Rating 7.1 · G+A 1 + 1 (25% of team goals) · 97% of minutes
Bundesliga · Matchweek 3
Momentum
– ElversbergFCB –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Elversberg | at home | Stat | league | away | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.7 #17 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 71.3 #1 |
| 10.0 #17 | – | Shots total | 15.7 | – | 21.3 #2 |
| 5.7 #9 | – | Shots on target | 5.4 | – | 6.7 #3 |
| 3.7 #15 | – | Corners | 5.7 | – | 9.7 #1 |
| 12.0 #7 | – | Fouls | 11.2 | – | 10.0 #11 |
| 1.0 #11 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 2.0 #4 |
| 13.0 #14 | – | Tackles | 15.7 | – | 13.7 #13 |
| 64.7 #18 | – | Attacks | 100.5 | – | 148.7 #1 |
| 28.7 #18 | – | Dangerous attacks | 51.1 | – | 98.0 #1 |
| 325.7 #17 | – | Passes | 453.6 | – | 760.3 #1 |
| 2.0 #4 | – | Yellowcards | 1.6 | – | 1.0 #14 |
| 1.7 #9 | – | Assists | 1.8 | – | 2.0 #6 |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 59.3 | – | – #7 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 24.1 | – | – #5 |
| – #11 | – | Draw | 18.5 | – | – #1 |
| 1.7 #12 | – | Expected goals | 1.8 | – | 2.3 #3 |
| 1.0 #2 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.2 | – | 0.0 #9 |
| – #8 | – | Failed to score | 24.1 | – | – #5 |
| 2.7 #4 | 2.0 | Goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.3 #7 |
| 2.3 #6 | 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 #16 |
| 0.7 #3 | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | 0.3 #7 |
| 11.7 #6 | – | Interceptions | 10.3 | – | 8.7 #13 |
| – #7 | – | Lost | 40.7 | – | – #15 |
| 6.7 #15 | – | Rating | 6.9 | – | 7.2 #1 |
| 1.0 #18 | – | Shots blocked | 4.5 | – | 7.3 #1 |
| 7.0 #15 | – | Shots insidebox | 10.4 | – | 13.3 #3 |
| 3.3 #17 | – | Shots off target | 5.8 | – | 7.3 #4 |
| 3.0 #18 | – | Shots outsidebox | 5.3 | – | 8.0 #2 |
| – #3 | – | Win | 40.7 | – | – #3 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 27 of 306
- Goals / match
- 3.85 (home 2.37 · away 1.48)
- Home / draw / away
- 52% · 19% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 59% · 81%
- Cards / match
- 3.26 (reds 0.07)
Trends
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Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Elversberg · Last 365 days
Rating 7.01 · G+A 2 + 0 (25% of team goals) · 87% of minutes
Rating 7.2 · G+A 3 + 0 (38% of team goals) · 35% of minutes
FC Bayern München · Last 365 days
Rating 7.74 (100th pct) · G+A 45 + 6 (32% of team goals) · 79% of minutes
Team 2.53 ppg with (36) · 2.5 without (12)
Rating 7.85 (100th pct) · G+A 20 + 25 (28% of team goals) · 77% of minutes
Team 2.44 ppg with (34) · 2.71 without (14)
Rating 7.35 (98th pct) · G+A 21 + 15 (22% of team goals) · 79% of minutes
Team 2.63 ppg with (38) · 2.1 without (10)
Absences
Elversberg
- injury Luis Seifert defender · Syndesmosis Ligament Tear · 9 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 3
Venue
- Stadium
- URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
- Capacity
- 10,000
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 9,307
Teams
- Coaches
- Vincent Wagner · Vincent Kompany
- Position
- 4 · 5
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Sascha Stegemann
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 16.7° (feels 16.6°)
- Wind
- 5.1
- Humidity
- 82%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  FC Augsburg |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  FC Bayern München |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Elversberg |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 7 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | LWD |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | DWL |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | DLW |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 11 |  Schalke 04 |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | LDW |
| 12 |  FC Köln |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 13 |  TSG Hoffenheim |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | DLL |
| 16 |  FC Union Berlin |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 | DLL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 6 | WWW |
| 2 | RB Leipzig |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 6 | WLW |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WWW |
| 4 | FC Augsburg |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | WWD |
| 5 | FC Köln |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WLD |
| 6 | FC Bayern München |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | WDW |
| 7 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LWD |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | LWL |
| 9 | Werder Bremen |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | LWD |
| 10 | Elversberg |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | WWL |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LLW |
| 12 | Schalke 04 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | LDW |
| 13 | FC Union Berlin |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 14 | FSV Mainz 05 |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | DWL |
| 15 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | LLL |
| 16 | Paderborn |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | DLL |
| 17 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | DLW |
| 18 | Hamburger SV |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | DLW |
| 2 | FC Bayern München |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WDW |
| 3 | FSV Mainz 05 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | DWL |
