Rating 7.08 (94th pct) · G+A 1 + 10 (17% of team goals) · 98% of minutes
Bundesliga · Matchweek 3
Momentum
– TSGVFB –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
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Season context
| TSG Hoffenheim | at home | Stat | league | away | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.0 #4 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 52.0 #5 |
| 17.7 #6 | – | Shots total | 15.7 | – | 16.3 #8 |
| 6.0 #7 | – | Shots on target | 5.4 | – | 5.7 #9 |
| 7.3 #3 | – | Corners | 5.7 | – | 6.7 #7 |
| 14.0 #3 | – | Fouls | 11.2 | – | 10.0 #11 |
| 1.0 #11 | – | Offsides | 1.6 | – | 1.0 #11 |
| 15.3 #8 | – | Tackles | 15.7 | – | 14.7 #11 |
| 117.3 #3 | – | Attacks | 100.5 | – | 111.0 #7 |
| 66.3 #3 | – | Dangerous attacks | 51.1 | – | 48.3 #9 |
| 456.3 #8 | – | Passes | 453.6 | – | 469.3 #6 |
| 2.3 #1 | – | Yellowcards | 1.6 | – | 1.3 #11 |
| 2.0 #6 | – | Assists | 1.8 | – | 1.0 #12 |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 59.3 | – | – #1 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 24.1 | – | – #10 |
| – #11 | – | Draw | 18.5 | – | – #11 |
| 1.9 #9 | – | Expected goals | 1.8 | – | 2.2 #4 |
| 0.1 #8 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.2 | – | -0.2 #12 |
| – #8 | – | Failed to score | 24.1 | – | – #8 |
| 2.0 #9 | 2.0 | Goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 #9 |
| 2.3 #6 | 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 #4 |
| – | – | Injury time goals | 0.5 | – | 0.3 #7 |
| 11.3 #7 | – | Interceptions | 10.3 | – | 9.3 #10 |
| – #3 | – | Lost | 40.7 | – | – #3 |
| 0.0 #1 | – | Penalties scored | 0.0 | – | – |
| 6.8 #10 | – | Rating | 6.9 | – | 6.8 #11 |
| 4.7 #9 | – | Shots blocked | 4.5 | – | 4.7 #9 |
| 10.3 #12 | – | Shots insidebox | 10.4 | – | 11.7 #5 |
| 7.0 #5 | – | Shots off target | 5.8 | – | 6.0 #8 |
| 7.3 #3 | – | Shots outsidebox | 5.3 | – | 4.7 #10 |
| – #7 | – | Win | 40.7 | – | – #7 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 27 of 306
- Goals / match
- 3.85 (home 2.37 · away 1.48)
- Home / draw / away
- 52% · 19% · 30%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 59% · 81%
- Cards / match
- 3.26 (reds 0.07)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
TSG Hoffenheim · Last 365 days
Rating 7.16 (89th pct) · G+A 4 + 6 (16% of team goals) · 84% of minutes
Rating 7.13 (91th pct) · G+A 13 + 6 (30% of team goals) · 66% of minutes
Team 2.09 ppg with (23) · 0.83 without (12)
VfB Stuttgart · Last 365 days
Rating 7.31 (96th pct) · G+A 22 + 15 (38% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Team 1.83 ppg with (35) · 1.58 without (12)
Rating 7.28 (96th pct) · G+A 8 + 6 (14% of team goals) · 74% of minutes
Team 1.66 ppg with (35) · 2.08 without (12)
Rating 7.16 (90th pct) · G+A 2 + 10 (12% of team goals) · 86% of minutes
Team 1.8 ppg with (41) · 1.5 without (6)
Absences
TSG Hoffenheim
- injury Alexander Prass #12 key player midfielder · Adductor Pain · 3 missed
- suspension Luis Engelns midfielder · No Eligibility · 1 missed · until 2027-01-29
VfB Stuttgart
- injury Justin Diehl attacker · Adductor Injury · 22 missed
- injury Nikolas Nartey #12 key player midfielder · Muscle Injury · 3 missed
- injury Tiago Tomás #9 key player attacker · Muscle Injury · 2 missed
- suspension Stefan Drljaca goalkeeper · No Eligibility · 2 missed · until 2027-01-28
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 3
Venue
- Stadium
- PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
- Capacity
- 30,150
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 30,150
Teams
- Coaches
- Christian Ilzer · Sebastian Hoeneß
- Position
- 16 · 10
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Referee
Sven Jablonski
Weather
- Conditions
- broken clouds
- Temperature
- 25.4° (feels 25.1°)
- Wind
- 2.0
- Humidity
- 44%
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2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  FC Augsburg |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  FC Bayern München |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Elversberg |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 7 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | LWD |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | DWL |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | DLW |
| 10 |  Werder Bremen |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 11 |  Schalke 04 |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | LDW |
| 12 |  FC Köln |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 13 |  TSG Hoffenheim |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 15 |  Paderborn |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | DLL |
| 16 |  FC Union Berlin |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 | DLL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 6 | WWW |
| 2 | RB Leipzig |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 6 | WLW |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WWW |
