Hamburger SV v FC Köln

Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

Hamburger SVHamburger SV

–

FC KölnFC Köln

Momentum

– Hamburger SVFC Köln –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

Waiting for statistics…

Season context

Hamburger SV	at home	Stat	league	away	FC Köln
45.0 #13	–	Ball possession	50.0	–	43.3 #14
8.7 #18	–	Shots total	15.7	–	16.7 #7
2.7 #17	–	Shots on target	5.4	–	5.0 #14
4.0 #13	–	Corners	5.7	–	7.3 #3
15.3 #2	–	Fouls	11.2	–	9.3 #16
2.0 #4	–	Offsides	1.6	–	0.3 #17
14.0 #12	–	Tackles	15.7	–	12.7 #15
84.0 #14	–	Attacks	100.5	–	86.0 #12
35.7 #16	–	Dangerous attacks	51.1	–	49.3 #8
396.7 #13	–	Passes	453.6	–	395.0 #14
1.3 #11	–	Yellowcards	1.6	–	1.7 #7
–	–	Assists	1.8	–	1.0 #12
– #17	–	Btts	59.3	–	– #1
– #10	–	Cleansheet	24.1	–	– #10
– #11	–	Draw	18.5	–	– #1
0.7 #18	–	Expected goals	1.8	–	2.0 #8
-0.7 #17	–	Expected goals difference	0.2	–	-0.3 #14
– #1	–	Failed to score	24.1	–	– #8
0.0 #17	0.0	Goals	1.9	1.0	1.7 #12
4.0 #1	5.0	Goals conceded	1.9	4.0	2.3 #6
0.7 #3	–	Injury time goals	0.5	–	–
10.0 #8	–	Interceptions	10.3	–	8.7 #13
– #1	–	Lost	40.7	–	– #7
–	–	Penalties scored	0.0	–	0.0 #1
6.4 #18	–	Rating	6.9	–	6.7 #14
2.3 #16	–	Shots blocked	4.5	–	5.0 #5
4.7 #18	–	Shots insidebox	10.4	–	11.7 #5
3.7 #16	–	Shots off target	5.8	–	6.7 #6
4.0 #14	–	Shots outsidebox	5.3	–	5.0 #9
– #15	–	Win	40.7	–	– #7

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.

League this season · 2026/2027

Played: 27 of 306
Goals / match: 3.85 (home 2.37 · away 1.48)
Home / draw / away: 52% · 19% · 30%
BTTS · over 2.5: 59% · 81%
Cards / match: 3.26 (reds 0.07)

Lineups

Waiting for lineups…

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Hamburger SV · Last 365 days

Fábio Vieira 20 · Attacking Midfield

Rating 7.15 (88th pct) · G+A 7 + 5 (30% of team goals) · 72% of minutes

Team 1.08 ppg with (24) · 1.1 without (10)

Miro Muheim 28 · Left Back

Rating 6.99 (86th pct) · G+A 0 + 4 (10% of team goals) · 71% of minutes

Team 1.12 ppg with (24) · 1.0 without (10)

Nicolai Remberg 21 · Defensive Midfield

Rating 6.87 (54th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (5% of team goals) · 94% of minutes

All key players

FC Köln · Last 365 days

Ragnar Ache 9 · Attacker

Rating 6.94 (62th pct) · G+A 7 + 3 (22% of team goals) · 60% of minutes

Team 0.9 ppg with (20) · 0.79 without (14)

Said El Mala 10 · Left Wing

Rating 6.78 (37th pct) · G+A 13 + 4 (37% of team goals) · 64% of minutes

Team 0.95 ppg with (21) · 0.69 without (13)

Tom Krauß 5 · Defensive Midfield

Rating 6.82 (47th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (4% of team goals) · 64% of minutes

Team 0.62 ppg with (21) · 1.23 without (13)

All key players

Competition

Stage: Regular Season
Round: 4

Venue

Stadium: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Capacity: 57,000
Surface: grass

Teams

Coaches: Merlin Polzin · René Wagner
Position: 18 · 12
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Weather