| 4 | FC Augsburg |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | WWD |
| 5 | Elversberg |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | WWL |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | WWW |
| 7 | SC Freiburg |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | WWW |
| 8 | Schalke 04 |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | LDW |
| 9 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 | LWD |
| 10 | Werder Bremen |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LWD |
| 11 | Paderborn |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | LLW |
| 13 | RB Leipzig |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | WLW |
| 14 | FC Köln |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | WLD |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | DLL |
| 16 | VfB Stuttgart |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LWL |
| 17 | Hamburger SV |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Elversberg
WW 2W 0D 0L · 6 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 3.96–4.67 · xPts 2.36
- W
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4–3
xG 2.69–2.73
GER BI
- W
H
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3–2
xG 1.27–1.94
GER BI
WW 2W 0D 0L · 6 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 5 · xG 3.96–4.67 · xPts 2.36
- W
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4–3
xG 2.69–2.73
GER BI
- W
H
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3–2
xG 1.27–1.94
GER BI
FC Bayern München
WWDW 3W 1D 0L · 10 pts (2.5 ppg) · GF 15 GA 2 · xG 9.83–2.56 · xPts 9.85
- W
H
Bodø / Glimt
5–0
xG 2.46–0.41
UEFA CL - D
A
Schalke 04
0–0
xG 1.92–0.39
GER BI
- W
H
VfB Stuttgart
5–1
xG 2.47–1.11
GER BI
- W
H
FC Köln
5–1
xG 2.98–0.65
GER BI
WWDW 3W 1D 0L · 10 pts (2.5 ppg) · GF 15 GA 2 · xG 9.83–2.56 · xPts 9.85
- W
H
Bodø / Glimt
5–0
xG 2.46–0.41
UEFA CL
- D
A
Schalke 04
0–0
xG 1.92–0.39
GER BI
- W
H
VfB Stuttgart
5–1
xG 2.47–1.11
GER BI
- W
H
FC Köln
5–1
xG 2.98–0.65
GER BI
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed · · thin data — probabilities rounded to 5%
Match result
15%Elversberg P 7%15%Draw P 11%70%FC Bayern München P 81%
Over / under 2.5
90%Over 2.510%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
75%Yes25%No
Expected
- Elversberg goals
- 1.61 (0–3)
- FC Bayern München goals
- 3.41 (1–6)
- Corners
- 11.84 (7–17)
- Cards
- 4.07 (1–7)
Earlier: day before — 15% / 15% / 70%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
19.1%Elversberg20.2%Draw60.7%FC Bayern München
Over / under 2.5
64.2%Over 2.535.8%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
59.4%Yes40.6%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 0.332 | 0.12 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.131 | 0.03 |
| btts | yes | 0.255 | 0.101 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 1 match since 2026
Goals 1–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Last 10 · 1 match
Goals 1–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Last 5 · 1 match
Goals 1–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%
Recent meetings
- L Elversberg 1–2 FC Bayern München GER BI · Regular Season
| Metric | Elversberg all · 3 | Elversberg at home · 2 | FC Bayern München all · 3 | FC Bayern München away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Elversberg · 3 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.193
Early press (0-15, level)-0.333
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.732
Game state
When ahead-0.162
When level-0.253
When behind-0.152
10 min after conceding-0.263
10 min after scoring+0.423
Situations
At home-0.422
4+ days rest-0.172
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.422
As underdog-0.193
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.413
Conceded when ahead+0.212
Conceded late (76+)+0.663
Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level +0.10
FC Bayern München · 4 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.85) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.24
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.854
Early press (0-15, level)+1.044
Game state
When ahead+0.823
When level+0.874
10 min after conceding+0.432
10 min after scoring+1.243
Situations
At home+0.622
Away+1.042
4+ days rest+0.753
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.622
As favourite+0.854
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.434
Conceded when ahead-0.473
Conceded late (76+)-0.774
Congested vs rested +0.36 · Ahead vs level -0.05
Elversberg
Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 100% | 2.0 | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.35 |
FC Bayern München
Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 100% | 2.33 | 2.33 | 0.67 | 2.26 | 0.84 |
| Metric | Elversberg all · 3 | Elversberg at home · 2 | FC Bayern München all · 10 | FC Bayern München away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | – | – | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | – | – | 2.10 | 2.30 |
| W / D / L | – | – | 6 / 3 / 1 | 7 / 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / match | – | – | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Goals against / match | – | – | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | – | – | 30% | 30% |
| Failed to score | – | – | 10% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | – | – | 70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | – | – | 70% | 70% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | – | – | 2.30 | 2.49 |
