Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga · Matchweek 2

Hamburger SVHamburger SV

0–5

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Momentum

– Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05 –

now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Stats

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Season context

Hamburger SV	at home	Stat	league	away	FSV Mainz 05
45.0 #13	–	Ball possession	49.7	–	50.3 #9
8.7 #18	–	Shots total	15.6	–	18.7 #4
2.7 #17	–	Shots on target	5.5	–	5.7 #8
4.0 #13	–	Corners	5.7	–	6.7 #7
15.3 #2	–	Fouls	11.2	–	12.7 #5
2.0 #4	–	Offsides	1.5	–	1.0 #11
14.0 #12	–	Tackles	15.8	–	16.7 #5
84.0 #14	–	Attacks	99.8	–	109.7 #7
35.7 #16	–	Dangerous attacks	50.6	–	62.3 #4
396.7 #12	–	Passes	450.5	–	429.3 #10
1.3 #11	–	Yellowcards	1.6	–	1.3 #11
–	–	Assists	1.8	–	2.0 #7
– #17	–	Btts	57.4	–	– #11
– #10	–	Cleansheet	25.0	–	– #1
– #11	–	Draw	17.6	–	– #1
0.7 #18	–	Expected goals	1.8	–	2.1 #6
-0.7 #17	–	Expected goals difference	0.2	–	-0.1 #11
– #1	–	Failed to score	24.5	–	– #6
0.0 #17	0.0	Goals	2.0	5.0	2.0 #9
4.0 #2	5.0	Goals conceded	2.0	0.0	1.0 #13
0.7 #3	–	Injury time goals	0.5	–	0.7 #3
10.0 #8	–	Interceptions	10.3	–	13.0 #3
– #1	–	Lost	41.2	–	– #7
–	–	Penalties scored	0.1	–	0.0 #2
6.4 #18	–	Rating	6.9	–	7.0 #6
2.3 #16	–	Shots blocked	4.4	–	5.0 #5
4.7 #18	–	Shots insidebox	10.3	–	13.0 #4
3.7 #15	–	Shots off target	5.6	–	8.0 #3
4.0 #14	–	Shots outsidebox	5.3	–	5.7 #6
– #15	–	Win	41.2	–	– #7

Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.

League this season · 2026/2027

Played: 27 of 306
Goals / match: 3.85 (home 2.37 · away 1.48)
Home / draw / away: 52% · 19% · 30%
BTTS · over 2.5: 59% · 81%
Cards / match: 3.26 (reds 0.07)

Lineups

Waiting for lineups…

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Hamburger SV · Last 365 days

Fábio Vieira 20 · Attacking Midfield

On the bench

Rating 7.15 (87th pct) · G+A 7 + 5 (30% of team goals) · 72% of minutes

Team 1.08 ppg with (24) · 1.1 without (10)

Miro Muheim 28 · Left Back

Not in the squad

Rating 6.99 (87th pct) · G+A 0 + 4 (10% of team goals) · 71% of minutes

Team 1.12 ppg with (24) · 1.0 without (10)

Nicolai Remberg 21 · Defensive Midfield

Starts

Rating 6.87 (54th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (5% of team goals) · 94% of minutes

All key players

FSV Mainz 05 · Last 365 days

Nadiem Amiri 10 · Central Midfield

Starts

Rating 7.34 (97th pct) · G+A 13 + 2 (25% of team goals) · 63% of minutes

Team 1.32 ppg with (28) · 1.62 without (16)

Kaishu Sano 6 · Defensive Midfield

Starts

Rating 7.01 (77th pct) · G+A 2 + 4 (10% of team goals) · 96% of minutes

Paul Nebel 8 · Attacking Midfield

Injury · Adductor Injury

Rating 6.92 (67th pct) · G+A 5 + 4 (15% of team goals) · 70% of minutes

Team 1.42 ppg with (31) · 1.46 without (13)

All key players

Absences

Hamburger SV

injury Albert Sambi Lokonga #4 key player midfielder · Back Problems
injury Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit #14 key player attacker · Ankle Injury · 10 missed
injury Fernando Dickes goalkeeper · Shoulder Injury · 17 missed
injury Warmed Omari #8 key player defender · Shoulder Injury · 3 missed

FSV Mainz 05

injury Paul Nebel #3 key player midfielder · Adductor Injury · 4 missed
injury Robin Zentner #16 key player goalkeeper · Muscular problems
injury Silvan Widmer #12 key player defender · Knee Problems

Competition

Stage: Regular Season
Round: 2

Venue

Stadium: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Capacity: 57,000
Surface: grass
Attendance: 57,000

