Rating 7.15 (94th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (29% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Liga Portugal · Matchweek 7
Momentum
– NacionalFamalicão –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Waiting for statistics…
Season context
| Nacional | at home | Stat | league | away | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0 #9 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 55.3 #5 |
| 10.5 #10 | – | Shots total | 12.2 | – | 9.2 #16 |
| 2.8 #13 | – | Shots on target | 4.1 | – | 2.8 #13 |
| 3.3 #13 | – | Corners | 4.4 | – | 5.8 #4 |
| 10.2 #16 | – | Fouls | 12.7 | – | 12.2 #12 |
| 1.0 #10 | – | Offsides | 1.2 | – | 0.7 #14 |
| 16.5 #8 | – | Tackles | 15.9 | – | 17.7 #3 |
| 87.0 #12 | – | Attacks | 92.9 | – | 101.5 #6 |
| 36.0 #11 | – | Dangerous attacks | 40.6 | – | 47.0 #6 |
| 408.3 #9 | – | Passes | 430.4 | – | 478.8 #4 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 2.2 #7 |
| – | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.2 #1 |
| 0.7 #10 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 0.5 #14 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 48.9 | – | – #3 |
| – #9 | – | Cleansheet | 28.7 | – | – #9 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 26.3 | – | – #1 |
| 1.2 #9 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 0.9 #14 |
| -0.0 #13 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | -0.1 #14 |
| – #6 | – | Failed to score | 28.1 | – | – #6 |
| 1.2 #9 | 1.7 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 #13 |
| 1.8 #5 | 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 #10 |
| – | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #7 |
| 7.8 #11 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 9.0 #8 |
| – #2 | – | Lost | 36.7 | – | – #10 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #5 |
| 6.7 #12 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.7 #13 |
| 2.7 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 2.9 | – | 2.2 #12 |
| 5.8 #14 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.7 | – | 4.3 #16 |
| 5.0 #7 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 4.2 #16 |
| 4.7 #7 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 4.8 #4 |
| – #12 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #16 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 306
- Goals / match
- 2.74 (home 1.32 · away 1.42)
- Home / draw / away
- 40% · 26% · 34%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 48% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.26 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nacional · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 6.82 (29th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 88% of minutes
Rating 6.92 (73th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Famalicão · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 6.96 (80th pct) · G+A 0 + 0 (0% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 6.94 (78th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (20% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Rating 6.81 (48th pct) · G+A 0 + 1 (20% of team goals) · 98% of minutes
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 7
Venue
- Stadium
- Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
- Capacity
- 5,132
- Surface
- grass
Teams
- Coaches
- Alexandre Crispim Santos · Carlos Soares da Costa Faria Carvalhal
- Position
- 15 · 13
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Gustavo Fernandes Correia
Weather
- Conditions
- light rain
- Temperature
- 21.0° (feels 20.8°)
- Wind
- 2.3
- Humidity
- 64%
Where to watch · 2
Portugal
Sport TV 2 · Sport TV Multiscreen
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Arouca |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WLWDL |
| 6 |  Estrela Amadora |
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 7 |  Sporting Braga |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 8 |  Academico Viseu |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | LDLWW |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | WWDLL |
| 10 |  Marítimo |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | WDLLL |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | LWLLW |
| 12 |  Alverca |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 | DLDLW |
| 13 |  Famalicão |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 15 |  Nacional |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 16 |  Rio Ave |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 17 |  Estoril |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Casa Pia |
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Benfica |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | WWWWW |
| 5 | Arouca |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gil Vicente |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 10 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LWLLW |
