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La Liga · Matchweek 1

Momentum

Real MadridRSO
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
1

Venue

Stadium
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Capacity
84,744
Surface
grass
Attendance
72,226

Teams

Coaches
José Mourinho · Pellegrino Matarazzo
Position
7 · 19
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
22.3° (feels 21.7°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
46%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 FC Barcelona 6600 28622 18 WWWWW
2 Real Madrid 6501 17611 15 WWLWW
3 Real Betis 6501 862 15 WLWWW
4 Atlético de Madrid 6411 1468 13 DWLWW
5 Sevilla 6411 963 13 WLDWW
6 Deportivo Alavés 6312 1165 10 DWWLL
7 Deportivo A Coruña 6231 972 9 DWWDL
8 Athletic Club 5212 761 7 LLWWD
9 Espanyol 7214 10100 7 LDWLL
10 Racing Santander 6213 1116-5 7 LWLWL
11 Rayo Vallecano 6213 1015-5 7 DLWLW
12 Real Sociedad 6213 611-5 7 LWDWL
13 Osasuna 6213 512-7 7 WWLLL
14 Villarreal 6123 1011-1 5 DLLLW
15 Levante 5122 79-2 5 LDWDL
16 Getafe 6123 37-4 5 WLDDL
17 Elche 7124 1117-6 5 LLDLW
18 Celta de Vigo 6042 36-3 4 LLDDD
19 Valencia 6114 210-8 4 LLLLW
20 Málaga 6033 311-8 3 DLDDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation

Real Madrid

LWWWW 4W 0D 1L · 12 pts (2.4 ppg) · GF 9 GA 5 · xG 7.62–5.25 · xPts 8.33

  • W A Espanyol 2–1 xG 2.37–0.93 ESP PL
  • W H Athletic Club 4–2 xG 1.5–1.0 ESP PL
  • W A Sevilla 1–0 xG 1.37–1.06 ESP PL
  • W H Real Oviedo 2–0 xG 1.7–0.99 ESP PL
  • L A FC Barcelona 0–2 xG 0.67–1.28 ESP PL

Real Sociedad

DDLDL 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 9 · xG 5.66–8.73 · xPts 5.06

  • L A Real Betis 0–1 xG 0.99–1.71 ESP PL
  • D A Espanyol 1–1 xG 1.14–1.79 ESP PL
  • L H Valencia 3–4 xG 0.67–1.14 ESP PL
  • D A Girona 1–1 xG 0.52–2.76 ESP PL
  • D H Real Betis 2–2 xG 2.34–1.33 ESP PL

All meetings · 37 matches since 2005

Real Madrid 276 draws4 Real Sociedad

Goals 89–38 · 3.43 per match · BTTS 62% · over 2.5 65%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Real Madrid 81 draws1 Real Sociedad

Goals 21–7 · 2.8 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Real Madrid 50 draws0 Real Sociedad

Goals 14–3 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • W Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Sociedad 1–2 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Madrid 2–0 Real Sociedad ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Sociedad 0–2 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad ESP PL · Regular Season
  • L Real Sociedad 2–0 Real Madrid ESP PL · Regular Season
  • D Real Madrid 0–0 Real Sociedad ESP PL · Regular Season
  • W Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad ESP PL · Regular Season
MetricReal Madrid all · 6Real Madrid at home · 3Real Sociedad all · 6Real Sociedad away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game2.501.17
W / D / L5 / 0 / 12 / 1 / 3
Goals for / match2.831.00
Goals against / match1.001.83
Clean sheets17%17%
Failed to score17%50%
Both teams scored67%50%
Over 2.583%67%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.720.95
xG against / match0.991.69
xG difference1.73-0.74
Finishing vs xG0.110.05
xPts / match2.360.97
Points vs xPts0.140.20
Game state
Scored first83%33%
PPG when scoring first3.003.00
PPG when conceding first0.000.00
Came back from behind0%0%
Leads held100%100%
Minutes leading48%25%
Minutes level50%63%
Minutes trailing2%12%
First goal (min)2120
First goal conceded (min)5560
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half41%33%
Goals conceded in 2nd half67%82%
Late goals for (76'+)0.830.17
Late goals against0.330.67
Style
Possession55%50%
Shots20.712.2
On target8.35.0
Shot conversion14%8%
Shots inside box73%56%
Big chances created4.71.7
Corners7.87.7
xG from set plays26%18%
Goals from headers7%0%
Pressure index21.310.2
Dominant minutes67.747.0
Pass accuracy91%85%
Fouls8.812.3
Cards1.672.33