Teams

Coaches: Merlin Polzin · Urs Fischer
Position: 17 · 12
Formation: 3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2

Referee

Tobias Reichel

Weather

Conditions: scattered clouds
Temperature: 19.8° (feels 19.3°)
Wind: 2.1
Humidity: 57%

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2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	12	10	WDWW
2	SC Freiburg	3	3	0	0	10	1	9	9	WWW
3	Borussia Dortmund	3	3	0	0	8	2	6	9	WWW
4	FC Augsburg	3	2	1	0	9	3	6	7	WWD
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	9	3	6	6	WLW
6	Elversberg	3	2	0	1	8	7	1	6	WWL
7	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	8	5	3	4	LWD
8	FSV Mainz 05	3	1	1	1	6	3	3	4	DWL
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	7	8	-1	4	DLW
10	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4	LWD
11	Schalke 04	3	1	1	1	3	4	-1	4	LDW
12	FC Köln	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4	WLD
13	TSG Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	6	7	-1	3	LLW
14	VfB Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	6	8	-2	3	LWL
15	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	0	4	-4	1	DLL
16	FC Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1	DLLL
17	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0	0	3	3	12	-9	0	LLL
18	Hamburger SV	3	0	0	3	0	12	-12	0	LLL

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Bayern München	2	2	0	0	12	1	11	6	WDWW
2	SC Freiburg	2	2	0	0	9	1	8	6	WWW
3	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	8	0	8	6	WLW
4	Borussia Dortmund	2	2	0	0	5	0	5	6	WWW
5	FC Augsburg	2	1	1	0	5	2	3	4	WWD
6	FC Köln	2	1	1	0	4	3	1	4	WLD
7	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	4	0	4	3	LWD
8	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	4	1	3	3	LWL
9	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	3	1	2	3	LWD
10	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	WWL
11	TSG Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	LLW
12	Schalke 04	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	LDW
13	FC Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	DLLL
14	FSV Mainz 05	2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	DWL
15	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	LLL
16	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	DLL
17	Eintracht Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	DLW
18	Hamburger SV	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	LLL

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	6	4	2	4	DLW
2	FC Bayern München	2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	WDWW
3	FSV Mainz 05	1	1	0	0	5	0	5	3	DWL
4	FC Augsburg	1	1	0	0	4	1	3	3	WWD
5	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	4	3	1	3	WWL
6	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3	2	1	3	WWW
7	SC Freiburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	3	WWW
8	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	3	4	-1	3	LDW
9	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	4	5	-1	1	LWD
10	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	2	5	-3	1	LWD
11	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	0	3	-3	1	DLL
12	TSG Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	LLW
13	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	WLW
14	FC Köln	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	WLD
15	VfB Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	2	7	-5	0	LWL
16	Hamburger SV	2	0	0	2	0	7	-7	0	LLL
17	Borussia Mönchengladbach	2	0	0	2	0	8	-8	0	LLL
18	FC Union Berlin	2	0	0	2	0	11	-11	0	DLLL

UEFA Champions League
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
Relegation Play-off
Relegation

Hamburger SV

WDL 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 5.02–5.08 · xPts 4.24

L A Borussia Dortmund 0–2 xG 0.78–1.47 GER BI
D A Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 xG 2.63–3.14 GER BI
W H SC Freiburg 3–2 xG 1.61–0.46 GER BI

FSV Mainz 05

LWD 1W 1D 1L · 4 pts (1.33 ppg) · GF 3 GA 3 · xG 5.84–5.88 · xPts 4.18

D H Paderborn 0–0 xG 1.19–0.95 GER BI
W A FC Heidenheim 2–0 xG 3.15–2.18 GER BI
L H FC Union Berlin 1–3 xG 1.5–2.75 GER BI

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 25 matches since 2005

Hamburger SV 89 draws8 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 30–33 · 2.52 per match · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 52%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Hamburger SV 24 draws4 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 11–16 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Hamburger SV 12 draws2 FSV Mainz 05

Goals 7–9 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

L Hamburger SV 0–5 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
D FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
W Hamburger SV 4–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
D Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
L FSV Mainz 05 3–2 Hamburger SV neutral GER BI · Regular Season
D Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05 GER BI · Regular Season
L FSV Mainz 05 3–1 Hamburger SV neutral GER BI · Regular Season
D FSV Mainz 05 0–0 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season
L Hamburger SV 1–3 FSV Mainz 05 neutral GER BI · Regular Season
W FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Hamburger SV GER BI · Regular Season

Metric	Hamburger SV all · 3	Hamburger SV at home · 1	FSV Mainz 05 all · 3	FSV Mainz 05 away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.223

Early press (0-15, level)-0.203

Game state

When level-0.253

When behind-0.213

10 min after conceding-0.443

Situations

Away-0.172

4+ days rest-0.223

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.172

As underdog-0.172

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.153

Behind vs level +0.04

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.11) · stands out: when level +0.32

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.113

Early press (0-15, level)+0.223

Game state

When level+0.323

10 min after scoring+0.242

Situations

At home+0.032

4+ days rest+0.113

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.302

As favourite+0.032

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.193

Conceded late (76+)-0.422

Ahead vs level -0.34 · Behind vs level -0.58

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-2-1	3 100%	0.0	0.0	4.0	0.63	2.04

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-1-4-2	2 67%	0.5	0.5	1.5	1.82	1.43
3-5-2	1 33%	3.0	5.0	0.0	2.71	0.26

Metric	Hamburger SV all · 10	Hamburger SV at home · 10	FSV Mainz 05 all · 10	FSV Mainz 05 away · 10
Results
Matches	10	10	10	10
Points per game	0.80	1.00	1.10	1.80
W / D / L	2 / 2 / 6	2 / 4 / 4	3 / 2 / 5	5 / 3 / 2
Goals for / match	0.90	1.20	1.50	1.50
Goals against / match	2.60	1.80	1.70	1.20
Clean sheets	0%	10%	30%	40%
Failed to score	40%	30%	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	50%	40%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	60%	50%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.23	1.39	1.91	1.66
xG against / match	2.02	1.91	1.55	1.54
xG difference	-0.79	-0.52	0.36	0.11
Finishing vs xG	-0.33	-0.19	-0.41	-0.16
xPts / match	0.97	1.15	1.63	1.48
Points vs xPts	-0.17	-0.15	-0.53	0.33
Game state
Scored first	20%	40%	40%	60%
PPG when scoring first	2.00	1.25	2.25	2.67
PPG when conceding first	0.50	0.80	0.20	0.33
Came back from behind	25%	43%	17%	33%
Leads held	67%	40%	75%	83%
Minutes leading	8%	11%	34%	41%
Minutes level	43%	62%	34%	34%
Minutes trailing	48%	27%	32%	25%
First goal (min)	44	34	39	30
First goal conceded (min)	28	33	38	40
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	67%	42%	40%	47%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	50%	44%	65%	42%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.00	0.10	0.40	0.40
Late goals against	0.70	0.40	0.50	0.30
Style
Possession	43%	46%	48%	44%
Shots	11.8	12.6	15.9	11.6
On target	3.9	4.1	5.5	4.9
Shot conversion	8%	10%	9%	13%
Shots inside box	60%	68%	69%	76%
Big chances created	1.5	2.4	3.8	3.7
Corners	3.9	3.7	5.7	3.8
xG from set plays	22%	27%	31%	35%
Goals from headers	0%	9%	7%	20%
Pressure index	6.9	10.9	14.4	10.8
Dominant minutes	37.1	41.8	51.0	44.5
Pass accuracy	80%	80%	80%	78%
Fouls	12.7	12.2	10.7	9.5
Cards	1.90	2.30	1.70	1.90

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

0–15'11

16–30'07

31–45'25

46–60'34

61–75'32

76–90'07

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'32

16–30'21

31–45'43

46–60'23

61–75'03

76–90'45

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-2-1	6 60%	0.83	0.83	2.67	1.44	2.09
3-4-1-2	3 30%	0.0	0.67	3.0	0.97	2.31
3-4-3	1 10%	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.69	0.71

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-5-2	6 60%	1.5	2.17	2.0	2.07	1.88
3-1-4-2	3 30%	0.67	0.67	1.33	1.98	1.21
5-3-2	1 10%	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.74	0.61

Metric	Hamburger SV all · 34	Hamburger SV at home · 17	FSV Mainz 05 all · 44	FSV Mainz 05 away · 22
Results
Matches	34	17	44	22
Points per game	1.09	1.41	1.43	1.36
W / D / L	9 / 10 / 15	6 / 6 / 5	17 / 12 / 15	8 / 6 / 8
Goals for / match	1.18	1.47	1.36	1.32
Goals against / match	1.74	1.47	1.36	1.50
Clean sheets	15%	12%	27%	23%
Failed to score	29%	24%	27%	32%
Both teams scored	65%	71%	52%	50%
Over 2.5	59%	59%	50%	59%
Expected goals
xG for / match	1.32	1.50	1.60	1.35
xG against / match	1.84	1.62	1.56	1.81
xG difference	-0.51	-0.12	0.04	-0.46
Finishing vs xG	-0.15	-0.03	-0.24	-0.04
xPts / match	1.14	1.34	1.44	1.18
Points vs xPts	-0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.18
Game state
Scored first	35%	47%	52%	54%
PPG when scoring first	1.58	1.88	2.09	2.00
PPG when conceding first	0.79	1.00	0.67	0.56
Came back from behind	35%	50%	32%	27%
Leads held	56%	60%	63%	57%
Minutes leading	16%	19%	30%	31%
Minutes level	56%	58%	45%	46%
Minutes trailing	28%	24%	25%	23%
First goal (min)	43	36	37	34
First goal conceded (min)	40	40	42	46
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half	58%	52%	50%	45%
Goals conceded in 2nd half	56%	48%	55%	54%
Late goals for (76'+)	0.18	0.24	0.30	0.18
Late goals against	0.47	0.35	0.43	0.50
Style
Possession	46%	46%	44%	42%
Shots	12.4	13.5	12.4	10.5
On target	4.6	4.6	4.3	4.0
Shot conversion	10%	11%	11%	13%
Shots inside box	65%	70%	74%	74%
Big chances created	2.0	2.4	3.1	2.6
Corners	3.7	3.9	5.1	4.0
xG from set plays	29%	28%	38%	35%
Goals from headers	8%	8%	17%	17%
Pressure index	9.4	10.3	12.1	10.1
Dominant minutes	39.6	40.5	46.3	41.1
Pass accuracy	80%	80%	76%	75%
Fouls	12.1	12.1	11.5	10.6
Cards	2.56	2.24	2.20	2.55

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

0–15'33

16–30'411

31–45'1012

46–60'910

61–75'87

76–90'616

FSV Mainz 05

0–15'910

16–30'98

31–45'129

46–60'88

61–75'96

76–90'1319

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 34 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.06) · stands out: v bottom-tier opponents +0.77

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.0634

Early press (0-15, level)+0.0334

Late push (76+, level)+0.0114

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2112

Game state

When ahead-0.3416

When level+0.0634

When behind-0.1323

10 min after conceding-0.3029

10 min after scoring-0.1322

Situations

With ten men+0.016

Against ten men-0.223

At home-0.0717

Away-0.0417

3 days rest or fewer-0.322

4+ days rest-0.0432

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.2713

v mid-tier opponents-0.1213

v bottom-tier opponents+0.773

Evenly matched+0.0616

As underdog-0.1517

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.2034

Conceded when ahead+0.3816

Conceded late (76+)+0.0129

Congested vs rested -0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.39 · Behind vs level -0.18

FSV Mainz 05 · 44 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.28

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.0344

Early press (0-15, level)+0.0244

Late push (76+, level)-0.2519

Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2314

Game state

When ahead-0.0126

When level+0.0644

When behind+0.0322

10 min after conceding-0.2131

10 min after scoring+0.2831

Situations

With ten men+0.065

Against ten men-0.172

At home+0.0222

Away+0.0522

3 days rest or fewer-0.0911

4+ days rest+0.0733

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.2511

v mid-tier opponents-0.2713

v bottom-tier opponents+0.258

As favourite+0.0817

Evenly matched+0.2512

As underdog-0.1815

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.0844

Conceded when ahead+0.0326

Conceded late (76+)-0.0138

Congested vs rested -0.16 · Ahead vs level -0.07 · Behind vs level -0.03

Hamburger SV

Current: winless 4 · conceding 17

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-4-3	15 44%	1.4	1.47	1.4	1.45	1.58
3-4-2-1	13 38%	1.0	1.0	2.0	1.27	2.11
3-4-1-2	3 9%	0.0	0.67	3.0	0.97	2.31
4-3-3	1 3%	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.96	1.67
4-2-3-1	1 3%	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.37	0.31

FSV Mainz 05

Current: winless 1 · scoring 2 · conceding 1

Formation	Use	PPG	GF	GA	xG	xGA
3-5-2	22 50%	1.86	1.73	1.27	1.77	1.56
3-4-2-1	10 23%	0.8	1.2	2.1	1.22	1.86
3-1-4-2	4 9%	0.5	0.75	1.5	1.69	1.42
5-3-2	3 7%	0.67	0.33	0.67	1.35	1.23
3-4-3	3 7%	2.0	0.67	0.33	1.96	0.57

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -1.7 pts at 3.9d

2.94Home 33% · +0.2 ptsopened 2.943.5Draw 28% ▲ +1.2 ptsopened 3.632.49Away 39% ▼ -1.4 ptsopened 2.39

