KickoffDNA
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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

Schalke 04Elversberg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Veltins-Arena, Gelsenkirchen
Capacity
62,271
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Miron Muslić · Vincent Wagner
Position
11 · 6
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Robin Braun

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
19.3° (feels 19.1°)
Wind
6.0
Humidity
67%

Where to watch · 70

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SC Freiburg 3300 1019 9 WWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 3300 826 9 WWW
3 FC Augsburg 3210 936 7 WWD
4 FC Bayern München 3210 725 7 WDW
5 RB Leipzig 3201 936 6 WLW
6 Elversberg 3201 871 6 WWL
7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3111 853 4 LWD
8 FSV Mainz 05 3111 633 4 DWL
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 3111 78-1 4 DLW
10 Werder Bremen 3111 56-1 4 LWD
11 Schalke 04 3111 34-1 4 LDW
12 FC Köln 3111 57-2 4 WLD
13 TSG Hoffenheim 3102 67-1 3 LLW
14 VfB Stuttgart 3102 68-2 3 LWL
15 Paderborn 3012 04-4 1 DLL
16 FC Union Berlin 3012 410-6 1 DLL
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3003 312-9 0 LLL
18 Hamburger SV 3003 012-12 0 LLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Schalke 04

LDW 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 3 GA 4 · xG 4.35–7.95 · xPts 2.34

  • W A FC Union Berlin 3–1 xG 2.42–2.21 GER BI
  • D H FC Bayern München 0–0 xG 0.39–1.92 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–3 xG 1.54–3.81 GER BI

Elversberg

WWL 2W 0D 1L · 6 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 8 GA 7 · xG 5.0–7.05 · xPts 2.98

  • L H FC Bayern München 1–2 xG 1.03–2.38 GER BI
  • W A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3 xG 2.69–2.73 GER BI
  • W H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–2 xG 1.27–1.94 GER BI

first meeting No meetings in the last five years

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before · · thin data — probabilities rounded to 5%

Match result

30%Schalke 04 P 47%20%Draw P 27%50%Elversberg P 27%

Over / under 2.5

70%Over 2.5 P 63%30%Under 2.5 P 37%

Both teams to score

70%Yes30%No

Expected

Schalke 04 goals
1.53 (0–3)
Elversberg goals
2.09 (0–4)
Corners
12.8 (8–18)
Cards
4.19 (1–7)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

40.8%Schalke 0425.2%Draw34.1%Elversberg

Over / under 2.5

57.4%Over 2.542.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.6%Yes42.4%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

No previous meetings on record.

MetricSchalke 04 all · 3Schalke 04 at home · 1Elversberg all · 3Elversberg away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Schalke 04 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: when level -0.18

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.073

Game state

When level-0.183
10 min after conceding-0.402

Situations

Away+0.092
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

Evenly matched+0.092

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.423
Conceded late (76+)+0.943

Ahead vs level +0.29 · Behind vs level -0.09

Elversberg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.193
Early press (0-15, level)-0.333
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.732

Game state

When ahead-0.162
When level-0.253
When behind-0.152
10 min after conceding-0.263
10 min after scoring+0.423

Situations

At home-0.422
4+ days rest-0.172

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.422
As underdog-0.193

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.413
Conceded when ahead+0.212
Conceded late (76+)+0.663

Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level +0.10

Schalke 04

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 67%1.51.52.01.983.01
5-4-11 33%1.00.00.00.391.92

Elversberg

Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 100%2.02.672.331.672.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 72 snapshots · last 2.0d before kick-off

2.07Home 47% · -0.1 ptsopened 2.073.62Draw 27% · -0.3 ptsopened 3.583.63Away 27% · +0.4 ptsopened 3.69
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.07 · -0.13.62 · -0.33.63 · +0.42.0d
bet3652.0 ▲ +1.93.7 · -0.33.5 ▼ -1.62.0d
Betfair2.05 · -0.63.7 · -0.53.6 ▲ +1.02.0d
BetVictor1.95 · +0.03.7 · +0.03.13 · +0.02.0d
Coral2.05 · +0.33.8 · -0.53.3 · +0.22.0d
Ladbrokes2.0 · +0.93.8 · -0.83.25 · -0.12.0d
WilliamHill2.0 · +0.23.75 · -0.23.1 · +0.12.0d

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 48.5h before kick-off · stale. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.0Home 47% P 47%3.7Draw 26% P 27%3.5Away 27% P 27%

Double Chance

1.28Schalke or Draw 37%1.28Schalke or Elversberg 37%1.8Draw or Elversberg 26%

Draw No Bet

1.51 62%2.52 38%

Both Teams To Score

1.44Yes 65%2.62No 35%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 63%2.5Under 38% P 37%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 34%4.7512 - 14 19%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 60%2.2Under 42% P 40%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home47%46%44%-1.8
Draw27%28%30%+1.8
Away27%26%26%+0.0

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.563%64%63%-0.4

Robin Braun

Career
13 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.0 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
21.5 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.54
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 13 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.14+0.8985
Fouls / match21.522.3-0.86
Fouls per card4.75.4-1.25 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.540.32+2.37100
Time added8.56.8+1.6696
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
53% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-05 40 200 4'8
2026-04-26 10 290 65'7
2026-03-21 80 231 25'8
2026-02-20 50 290 12'14
2026-01-31 40 291 8'9
2025-12-14 40 151 50'8
2025-11-22 51 230 34'7
2025-10-25 10 170 37'4
2025-09-27 40 161 24'8