| xG against / match | – | – | 1.44 | 1.82 |
| xG difference | – | – | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| Finishing vs xG | – | – | 0.70 | 0.31 |
| xPts / match | – | – | 1.91 | 1.78 |
| Points vs xPts | – | – | 0.19 | 0.52 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | – | – | 60% | 60% |
| PPG when scoring first | – | – | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | – | – | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Came back from behind | – | – | 75% | 75% |
| Leads held | – | – | 86% | 88% |
| Minutes leading | – | – | 32% | 34% |
| Minutes level | – | – | 40% | 41% |
| Minutes trailing | – | – | 28% | 25% |
| First goal (min) | – | – | 40 | 40 |
| First goal conceded (min) | – | – | 28 | 45 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | – | – | 73% | 71% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | – | – | 33% | 50% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | – | – | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Late goals against | – | – | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | – | – | 69% | 67% |
| Shots | – | – | 18.6 | 17.7 |
| On target | – | – | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Shot conversion | – | – | 16% | 16% |
| Shots inside box | – | – | 59% | 69% |
| Big chances created | – | – | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners | – | – | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| xG from set plays | – | – | 24% | 22% |
| Goals from headers | – | – | 11% | 7% |
| Pressure index | – | – | 22.0 | 18.7 |
| Dominant minutes | – | – | 68.1 | 63.1 |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 89% | 90% |
| Fouls | – | – | 7.7 | 9.5 |
| Cards | – | – | 1.20 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
FC Bayern München
0–15'22
16–30'44
31–45'24
46–60'63
61–75'61
76–90'101
Elversberg
Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 100% | 2.0 | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.35 |
FC Bayern München
Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 2.22 | 3.0 | 1.33 | 2.32 | 1.38 |
| 4-3-1-2 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.95 |
| Metric | Elversberg all · 3 | Elversberg at home · 2 | FC Bayern München all · 48 | FC Bayern München away · 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | – | – | 48 | 25 |
| Points per game | – | – | 2.52 | 2.44 |
| W / D / L | – | – | 38 / 7 / 3 | 19 / 4 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | – | – | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| Goals against / match | – | – | 1.15 | 1.16 |
| Clean sheets | – | – | 29% | 32% |
| Failed to score | – | – | 2% | 4% |
| Both teams scored | – | – | 71% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 | – | – | 90% | 88% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | – | – | 2.64 | 2.39 |
| xG against / match | – | – | 1.27 | 1.47 |
| xG difference | – | – | 1.37 | 0.92 |
| Finishing vs xG | – | – | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| xPts / match | – | – | 2.10 | 1.90 |
| Points vs xPts | – | – | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | – | – | 65% | 60% |
| PPG when scoring first | – | – | 2.74 | 2.80 |
| PPG when conceding first | – | – | 2.19 | 2.00 |
| Came back from behind | – | – | 84% | 80% |
| Leads held | – | – | 90% | 90% |
| Minutes leading | – | – | 46% | 42% |
| Minutes level | – | – | 38% | 43% |
| Minutes trailing | – | – | 15% | 15% |
| First goal (min) | – | – | 33 | 36 |
| First goal conceded (min) | – | – | 43 | 45 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | – | – | 61% | 65% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | – | – | 49% | 52% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | – | – | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| Late goals against | – | – | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | – | – | 66% | 65% |
| Shots | – | – | 19.2 | 17.0 |
| On target | – | – | 8.3 | 7.9 |
| Shot conversion | – | – | 17% | 18% |
| Shots inside box | – | – | 68% | 70% |
| Big chances created | – | – | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Corners | – | – | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| xG from set plays | – | – | 24% | 24% |
| Goals from headers | – | – | 11% | 9% |
| Pressure index | – | – | 25.8 | 23.1 |
| Dominant minutes | – | – | 70.2 | 64.1 |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 90% | 89% |
| Fouls | – | – | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| Cards | – | – | 1.69 | 2.04 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
FC Bayern München
0–15'137
16–30'2111
31–45'2810
46–60'266
61–75'277
76–90'4514
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Elversberg · 3 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.19) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.193
Early press (0-15, level)-0.333
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.732
Game state
When ahead-0.162
When level-0.253
When behind-0.152
10 min after conceding-0.263
10 min after scoring+0.423
Situations
At home-0.422
4+ days rest-0.172
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.422
As underdog-0.193
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.413
Conceded when ahead+0.212
Conceded late (76+)+0.663
Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level +0.10
FC Bayern München · 48 matches
Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.69) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.06
