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La Liga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

ATHATM
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Capacity
53,289
Surface
grass
Attendance
48,425

Teams

Coaches
Edin Terzic · D. Simeone
Position
13 · 4
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2

Referee

José Luis Munuera Montero

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
27.9° (feels 29.1°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
57%

Where to watch · 110

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 6600 28622 18 WWWWW
2 Real Madrid 6501 17611 15 WWLWW
3 Real Betis 6501 862 15 WLWWW
4 Atlético de Madrid 6411 1468 13 DWLWW
5 Sevilla 6411 963 13 WLDWW
6 Deportivo Alavés 6312 1165 10 DWWLL
7 Deportivo A Coruña 6231 972 9 DWWDL
8 Espanyol 6213 972 7 LLDWL
9 Athletic Club 5212 761 7 LLWWD
10 Racing Santander 6213 1116-5 7 LWLWL
11 Rayo Vallecano 6213 1015-5 7 DLWLW
12 Real Sociedad 6213 611-5 7 LWDWL
13 Osasuna 6213 512-7 7 WWLLL
14 Villarreal 6123 1011-1 5 DLLLW
15 Levante 5122 79-2 5 LDWDL
16 Getafe 6123 37-4 5 WLDDL
17 Celta de Vigo 6042 36-3 4 LLDDD
18 Valencia 6114 210-8 4 LLLLW
19 Málaga 6033 311-8 3 DLDDL
20 Elche 6024 816-8 2 LLLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Athletic Club

DLLLW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 10 · xG 8.35–6.16 · xPts 8.37

  • W A Celta de Vigo 2–0 xG 2.23–0.88 ESP PL
  • L A FC Barcelona 0–2 xG 0.35–3.07 ESP PL
  • L H Sevilla 1–3 xG 1.58–0.54 ESP PL
  • L A Real Madrid 2–4 xG 1.0–1.5 ESP PL
  • D H Celta de Vigo 1–1 xG 3.19–0.17 ESP PL

Atlético de Madrid

WLWDW 3W 1D 1L · 10 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 8 · xG 6.8–9.77 · xPts 5.58

  • W A Sevilla 3–1 xG 1.2–1.46 ESP PL
  • D H Villarreal 2–2 xG 1.14–3.16 ESP PL
  • W H Málaga 2–0 xG 0.97–0.35 ESP PL
  • L A Villarreal 1–5 xG 1.01–2.47 ESP PL
  • W H Girona 1–0 xG 2.49–2.34 ESP PL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 44 matches since 2005

Athletic Club 125 draws27 Atlético de Madrid

Goals 45–68 · 2.57 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Athletic Club 40 draws6 Atlético de Madrid

Goals 11–10 · 2.1 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 30%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Athletic Club 20 draws3 Atlético de Madrid

Goals 6–5 · 2.2 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Athletic Club 3–0 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Atlético de Madrid 3–2 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Athletic Club 1–0 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Atlético de Madrid 1–0 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Athletic Club 0–1 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Atlético de Madrid 3–1 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Athletic Club 2–0 Atlético de Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Atlético de Madrid 1–0 Athletic Club ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Athletic Club 0–1 Atlético de Madrid neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Athletic Club 2–0 Atlético de Madrid neutral ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricAthletic Club all · 5Athletic Club at home · 3Atlético de Madrid all · 6Atlético de Madrid away · 3
Results
Matches56
Points per game1.402.17
W / D / L2 / 1 / 24 / 1 / 1
Goals for / match1.402.33
Goals against / match1.201.00
Clean sheets40%50%
Failed to score20%17%
Both teams scored40%33%
Over 2.540%83%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.511.67
xG against / match1.451.17
xG difference0.060.50
Finishing vs xG-0.110.66
xPts / match1.531.66
Points vs xPts-0.130.51
Game state
Scored first40%83%
PPG when scoring first3.002.60
PPG when conceding first0.330.00
Came back from behind33%50%
Leads held100%80%
Minutes leading25%34%
Minutes level40%56%
Minutes trailing35%9%
First goal (min)5448
First goal conceded (min)3459
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half71%71%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%100%
Late goals for (76'+)0.401.00
Late goals against0.200.33
Style
Possession49%57%
Shots14.016.8
On target4.46.0
Shot conversion10%14%
Shots inside box69%60%
Big chances created2.63.0
Corners6.45.3
xG from set plays24%23%
Goals from headers14%0%
Pressure index16.718.0
Dominant minutes55.864.2
Pass accuracy82%87%
Fouls10.411.3
Cards2.001.83