| 4 | FC Augsburg |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | WWD |
| 5 | FC Köln |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WLD |
| 6 | FC Bayern München |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | WDW |
| 7 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | LWD |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | LWL |
| 9 | Werder Bremen |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | LWD |
| 10 | Elversberg |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | WWL |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LLW |
| 12 | Schalke 04 |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | LDW |
| 13 | FC Union Berlin |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 14 | FSV Mainz 05 |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | DWL |
| 15 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | LLL |
| 16 | Paderborn |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | DLL |
| 17 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | DLW |
| 18 | Hamburger SV |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | DLW |
| 2 | FC Bayern München |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | WDW |
| 3 | FSV Mainz 05 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | DWL |
| 4 | FC Augsburg |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | WWD |
| 5 | Elversberg |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | WWL |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | WWW |
| 7 | SC Freiburg |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | WWW |
| 8 | Schalke 04 |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | LDW |
| 9 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 | LWD |
| 10 | Werder Bremen |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LWD |
| 11 | Paderborn |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | LLW |
| 13 | RB Leipzig |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | WLW |
| 14 | FC Köln |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | WLD |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | DLL |
| 16 | VfB Stuttgart |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LWL |
| 17 | Hamburger SV |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
TSG Hoffenheim
LLL 0W 0D 3L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 10 · xG 4.73–4.62 · xPts 4.25
- L
H
Borussia Dortmund
2–3
xG 1.33–1.86
GER BI
- L
A
FC Köln
2–3
xG 1.75–1.74
GER BI
- L
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–4
xG 1.65–1.02
GER BI
LLL 0W 0D 3L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 10 · xG 4.73–4.62 · xPts 4.25
- L
H
Borussia Dortmund
2–3
xG 1.33–1.86
GER BI
- L
A
FC Köln
2–3
xG 1.75–1.74
GER BI
- L
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0–4
xG 1.65–1.02
GER BI
VfB Stuttgart
DLWW 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 10 GA 9 · xG 8.35–8.15 · xPts 5.71
- W
H
Viking
3–1
xG 2.16–0.77
UEFA CL - W
H
FC Köln
4–1
xG 3.83–2.08
GER BI
- L
A
FC Bayern München
1–5
xG 1.11–2.47
GER BI
- D
A
Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
xG 1.25–2.83
GER BI
DLWW 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 10 GA 9 · xG 8.35–8.15 · xPts 5.71
- W
H
Viking
3–1
xG 2.16–0.77
UEFA CL
- W
H
FC Köln
4–1
xG 3.83–2.08
GER BI
- L
A
FC Bayern München
1–5
xG 1.11–2.47
GER BI
- D
A
Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
xG 1.25–2.83
GER BI
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
36.7%TSG Hoffenheim P 44%21.3%Draw P 24%42.0%VfB Stuttgart P 32%
Over / under 2.5
74.5%Over 2.5 P 70%25.5%Under 2.5 P 30%
Both teams to score
73.5%Yes26.5%No
Expected
- TSG Hoffenheim goals
- 1.88 (0–4)
- VfB Stuttgart goals
- 2.01 (0–4)
- Corners
- 12.24 (8–17)
- Cards
- 4.6 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 36.7% / 21.3% / 42.0%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
38.4%TSG Hoffenheim21.8%Draw39.8%VfB Stuttgart
Over / under 2.5
67.8%Over 2.532.2%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
66.0%Yes34.0%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | home | 1.002 | 0.622 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.294 | 0.13 |
| btts | yes | 0.307 | 0.14 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 33 matches since 2008
Goals 49–56 · 3.18 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 58%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 15–15 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 7–6 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 40%
Recent meetings
- W TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
- D TSG Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
- D VfB Stuttgart 0–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
- D TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
- D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
- L TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
- W VfB Stuttgart 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
- D VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
