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Bundesliga · Matchweek 2

Momentum

TSGBVB
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
2

Venue

Stadium
PreZero Arena, Sinsheim
Capacity
30,150
Surface
grass
Attendance
30,150

Teams

Coaches
Christian Ilzer · Niko Kovač
Position
13 · 5
Formation
4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1

Referee

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
26.0° (feels 26.0°)
Wind
4.8
Humidity
32%

Where to watch · 182

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SC Freiburg 3300 1019 9 WWW
2 Borussia Dortmund 3300 826 9 WWW
3 FC Augsburg 3210 936 7 WWD
4 FC Bayern München 3210 725 7 WDW
5 RB Leipzig 3201 936 6 WLW
6 Elversberg 3201 871 6 WWL
7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3111 853 4 LWD
8 FSV Mainz 05 3111 633 4 DWL
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 3111 78-1 4 DLW
10 Werder Bremen 3111 56-1 4 LWD
11 Schalke 04 3111 34-1 4 LDW
12 FC Köln 3111 57-2 4 WLD
13 TSG Hoffenheim 3102 67-1 3 LLW
14 VfB Stuttgart 3102 68-2 3 LWL
15 Paderborn 3012 04-4 1 DLL
16 FC Union Berlin 3012 410-6 1 DLL
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 3003 312-9 0 LLL
18 Hamburger SV 3003 012-12 0 LLL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

TSG Hoffenheim

WLL 1W 0D 2L · 3 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 7 · xG 4.99–3.71 · xPts 5.03

  • L A FC Köln 2–3 xG 1.75–1.74 GER BI
  • L A Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4 xG 1.65–1.02 GER BI
  • W H Werder Bremen 1–0 xG 1.59–0.95 GER BI

Borussia Dortmund

WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 2 · xG 5.93–2.65 · xPts 6.17

  • W H Hamburger SV 2–0 xG 1.47–0.78 GER BI
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 2.66–0.7 GER BI
  • W H Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 xG 1.79–1.18 GER BI

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 37 matches since 2008

TSG Hoffenheim 911 draws17 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 54–61 · 3.11 per match · BTTS 76% · over 2.5 62%

Last 10 · 10 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 21 draws7 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 13–20 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

TSG Hoffenheim 11 draws3 Borussia Dortmund

Goals 7–10 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • W TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 2–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • D Borussia Dortmund 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • W Borussia Dortmund 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 1–3 Borussia Dortmund neutral GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
  • L Borussia Dortmund 1–0 TSG Hoffenheim GER BI · Regular Season
  • L TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund GER BI · Regular Season
MetricTSG Hoffenheim all · 3TSG Hoffenheim at home · 2Borussia Dortmund all · 3Borussia Dortmund away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

TSG Hoffenheim · 4 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.37) · stands out: when behind +0.94

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.374
Early press (0-15, level)+0.574
Late push (76+, level)-0.532
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.073

Game state

When ahead-0.103
When level+0.374
When behind+0.943
10 min after conceding-0.124
10 min after scoring+0.013

Situations

At home-0.012
Away+0.762
4+ days rest+0.374

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.012
Evenly matched+0.053

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.184
Conceded when ahead-0.033
Conceded late (76+)-0.154

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level +0.57

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

TSG Hoffenheim

Current: winless 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-22 67%0.02.03.01.541.8
4-2-3-11 33%3.02.01.02.271.73

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-12 67%3.03.01.01.750.89
3-4-31 33%3.02.00.01.470.78

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -3.4 pts at 8.5h

2.67Home 36% ▲ +4.0 ptsopened 2.983.85Draw 25% · +0.2 ptsopened 3.862.54Away 38% ▼ -4.1 ptsopened 2.28
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle2.67 ▲ +4.03.85 · +0.22.54 ▼ -4.110m
bet3652.45 ▲ +5.43.75 · +0.82.62 ▼ -6.210m
Betfair2.88 · -0.43.9 · +0.82.3 · -0.410m
BetVictor2.5 ▲ +4.53.9 · -0.52.45 ▼ -4.010m
Coral2.5 ▲ +3.43.8 · -0.02.5 ▼ -3.310m
Ladbrokes2.5 ▲ +3.43.8 · -0.02.5 ▼ -3.310m
Unibet2.8 · -0.43.8 · +0.12.23 · +0.310m
WilliamHill2.5 ▲ +4.13.6 · +0.12.45 ▼ -4.110m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.45Home 39% P 36%3.75Draw 25% P 25%2.62Away 36% P 38%

Double Chance

1.53TSG Hoffenheim or Draw 30%1.25TSG Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund 37%1.44Draw or Borussia Dortmund 32%

Draw No Bet

1.831 50%1.832 50%

Both Teams To Score

1.4Yes 66%2.75No 34%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.44Over 66% P 65%2.75Under 34% P 35%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 56%2.0Under 46% P 44%
4.52.2Over 42% P 36%1.61Under 58% P 64%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 35–37.5% · away 37.5–40% · 153 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home36%36%35%-1.3
Draw25%26%30%+4.3
Away38%38%35%-3.0

In those fixtures: 3.0 goals a game · BTTS 61% · over 2.5 53%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%66%69%+3.2

Matthias Jöllenbeck

Career
72 matches · 7 seasons
Cards / match
4.15 (4.01 yellow · 0.07 red)
Fouls / match
23.1 · 5.6 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.42
Cards to home side
46%

Style in Bundesliga (5-year window · 64 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.024.14-0.4337
Fouls / match22.122.3-0.25
Fouls per card5.55.4+0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.410.32+0.8785
Time added7.26.8+0.3067
First card
37' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 40% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.14

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-13 30 1
2026-07-30 110 401 22'5
2026-05-09 10 131 90'8
2026-04-17 50 81 71'9
2026-03-21 · Borussia Dortmund 50 183 45'11
2026-03-07 20 190 82'10
2026-02-28 90 231 20'13
2026-02-15 30 160 48'9
2026-02-01 · Borussia Dortmund 40 222 40'12
2026-01-13 40 230 9'10