| 11 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Nacional |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 13 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Alverca |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | DLDLW |
| 15 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 16 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Rio Ave |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LWLLD |
| 18 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Sporting CP |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | WWWWD |
| 5 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Arouca |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WLWDL |
| 9 | Alverca |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | DLDLW |
| 10 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | WDLLL |
| 11 | Rio Ave |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 14 | Gil Vicente |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | WWDLL |
| 15 | Nacional |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Nacional
WLLLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 9 · xG 5.65–9.74 · xPts 4.99
- L
H
Alverca
1–3
xG 2.22–1.5
PRT PL
- L
A
Sporting CP
0–2
xG 0.07–2.69
PRT PL
- L
H
Estrela Amadora
2–3
xG 0.65–2.0
PRT PL
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0–1
xG 0.63–2.81
PRT PL
- W
H
Estoril
2–0
xG 2.08–0.74
PRT PL
DWLLLL 1W 1D 4L · 4 pts (0.67 ppg) · GF 7 GA 11 · xG 6.9–11.24 · xPts 6.19
- L
H
Alverca
1–3
xG 2.22–1.5
PRT PL
- L
A
Sporting CP
0–2
xG 0.07–2.69
PRT PL
- L
H
Estrela Amadora
2–3
xG 0.65–2.0
PRT PL
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0–1
xG 0.63–2.81
PRT PL
- W
H
Estoril
2–0
xG 2.08–0.74
PRT PL
- D
A
Santa Clara
2–2
xG 1.25–1.5
PRT PL
Famalicão
LLDDD 0W 3D 2L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 4.04–6.61 · xPts 5.16
- D
H
Sporting CP
1–1
xG 0.29–2.28
PRT PL
- D
A
Estrela Amadora
2–2
xG 1.54–1.14
PRT PL
- D
H
Gil Vicente
0–0
xG 0.37–0.31
PRT PL
- L
A
Santa Clara
0–1
xG 1.03–1.64
PRT PL
- L
H
Marítimo
1–2
xG 0.81–1.25
PRT PL
DLLDDD 0W 4D 2L · 4 pts (0.67 ppg) · GF 5 GA 7 · xG 5.34–7.5 · xPts 6.82
- D
H
Sporting CP
1–1
xG 0.29–2.28
PRT PL
- D
A
Estrela Amadora
2–2
xG 1.54–1.14
PRT PL
- D
H
Gil Vicente
0–0
xG 0.37–0.31
PRT PL
- L
A
Santa Clara
0–1
xG 1.03–1.64
PRT PL
- L
H
Marítimo
1–2
xG 0.81–1.25
PRT PL
- D
A
Estoril
1–1
xG 1.3–0.89
PRT PL
small sample 4 meetings 2024–2026
Last 4
Goals 2–3 · Nacional hosting: 1W 0D 1L · Famalicão hosting: 1W 1D 0L
At Estádio da Madeira: 2 meetings · Nacional 1 · draws 0 · Famalicão 1 · 2.0 goals per match · last away win Nov 2025
All-time since 2021: 6 meetings · Nacional 2 · draws 1 · Famalicão 3
This fixture vs the league league = last 365 days
| Metric | Fixture | League | Δ | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals per match | 1.25 | 2.71 | -1.46 | 4 |
| Both teams score | 25% | 49% | -24% | 4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 55% | -30% | 4 |
| Corners | 11.3 | 9.4 | +1.9 | 4 |
| Cards | 7.5 | 5.2 | +2.3 | 4 |
1 goalless · 0.50 first-half goals per match · red card in 1
How these games go · 4 with event data
| Nacional | Famalicão | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 1 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Scored first and won | 1 | 2 |
| Won from behind | 0 | 0 |
first goal on average in minute 41 · goal after the 75th minute in 1
When the goals come · all goals, 3 meetings
0-15'1
16-30'0
31-45'1
46-60'1
61-75'1
76-90'1
1 equaliser · 1 header
Expected goals · last 4 with xG
Deserved on xG: Nacional 0 · level 1 · Famalicão 3 — actual wins in those games 1 / 2
Against the market · 4 with closing odds
Favourite won 2 (50%), drew 1, upset 1 · market favoured Nacional 0×, Famalicão 4× · avg favourite 48%, avg price of the actual result 41%
Fixture specialists
- 1 Ibrahima Ba Famalicão · last Mar 2026
- 1 Antoine Joujou Famalicão · last Nov 2025
- 1 Óscar Aranda Famalicão · last Mar 2025
- 1 Chiheb Labidi Nacional · last Mar 2025
- 1 Daniel Penha Nacional · last Mar 2025
Last meeting · 2026-03-21 · PRT PL
Famalicão 1-0 Nacional · ref Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho
- 63' Ibrahima Ba assist Gustavo Sá 1–0
xG 1.99 – 0.47 · corners 13 · cards 6
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·
Match result
29.1%Nacional P 25%29.1%Draw P 29%41.8%Famalicão P 46%
Over / under 2.5
38.5%Over 2.5 P 44%61.5%Under 2.5 P 56%
Both teams to score
44.8%Yes55.2%No
Expected
- Nacional goals
- 0.99 (0–2)
- Famalicão goals
- 1.24 (0–3)
- Corners
- 10.0 (6–15)
- Cards
- 4.81 (2–8)
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
31.0%Nacional27.5%Draw41.5%Famalicão
Over / under 2.5
49.2%Over 2.550.8%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
54.0%Yes46.0%No
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 6 matches since 2021
Goals 4–7 · 1.83 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%
Last 10 · 6 matches
Goals 4–7 · 1.83 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 2–6 · 1.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 40%
Recent meetings