Conditions: light rain
Temperature: 17.1° (feels 17.0°)
Wind: 6.9
Humidity: 79%

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2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	SC Freiburg	3	3	0	0	10	1	9	9	WWW
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	3	0	0	8	2	6	9	WWW
3	FC Augsburg	3	2	1	0	9	3	6	7	WWD
4	FC Bayern München	3	2	1	0	7	2	5	7	WDW
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	9	3	6	6	WLW
6	Elversberg	3	2	0	1	8	7	1	6	WWL
7	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	8	5	3	4	LWD
8	FSV Mainz 05	3	1	1	1	6	3	3	4	DWL
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	7	8	-1	4	DLW
10	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4	LWD
11	Schalke 04	3	1	1	1	3	4	-1	4	LDW
12	FC Köln	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4	WLD
13	TSG Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	6	7	-1	3	LLW
14	VfB Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	6	8	-2	3	LWL
15	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	0	4	-4	1	DLL
16	FC Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1	DLL
17	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0	0	3	3	12	-9	0	LLL
18	Hamburger SV	3	0	0	3	0	12	-12	0	LLL

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	SC Freiburg	2	2	0	0	9	1	8	6	WWW
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	8	0	8	6	WLW
3	Borussia Dortmund	2	2	0	0	5	0	5	6	WWW
4	FC Augsburg	2	1	1	0	5	2	3	4	WWD
5	FC Köln	2	1	1	0	4	3	1	4	WLD
6	FC Bayern München	1	1	0	0	5	1	4	3	WDW
7	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	4	0	4	3	LWD
8	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	4	1	3	3	LWL
9	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	3	1	2	3	LWD
10	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	WWL
11	TSG Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	LLW
12	Schalke 04	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	LDW
13	FC Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	DLL
14	FSV Mainz 05	2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	DWL
15	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	LLL
16	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	DLL
17	Eintracht Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	DLW
18	Hamburger SV	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	LLL

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	6	4	2	4	DLW
2	FC Bayern München	2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	WDW
3	FSV Mainz 05	1	1	0	0	5	0	5	3	DWL
4	FC Augsburg	1	1	0	0	4	1	3	3	WWD
5	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	4	3	1	3	WWL
6	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3	2	1	3	WWW
7	SC Freiburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	3	WWW
8	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	3	4	-1	3	LDW
9	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	4	5	-1	1	LWD
10	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	2	5	-3	1	LWD
11	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	0	3	-3	1	DLL
12	TSG Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	LLW
13	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	WLW
14	FC Köln	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	WLD
15	FC Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	DLL
16	VfB Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	2	7	-5	0	LWL
17	Hamburger SV	2	0	0	2	0	7	-7	0	LLL
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	2	0	0	2	0	8	-8	0	LLL

UEFA Champions League
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
Relegation Play-off
Relegation

Hamburger SV

LLL 0W 0D 3L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 0 GA 12 · xG 1.88–6.13 · xPts 1.7

L A RB Leipzig 0–5 xG 0.85–1.94 GER BI
L H FSV Mainz 05 0–5 xG 0.26–2.71 GER BI
L A Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.78–1.47 GER BI

FC Köln

WLD 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 5.79–6.75 · xPts 3.92

D H Werder Bremen 1–1 xG 1.97–1.17 GER BI
L A VfB Stuttgart 1–4 xG 2.08–3.83 GER BI
W H TSG Hoffenheim 3–2 xG 1.74–1.75 GER BI

thin sample 2 meetings 2025–2026

Last 2

Hamburger SV 01 draws1 FC Köln

Goals 2–5 · Hamburger SV hosting: 0W 1D 0L · FC Köln hosting: 1W 0D 0L

At Volksparkstadion: 1 meeting · Hamburger SV 0 · draws 1 · FC Köln 0 · 2.0 goals per match

All-time since 2005: 20 meetings · Hamburger SV 8 · draws 4 · FC Köln 8

Hamburger SV haven't beaten FC Köln since Aug 2017
FC Köln unbeaten in the last 3 meetings

