Rating 8.12 (94th pct) · G+A 7 + 3 (59% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
La Liga · Matchweek 5
Momentum
– Real MadridRAY –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Loading statistics…
Season context
| Real Madrid | at home | Stat | league | away | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.7 #4 | – | Ball possession | 49.9 | – | 46.3 #15 |
| 20.7 #2 | – | Shots total | 12.9 | – | 12.5 #8 |
| 8.3 #2 | – | Shots on target | 4.6 | – | 5.0 #7 |
| 7.8 #2 | – | Corners | 4.9 | – | 5.5 #6 |
| 8.8 #20 | – | Fouls | 12.3 | – | 13.5 #7 |
| 1.8 #7 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 1.2 #17 |
| 14.0 #18 | – | Tackles | 16.8 | – | 16.8 #9 |
| 107.0 #5 | – | Attacks | 96.9 | – | 80.2 #19 |
| 63.7 #2 | – | Dangerous attacks | 46.3 | – | 38.5 #15 |
| 548.5 #5 | – | Passes | 455.9 | – | 365.8 #16 |
| 1.7 #15 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 2.5 #5 |
| – | – | Redcards | 0.2 | – | 0.3 #1 |
| 2.0 #2 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 1.2 #5 |
| – #6 | – | Btts | 55.7 | – | – #1 |
| – #12 | – | Cleansheet | 25.7 | – | – #16 |
| – #18 | – | Draw | 23.8 | – | – #9 |
| 2.7 #2 | – | Expected goals | 1.5 | – | 1.3 #12 |
| 0.1 #9 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | 0.4 #5 |
| – #9 | – | Failed to score | 25.7 | – | – #16 |
| 2.8 #2 | 4.0 | Goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 #6 |
| 1.0 #14 | 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 #3 |
| 0.5 #2 | – | Injury time goals | 0.3 | – | 0.2 #10 |
| 7.7 #16 | – | Interceptions | 9.0 | – | 11.2 #2 |
| – #15 | – | Lost | 38.2 | – | – #3 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.3 | – | – |
| 7.1 #2 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.7 #16 |
| 5.3 #1 | – | Shots blocked | 3.1 | – | 2.5 #14 |
| 14.8 #2 | – | Shots insidebox | 8.1 | – | 7.2 #10 |
| 7.0 #3 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 5.0 #9 |
| 5.8 #3 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.9 | – | 5.3 #5 |
| – #2 | – | Win | 38.0 | – | – #8 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 20.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 380
- Goals / match
- 2.98 (home 1.66 · away 1.32)
- Home / draw / away
- 46% · 28% · 26%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 56% · 54%
- Cards / match
- 4.42 (reds 0.2)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Real Madrid · 2026/2027 · La Liga
Rating 7.8 (97th pct) · G+A 3 + 2 (29% of team goals) · 83% of minutes
Rating 7.16 (85th pct) · G+A 1 + 3 (24% of team goals) · 95% of minutes
Rayo Vallecano · 2026/2027 · La Liga
Rating 7.06 (76th pct) · G+A 0 + 3 (30% of team goals) · 87% of minutes
Rating 7.46 (88th pct) · G+A 6 + 1 (70% of team goals) · 74% of minutes
Rating 6.73 (33th pct) · G+A 2 + 2 (40% of team goals) · 82% of minutes
Absences
Real Madrid
- injury Ferland Mendy defender · Tendon Rupture · 16 missed · until 2027-04-30
- injury Éder Militão defender · Muscle Injury · 15 missed
Rayo Vallecano
- injury Raúl de Tomás attacker · Unknown Injury · 36 missed
- suspension Fran Pérez #19 key player attacker · Red Card Suspension · 1 missed · until 2026-09-13
- suspension Jorge de Frutos #9 key player attacker · Red Card Suspension · 1 missed · until 2026-09-16
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 5
Venue
- Stadium
- Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Capacity
- 84,744
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 71,898
Teams
- Coaches
- José Mourinho · Beñat San José Gil
- Position
- 4 · 14
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Víctor García Verdura
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 25.7° (feels 25.1°)
- Wind
- 3.6
- Humidity
- 32%
Where to watch · 108
Afghanistan
FanCode
Albania
Super Sport 2 HD
Algeria
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Andorra
DAZN
Anguilla
Bluu
Antigua and Barbuda
Bluu
Argentina
Disney+ Premium
Armenia
FAST TV
Aruba
Bluu
Australia
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Austria
DAZN · DAZN Austria
Bahamas
Bluu
Bahrain
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Bangladesh
FanCode
Barbados
Bluu
Belgium
DAZN
Bhutan
FanCode
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Arena Cloud · Arena Premium 3 · Moja TV
Brazil
CazeTV
British Virgin Islands
Bluu
Brunei
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Bulgaria
MAX Sport 4
Cambodia
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Canada
TSN+
China
Migu
Costa Rica
Sky Sports Norte
Cyprus
Cablenet TV Go · Cytavision on the Go · Cytavision PPV6 · Cytavision Sports 4K · Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark
Disney+ Nord
Dominican Republic
Bluu · Sky Sports Norte
Egypt
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
El Salvador
Sky Sports Norte
England
Premier Sports Player
Finland
Disney+ Nord
France
DAZN
Germany
DAZN · DAZN Germany
Guatemala
Sky Sports Norte
Honduras
Sky Sports Norte
Hong Kong
Now Player
India
FanCode
Indonesia
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Iran
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Iraq
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Italy
DAZN
Jamaica
Bluu
Japan
DAZN · U-NEXT
Jordan
