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Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

Momentum

SVWFC Augsburg
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen
Capacity
42,100
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Daniel Thioune · Manuel Baum
Position
10 · 3
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Bastian Dankert

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
17.4° (feels 17.2°)
Wind
7.0
Humidity
78%

Where to watch · 72

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SC Freiburg 3300 1019 9 WWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 3300 826 9 WWW
3 FC Augsburg 3210 936 7 WWD
4 FC Bayern München 3210 725 7 WDW
5 RB Leipzig 3201 936 6 WLW
6 Elversberg 3201 871 6 WWL
7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3111 853 4 LWD
8 FSV Mainz 05 3111 633 4 DWL
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 3111 78-1 4 DLW
10 Werder Bremen 3111 56-1 4 LWD
11 Schalke 04 3111 34-1 4 LDW
12 FC Köln 3111 57-2 4 WLD
13 TSG Hoffenheim 3102 67-1 3 LLW
14 VfB Stuttgart 3102 68-2 3 LWL
15 Paderborn 3012 04-4 1 DLL
16 FC Union Berlin 3012 410-6 1 DLL
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3003 312-9 0 LLL
18 Hamburger SV 3003 012-12 0 LLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Werder Bremen

LWD 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 5 GA 6 · xG 2.53–5.49 · xPts 2.19

  • D A FC Köln 1–1 xG 1.17–1.97 GER BI
  • W H RB Leipzig 3–1 xG 0.7–1.61 GER BI
  • L A SC Freiburg 1–4 xG 0.66–1.91 GER BI

FC Augsburg

WWD 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 9 GA 3 · xG 6.23–6.55 · xPts 3.88

  • D H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 xG 0.88–2.8 GER BI
  • W A Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1 xG 1.54–2.21 GER BI
  • W H Schalke 04 3–0 xG 3.81–1.54 GER BI

full sample 8 meetings 2022–2026 · 1 on neutral ground

Recurring referee: Tobias Welz · 2 of these meetings

Last 8

Werder Bremen 22 draws4 FC Augsburg

Goals 9–10 · Werder Bremen hosting: 1W 0D 2L · FC Augsburg hosting: 1W 2D 1L

At Wohninvest Weserstadion: 2 meetings · Werder Bremen 0 · draws 0 · FC Augsburg 2 · 3.0 goals per match · last away win May 2026

All-time since 2011: 28 meetings · Werder Bremen 10 · draws 4 · FC Augsburg 14

  • Werder Bremen haven't beaten FC Augsburg since Apr 2024
  • FC Augsburg unbeaten in the last 4 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

MetricFixtureLeagueΔn
Goals per match2.383.26-0.888
Both teams score38%62%-24%8
Over 2.5 goals50%65%-15%8
Corners9.89.9-0.18
Cards4.44.0+0.48

1 goalless · 2 with 4+ goals · 1.25 first-half goals per match

How these games go · 8 with event data

Werder BremenFC Augsburg
Scored first3 of 84 of 8
Scored first and won24
Won from behind00

first goal on average in minute 29 · a side came back in 1 · goal after the 75th minute in 1 · penalty scored in 1

When the goals come · all goals, 7 meetings

0-15'3
16-30'3
31-45'4
46-60'3
61-75'5
76-90'1

3 equalisers · 1 penalty · 4 headers

Expected goals · last 5 with xG

Werder Bremen 1.40 xGper match1.30 xG FC Augsburg

Deserved on xG: Werder Bremen 2 · level 2 · FC Augsburg 1 — actual wins in those games 1 / 2

Against the market · 8 with closing odds

Favourite won 2 (25%), drew 2, upset 4 · market favoured Werder Bremen 4×, FC Augsburg 4× · avg favourite 49%, avg price of the actual result 28%

Fixture specialists

  • 3 Samuel Essende FC Augsburg · in 2 games · last Jan 2025
  • 2 Anton Kade FC Augsburg · last May 2026
  • 2 Romano Schmid Werder Bremen · in 2 games · last May 2026
  • 2 Marvin Ducksch Werder Bremen · in 2 games · last Apr 2024
  • 1 Kristijan Jakic FC Augsburg · last May 2026

Last meeting · 2026-05-02 · GER BI

Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg · ref Daniel Siebert

  • 24' Anton Kade assist Michael Gregoritsch 0–1
  • 45+3' Anton Kade assist Dimitrios Giannoulis 0–2
  • 64' Romano Schmid assist Olivier Deman 1–2
  • 69' Kristijan Jakic assist Marius Wolf 1–3

xG 1.04 – 2.36 · corners 10 · cards 2

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

38.6%Werder Bremen P 40%24.6%Draw P 25%36.8%FC Augsburg P 35%

Over / under 2.5

58.4%Over 2.5 P 68%41.6%Under 2.5 P 32%

Both teams to score

61.1%Yes38.9%No

Expected

Werder Bremen goals
1.54 (0–3)
FC Augsburg goals
1.49 (0–3)
Corners
11.51 (7–16)
Cards
4.55 (2–8)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