- L Famalicão 1–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Nacional 0–1 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 2–1 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Famalicão 0–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Famalicão 3–0 Nacional neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 2–1 Famalicão PRT PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Nacional all · 6 | Nacional at home · 3 | Famalicão all · 6 | Famalicão away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 0.67 | – | 0.67 | – |
| W / D / L | 1 / 1 / 4 | – | 0 / 4 / 2 | – |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | – | 0.83 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | – | 1.17 | – |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 17% | – |
| Failed to score | 33% | – | 33% | – |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 67% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | – | 33% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.15 | – | 0.89 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.87 | – | 1.25 | – |
| xG difference | -0.72 | – | -0.36 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.02 | – | -0.06 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.03 | – | 1.14 | – |
| Points vs xPts | -0.36 | – | -0.47 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 33% | – | 50% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.50 | – | 0.67 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | – | 0.50 | – |
| Came back from behind | 20% | – | 50% | – |
| Leads held | 50% | – | 0% | – |
| Minutes leading | 12% | – | 20% | – |
| Minutes level | 44% | – | 64% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 44% | – | 16% | – |
| First goal (min) | 47 | – | 33 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 27 | – | 51 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 57% | – | 40% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 27% | – | 71% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.33 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.17 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 55% | – |
| Shots | 10.5 | – | 9.2 | – |
| On target | 2.8 | – | 2.8 | – |
| Shot conversion | 11% | – | 9% | – |
| Shots inside box | 56% | – | 47% | – |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | – | 1.6 | – |
| Corners | 3.3 | – | 5.8 | – |
| xG from set plays | 24% | – | 32% | – |
| Goals from headers | 29% | – | 25% | – |
| Pressure index | 9.3 | – | 10.6 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 43.8 | – | 49.0 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | – | 85% | – |
| Fouls | 9.5 | – | 12.0 | – |
| Cards | 1.33 | – | 2.17 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'11
16–30'02
31–45'25
46–60'01
61–75'21
76–90'21
Famalicão
0–15'20
16–30'02
31–45'10
46–60'01
61–75'02
76–90'22
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.33
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.246
Early press (0-15, level)-0.176
Late push (76+, level)-0.192
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.284
Game state
When ahead-0.492
When level-0.226
When behind-0.185
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.334
Situations
At home-0.193
Away-0.283
4+ days rest-0.246
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.162
v bottom-tier opponents-0.262
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.283
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.126
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.136
Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level +0.03
Famalicão · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.34
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.026
Early press (0-15, level)-0.196
Late push (76+, level)-0.345
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.154
Game state
When ahead-0.013
When level-0.106
When behind+0.284
10 min after conceding-0.235
10 min after scoring+0.114
Situations
At home+0.003
Away-0.043
4+ days rest-0.026
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents+0.192
As favourite+0.092
Evenly matched-0.043
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.046
Conceded when ahead-0.013
Conceded late (76+)+0.026
Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level +0.37
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 67% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.22 | 1.5 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
Famalicão
Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 100% | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 1.25 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 10 | Nacional at home · 10 | Famalicão all · 10 | Famalicão away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 1 / 6 | 4 / 0 / 6 | 2 / 6 / 2 | 2 / 6 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| xG difference | -0.53 | -0.10 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.26 | -0.23 |