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Kuwait
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Laos
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Lebanon
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Liechtenstein
Blue Sport
Malaysia
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Maldives
FanCode · Medianet
Malta
GO TV Anywhere · TSN4
Mexico
Sky Sports Mexico · Sky+
Monaco
DAZN
Morocco
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Nepal
FanCode
Nicaragua
Sky Sports Norte
Northern Ireland
Premier Sports Player
Norway
TV2 Play
Oman
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Pakistan
FanCode
Palestine
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Panama
Bluu
Philippines
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Poland
Canal+
Portugal
DAZN
Qatar
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Republic of Ireland
Premier Sports Player
Romania
Digi Online · Digi Sport 2 · Orange TV Go
Saudi Arabia
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Scotland
Premier Sports Player
Singapore
beIN SPORTS CONNECT · beIN Sports Connect Singapore
South Korea
Coupang Play
Spain
DAZN · DAZN LaLiga · LaLiga TV Bar · Movistar+
Sri Lanka
FanCode
Sudan
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Sweden
Disney+ Nord
Switzerland
Blue Sport
Thailand
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
Trinidad and Tobago
Bluu
Tunisia
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
United Arab Emirates
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
United States
ESPN Select · ESPN+ · Fubo.tv
Vietnam
SCTV15
Wales
Premier Sports Player
Yemen
beIN SPORTS CONNECT
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Barcelona |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Atlético de Madrid |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 13 | DWLWW |
| 5 |  Sevilla |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WLDWW |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alavés |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | DWWLL |
| 7 |  Deportivo A Coruña |
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 | DWWDL |
| 8 |  Espanyol |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | LLDWL |
| 9 |  Athletic Club |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LLWWD |
| 10 |  Racing Santander |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 12 |  Real Sociedad |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 13 |  Osasuna |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | WWLLL |
| 14 |  Villarreal |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 15 |  Levante |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 16 |  Getafe |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 18 |  Valencia |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 19 |  Málaga |
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 20 |  Elche |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Real Madrid |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 9 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Alavés |
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 | DWWLL |
| 4 | Real Betis |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WLWWW |
| 5 | Atlético de Madrid |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | DWLWW |
| 6 | Racing Santander |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | LWLWL |
| 7 | Rayo Vallecano |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 8 | Sevilla |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | WLDWW |
| 9 | Getafe |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 10 | Espanyol |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 11 | Athletic Club |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | LLWWD |
| 12 | Deportivo A Coruña |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | DWWDL |
| 13 | Osasuna |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Real Sociedad |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | LWDWL |
| 15 | Levante |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Málaga |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDDL |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LLDDD |
| 18 | Valencia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Villarreal |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 | DLLLW |
| 20 | Elche |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Sevilla |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WLDWW |
| 3 | Atlético de Madrid |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DWLWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Real Betis |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Villarreal |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | DLLLW |
| 7 | Deportivo A Coruña |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | DWWDL |
| 8 | Espanyol |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LLDWL |
| 9 | Athletic Club |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | LLWWD |
| 10 | Celta de Vigo |
3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 11 | Valencia |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 12 | Real Sociedad |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Osasuna |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | WWLLL |