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

Metric	Fixture	League	Δ	n
Goals per match	3.50	3.26	+0.24	2
Both teams score	100%	62%	+38%	2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	65%	-15%	2
Corners	7.0	9.9	-2.9	2
Cards	8.5	4.0	+4.5	2

1 with 4+ goals · 1.50 first-half goals per match · red card in 1

How these games go · 2 with event data

	Hamburger SV	FC Köln
Scored first	1 of 2	1 of 2
Scored first and won	0	1
Won from behind	0	0

first goal on average in minute 32 · a side came back in 1 · goal after the 75th minute in 1

When the goals come · all goals, 2 meetings

0-15'0

16-30'1

31-45'2

46-60'1

61-75'1

76-90'2

1 equaliser · 1 header

Expected goals · last 2 with xG

Hamburger SV 0.69 xGper match1.96 xG FC Köln

Deserved on xG: Hamburger SV 0 · level 0 · FC Köln 2 — actual wins in those games 0 / 1

Fixture specialists

2 Said El Mala FC Köln · in 2 games · last Mar 2026
1 Fábio Vieira Hamburger SV · last Mar 2026
1 Jean-Luc Dompé Hamburger SV · last Nov 2025
1 Ragnar Ache FC Köln · last Nov 2025
1 Florian Kainz FC Köln · last Nov 2025

Last meeting · 2026-03-14 · GER BI

Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Köln · ref Tobias Welz

39' Fábio Vieira assist William Mikelbrencis 1–0
45' Said El Mala assist Rav van den Berg 1–1

xG 0.33 – 1.13 · corners 9 · cards 6

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

33.4%Hamburger SV P 35%24.4%Draw P 26%42.2%FC Köln P 39%

Over / under 2.5

58.5%Over 2.5 P 60%41.5%Under 2.5 P 40%

Both teams to score

61.0%Yes39.0%No

Expected

Hamburger SV goals: 1.42 (0–3)
FC Köln goals: 1.62 (0–3)
Corners: 10.85 (6–16)
Cards: 4.59 (2–8)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

39.8%Hamburger SV26.0%Draw34.2%FC Köln

Over / under 2.5

51.5%Over 2.548.5%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.1%Yes45.9%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 20 matches since 2005

Hamburger SV 84 draws8 FC Köln

Goals 33–33 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 65% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Hamburger SV 23 draws5 FC Köln

Goals 9–17 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Hamburger SV 21 draws2 FC Köln

Goals 7–9 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

D Hamburger SV 1–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
L FC Köln 4–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
L Hamburger SV 0–2 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
W FC Köln 1–3 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
W Hamburger SV 2–1 FC Köln GER BI · Regular Season
L FC Köln 3–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
D Hamburger SV 1–1 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
L FC Köln 2–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
L Hamburger SV 0–2 FC Köln neutral GER BI · Regular Season
D FC Köln 0–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season

Metric	Hamburger SV all · 3	Hamburger SV at home · 1	FC Köln all · 3	FC Köln away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.45

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223

Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253

When behind-0.213

10 min after conceding-0.453

Situations

Away-0.172

4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172

As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.163

Behind vs level +0.04

FC Köln · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.59

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.033

Early press (0-15, level)-0.053

Late push (76+, level)+0.022

Game state

When ahead-0.222

When level-0.153

When behind+0.382

10 min after conceding+0.073

10 min after scoring+0.593

Situations

At home-0.182

4+ days rest-0.033

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents-0.182

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.273

Conceded when ahead+0.492

Conceded late (76+)-0.423

Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.54

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-2-1	3 100%	0.0	0.0	4.0	0.63	2.04

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-3-3	2 67%	1.5	2.0	3.0	1.91	2.79
4-2-3-1	1 33%	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.97	1.17

