 3.7 · +0.3 | 1.93 ▲ +1.5 | 10m |
| Coral | 3.2 ▲ +2.4 | 3.6 · -0.1 | 2.15 ▼ -2.3 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 3.1 ▲ +3.4 | 3.6 · -0.0 | 2.15 ▼ -3.4 | 10m |
| Unibet | 3.5 ▲ +1.2 | 3.5 · +0.8 | 2.07 ▼ -2.0 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 3.4 · -0.5 | 3.5 · +0.3 | 1.91 · +0.2 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: yes +1.9 pts at 27.5h · late move: yes +1.9 pts inside the final hour
1.53Yes 61% ▲ +1.9 ptsopened 1.572.37No 39% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 2.25
Yes No consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.53 ▲ +1.9 | 2.37 ▼ -1.9 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.5 ▲ +3.1 | 2.5 ▼ -3.1 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.47 ▲ +2.4 | 2.45 ▼ -2.4 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.62 ▼ -1.8 | 2.2 ▲ +1.8 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: over -3.2 pts at 40m · late move: under +2.8 pts inside the final hour
1.72Over 56% ▼ -2.3 ptsopened 1.632.21Under 44% ▲ +2.3 ptsopened 2.3
Over Under consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.72 ▼ -2.3 | 2.21 ▲ +2.3 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.57 ▲ +3.2 | 2.37 ▼ -3.2 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.65 · -0.8 | 2.2 · +0.8 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.63 · -0.8 | 2.1 · +0.8 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.5Home 27% P 29%3.6Draw 26% P 27%2.05Away 46% P 44%
Double Chance
1.9Malaga or Draw 25%1.25Malaga or Villarreal 38%1.25Draw or Villarreal 38%
Draw No Bet
2.751 34%1.42 66%
Both Teams To Score
1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.57Over 60% P 56%2.37Under 40% P 44%
Total Corners
9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%
Number of Cards
4.52.1Over 44% P 43%1.66Under 56% P 57%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 27.5–30% · away 42.5–45% · 505 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 29% | 29% | 23% | -5.8 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 27% | -0.3 |
| Away | 44% | 44% | 50% | +6.1 |
In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 57%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 56% | -0.2 |
Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias
- Career
- 98 matches · 6 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.77 (4.36 yellow · 0.26 red)
- Fouls / match
- 23.4 · 4.9 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.26
- Cards to home side
- 48%
Style in La Liga (5-year window · 94 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.66 | 5.08 | -0.62 | 25 |
| Fouls / match | 23.1 | 25.7 | -1.90 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.0 | 5.1 | -0.28 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.26 | 0.34 | -1.00 | 7 |
| Time added | 8.0 | 7.7 | +0.35 | 57 |
- First card
- 36' on average
- Card timing
- 10% in first 30' · 43% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 48% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.18
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 9' | 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 64' | 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 27' | 7 |
| 2026-05-17 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11' | 7 |
| 2026-05-10 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 15' | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6' | 10 |
| 2026-04-12 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 56' | 7 |
| 2026-03-20 · Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 38' | 10 |
| 2026-03-14 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 55' | 11 |
| 2026-03-01 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 42' | 9 |