| 14 | Elche |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 15 | Levante |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 | LDWDL |
| 16 | Deportivo Alavés |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DWWLL |
| 17 | Málaga |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLDDL |
| 18 | Getafe |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | WLDDL |
| 19 | Racing Santander |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LWLWL |
| 20 | Rayo Vallecano |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | DLWLW |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation
Real Madrid
WWWLW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 12 GA 4 · xG 14.39–5.22 · xPts 11.99
- W
H
Inter
2–1
xG 3.77–2.03
UEFA CL - L
A
Real Betis
0–1
xG 2.91–0.77
ESP PL
- W
H
Málaga
4–0
xG 2.79–0.86
ESP PL
- W
H
Real Sociedad
4–1
xG 2.55–0.63
ESP PL
- W
A
Espanyol
2–1
xG 2.37–0.93
ESP PL
WWWWWLW 6W 0D 1L · 18 pts (2.57 ppg) · GF 17 GA 6 · xG 17.26–7.27 · xPts 15.31
- W
H
Inter
2–1
xG 3.77–2.03
UEFA CL
- L
A
Real Betis
0–1
xG 2.91–0.77
ESP PL
- W
H
Málaga
4–0
xG 2.79–0.86
ESP PL
- W
H
Real Sociedad
4–1
xG 2.55–0.63
ESP PL
- W
A
Espanyol
2–1
xG 2.37–0.93
ESP PL
- W
H
Athletic Club
4–2
xG 1.5–1.0
ESP PL
- W
A
Sevilla
1–0
xG 1.37–1.06
ESP PL
Rayo Vallecano
LLDLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 5.48–9.33 · xPts 4.72
- W
H
Racing Santander
3–2
xG 1.35–0.56
ESP PL
- L
A
FC Barcelona
2–5
xG 1.15–2.71
ESP PL
- D
H
Deportivo Alavés
1–1
xG 0.57–1.63
ESP PL
- L
A
Sevilla
1–2
xG 1.65–2.56
ESP PL
- L
A
Crystal Palace
0–1
xG 0.75–1.87
UEFA ECL
WWLLDLW 3W 1D 3L · 10 pts (1.43 ppg) · GF 11 GA 12 · xG 8.52–12.5 · xPts 7.45
- W
H
Racing Santander
3–2
xG 1.35–0.56
ESP PL
- L
A
FC Barcelona
2–5
xG 1.15–2.71
ESP PL
- D
H
Deportivo Alavés
1–1
xG 0.57–1.63
ESP PL
- L
A
Sevilla
1–2
xG 1.65–2.56
ESP PL
- L
A
Crystal Palace
0–1
xG 0.75–1.87
UEFA ECL
- W
A
Deportivo Alavés
2–1
xG 1.35–2.03
ESP PL
- W
H
Villarreal
2–0
xG 1.69–1.13
ESP PL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
70.7%Real Madrid P 84%17.3%Draw P 10%12.0%Rayo Vallecano P 5%
Over / under 2.5
64.7%Over 2.5 P 72%35.3%Under 2.5 P 28%
Both teams to score
54.4%Yes45.6%No
Expected
- Real Madrid goals
- 2.43 (1–4)
- Rayo Vallecano goals
- 0.91 (0–2)
- Corners
- 12.68 (8–18)
- Cards
- 4.87 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 70.8% / 17.2% / 12.0%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
74.5%Real Madrid16.1%Draw9.4%Rayo Vallecano
Over / under 2.5
61.1%Over 2.538.9%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
47.4%Yes52.6%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | home | 0.346 | 0.13 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.436 | 0.249 |
| btts | yes | 0.608 | 0.415 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 23 matches since 2011
Goals 59–22 · 3.52 per match · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 56%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 17–11 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 11–6 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 80%
Recent meetings
- W Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- D Real Madrid 0–0 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano ESP PL · Regular Season
- L Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
- W Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Real Madrid all · 6 | Real Madrid at home · 3 | Rayo Vallecano all · 6 | Rayo Vallecano away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 2.50 | – | 1.17 | – |
| W / D / L | 5 / 0 / 1 | – | 2 / 1 / 3 | – |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | – | 1.67 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | – | 2.50 | – |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 0% | – |
| Failed to score | 17% | – | 0% | – |
| Both teams scored | 67% | – | 100% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | – | 83% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 2.72 | – | 1.26 | – |
| xG against / match | 0.99 | – | 2.08 | – |
| xG difference | 1.73 | – | -0.82 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.11 | – | 0.41 | – |
| xPts / match | 2.36 | – | 0.95 | – |
| Points vs xPts | 0.14 | – | 0.22 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 83% | – | 67% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 3.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.00 | – | 1.50 | – |
| Came back from behind | 0% | – | 25% | – |
| Leads held | 100% | – | 40% | – |
| Minutes leading | 48% | – | 41% | – |
| Minutes level | 50% | – | 27% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 2% | – | 32% | – |
| First goal (min) | 21 | – | 22 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 55 | – | 38 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 41% | – | 40% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 67% | – | 53% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.83 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.33 | – | 0.67 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 55% | – | 46% | – |
| Shots | 20.7 | – | 12.5 | – |
| On target | 8.3 | – | 5.0 | – |
| Shot conversion | 14% | – | 13% | – |
| Shots inside box | 73% | – | 57% | – |
| Big chances created | 4.7 | – | 1.7 | – |
| Corners | 7.8 | – | 5.5 | – |
| xG from set plays | 26% | – | 20% | – |
| Goals from headers | 7% | – | 10% | – |
| Pressure index | 21.3 | – | 10.2 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 67.7 | – | 44.7 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | – | 79% | – |
| Fouls | 8.8 | – | 12.8 | – |
| Cards | 1.67 | – | 2.83 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Real Madrid
0–15'20
16–30'51
31–45'31
46–60'11
61–75'11
76–90'52
Rayo Vallecano
0–15'32
16–30'24
31–45'11
46–60'43
61–75'01
76–90'04
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Real Madrid · 7 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.47) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.477
Early press (0-15, level)+0.317
Late push (76+, level)+0.733
Game state
When ahead+0.346
When level+0.677
10 min after conceding-0.016
10 min after scoring+1.026
Situations
At home+0.244
Away+0.703
4+ days rest+0.456
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.693
v bottom-tier opponents+0.702
As favourite+0.477
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.056
Conceded late (76+)-0.496
Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -1.19
Rayo Vallecano · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.67
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.076
Early press (0-15, level)+0.306
Late push (76+, level)-0.252
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.553
Game state
When ahead-0.135
When level+0.036
When behind-0.064
10 min after conceding-0.376
10 min after scoring+0.676
Situations
Against ten men+0.352
At home-0.083
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.055
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.052
v mid-tier opponents-0.103
Evenly matched-0.103
As underdog-0.052
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.246
Conceded when ahead+0.155
Conceded late (76+)+0.396
Congested vs rested -0.10 · Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.10
Real Madrid
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 100% | 2.5 | 2.83 | 1.0 | 2.72 | 0.99 |
Rayo Vallecano
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 8
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 67% | 0.75 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2.57 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.57 | 1.63 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 17% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.35 | 0.56 |
| Metric | Real Madrid all · 10 | Real Madrid at home · 10 | Rayo Vallecano all · 10 | Rayo Vallecano away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 2.70 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| W / D / L | 9 / 0 / 1 | 8 / 1 / 1 | 4 / 2 / 4 | 3 / 1 / 6 |
| Goals for / match | 2.60 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| Goals against / match | 0.90 | 1.10 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 2.47 | 2.40 | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| xG against / match | 1.10 | 1.29 | 1.83 | 2.07 |
| xG difference | 1.37 | 1.12 | -0.57 | -0.73 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.24 | -0.24 |
| xPts / match | 2.16 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.54 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 90% | 80% | 60% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 3.00 | 2.75 | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| Came back from behind | 0% | 50% | 33% | 14% |
| Leads held | 100% | 89% | 50% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 59% | 53% | 34% | 19% |
| Minutes level | 40% | 39% | 36% | 39% |
| Minutes trailing | 1% | 8% | 30% | 42% |
| First goal (min) | 21 | 35 | 28 | 38 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 57 | 55 | 37 | 30 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 38% | 52% | 47% | 54% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 67% | 64% | 50% | 45% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Late goals against | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 56% | 56% | 49% | 47% |
| Shots | 18.4 | 19.4 | 12.1 | 12.5 |
| On target | 7.4 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Shot conversion | 14% | 14% | 12% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 72% | 66% | 55% | 57% |
| Big chances created | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Corners | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| xG from set plays | 19% | 24% | 21% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 4% | 0% | 13% | 18% |
| Pressure index | 18.4 | 18.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 61.8 | 58.9 | 44.9 | 39.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 90% | 80% | 77% |
| Fouls | 8.8 | 8.5 | 13.8 | 16.0 |
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Real Madrid
0–15'50
16–30'61
31–45'52
46–60'21
61–75'11
76–90'74
Rayo Vallecano
0–15'33
16–30'44
31–45'12
46–60'54
61–75'11
76–90'14
Real Madrid
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 2.5 | 2.83 | 1.0 | 2.72 | 0.99 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.99 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.57 | 1.55 |