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.6948
Early press (0-15, level)+0.6048
Late push (76+, level)+0.9014
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.5010
Game state
When ahead+0.7542
When level+0.7248
When behind+0.5019
10 min after conceding+0.2930
10 min after scoring+1.0647
Situations
With ten men+0.363
Against ten men+0.455
At home+0.7723
Away+0.6325
3 days rest or fewer+0.8314
4+ days rest+0.6334
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.4521
v mid-tier opponents+0.8212
v bottom-tier opponents+0.686
As favourite+0.7744
Evenly matched+0.123
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.2548
Conceded when ahead-0.3542
Conceded late (76+)-0.5035
Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.03 · Behind vs level -0.22
Elversberg
Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 100% | 2.0 | 2.67 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.35 |
FC Bayern München
Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 2 · scoring 2 · conceding 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 47 98% | 2.55 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 2.65 | 1.25 |
| 4-3-1-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.95 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -2.0 pts at 40m · late move: away -3.1 pts inside the final hour
13.0Home 7% · +0.0 ptsopened 12.878.5Draw 11% · -0.5 ptsopened 8.061.2Away 81% · +0.4 ptsopened 1.19
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 13.0 · +0.0 | 8.5 · -0.5 | 1.2 · +0.4 | 10m |
| bet365 | 12.0 · +0.1 | 8.5 ▼ -1.3 | 1.16 ▲ +1.2 | 10m |
| Betfair | 13.0 ▼ -1.2 | 8.0 · -0.7 | 1.15 ▲ +1.9 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 12.0 · +0.2 | 8.5 ▼ -1.1 | 1.15 · +0.9 | 10m |
| Coral | 10.0 · -0.0 | 8.0 · -0.9 | 1.2 · +0.9 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 10.0 · -0.0 | 8.0 · -0.9 | 1.2 · +0.9 | 10m |
| Unibet | 14.0 · -0.5 | 8.5 ▼ -1.4 | 1.14 ▲ +1.9 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 11.0 · +0.6 | 7.5 ▼ -1.0 | 1.18 · +0.4 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: yes -3.8 pts at 1.5h · late move: no -1.7 pts inside the final hour
1.5Yes 62% ▲ +3.6 ptsopened 1.572.5No 38% ▼ -3.6 ptsopened 2.25
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.5 ▲ +3.6 | 2.5 ▼ -3.6 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.5 ▼ -1.2 | 2.5 ▲ +1.3 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.45 ▲ +2.2 | 2.55 ▼ -2.2 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.58 ▲ +1.0 | 2.25 ▼ -1.0 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.44 ▲ +3.0 | 2.62 ▼ -3.0 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: under -2.2 pts at 3.8d · late move: under +3.1 pts inside the final hour
1.16Over 81% ▲ +2.2 ptsopened 1.25.0Under 19% ▼ -2.2 ptsopened 4.5
Over Under consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.16 ▲ +2.2 | 5.0 ▼ -2.2 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.11 ▲ +2.4 | 5.5 ▼ -2.4 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.13 ▲ +2.8 | 6.0 ▼ -2.8 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.17 ▲ +2.4 | 4.75 ▼ -2.4 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
12.0Home 8% P 7%8.5Draw 11% P 11%1.16Away 81% P 81%
Double Chance
5.0Elversberg or Draw 10%1.07Elversberg or Bayern Munich 45%1.04Draw or Bayern Munich 46%
Draw No Bet
13.01 7%1.042 93%
Both Teams To Score
1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.16Over 81%5.0Under 19%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.629 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%
Number of Cards
2.51.57Over 59% P 58%2.25Under 41% P 42%
3.52.0Over 46% P 38%1.72Under 54% P 62%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 5–7.5% · away 80–82.5% · 103 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7% | 6% | 8% | +1.4 |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 10% | -2.8 |
| Away | 81% | 81% | 83% | +1.3 |
In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 59%
Sascha Stegemann
- Career
- 194 matches · 13 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.22 (4.04 yellow · 0.09 red)
- Fouls / match
- 22.3 · 5.3 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.23
- Cards to home side
- 45%
Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 72 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.96 | 4.14 | -0.56 | 26 |
| Fouls / match | 21.6 | 22.3 | -0.75 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.5 | 5.4 | +0.13 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.22 | 0.32 | -1.22 | 15 |
| Time added | 6.8 | 6.8 | -0.12 | 41 |
- First card
- 36' on average
- Card timing
- 15% in first 30' · 35% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 46% (league 47%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.31
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 22' | 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | 9 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 27' | 7 |
| 2026-05-16 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 77' | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 49' | 9 |
| 2026-04-11 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 33' | 6 |
| 2026-03-19 | 8 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 22' | 6 |
| 2026-03-15 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 38' | 7 |
| 2026-02-22 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 72' | 13 |
| 2026-01-31 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 29' | 8 |
| 2026-01-22 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 55' | 4 |