Metric	Hamburger SV all · 10	Hamburger SV at home · 10	FC Köln all · 10	FC Köln away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	0.80	1.00	1.00	0.50
W / D / L	2 / 2 / 6	2 / 4 / 4	2 / 4 / 4	0 / 5 / 5
Goals for / match	0.90	1.20	1.60	1.20
Goals against / match	2.60	1.80	2.30	2.40
Clean sheets	0%	10%	0%	0%
Failed to score	40%	30%	0%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	100%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	80%	70%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.23	1.39	2.00	1.62
xG against / match	2.02	1.91	1.93	1.96
xG difference	-0.79	-0.52	0.07	-0.35
Finishing vs xG	-0.33	-0.19	-0.40	-0.42
xPts / match	0.97	1.15	1.44	1.23
Points vs xPts	-0.17	-0.15	-0.44	-0.73
Game state
Scored first	20%	40%	30%	20%
PPG when scoring first	2.00	1.25	1.67	0.50
PPG when conceding first	0.50	0.80	0.71	0.50
Came back from behind	25%	43%	43%	44%
Leads held	67%	40%	50%	0%
Minutes leading	8%	11%	23%	6%
Minutes level	43%	62%	43%	55%
Minutes trailing	48%	27%	34%	39%
First goal (min)	44	34	44	49
First goal conceded (min)	28	33	48	39
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	67%	42%	69%	58%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	50%	44%	65%	58%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.00	0.10	0.60	0.40
Late goals against	0.70	0.40	0.30	0.60
Style
Possession	43%	46%	46%	45%
Shots	11.8	12.6	16.2	12.9
On target	3.9	4.1	6.0	4.2
Shot conversion	8%	10%	10%	9%
Shots inside box	60%	68%	71%	75%
Big chances created	1.5	2.4	3.4	2.2
Corners	3.9	3.7	5.3	5.4
xG from set plays	22%	27%	30%	28%
Goals from headers	0%	9%	0%	17%
Pressure index	6.9	10.9	12.8	11.1
Dominant minutes	37.1	41.8	47.0	43.2
Pass accuracy	80%	80%	82%	80%
Fouls	12.7	12.2	8.6	7.0
Cards	1.90	2.30	1.80	1.90

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

0–15'11

16–30'07

31–45'25

46–60'34

61–75'32

76–90'07

FC Köln

0–15'33

16–30'13

31–45'12

46–60'12

61–75'410

76–90'63

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-2-1	6 60%	0.83	0.83	2.67	1.44	2.09
3-4-1-2	3 30%	0.0	0.67	3.0	0.97	2.31
3-4-3	1 10%	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.69	0.71

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	4 40%	0.5	1.25	2.0	1.83	1.42
4-4-2	2 20%	2.0	2.0	1.0	2.67	1.33
5-3-2	2 20%	0.5	1.5	3.5	1.75	2.68
4-3-3	2 20%	1.5	2.0	3.0	1.91	2.79

Metric	Hamburger SV all · 34	Hamburger SV at home · 17	FC Köln all · 34	FC Köln away · 16
Results
Matches	34	17	34	16
Points per game	1.09	1.41	0.85	0.56
W / D / L	9 / 10 / 15	6 / 6 / 5	6 / 11 / 17	1 / 6 / 9
Goals for / match	1.18	1.47	1.35	1.00
Goals against / match	1.74	1.47	1.94	2.13
Clean sheets	15%	12%	6%	6%
Failed to score	29%	24%	12%	19%
Both teams scored	65%	71%	82%	75%
Over 2.5	59%	59%	65%	56%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.32	1.50	1.52	1.43
xG against / match	1.84	1.62	1.71	1.99
xG difference	-0.51	-0.12	-0.20	-0.56
Finishing vs xG	-0.15	-0.03	-0.16	-0.43
xPts / match	1.14	1.34	1.27	1.08
Points vs xPts	-0.05	0.08	-0.41	-0.52
Game state
Scored first	35%	47%	35%	19%
PPG when scoring first	1.58	1.88	1.33	1.33
PPG when conceding first	0.79	1.00	0.59	0.38
Came back from behind	35%	50%	37%	36%
Leads held	56%	60%	40%	33%
Minutes leading	16%	19%	18%	9%
Minutes level	56%	58%	50%	53%
Minutes trailing	28%	24%	32%	38%
First goal (min)	43	36	42	51
First goal conceded (min)	40	40	43	42
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	58%	52%	61%	56%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	56%	48%	56%	56%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.18	0.24	0.50	0.38
Late goals against	0.47	0.35	0.32	0.44
Style
Possession	46%	46%	47%	45%
Shots	12.4	13.5	13.6	11.9
On target	4.6	4.6	4.7	3.7
Shot conversion	10%	11%	10%	8%
Shots inside box	65%	70%	70%	72%
Big chances created	2.0	2.4	2.5	2.1
Corners	3.7	3.9	5.0	4.8
xG from set plays	29%	28%	29%	30%
Goals from headers	8%	8%	13%	12%
Pressure index	9.4	10.3	11.7	9.4
Dominant minutes	39.6	40.5	43.9	37.1
Pass accuracy	80%	80%	80%	80%
Fouls	12.1	12.1	8.1	7.6
Cards	2.56	2.24	1.94	1.94

