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La Liga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

ValenciaFC Barcelona
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Capacity
49,430
Surface
grass
Attendance
47,319

Teams

Coaches
Carlos Corberán Vallet · Hans-Dieter Flick
Position
18 · 1
Formation
5-4-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
33.0° (feels 32.6°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
34%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 6600 28622 18 WWWWW
2 Real Madrid 6501 17611 15 WWLWW
3 Real Betis 6501 862 15 WLWWW
4 Atlético de Madrid 6411 1468 13 DWLWW
5 Sevilla 6411 963 13 WLDWW
6 Deportivo Alavés 6312 1165 10 DWWLL
7 Deportivo A Coruña 6231 972 9 DWWDL
8 Athletic Club 5212 761 7 LLWWD
9 Espanyol 7214 10100 7 LDWLL
10 Racing Santander 6213 1116-5 7 LWLWL
11 Rayo Vallecano 6213 1015-5 7 DLWLW
12 Real Sociedad 6213 611-5 7 LWDWL
13 Osasuna 6213 512-7 7 WWLLL
14 Villarreal 6123 1011-1 5 DLLLW
15 Levante 5122 79-2 5 LDWDL
16 Getafe 6123 37-4 5 WLDDL
17 Elche 7124 1117-6 5 LLDLW
18 Celta de Vigo 6042 36-3 4 LLDDD
19 Valencia 6114 210-8 4 LLLLW
20 Málaga 6033 311-8 3 DLDDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Valencia

WWDLL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 5.87–4.44 · xPts 7.86

  • L A Deportivo A Coruña 1–3 xG 1.24–1.46 ESP PL
  • L H Real Betis 0–1 xG 1.09–0.82 ESP PL
  • D H Celta de Vigo 0–0 xG 0.73–0.47 ESP PL
  • W H FC Barcelona 3–1 xG 1.67–1.02 ESP PL
  • W A Real Sociedad 4–3 xG 1.14–0.67 ESP PL

FC Barcelona

WLWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 16 GA 6 · xG 10.93–4.9 · xPts 10.04

  • W H Rayo Vallecano 5–2 xG 2.71–1.15 ESP PL
  • W H Athletic Club 2–0 xG 3.07–0.35 ESP PL
  • W A Elche 5–0 xG 2.96–0.69 ESP PL
  • L A Valencia 1–3 xG 1.02–1.67 ESP PL
  • W H Real Betis 3–1 xG 1.17–1.04 ESP PL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 43 matches since 2005

Valencia 612 draws25 FC Barcelona

Goals 48–102 · 3.49 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Valencia 11 draws8 FC Barcelona

Goals 9–32 · 4.1 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Valencia 10 draws4 FC Barcelona

Goals 5–21 · 5.2 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • L Valencia 0–5 FC Barcelona ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Valencia 3–1 FC Barcelona ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L FC Barcelona 6–0 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L FC Barcelona 7–1 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Valencia 1–2 FC Barcelona ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L FC Barcelona 4–2 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Valencia 1–1 FC Barcelona ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L FC Barcelona 1–0 Valencia ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Valencia 0–1 FC Barcelona ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Valencia 1–4 FC Barcelona neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricValencia all · 6Valencia at home · 3FC Barcelona all · 6FC Barcelona away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game0.673.00
W / D / L1 / 1 / 46 / 0 / 0
Goals for / match0.334.67
Goals against / match1.671.00
Clean sheets33%50%
Failed to score67%0%
Both teams scored17%50%
Over 2.533%83%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.733.55
xG against / match1.401.07
xG difference-0.682.47
Finishing vs xG-0.391.12
xPts / match1.002.48
Points vs xPts-0.330.52
Game state
Scored first17%83%
PPG when scoring first3.003.00
PPG when conceding first0.003.00
Came back from behind0%100%
Leads held100%100%
Minutes leading2%83%
Minutes level65%16%
Minutes trailing33%1%
First goal (min)5215
First goal conceded (min)4640
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half50%54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half60%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.171.33
Late goals against0.670.33
Style
Possession46%68%
Shots8.721.0
On target2.38.5
Shot conversion4%22%
Shots inside box58%77%
Big chances created0.76.7
Corners4.08.2
xG from set plays14%34%
Goals from headers0%0%
Pressure index7.025.0
Dominant minutes31.574.8
Pass accuracy82%90%
Fouls10.59.5
Cards2.001.33

