KickoffDNA
0 live
Bundesliga · Matchweek 3
Borussia DortmundBVB
3–0
FT
PaderbornPaderborn

Momentum

– BVBPaderborn –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
3

Venue

Stadium
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Capacity
81,365
Surface
grass
Attendance
80,000

Teams

Coaches
Niko Kovač · Ralf Kettemann
Position
3 · 13
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 3-1-4-2

Referee

Harm Osmers

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
20.8° (feels 20.6°)
Wind
3.6
Humidity
63%

Where to watch · 185

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SC Freiburg 3300 1019 9 WWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 3300 826 9 WWW
3 FC Augsburg 3210 936 7 WWD
4 FC Bayern München 3210 725 7 WDW
5 RB Leipzig 3201 936 6 WLW
6 Elversberg 3201 871 6 WWL
7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3111 853 4 LWD
8 FSV Mainz 05 3111 633 4 DWL
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 3111 78-1 4 DLW
10 Werder Bremen 3111 56-1 4 LWD
11 Schalke 04 3111 34-1 4 LDW
12 FC Köln 3111 57-2 4 WLD
13 TSG Hoffenheim 3102 67-1 3 LLW
14 VfB Stuttgart 3102 68-2 3 LWL
15 Paderborn 3012 04-4 1 DLL
16 FC Union Berlin 3012 410-6 1 DLL
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3003 312-9 0 LLL
18 Hamburger SV 3003 012-12 0 LLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Borussia Dortmund

WWWW 4W 0D 0L · 12 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 8.74–4.23 · xPts 8.23

  • W H Villarreal 3–2 xG 2.75–1.42 UEFA CL
  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 3–2 xG 1.86–1.33 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 2–0 xG 1.47–0.78 GER BI
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 2.66–0.7 GER BI

Paderborn

DL 0W 1D 1L · 1 pts (0.5 ppg) · GF 0 GA 1 · xG 1.76–2.47 · xPts 2.16

  • L H SC Freiburg 0–1 xG 0.81–1.28 GER BI
  • D A FSV Mainz 05 0–0 xG 0.95–1.19 GER BI

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

73.7%Borussia Dortmund P 76%16.4%Draw P 14%9.9%Paderborn P 10%

Over / under 2.5

62.6%Over 2.5 P 72%37.4%Under 2.5 P 28%

Both teams to score

49.8%Yes50.2%No

Expected

Borussia Dortmund goals
2.44 (1–5)
Paderborn goals
0.78 (0–2)
Corners
11.37 (7–16)
Cards
5.03 (2–8)

Earlier: day before — 73.7% / 16.4% / 9.9%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

57.8%Borussia Dortmund22.8%Draw19.4%Paderborn

Over / under 2.5

54.5%Over 2.545.5%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.6%Yes48.4%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2home0.3050.105
bttsno0.6880.495
ou_2_5over0.4690.28

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 5 matches since 2014

Borussia Dortmund 32 draws0 Paderborn

Goals 17–6 · 4.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund 32 draws0 Paderborn

Goals 17–6 · 4.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund 32 draws0 Paderborn

Goals 17–6 · 4.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Paderborn GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Paderborn 1–6 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Dortmund 3–3 Paderborn GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Paderborn neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Paderborn 2–2 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBorussia Dortmund all · 3Borussia Dortmund at home · 2Paderborn all · 3Paderborn away · 2

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

Paderborn · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.13) · stands out: when level -0.36

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.133
Early press (0-15, level)-0.233
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.482

Game state

When level-0.363
When behind+0.062
10 min after conceding+0.082

Situations

Away-0.142
4+ days rest-0.133

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.032
As underdog-0.133

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.063
Conceded late (76+)+0.023

Behind vs level +0.42

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 67%3.03.01.01.750.89
3-4-31 33%3.02.00.01.470.78

Paderborn

Current: winless 3 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-1-4-22 67%0.00.02.00.631.46
3-4-31 33%1.00.00.00.951.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.5 pts at 4.5h

1.27Home 76% ▼ -1.4 ptsopened 1.246.68Draw 14% ▲ +1.1 ptsopened 7.189.8Away 10% · +0.3 ptsopened 10.1
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.27 ▼ -1.46.68 ▲ +1.19.8 · +0.310m
bet3651.28 ▼ -1.86.5 · -0.88.0 ▲ +2.610m
Betfair1.25 ▼ -2.36.0 ▲ +1.410.0 · +0.910m
BetVictor1.25 · -0.16.0 · +0.611.0 · -0.510m
Coral1.28 · +0.56.5 · +0.19.0 · -0.610m
Ladbrokes1.28 · +0.06.5 · +0.39.0 · -0.410m
Unibet1.22 · +0.66.25 · -0.311.5 · -0.310m
WilliamHill1.25 · -0.45.8 · +0.59.5 · -0.110m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.28Home 74% P 76%6.5Draw 15% P 14%8.0Away 12% P 10%

Double Chance

1.07Borussia Dortmund or Draw 44%1.11Borussia Dortmund or Paderborn 43%3.75Draw or Paderborn 13%

Draw No Bet

1.081 88%8.02 12%

Both Teams To Score

1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.36Over 70% P 72%3.2Under 30% P 28%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.83Over 50% P 44%1.83Under 50% P 56%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home76%76%77%+0.9
Draw14%15%15%-0.5
Away10%9%8%-0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 70–72.5% · 477 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.572%71%70%-1.4

Harm Osmers

Career
165 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
4.11 (3.93 yellow · 0.09 red)
Fouls / match
22.7 · 5.5 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.29
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 73 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.154.14-0.1448
Fouls / match21.422.3-0.93
Fouls per card5.25.4-0.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.340.32+0.1452
Time added6.76.8-0.2233
First card
35' on average
Card timing
14% in first 30' · 32% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.22

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-25 30 240 7'5
2026-04-04 50 160 7'7
2026-03-14 51 140 38'11
2026-02-21 70 220 3'12
2026-01-31 100 281 23'15
2026-01-22 61 200 29'13
2026-01-17 · Borussia Dortmund 40 201 16'7
2026-01-11 10 251 54'6
2025-12-13 30 140 5'5
2025-11-30 50 161 56'6