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

0–15'33

16–30'411

31–45'1012

46–60'910

61–75'87

76–90'616

FC Köln

0–15'98

16–30'610

31–45'311

46–60'69

61–75'517

76–90'1711

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 34 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.77

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.0634

Early press (0-15, level)+0.0334

Late push (76+, level)+0.0114

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2112

Game state

When ahead-0.3416

When level+0.0634

When behind-0.1323

10 min after conceding-0.3029

10 min after scoring-0.1322

Situations

With ten men+0.016

Against ten men-0.223

At home-0.0717

Away-0.0417

3 days rest or fewer-0.322

4+ days rest-0.0432

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.2713

v mid-tier opponents-0.1213

v bottom-tier opponents+0.773

Evenly matched+0.0616

As underdog-0.1517

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.2034

Conceded when ahead+0.3816

Conceded late (76+)+0.0129

Congested vs rested -0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.39 · Behind vs level -0.18

FC Köln · 34 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.30

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.0334

Early press (0-15, level)+0.0234

Late push (76+, level)-0.1617

Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0720

Game state

When ahead-0.1315

When level-0.0634

When behind+0.0926

10 min after conceding-0.0831

10 min after scoring+0.3030

Situations

With ten men-0.033

Against ten men-0.022

At home-0.0218

Away-0.0416

4+ days rest-0.0433

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.0212

v mid-tier opponents-0.1511

v bottom-tier opponents-0.066

As favourite+0.196

Evenly matched-0.1013

As underdog-0.0515

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.1734

Conceded when ahead+0.1415

Conceded late (76+)-0.0233

Congested vs rested +0.39 · Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level +0.15

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-3	15 44%	1.4	1.47	1.4	1.45	1.58
3-4-2-1	13 38%	1.0	1.0	2.0	1.27	2.11
3-4-1-2	3 9%	0.0	0.67	3.0	0.97	2.31
3-5-1-1	1 3%	1.0	2.0	2.0	2.56	2.41
4-2-3-1	1 3%	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.37	0.31

FC Köln

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 13 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
4-2-3-1	8 24%	0.5	1.25	1.88	1.53	1.26
3-4-3	6 18%	1.0	1.17	1.67	1.38	1.2
3-4-2-1	5 15%	1.0	0.8	1.2	0.71	1.58
4-3-3	4 12%	0.75	2.0	3.25	1.71	2.77
4-4-2	4 12%	1.75	1.5	1.0	2.08	1.56

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 106 snapshots · last 14.5h before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.5 pts at 4.3d

2.77Home 35% ▲ +1.3 ptsopened 2.883.69Draw 26% · -0.5 ptsopened 3.622.49Away 39% · -0.8 ptsopened 2.44