| xPts / match | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.44 | 1.51 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.10 | -0.16 | -0.24 | -0.31 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Came back from behind | 14% | 0% | 60% | 60% |
| Leads held | 60% | 67% | 40% | 40% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 24% | 17% | 23% |
| Minutes level | 45% | 48% | 66% | 61% |
| Minutes trailing | 36% | 28% | 17% | 16% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 44 | 48 | 33 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 26 | 30 | 44 | 42 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 75% | 67% | 60% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 33% | 42% | 56% | 60% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 51% | 55% | 50% |
| Shots | 12.2 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 9.2 |
| On target | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 57% | 59% | 56% | 62% |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 27% | 41% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | 17% | 25% | 20% |
| Pressure index | 9.1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 10.8 |
| Dominant minutes | 42.0 | 44.6 | 56.3 | 49.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 78% | 85% | 82% |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 12.8 |
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.40 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'21
16–30'14
31–45'35
46–60'01
61–75'32
76–90'32
Famalicão
0–15'21
16–30'03
31–45'10
46–60'11
61–75'12
76–90'42
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.67 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.13 | 1.35 |
Famalicão
Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 90% | 1.22 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.07 | 0.29 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 35 | Nacional at home · 18 | Famalicão all · 35 | Famalicão away · 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 18 | 35 | 18 |
| Points per game | 0.97 | 1.28 | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| W / D / L | 9 / 7 / 19 | 7 / 2 / 9 | 12 / 14 / 9 | 4 / 9 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Goals against / match | 1.37 | 1.28 | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 33% | 40% | 28% |
| Failed to score | 31% | 22% | 29% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 50% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 56% | 37% | 33% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.26 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| xG against / match | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.03 | 1.15 |
| xG difference | -0.41 | -0.16 | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.12 | 0.09 | -0.23 | -0.38 |
| xPts / match | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.62 | 1.48 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.19 | -0.31 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 37% | 50% | 49% | 44% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.77 | 1.67 | 2.18 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.48 | 0.88 | 0.64 | 0.38 |
| Came back from behind | 24% | 25% | 47% | 44% |
| Leads held | 56% | 58% | 63% | 44% |
| Minutes leading | 18% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Minutes level | 55% | 55% | 60% | 61% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 23% | 18% | 17% |
| First goal (min) | 44 | 44 | 46 | 43 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 37 | 42 | 50 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 62% | 74% | 63% | 62% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 52% | 59% | 71% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| Late goals against | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 50% | 53% | 50% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 10.2 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 58% | 57% | 64% | 64% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| xG from set plays | 39% | 44% | 31% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 18% | 25% | 25% |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 11.1 |
| Dominant minutes | 39.7 | 44.4 | 54.1 | 48.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 78% | 83% | 82% |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 13.1 | 14.6 | 15.1 |
| Cards | 2.89 | 3.33 | 2.43 | 2.44 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'48
16–30'45
31–45'79
46–60'67
61–75'109
76–90'910
Famalicão
0–15'44
16–30'46
31–45'74
46–60'76
61–75'83
76–90'1111
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 35 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1535
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0035
Late push (76+, level)-0.1215
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1718
Game state
When ahead-0.3716
When level-0.1035
When behind-0.1225
10 min after conceding-0.1827
10 min after scoring+0.0424
Situations
With ten men-0.105
Against ten men-0.073
At home-0.1318
Away-0.1817