Rayo Vallecano
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 8
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 8 80% | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.88 | 1.33 | 2.01 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.57 | 1.63 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.35 | 0.56 |
| Metric | Real Madrid all · 54 | Real Madrid at home · 27 | Rayo Vallecano all · 53 | Rayo Vallecano away · 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 54 | 27 | 53 | 26 |
| Points per game | 2.15 | 2.48 | 1.47 | 1.00 |
| W / D / L | 37 / 5 / 12 | 22 / 1 / 4 | 21 / 15 / 17 | 7 / 5 / 14 |
| Goals for / match | 2.20 | 2.59 | 1.30 | 1.08 |
| Goals against / match | 1.09 | 0.89 | 1.26 | 1.77 |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 30% | 32% | 19% |
| Failed to score | 11% | 7% | 23% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 63% | 51% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 70% | 49% | 62% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 2.08 | 2.34 | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| xG against / match | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.37 | 1.76 |
| xG difference | 0.78 | 1.09 | 0.06 | -0.53 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.13 | 0.25 | -0.13 | -0.15 |
| xPts / match | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.45 | 1.09 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.02 | -0.09 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 72% | 82% | 53% | 42% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.67 | 2.77 | 2.18 | 1.82 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.79 | 1.20 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| Came back from behind | 29% | 33% | 35% | 22% |
| Leads held | 86% | 92% | 66% | 54% |
| Minutes leading | 43% | 52% | 25% | 19% |
| Minutes level | 46% | 40% | 51% | 43% |
| Minutes trailing | 12% | 8% | 24% | 38% |
| First goal (min) | 34 | 30 | 41 | 36 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 48 | 52 | 38 | 28 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 53% | 51% | 52% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 58% | 54% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| Late goals against | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 57% | 57% | 52% | 49% |
| Shots | 17.5 | 19.3 | 14.5 | 11.8 |
| On target | 6.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 14% | 9% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 66% | 66% | 56% | 55% |
| Big chances created | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Corners | 6.2 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| xG from set plays | 29% | 32% | 24% | 22% |
| Goals from headers | 10% | 7% | 12% | 7% |
| Pressure index | 20.2 | 20.7 | 13.8 | 10.0 |
| Dominant minutes | 60.9 | 61.6 | 51.5 | 40.0 |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 90% | 81% | 80% |
| Fouls | 10.1 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 15.4 |
| Cards | 2.24 | 2.00 | 3.08 | 3.73 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Real Madrid
0–15'115
16–30'284
31–45'1716
46–60'229
61–75'149
76–90'2716
Rayo Vallecano
0–15'99
16–30'811
31–45'1611
46–60'1213
61–75'98
76–90'1515
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Real Madrid · 54 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.48) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.78
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.4854
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2354
Late push (76+, level)+0.5216
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.1511
Game state
When ahead+0.4843
When level+0.4954
When behind+0.4717
10 min after conceding+0.4236
10 min after scoring+0.7847
Situations
With ten men+0.375
Against ten men+0.137
At home+0.3827
Away+0.5827
3 days rest or fewer+0.3416
4+ days rest+0.5438
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.0915
v mid-tier opponents+0.5519
v bottom-tier opponents+0.598
As favourite+0.5844
Evenly matched+0.205
As underdog-0.065
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1854
Conceded when ahead-0.1743
Conceded late (76+)-0.3244
Congested vs rested -0.20 · Ahead vs level -0.00 · Behind vs level -0.02
Rayo Vallecano · 53 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.51
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1553
Early press (0-15, level)+0.1953
Late push (76+, level)-0.0624
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0417
Game state
When ahead+0.1731
When level+0.1853
When behind+0.0526
10 min after conceding-0.0836
10 min after scoring+0.5141
Situations
With ten men+0.136
Against ten men+0.305
At home+0.2427
Away+0.0526
3 days rest or fewer+0.0514
4+ days rest+0.1839
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.227
v mid-tier opponents+0.0520
v bottom-tier opponents+0.138
As favourite+0.3324
Evenly matched+0.0612
As underdog-0.0517
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0353
Conceded when ahead-0.0631
Conceded late (76+)-0.0747
Congested vs rested -0.13 · Ahead vs level -0.01 · Behind vs level -0.13
Real Madrid
Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 25 46% | 2.12 | 2.12 | 1.16 | 1.79 | 1.39 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 26% | 2.0 | 2.29 | 1.29 | 2.15 | 1.05 |
| 4-3-3 | 10 18% | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 2.49 | 1.28 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 4% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.88 |
| 4-2-2-2 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.62 | 1.15 |
Rayo Vallecano
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 6 · conceding 8
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 36 68% | 1.44 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.44 | 1.49 |
| 4-3-3 | 10 19% | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.56 | 0.97 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 4 8% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.75 | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| 4-4-2 | 3 6% | 0.33 | 1.0 | 1.67 | 1.27 | 1.65 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.3 pts at 3.9d
1.15Home 84% · -0.2 ptsopened 1.149.38Draw 10% · -0.2 ptsopened 9.1718.25Away 5% · +0.3 ptsopened 19.29
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.15 · -0.2 | 9.38 · -0.2 | 18.25 · +0.3 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.14 · -0.8 | 8.0 · +0.8 | 15.0 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.12 · -0.8 | 8.5 · +0.7 | 17.0 · +0.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.13 · +0.3 | 9.0 · -0.2 | 18.0 · -0.1 | 10m |
| Coral | 1.17 ▼ -1.7 | 8.5 · -0.0 | 13.0 ▲ +1.7 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 1.17 · -0.5 | 8.5 · -0.6 | 13.0 ▲ +1.0 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.12 · +0.6 | 9.0 · -0.0 | 19.0 · -0.6 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.15 ▼ -1.2 | 8.0 · -0.1 | 15.0 ▲ +1.3 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: no -4.0 pts at 4.0h
1.8Yes 52% ▲ +5.3 ptsopened 2.01.95No 48% ▼ -5.3 ptsopened 1.75
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.8 ▲ +5.3 | 1.95 ▼ -5.3 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.75 ▲ +6.0 | 2.0 ▼ -6.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.83 ▲ +3.9 | 1.85 ▼ -3.9 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.02 · +1.0 | 1.72 · -1.0 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.83 ▲ +2.7 | 1.95 ▼ -2.7 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off
1.29Over 72% · +0.0 ptsopened 1.293.34Under 28% · +0.0 ptsopened 3.34
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.29 · +0.0 | 3.34 · +0.0 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.25 ▲ +3.3 | 4.0 ▼ -3.3 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.2 ▲ +2.7 | 4.0 ▼ -2.7 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.27 ▲ +1.3 | 3.3 ▼ -1.3 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.29 ▲ +1.7 | 3.45 ▼ -1.7 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
1.14Home 82% P 84%8.0Draw 12% P 10%15.0Away 6% P 5%
Double Chance
1.03Real Madrid or Draw 47%1.08Real Madrid or Rayo Vallecano 45%5.5Draw or Rayo Vallecano 9%
Draw No Bet
1.041 93%13.02 7%
Both Teams To Score
1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.25Over 76% P 72%4.0Under 24% P 28%
Total Corners
15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%
Number of Cards
3.51.9Over 49% P 47%1.8Under 51% P 53%
4.52.2Over 42% P 32%1.61Under 58% P 68%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 82.5–85% · away 5–7.5% · 243 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 84% | 84% | 86% | +2.5 |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9% | -1.4 |
| Away | 5% | 6% | 5% | -1.1 |
In those fixtures: 3.7 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 70%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 477 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 71% | 70% | -1.4 |
Víctor García Verdura
- Career
- 60 matches · 4 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.48 (4.27 yellow · 0.17 red)
- Fouls / match
- 26.2 · 5.8 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.32
- Cards to home side
- 51%
Style in La Liga (5-year window · 60 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.17 | 5.08 | -1.40 | 11 |
| Fouls / match | 26.2 | 25.7 | +0.23 | |
| Fouls per card | 6.3 | 5.1 | +1.39 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.33 | 0.34 | -0.01 | 36 |
| Time added | 8.1 | 7.7 | +0.45 | 64 |
- First card
- 38' on average
- Card timing
- 12% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 50% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.15
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 22' | 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 38' | 3 |
| 2026-05-17 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 39' | 8 |
| 2026-05-10 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 71' | 8 |
| 2026-04-21 | 5 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 10' | 11 |
| 2026-04-11 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 59' | 12 |
| 2026-03-21 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 28' | 11 |
| 2026-03-08 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 43' | 9 |
| 2026-02-28 · Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 39' | 8 |
| 2026-01-31 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 21' | 7 |