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Last
Pinnacle	2.77 ▲ +1.3	3.69 · -0.5	2.49 · -0.8	14.5h
bet365	2.7 · -0.7	3.6 ▲ +1.0	2.45 · -0.4	14.5h
Betfair	2.75 ▼ -1.9	3.6 · +0.4	2.5 ▲ +1.6	14.5h
BetVictor	2.6 · +0.5	3.6 · -0.6	2.3 · +0.1	14.5h
Coral	2.7 · -0.3	3.7 · -0.9	2.4 ▲ +1.2	14.5h
Ladbrokes	2.7 · -0.7	3.6 · -0.5	2.4 ▲ +1.2	14.5h
Unibet	2.63 · +0.0	3.5 · +0.0	2.48 · +0.0	14.5h
WilliamHill	2.62 · +0.0	3.4 · +0.0	2.4 · +0.0	14.5h

bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 106 snapshots · last 14.5h before kick-off · biggest step: no -1.7 pts at 4.1d

1.5Yes 62% ▲ +1.7 ptsopened 1.532.5No 38% ▼ -1.7 ptsopened 2.37

Yes No consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Last
bet365	1.5 ▲ +1.7	2.5 ▼ -1.7	14.5h
Betfair	1.5 ▼ -1.9	2.5 ▲ +1.9	14.5h
BetVictor	1.44 ▲ +1.4	2.55 ▼ -1.4	14.5h
WilliamHill	1.5 ▲ +1.2	2.5 ▼ -1.3	14.5h

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 106 snapshots · last 14.5h before kick-off · biggest step: over +1.2 pts at 4.3d

1.6Over 60% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 1.652.42Under 40% ▼ -1.8 ptsopened 2.32

Over Under consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Last
Pinnacle	1.6 ▲ +1.8	2.42 ▼ -1.8	14.5h
bet365	1.57 ▲ +1.3	2.37 ▼ -1.3	14.5h
Betfair	1.6 ▼ -2.6	2.3 ▲ +2.6	14.5h
BetVictor	1.54 ▲ +1.2	2.27 ▼ -1.2	14.5h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 14.5h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.7Home 35% P 35%3.6Draw 26% P 26%2.45Away 39% P 39%

Double Chance

1.53Hamburg or Draw 31%1.28Hamburg or Cologne 37%1.44Draw or Cologne 33%

Draw No Bet

1.91 49%1.82 51%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.57Over 60% P 60%2.37Under 40% P 40%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 33%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 46%1.83Under 50% P 54%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	35%	34%	31%	-2.8
Draw	26%	28%	28%	-0.1
Away	39%	39%	42%	+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	60%	61%	63%	+1.5

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Career: 72 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match: 4.15 (4.01 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match: 23.1 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.42
Cards to home side: 46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 64 matches)

Metric	Referee	League	vs peers	pct
Cards / match	4.02	4.14	-0.43	37
Fouls / match	22.1	22.3	-0.25
Fouls per card	5.5	5.4	+0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match	0.41	0.32	+0.87	85
Time added	7.2	6.8	+0.30	67

First card: 37' on average
Card timing: 11% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side: 46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match: 1.14

Recent matches

Date	Y	R	Fouls	Pens	1st card	+min
2026-09-05	6	0	18	0	40'	8
2026-08-13	–	–	30	–	–	1
2026-07-30	11	0	40	1	22'	5
2026-05-09	1	0	13	1	90'	8
2026-04-17 · FC Köln	5	0	8	1	71'	9
2026-03-21 · Hamburger SV	5	0	18	3	45'	11
2026-03-07	2	0	19	0	82'	10
2026-02-28	9	0	23	1	20'	13
2026-02-15	3	0	16	0	48'	9
2026-02-01	4	0	22	2	40'	12

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2026/2027

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Hamburger SV · Last 365 days

FC Köln · Last 365 days

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 72

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

Last 2

This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days

How these games go · 2 with event data

When the goals come · all goals, 2 meetings

Expected goals · last 2 with xG

Fixture specialists

Last meeting · 2026-03-14 · GER BI

Match result

Over / under 2.5

Both teams to score

Expected

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

Over / under 2.5

Both teams to score

All meetings · 20 matches since 2005

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

FC Köln · 3 matches

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 34 matches

FC Köln · 34 matches

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Number of Cards

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 64 matches)

Recent matches