40.4%Werder Bremen24.9%Draw34.7%FC Augsburg

Over / under 2.5

60.0%Over 2.540.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

60.4%Yes39.6%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 28 matches since 2011

Werder Bremen 104 draws14 FC Augsburg

Goals 41–45 · 3.07 per match · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 64%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Werder Bremen 32 draws5 FC Augsburg

Goals 11–12 · 2.3 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 40%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Werder Bremen 12 draws2 FC Augsburg

Goals 6–7 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Werder Bremen 1–3 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 0–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 0–2 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Augsburg 2–2 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Augsburg 0–3 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 2–0 FC Augsburg GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 2–1 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Werder Bremen 0–1 FC Augsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Augsburg 2–0 Werder Bremen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Werder Bremen 2–0 FC Augsburg neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricWerder Bremen all · 3Werder Bremen at home · 1FC Augsburg all · 3FC Augsburg away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Werder Bremen · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.063

Game state

When level-0.183
When behind+0.412
10 min after conceding-0.493
10 min after scoring-0.302

Situations

Away+0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.462
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.403
Conceded late (76+)+0.202

Ahead vs level -0.41 · Behind vs level +0.60

FC Augsburg · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.17) · stands out: when level -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.173
Early press (0-15, level)-0.343

Game state

When ahead+0.113
When level-0.493
When behind-0.482
10 min after conceding-0.592
10 min after scoring+0.453

Situations

At home-0.172
4+ days rest-0.173

Opposition

As underdog-0.332

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.523
Conceded when ahead+0.173
Conceded late (76+)+0.323

Ahead vs level +0.59 · Behind vs level +0.00

Werder Bremen

Current: unbeaten 2 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 10

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-12 67%2.02.01.00.931.79
4-3-31 33%0.01.04.00.661.91

FC Augsburg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 67%2.02.51.02.352.17
5-3-21 33%3.04.01.01.542.21

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 106 snapshots · last 14.5h before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.2 pts at 21.5h

2.41Home 40% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 2.33.89Draw 25% · +1.0 ptsopened 4.052.76Away 35% · +1.0 ptsopened 2.84
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.41 ▼ -1.93.89 · +1.02.76 · +1.014.5h
bet3652.35 · +0.53.8 · -0.62.7 · +0.114.5h
Betfair2.38 · -0.03.9 ▼ -1.22.75 ▲ +1.214.5h
BetVictor2.25 ▼ -1.13.8 · -0.72.55 ▲ +1.814.5h
Coral2.25 · +0.84.0 ▼ -1.32.7 · +0.514.5h
Ladbrokes2.25 · +0.73.9 ▼ -1.12.7 · +0.414.5h
Unibet2.3 · +0.03.8 · +0.02.65 · +0.014.5h
WilliamHill2.3 · -1.03.7 · -0.02.62 · +1.014.5h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 14.5h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 40% P 40%3.8Draw 25% P 25%2.7Away 35% P 35%

Double Chance

1.44Werder Bremen or Draw 33%1.25Werder Bremen or Augsburg 38%1.57Draw or Augsburg 30%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.36Yes 69%3.0No 31%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 68%3.0Under 32% P 32%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.9Over 49% P 48%1.8Under 51% P 52%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–50% · away 30–40% · 1,184 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home40%42%42%+0.7
Draw25%27%25%-2.3
Away35%31%33%+1.6

In those fixtures: 2.9 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 56%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.568%69%69%+0.6

Bastian Dankert

Career
206 matches · 15 seasons
Cards / match
4.13 (3.94 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match
24.4 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.23
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 65 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.894.14-0.7222
Fouls / match22.922.3+0.47
Fouls per card6.25.4+1.25 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.180.32-1.647
Time added6.26.8-0.7515
First card
38' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.11

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-29 60 210 11'12
2026-05-16 · Werder Bremen 13 6
2026-05-03 20 160 57'8
2026-04-18 10 140 40'5
2026-04-04 40 230 42'7
2026-03-14 · FC Augsburg 14 9
2026-03-01 50 201 31'10
2026-02-14 · Werder Bremen 40 161 28'9
2026-01-25 30 141 62'7
2026-01-10 20 170 19'5