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Last
Pinnacle	2.94 · +0.2	3.5 ▲ +1.2	2.49 ▼ -1.4	10m
bet365	2.9 · +0.6	3.4 ▲ +1.3	2.4 ▼ -1.9	10m
Betfair	2.8 · +0.1	3.75 · -0.0	2.4 · -0.1	10m
BetVictor	2.88 · -0.3	3.4 ▲ +1.0	2.38 · -0.7	10m
Coral	2.8 · +0.9	3.4 ▲ +1.6	2.45 ▼ -2.5	10m
Ladbrokes	2.8 · +0.3	3.4 ▲ +1.8	2.45 ▼ -2.1	10m
Unibet	2.7 · +0.0	3.5 · +0.0	2.4 · +0.0	10m
WilliamHill	2.8 · +0.1	3.25 ▲ +1.4	2.4 ▼ -1.5	10m

bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: yes -3.1 pts at 6.5h

1.66Yes 56% ▼ -3.1 ptsopened 1.572.1No 44% ▲ +3.0 ptsopened 2.25

Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Last
bet365	1.66 ▼ -3.1	2.1 ▲ +3.0	10m
Betfair	1.53 · -0.7	2.38 · +0.7	10m
BetVictor	1.65 ▼ -4.1	2.1 ▲ +4.1	10m
Unibet	1.52 · +0.8	2.4 · -0.8	10m
WilliamHill	1.7 ▼ -4.4	2.15 ▲ +4.4	10m

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: under +2.4 pts at 8.5h · late move: over +1.7 pts inside the final hour

1.83Over 53% ▼ -1.9 ptsopened 1.762.07Under 47% ▲ +1.9 ptsopened 2.15

Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Last
Pinnacle	1.83 ▼ -1.9	2.07 ▲ +1.9	10m
bet365	1.9 ▼ -5.0	1.9 ▲ +5.0	10m
Betfair	1.65 · -0.8	2.2 · +0.8	10m
BetVictor	1.8 ▼ -4.2	1.88 ▲ +4.2	10m
Unibet	1.65 · +0.3	2.18 · -0.3	10m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.9Home 33% P 33%3.4Draw 28% P 28%2.4Away 39% P 39%

Double Chance

1.53Hamburg or Draw 31%1.33Hamburg or Mainz 35%1.4Draw or Mainz 34%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.9Over 50% P 53%1.9Under 50% P 47%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 63%2.2Under 42% P 37%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Home	33%	34%	31%	-2.8
Draw	28%	28%	28%	-0.1
Away	39%	39%	42%	+3.0

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 59% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

	This match	Band	Actual	±
Over 2.5	53%	54%	55%	+0.8

Tobias Reichel

Career: 59 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match: 3.93 (3.81 yellow · 0.08 red)
Fouls / match: 24.9 · 6.3 fouls per card
Penalties / match: 0.32
Cards to home side: 47%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 52 matches)

Metric	Referee	League	vs peers	pct
Cards / match	4.06	4.15	-0.35	44
Fouls / match	24.7	22.3	+2.05
Fouls per card	6.1	5.4	+1.00 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match	0.33	0.33	-0.04	41
Time added	7.4	6.8	+0.51	82

First card: 37' on average
Card timing: 13% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side: 48% (league 47%)
VAR events / match: 1.59

Recent matches

Date	Y	R	Fouls	Pens	1st card	+min
2026-05-09	4	0	20	0	45'	7
2026-04-12	5	1	23	2	24'	11
2026-03-14	3	0	20	0	69'	12
2026-02-21	3	0	19	1	43'	7
2026-01-24	5	0	15	0	78'	10
2025-12-06	1	0	12	0	90'	5
2025-11-08 · Hamburger SV	2	0	22	0	12'	8
2025-10-17	8	0	36	0	36'	7
2025-09-27 · FSV Mainz 05	3	1	26	0	43'	10

Momentum

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Events

Stats

Season context

League this season · 2026/2027

Trends

Lineups

Bench

Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad

Hamburger SV · Last 365 days

FSV Mainz 05 · Last 365 days

Absences

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Commentary

In-Play Odds

Competition

Venue

Teams

Referee

Weather

Where to watch · 82

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

All meetings · 25 matches since 2005

Last 10 · 10 matches

Last 5 · 5 matches

Recent meetings

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 3 matches

FSV Mainz 05 · 3 matches

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Hamburger SV · 34 matches

FSV Mainz 05 · 44 matches

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Latest prices

Fulltime Result

Double Chance

Draw No Bet

Both Teams To Score

Goals Over/Under

Total Corners

Number of Cards

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 37.5–40% · 491 fixtures

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,943 fixtures

Tobias Reichel

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 52 matches)

Recent matches