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Bundesliga · Matchweek 2

Momentum

B04FCU
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
2

Venue

Stadium
BayArena, Leverkusen
Capacity
30,210
Surface
grass
Attendance
29,629

Teams

Coaches
Carles Martínez Novell · Mauro Lustrinelli
Position
14 · 9
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-1-2

Referee

Robin Braun

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
22.1° (feels 21.9°)
Wind
6.0
Humidity
57%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SC Freiburg 3300 1019 9 WWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 3300 826 9 WWW
3 FC Augsburg 3210 936 7 WWD
4 FC Bayern München 3210 725 7 WDW
5 RB Leipzig 3201 936 6 WLW
6 Elversberg 3201 871 6 WWL
7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3111 853 4 LWD
8 FSV Mainz 05 3111 633 4 DWL
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 3111 78-1 4 DLW
10 Werder Bremen 3111 56-1 4 LWD
11 Schalke 04 3111 34-1 4 LDW
12 FC Köln 3111 57-2 4 WLD
13 TSG Hoffenheim 3102 67-1 3 LLW
14 VfB Stuttgart 3102 68-2 3 LWL
15 Paderborn 3012 04-4 1 DLL
16 FC Union Berlin 3012 410-6 1 DLL
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3003 312-9 0 LLL
18 Hamburger SV 3003 012-12 0 LLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

LDL 0W 1D 2L · 1 pts (0.33 ppg) · GF 4 GA 7 · xG 5.67–6.97 · xPts 3.69

  • L A Elversberg 2–3 xG 1.94–1.27 GER BI
  • D H Hamburger SV 1–1 xG 3.14–2.63 GER BI
  • L A VfB Stuttgart 1–3 xG 0.58–3.07 GER BI

FC Union Berlin

WWD 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 7.24–3.32 · xPts 6.49

  • D H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3 xG 2.13–1.19 GER BI
  • W H FC Augsburg 4–0 xG 2.36–0.63 GER BI
  • W A FSV Mainz 05 3–1 xG 2.75–1.5 GER BI

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 15 matches since 2019

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 85 draws2 FC Union Berlin

Goals 27–9 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 40%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 63 draws1 FC Union Berlin

Goals 20–4 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 31 draws1 FC Union Berlin

Goals 8–2 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • L FC Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W FC Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D FC Union Berlin 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–0 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 FC Union Berlin GER BI · Regular Season
MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen all · 3Bayer 04 Leverkusen at home · 1FC Union Berlin all · 3FC Union Berlin away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.59) · stands out: when level +0.81

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.594
Early press (0-15, level)+0.664
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.872

Game state

When ahead+0.453
When level+0.814
When behind+0.702
10 min after conceding-0.082
10 min after scoring+0.784

Situations

At home+0.392
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.594

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.762
As favourite+0.594

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.314
Conceded when ahead-0.263
Conceded late (76+)-0.593

Ahead vs level -0.37 · Behind vs level -0.12

FC Union Berlin · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.56

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.073
Early press (0-15, level)-0.563
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.182

Game state

When level-0.513
When behind+0.023
10 min after conceding-0.403
10 min after scoring-0.202

Situations

At home-0.052
4+ days rest-0.073

Opposition

Evenly matched-0.052

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.173
Conceded late (76+)-0.362

Ahead vs level +0.05 · Behind vs level +0.53

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Current: unbeaten 3 · wins 1 · scoring 12 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-13 100%1.332.671.672.740.87

FC Union Berlin

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-1-22 67%0.00.53.51.342.95
4-1-3-21 33%1.03.03.02.131.19

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +2.9 pts at 1.5h

1.38Home 70% ▲ +3.9 ptsopened 1.465.56Draw 17% ▼ -1.3 ptsopened 5.167.56Away 13% ▼ -2.5 ptsopened 6.3
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.38 ▲ +3.95.56 ▼ -1.37.56 ▼ -2.510m
bet3651.33 ▲ +4.65.5 ▼ -2.77.5 ▼ -1.910m
Betfair1.44 · +0.05.0 · -0.46.5 · +0.410m
BetVictor1.33 ▲ +5.45.5 ▼ -2.87.5 ▼ -2.710m
Coral1.36 ▲ +4.45.5 ▼ -2.37.0 ▼ -2.110m
Ladbrokes1.36 ▲ +4.45.5 ▼ -2.37.0 ▼ -2.110m
Unibet1.42 ▲ +1.54.75 · -0.66.5 · -0.910m
WilliamHill1.36 ▲ +3.85.0 ▼ -1.67.0 ▼ -2.210m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.33Home 70% P 70%5.5Draw 17% P 17%7.5Away 12% P 13%

Double Chance

1.1Bayer Leverkusen or Draw 43%1.16Bayer Leverkusen or Union Berlin 41%3.0Draw or Union Berlin 16%

Draw No Bet

1.121 84%6.02 16%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.4Over 68% P 69%3.0Under 32% P 31%

Total Corners

11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.629 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%

Number of Cards

3.51.66Over 56% P 51%2.1Under 44% P 49%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 67.5–70% · away 12.5–15% · 243 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home70%68%68%-0.1
Draw17%18%18%-0.3
Away13%13%14%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.4 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 65%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 67.5–70% · 626 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.569%69%69%+0.6

Robin Braun

Career
13 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.23 (4.0 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
21.5 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.54
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 13 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.624.14+0.8985
Fouls / match21.522.3-0.86
Fouls per card4.75.4-1.25 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.540.32+2.37100
Time added8.56.8+1.6696
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
53% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-04-26 10 290 65'7
2026-03-21 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 80 231 25'8
2026-02-20 50 290 12'14
2026-01-31 · FC Union Berlin 40 291 8'9
2025-12-14 40 151 50'8
2025-11-22 51 230 34'7
2025-10-25 10 170 37'4
2025-09-27 40 161 24'8