- D TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
- W TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart GER BI · Regular Season
| Metric | TSG Hoffenheim all · 3 | TSG Hoffenheim at home · 2 | VfB Stuttgart all · 3 | VfB Stuttgart away · 2 |
|---|
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073
Game state
When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013
Situations
At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154
Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57
VfB Stuttgart · 4 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.07) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.29
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.074
Early press (0-15, level)-0.144
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.012
Game state
When ahead+0.132
When level+0.174
When behind-0.072
10 min after conceding-0.154
10 min after scoring+0.294
Situations
At home+0.152
Away-0.012
4+ days rest+0.003
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.193
As favourite+0.152
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.044
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.124
Congested vs rested +0.26 · Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level -0.24
TSG Hoffenheim
Current: winless 1 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-4-2 | 2 67% | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.54 | 1.8 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 33% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.27 | 1.73 |
VfB Stuttgart
Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 3 100% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.67 | 2.22 | 2.27 |
| Metric | TSG Hoffenheim all · 10 | TSG Hoffenheim at home · 10 | VfB Stuttgart all · 10 | VfB Stuttgart away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| W / D / L | 4 / 2 / 4 | 5 / 2 / 3 | 4 / 3 / 3 | 2 / 4 / 4 |
| Goals for / match | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.30 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.30 | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 90% | 90% |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 90% | 90% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.84 | 1.99 | 2.14 | 1.61 |
| xG against / match | 1.44 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 2.39 |
| xG difference | 0.40 | 0.75 | 0.23 | -0.78 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.24 | -0.19 | 0.26 | 0.69 |
| xPts / match | 1.64 | 1.84 | 1.56 | 1.04 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 70% | 70% | 50% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.86 | 2.29 | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Came back from behind | 20% | 25% | 50% | 43% |
| Leads held | 57% | 71% | 67% | 33% |
| Minutes leading | 40% | 40% | 36% | 29% |
| Minutes level | 40% | 50% | 30% | 28% |
| Minutes trailing | 20% | 10% | 34% | 43% |
| First goal (min) | 27 | 36 | 30 | 29 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 51 | 30 | 30 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 31% | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 65% | 77% | 50% | 54% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| Late goals against | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 57% | 58% | 53% | 53% |
| Shots | 16.3 | 17.9 | 16.7 | 13.7 |
| On target | 5.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 10% | 14% | 17% |
| Shots inside box | 60% | 62% | 65% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 6.6 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 5.2 |
| xG from set plays | 35% | 40% | 24% | 24% |
| Goals from headers | 12% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| Pressure index | 15.2 | 15.5 | 14.7 | 11.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 58.9 | 65.5 | 48.0 | 45.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 80% | 82% | 80% |
| Fouls | 15.1 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 2.30 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
TSG Hoffenheim
0–15'23
16–30'43
31–45'51
46–60'22
61–75'24
76–90'17
VfB Stuttgart
0–15'23
16–30'54
31–45'53
46–60'54
61–75'32
76–90'44
TSG Hoffenheim
Current: winless 1 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.83 | 2.04 | 1.2 |
| 4-4-2 | 2 20% | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.54 | 1.8 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.64 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.22 | 1.99 |
VfB Stuttgart
Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 1.0 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 2.18 | 1.96 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 3 30% | 1.33 | 3.0 | 2.33 | 2.07 | 2.35 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.16 | 1.7 |
| 3-2-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.16 | 0.77 |
| Metric | TSG Hoffenheim all · 35 | TSG Hoffenheim at home · 18 | VfB Stuttgart all · 47 | VfB Stuttgart away · 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 18 | 47 | 23 |
| Points per game | 1.66 | 1.94 | 1.77 | 1.26 |
| W / D / L | 17 / 7 / 11 | 11 / 2 / 5 | 25 / 8 / 14 | 8 / 5 / 10 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.11 | 2.06 | 2.13 |
| Goals against / match | 1.57 | 1.22 | 1.45 | 1.87 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 22% | 26% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 11% | 17% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 67% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 72% | 70% | 83% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.74 | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.67 |
| xG against / match | 1.45 | 1.29 | 1.47 | 1.84 |
| xG difference | 0.29 | 0.59 | 0.44 | -0.17 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.46 |
| xPts / match | 1.60 | 1.75 | 1.68 | 1.35 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 51% | 67% | 51% | 44% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.44 | 2.58 | 2.62 | 2.30 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.46 |
| Came back from behind | 39% | 29% | 42% | 33% |
| Leads held | 77% | 85% | 83% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 37% | 49% | 31% | 29% |
| Minutes level | 42% | 38% | 43% | 34% |
| Minutes trailing | 21% | 14% | 26% | 37% |
| First goal (min) | 32 | 31 | 38 | 36 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 50 | 35 | 30 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 44% | 40% | 54% | 55% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 56% | 73% | 52% | 51% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Late goals against | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 56% | 56% | 58% | 56% |
| Shots | 14.8 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 15.0 |
| On target | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| Shot conversion | 12% | 13% | 13% | 14% |
| Shots inside box | 67% | 67% | 65% | 68% |
| Big chances created | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| xG from set plays | 33% | 35% | 23% | 27% |
| Goals from headers | 22% | 19% | 8% | 8% |
| Pressure index | 15.1 | 16.4 | 20.1 | 20.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 57.6 | 62.6 | 61.2 | 58.7 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 84% | 83% |
| Fouls | 14.1 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.89 | 1.94 | 2.09 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
TSG Hoffenheim
0–15'68
16–30'129
31–45'187
46–60'135
61–75'711
76–90'815
VfB Stuttgart
0–15'99
16–30'1611
31–45'2013
46–60'169
61–75'96
76–90'2720
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
TSG Hoffenheim · 35 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.21) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.55
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.2135
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2935
Late push (76+, level)-0.1611
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.0110
Game state
When ahead+0.1322
When level+0.2135
When behind+0.3318
10 min after conceding-0.1026
10 min after scoring+0.5528
Situations
With ten men+0.203
Against ten men-0.013
At home+0.0418
Away+0.3917
3 days rest or fewer+0.182
4+ days rest+0.2133
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.0713
v mid-tier opponents+0.4310
v bottom-tier opponents+0.325
As favourite+0.3318
Evenly matched+0.1112
As underdog-0.025
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.2035
Conceded when ahead-0.1422
Conceded late (76+)-0.1530
Congested vs rested -0.03 · Ahead vs level -0.08 · Behind vs level +0.11
VfB Stuttgart · 47 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.44) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +1.04
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.4447
Early press (0-15, level)+0.3347
Late push (76+, level)+0.2318
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.4518
Game state
When ahead+0.6630
When level+0.3347
When behind+0.3824
10 min after conceding+0.0434
10 min after scoring+0.8939
Situations
With ten men+0.332
Against ten men+1.012
At home+0.3224
Away+0.5623
3 days rest or fewer+0.6614
4+ days rest+0.3433
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.2715
v mid-tier opponents+0.3717
v bottom-tier opponents+1.044
As favourite+0.3829
Evenly matched+0.7013
As underdog+0.045
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.2047
Conceded when ahead-0.2030
Conceded late (76+)-0.3342
Congested vs rested +0.32 · Ahead vs level +0.33 · Behind vs level +0.04
TSG Hoffenheim
Current: winless 1 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 29% | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.14 |
| 4-4-2 | 7 20% | 1.29 | 2.14 | 2.43 | 1.48 | 1.72 |
| 4-3-1-2 | 4 11% | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.0 | 2.01 | 1.21 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 6% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.97 | 1.24 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 6% | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.61 | 1.21 |
VfB Stuttgart
Current: winless 1 · scoring 10 · conceding 9
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 24 51% | 1.96 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 1.92 | 1.65 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 13 28% | 1.46 | 1.77 | 1.31 | 1.72 | 1.31 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 6 13% | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.33 | 2.01 | 1.48 |
| 4-4-1-1 | 1 2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.35 | 0.29 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.75 | 1.72 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.3 pts at 3.5h · late move: away -1.3 pts inside the final hour
2.23Home 44% ▲ +3.7 ptsopened 2.433.97Draw 24% · +0.5 ptsopened 4.043.05Away 32% ▼ -4.3 ptsopened 2.68
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.23 ▲ +3.7 | 3.97 · +0.5 | 3.05 ▼ -4.3 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.15 ▲ +4.4 | 4.0 ▼ -1.2 | 2.9 ▼ -3.2 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.2 ▲ +2.4 | 3.9 · +0.3 | 2.88 ▼ -2.7 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 2.2 ▲ +2.4 | 4.1 · -1.0 | 2.75 ▼ -1.4 | 10m |
| Coral | 2.2 ▲ +3.0 | 4.0 · -0.6 | 2.8 ▼ -2.4 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.2 ▲ +3.3 | 4.0 ▼ -1.1 | 2.8 ▼ -2.1 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.2 · +0.3 | 3.85 · -0.1 | 2.75 · -0.2 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 2.2 ▲ +2.0 | 3.7 · +0.1 | 2.8 ▼ -2.1 | 10m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: no -2.5 pts at 4.9d
1.33Yes 71% ▲ +4.7 ptsopened 1.43.25No 29% ▼ -4.7 ptsopened 2.75
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.33 ▲ +4.7 | 3.25 ▼ -4.7 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.29 ▲ +3.2 | 3.4 ▼ -3.2 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.25 ▲ +3.8 | 3.4 ▼ -3.8 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.32 ▲ +3.1 | 3.15 ▼ -3.1 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.3 ▲ +4.3 | 3.4 ▼ -4.3 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: over +1.2 pts at 45.5h
1.37Over 70% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 1.43.18Under 30% ▼ -1.8 ptsopened 2.99
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.37 ▲ +1.8 | 3.18 ▼ -1.8 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.33 ▲ +3.7 | 3.4 ▼ -3.7 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.29 ▲ +4.0 | 3.3 ▼ -4.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.33 ▲ +2.5 | 2.95 ▼ -2.5 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.34 ▲ +3.8 | 3.15 ▼ -3.8 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.15Home 44% P 44%4.0Draw 24% P 24%2.9Away 33% P 32%
Double Chance
1.4TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 33%1.22TSG Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart 38%1.66Draw or VfB Stuttgart 28%
Draw No Bet
1.661 56%2.12 44%
Both Teams To Score
1.33Yes 71%3.25No 29%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.33Over 72% P 70%3.4Under 28% P 30%
Total Corners
15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%
Number of Cards
3.51.83Over 50% P 48%1.83Under 50% P 52%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 30–32.5% · 232 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 44% | 43% | 45% | +1.8 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | -0.8 |
| Away | 32% | 31% | 30% | -1.1 |
In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 66%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 69% | 69% | +0.6 |
Sven Jablonski
- Career
- 115 matches · 10 seasons
- Cards / match
- 3.53 (3.45 yellow · 0.03 red)
- Fouls / match
- 22.7 · 6.4 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.22
- Cards to home side
- 46%
Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 77 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 3.78 | 4.14 | -0.96 | 15 |
| Fouls / match | 20.6 | 22.3 | -1.67 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.5 | 5.4 | +0.09 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.23 | 0.32 | -1.08 | 18 |
| Time added | 6.2 | 6.8 | -0.75 | 15 |
- First card
- 34' on average
- Card timing
- 21% in first 30' · 31% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 50% (league 47%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.22
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 27' | 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 72' | 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 37' | 5 |
| 2026-05-10 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 30' | 8 |
| 2026-04-24 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 34' | 6 |
| 2026-04-16 | 8 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 24' | 7 |
| 2026-04-12 · VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 24' | 5 |
| 2026-03-20 · TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 14' | 10 |
| 2026-03-15 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 17' | 15 |
| 2026-03-12 | 5 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 13' | 5 |