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Athletic Club

0–15'01
16–30'20
31–45'01
46–60'23
61–75'10
76–90'21

Atlético de Madrid

0–15'10
16–30'20
31–45'10
46–60'22
61–75'22
76–90'62

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Athletic Club · 5 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.09

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.405
Early press (0-15, level)+0.435
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.353

Game state

When ahead+0.222
When level+0.595
When behind+0.323
10 min after conceding-0.203
10 min after scoring+1.094

Situations

At home+0.613
Away+0.112
4+ days rest+0.314

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.392
v mid-tier opponents+0.872
As favourite+1.032
Evenly matched+0.262

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.065
Conceded when ahead+0.062
Conceded late (76+)-0.175

Congested vs rested +0.44 · Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.27

Atlético de Madrid · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.38) · stands out: v mid-tier opponents +0.61

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.387
Early press (0-15, level)+0.477
Late push (76+, level)+1.242
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.403

Game state

When ahead+0.436
When level+0.357
When behind+0.363
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+0.576

Situations

At home+0.573
Away+0.234
4+ days rest+0.226

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.614
As favourite+0.415

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.237
Conceded when ahead-0.266
Conceded late (76+)-0.486

Congested vs rested +1.46 · Ahead vs level +0.08 · Behind vs level +0.01

Athletic Club

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 100%1.41.41.21.511.45

Atlético de Madrid

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 3 · clean sheets 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-24 67%1.752.251.51.781.56
3-4-2-11 17%3.03.00.01.90.39
4-1-4-11 17%3.02.00.00.970.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.1 pts at 2.9d

3.12Home 31% ▼ -2.3 ptsopened 2.893.35Draw 29% ▲ +1.3 ptsopened 3.482.45Away 40% ▲ +1.0 ptsopened 2.5
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle3.12 ▼ -2.33.35 ▲ +1.32.45 ▲ +1.05m
bet3652.7 ▲ +1.53.25 ▲ +1.52.62 ▼ -3.05m
Betfair3.1 ▼ -2.53.4 ▲ +1.52.3 ▲ +1.05m
BetVictor2.9 ▼ -1.13.4 · -0.22.4 ▲ +1.25m
Coral2.8 · +0.03.4 · +0.02.45 · +0.05m
Ladbrokes2.75 · +0.43.4 · -0.22.45 · -0.25m
Unibet3.05 ▼ -1.13.45 · -0.82.3 ▲ +2.05m
WilliamHill2.9 ▼ -1.93.25 ▲ +1.22.4 · +0.75m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 31%3.25Draw 29% P 29%2.62Away 36% P 40%

Double Chance

1.57Athletic Club or Draw 30%1.33Athletic Club or Atletico Madrid 35%1.36Draw or Atletico Madrid 35%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 50%1.9Under 50% P 50%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.69 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

4.52.0Over 46% P 42%1.72Under 54% P 58%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 37.5–40% · 556 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home31%31%31%-0.2
Draw29%30%31%+1.5
Away40%39%38%-1.3

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 44%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%51%51%-0.1

José Luis Munuera Montero

Career
199 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.4 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
52%

Style in La Liga (5-year window · 97 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.865.08-0.3036
Fouls / match25.525.7-0.26
Fouls per card5.25.1-0.01 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.34-0.5718
Time added7.87.7+0.1450
First card
31' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-20 30 270 45'11
2026-07-23 20 160 7'5
2026-05-23 40 280 9'8
2026-05-17 40 310 48'5
2026-05-08 21 240 41'10
2026-05-02 · Atlético de Madrid 40 210 29'8
2026-04-22 20 231 59'11
2026-04-03 41 260 22'6
2026-03-22 · Atlético de Madrid 51 171 27'11
2026-03-07 · Athletic Club 30 200 50'9