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Real Madrid

0–15'20
16–30'51
31–45'31
46–60'11
61–75'11
76–90'52

Real Sociedad

0–15'20
16–30'00
31–45'22
46–60'01
61–75'14
76–90'14

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Real Madrid · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.48) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.487
Early press (0-15, level)+0.317
Late push (76+, level)+0.733

Game state

When ahead+0.346
When level+0.677
10 min after conceding-0.016
10 min after scoring+1.026

Situations

At home+0.244
Away+0.703
4+ days rest+0.456

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.693
v bottom-tier opponents+0.702
As favourite+0.487

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.107
Conceded when ahead+0.056
Conceded late (76+)-0.496

Congested vs rested +0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.33 · Behind vs level -1.19

Real Sociedad · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.52

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.077
Early press (0-15, level)-0.207
Late push (76+, level)-0.523
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.244

Game state

When ahead+0.252
When level-0.107
When behind-0.324
10 min after conceding-0.316
10 min after scoring+0.104

Situations

With ten men+0.032
At home-0.064
Away-0.093
4+ days rest-0.116

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.243
v mid-tier opponents+0.092
As favourite+0.123
As underdog-0.234

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.117
Conceded when ahead-0.322
Conceded late (76+)+0.147

Congested vs rested +0.28 · Ahead vs level +0.35 · Behind vs level -0.22

Real Madrid

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 3 · scoring 3 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%2.52.831.02.720.99

Real Sociedad

Current: winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%0.250.252.00.731.69
4-4-22 33%3.02.51.51.41.7

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 119 snapshots · last 1.0h before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.9 pts at 3.0h

1.21Home 79% ▲ +11.1 ptsopened 1.387.21Draw 13% ▼ -5.1 ptsopened 5.1213.4Away 7% ▼ -6.0 ptsopened 7.16
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.21 ▲ +11.17.21 ▼ -5.113.4 ▼ -6.01.0h
bet3651.18 ▲ +12.97.5 ▼ -5.913.0 ▼ -7.01.0h
Betfair1.17 ▲ +10.77.0 ▼ -5.114.0 ▼ -5.61.0h
BetVictor1.18 ▲ +13.07.5 ▼ -7.213.0 ▼ -5.81.0h
Coral1.22 ▲ +10.27.0 ▼ -5.411.0 ▼ -4.91.0h
Ladbrokes1.2 ▲ +11.27.0 ▼ -5.311.0 ▼ -5.91.0h
Unibet1.19 ▲ +10.87.0 ▼ -5.413.0 ▼ -5.31.0h
WilliamHill1.22 ▲ +9.66.0 ▼ -4.811.0 ▼ -4.91.0h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 1.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.18Home 80% P 79%7.5Draw 13% P 13%13.0Away 7% P 7%

Double Chance

1.05Real Madrid or Draw 45%1.12Real Madrid or Real Sociedad 43%4.0Draw or Real Sociedad 12%

Draw No Bet

1.051 91%11.02 9%

Both Teams To Score

1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 70%3.2Under 30% P 30%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 24%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

4.52.1Over 44% P 40%1.66Under 56% P 60%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 77.5–80% · away 5–7.5% · 360 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home79%79%82%+3.0
Draw13%14%13%-1.5
Away7%7%5%-1.5

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 63%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.570%69%69%+0.6

Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Career
62 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
5.97 (5.63 yellow · 0.29 red)
Fouls / match
25.3 · 4.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
48%

Style in La Liga (5-year window · 61 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.795.07+1.2193
Fouls / match25.525.7-0.26
Fouls per card4.45.1-1.16 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.280.33-0.6811
Time added7.77.7+0.0539
First card
30' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.5

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-07-14 30 140 5'3
2026-05-23 30 180 22'9
2026-05-13 30 200 81'8
2026-05-09 90 281 12'10
2026-04-27 61 270 70'8
2026-04-22 · Real Sociedad 90 351 27'11
2026-04-04 82 260 22'9
2026-02-22 21 230 26'12
2026-02-15 50 281 26'7
2026-02-08 40 150 25'6