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Valencia

0–15'02
16–30'12
31–45'00
46–60'02
61–75'00
76–90'14

FC Barcelona

0–15'41
16–30'51
31–45'40
46–60'31
61–75'41
76–90'82

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Valencia · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.23) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.60

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.236
Early press (0-15, level)-0.276
Late push (76+, level)-0.544
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.103

Game state

When level-0.236
When behind-0.264
10 min after conceding-0.604
10 min after scoring+0.462

Situations

At home-0.323
Away-0.163
4+ days rest-0.265

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.224
Evenly matched-0.223
As underdog-0.253

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.386
Conceded late (76+)+0.055

Congested vs rested +0.13 · Ahead vs level +0.06 · Behind vs level -0.04

FC Barcelona · 7 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.70) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.16

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.707
Early press (0-15, level)+0.437

Game state

When ahead+0.737
When level+0.517
10 min after conceding+0.563
10 min after scoring+1.167

Situations

At home+0.874
Away+0.443
3 days rest or fewer+0.882
4+ days rest+0.655

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.663
v bottom-tier opponents+0.943
As favourite+0.707

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.327
Conceded when ahead-0.327
Conceded late (76+)-0.513

Congested vs rested +0.23 · Ahead vs level +0.22 · Behind vs level +1.08

Valencia

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
5-4-14 67%0.250.252.250.891.61
4-4-1-11 17%0.00.01.00.090.98
4-2-3-11 17%3.01.00.00.690.99

FC Barcelona

Current: unbeaten 7 · wins 7 · scoring 9 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-34 67%3.04.51.03.91.15
4-2-3-12 33%3.05.01.02.830.92

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.1 pts at 9.2h

11.5Home 8% ▼ -2.7 ptsopened 8.636.21Draw 16% · +0.2 ptsopened 6.211.28Away 76% ▲ +2.5 ptsopened 1.31
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle11.5 ▼ -2.76.21 · +0.21.28 ▲ +2.55m
bet36510.0 ▼ -2.06.5 ▼ -3.01.25 ▲ +5.05m
Betfair10.5 ▼ -1.26.0 · -0.91.25 ▲ +2.15m
BetVictor10.5 ▼ -2.46.5 ▼ -2.81.25 ▲ +5.25m
Coral9.0 ▼ -1.46.5 ▼ -2.71.25 ▲ +4.15m
Ladbrokes9.0 ▼ -1.46.5 ▼ -2.71.25 ▲ +4.15m
Unibet10.0 ▼ -1.06.25 ▼ -1.11.26 ▲ +2.15m
WilliamHill10.0 ▼ -3.15.8 ▼ -2.51.25 ▲ +5.65m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

10.0Home 9% P 8%6.5Draw 15% P 16%1.25Away 76% P 76%

Double Chance

3.75Valencia or Draw 13%1.11Valencia or Barcelona 43%1.06Draw or Barcelona 45%

Draw No Bet

8.01 12%1.082 88%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 70%3.2Under 30% P 30%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 54%2.0Under 46% P 46%
4.52.1Over 44% P 36%1.66Under 56% P 64%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 7.5–10% · away 75–77.5% · 163 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home8%9%7%-1.3
Draw16%15%11%-4.1
Away76%76%82%+5.4

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 51% · over 2.5 63%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.570%69%69%+0.6

Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Career
117 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
5.96 (5.59 yellow · 0.25 red)
Fouls / match
26.3 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.35
Cards to home side
48%

Style in La Liga (5-year window · 95 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.655.07+0.9889
Fouls / match26.625.7+0.50
Fouls per card4.75.1-0.75 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.33-0.4829
Time added8.37.7+0.6686
First card
34' on average
Card timing
9% in first 30' · 45% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.35

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-28 50 230 45'5
2026-08-21 60 210 46'7
2026-05-17 40 250 10'10
2026-05-12 61 290 49'11
2026-05-02 · FC Barcelona 40 190 24'9
2026-04-11 80 191 36'12
2026-03-21 90 340 45'10
2026-03-06 30 160 31'12
2026-02-28 · FC Barcelona 30 200 53'13
2026-02-15 70 260 16'6