4+ days rest-0.1535
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.437
v mid-tier opponents-0.209
v bottom-tier opponents-0.0411
As favourite-0.056
Evenly matched-0.0515
As underdog-0.3114
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2735
Conceded when ahead+0.4616
Conceded late (76+)+0.0533
Ahead vs level -0.26 · Behind vs level -0.01
Famalicão · 35 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.16) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.64
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.1635
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0935
Late push (76+, level)-0.0018
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1114
Game state
When ahead+0.3219
When level+0.1035
When behind+0.1417
10 min after conceding-0.1821
10 min after scoring+0.6425
Situations
With ten men-0.052
Against ten men-0.316
At home+0.2517
Away+0.0718
4+ days rest+0.1635
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.228
v mid-tier opponents+0.046
v bottom-tier opponents+0.3313
As favourite+0.3619
Evenly matched+0.068
As underdog-0.228
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.0735
Conceded when ahead-0.1819
Conceded late (76+)-0.0934
Ahead vs level +0.22 · Behind vs level +0.04
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 13 37% | 1.08 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 1.07 | 1.75 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 29% | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 11% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 1.33 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.22 | 1.28 |
Famalicão
Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 6 · scoring 2 · conceding 2
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 26 74% | 1.31 | 1.15 | 1.08 | 1.37 | 1.12 |
| 4-3-3 | 7 20% | 1.86 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 1.61 | 0.69 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.03 | 1.17 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 108 snapshots · last 12.5h before kick-off · biggest step: away -1.9 pts at 4.7d
3.84Home 25% · +0.3 ptsopened 3.833.31Draw 29% · +0.9 ptsopened 3.372.1Away 46% ▼ -1.2 ptsopened 2.02
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.84 · +0.3 | 3.31 · +0.9 | 2.1 ▼ -1.2 | 12.5h |
| bet365 | 3.6 ▲ +2.1 | 3.4 · +0.1 | 2.05 ▼ -2.2 | 12.5h |
| Betfair | 3.7 · -0.2 | 3.4 · +0.5 | 2.05 · -0.3 | 12.5h |
| BetVictor | 3.5 · -0.1 | 3.2 · +0.3 | 2.0 · -0.2 | 12.5h |
| Coral | 3.6 · +0.1 | 3.3 · +0.9 | 2.1 · -1.0 | 12.5h |
| Ladbrokes | 3.6 · -0.8 | 3.3 · +0.8 | 2.05 · -0.0 | 12.5h |
| Unibet | 3.6 · -0.3 | 3.2 · +0.5 | 1.93 · -0.2 | 12.5h |
| WilliamHill | 3.6 · -0.3 | 3.2 · -0.3 | 2.0 · +0.6 | 12.5h |
BetVictor (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 108 snapshots · last 12.5h before kick-off
1.85Yes 50% · -0.5 ptsopened 1.831.83No 50% · +0.5 ptsopened 1.85
Yes No consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetVictor | 1.85 · -0.5 | 1.83 · +0.5 | 12.5h |
| bet365 | 1.9 · +0.0 | 1.9 · +0.0 | 12.5h |
| Betfair | 1.9 · -0.4 | 1.9 · +0.4 | 12.5h |
| WilliamHill | 1.85 · +0.0 | 1.85 · +0.0 | 12.5h |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 108 snapshots · last 12.5h before kick-off · biggest step: over -1.8 pts at 20.5h
2.17Over 44% · -0.8 ptsopened 2.111.73Under 56% · +0.8 ptsopened 1.74
Over Under consensus of 4 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.17 · -0.8 | 1.73 · +0.8 | 12.5h |
| bet365 | 2.1 ▼ -1.3 | 1.7 ▲ +1.3 | 12.5h |
| Betfair | 2.15 ▼ -1.5 | 1.67 ▲ +1.5 | 12.5h |
| BetVictor | 2.05 ▼ -1.1 | 1.66 ▲ +1.1 | 12.5h |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 12.5h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
3.6Home 26% P 25%3.4Draw 28% P 29%2.05Away 46% P 46%
Double Chance
1.72Nacional or Draw 27%1.3Nacional or Famalicao 36%1.28Draw or Famalicao 37%
Draw No Bet
2.51 38%1.52 62%
Both Teams To Score
1.9Yes 50%1.9No 50%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.1Over 45% P 44%1.7Under 55% P 56%
Total Corners
7.0Under 6 12%2.756 - 8 31%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 45–47.5% · 466 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 25% | 26% | 26% | -0.3 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 28% | +0.2 |
| Away | 46% | 46% | 46% | +0.1 |
In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 51%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,473 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 44% | 43% | -1.2 |
Gustavo Fernandes Correia
- Career
- 101 matches · 8 seasons
- Cards / match
- 6.28 (5.75 yellow · 0.35 red)
- Fouls / match
- 29.2 · 4.7 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.47
- Cards to home side
- 46%
Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 68 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 6.72 | 5.66 | +1.37 | 97 |
| Fouls / match | 29.9 | 27.9 | +1.04 | |
| Fouls per card | 4.5 | 4.9 | -0.78 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.48 | 0.37 | +0.88 | 82 |
| