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Bundesliga · Matchweek 3

Momentum

FCUSchalke 04
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Capacity
22,012
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Mauro Lustrinelli · Miron Muslić
Position
15 · 14
Formation
4-3-1-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Timo Gerach

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
14.6° (feels 13.8°)
Wind
2.6
Humidity
64%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SC Freiburg 3300 1019 9 WWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 3300 826 9 WWW
3 FC Augsburg 3210 936 7 WWD
4 FC Bayern München 3210 725 7 WDW
5 RB Leipzig 3201 936 6 WLW
6 Elversberg 3201 871 6 WWL
7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3111 853 4 LWD
8 FSV Mainz 05 3111 633 4 DWL
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 3111 78-1 4 DLW
10 Werder Bremen 3111 56-1 4 LWD
11 Schalke 04 3111 34-1 4 LDW
12 FC Köln 3111 57-2 4 WLD
13 TSG Hoffenheim 3102 67-1 3 LLW
14 VfB Stuttgart 3102 68-2 3 LWL
15 Paderborn 3012 04-4 1 DLL
16 FC Union Berlin 3012 410-6 1 DLL
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3003 312-9 0 LLL
18 Hamburger SV 3003 012-12 0 LLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

FC Union Berlin

WDL 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 4.95–5.29 · xPts 4.54

  • L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–4 xG 0.46–3.47 GER BI
  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3 xG 2.13–1.19 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 4–0 xG 2.36–0.63 GER BI

Schalke 04

LD 0W 1D 1L · 1 pts (0.5 ppg) · GF 0 GA 3 · xG 1.93–5.74 · xPts 0.82

  • D H FC Bayern München 0–0 xG 0.39–1.92 GER BI
  • L A FC Augsburg 0–3 xG 1.54–3.81 GER BI

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

52.9%FC Union Berlin P 41%24.2%Draw P 28%22.9%Schalke 04 P 31%

Over / under 2.5

52.6%Over 2.5 P 55%47.4%Under 2.5 P 45%

Both teams to score

53.8%Yes46.2%No

Expected

FC Union Berlin goals
1.73 (0–3)
Schalke 04 goals
1.06 (0–2)
Corners
11.88 (7–17)
Cards
4.42 (2–8)

Earlier: day before — 52.9% / 24.2% / 22.9%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

33.4%FC Union Berlin25.3%Draw41.3%Schalke 04

Over / under 2.5

53.7%Over 2.546.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.3%Yes44.7%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away1.4750.933
ou_2_5over0.6420.449
bttsyes0.6190.426

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 7 matches since 2019

FC Union Berlin 14 draws2 Schalke 04

Goals 10–8 · 2.57 per match · BTTS 71% · over 2.5 43%

Last 10 · 7 matches

FC Union Berlin 14 draws2 Schalke 04

Goals 10–8 · 2.57 per match · BTTS 71% · over 2.5 43%

Last 5 · 5 matches

FC Union Berlin 13 draws1 Schalke 04

Goals 8–5 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • L FC Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke 04 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 Schalke 04 GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Schalke 04 1–6 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 Schalke 04 GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Schalke 04 1–1 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 1–1 Schalke 04 GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Schalke 04 2–1 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
MetricFC Union Berlin all · 3FC Union Berlin at home · 2Schalke 04 all · 3Schalke 04 away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

FC Union Berlin · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.073
Early press (0-15, level)-0.563
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.182

Game state

When level-0.513
When behind+0.023
10 min after conceding-0.403
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.052
4+ days rest-0.073

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.173
Conceded late (76+)-0.362

Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.53

Schalke 04 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: when level -0.18

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)+0.073

Game state

When level-0.183
10 min after conceding-0.402

Situations

Away+0.092
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

Evenly matched+0.092

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.423
Conceded late (76+)+0.943

Ahead vs level +0.29 · Behind vs level -0.09

FC Union Berlin

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-1-22 67%0.00.53.51.342.95
4-1-3-21 33%1.03.03.02.131.19

Schalke 04

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 67%1.51.52.01.983.01
5-4-11 33%1.00.00.00.391.92

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.9 pts at 1.2h · late move: draw +1.6 pts inside the final hour

2.38Home 41% ▼ -2.2 ptsopened 2.243.44Draw 28% ▲ +2.6 ptsopened 3.763.17Away 31% · -0.4 ptsopened 3.11
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.38 ▼ -2.23.44 ▲ +2.63.17 · -0.410m
bet3652.35 ▼ -3.23.4 ▲ +1.93.0 ▲ +1.410m
Betfair2.3 ▼ -3.83.6 ▲ +2.73.0 ▲ +1.110m
BetVictor2.38 ▼ -2.83.7 · +0.82.9 ▲ +1.910m
Coral2.3 ▼ -4.03.5 ▲ +2.13.0 ▲ +1.910m
Ladbrokes2.25 ▼ -2.93.5 ▲ +1.83.0 ▲ +1.110m
Unibet2.17 ▼ -3.03.55 ▲ +1.53.05 ▲ +1.510m
WilliamHill2.38 ▼ -3.93.4 · +0.92.75 ▲ +3.010m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.35Home 40% P 41%3.4Draw 28% P 28%3.0Away 32% P 31%

Double Chance

1.4Union Berlin or Draw 33%1.28Union Berlin or Schalke 36%1.53Draw or Schalke 30%

Draw No Bet

1.721 54%2.02 46%

Both Teams To Score

1.5Yes 62%2.5No 38%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.61Over 59% P 55%2.3Under 41% P 45%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 60%2.0Under 46% P 40%
4.52.1Over 44% P 40%1.66Under 56% P 60%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home41%41%41%-0.1
Draw28%28%26%-1.9
Away31%31%33%+2.1

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%54%54%+0.8

Timo Gerach

Career
30 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.43 (4.13 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
20.9 · 4.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.5
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 29 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.14+0.6774
Fouls / match20.922.3-1.39
Fouls per card4.85.4-1.05 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.480.32+1.7596
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
36' on average
Card timing
13% in first 30' · 26% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-03 40 180 68'8
2026-04-11 30 170 31'6
2026-03-08 · FC Union Berlin 41 181 16'9
2026-02-07 20 230 47'7
2026-01-10 81 241 4'13
2025-11-28 30 180 45'8
2025-10-18 40 261 7'8
2025-09-20 70 202 35'10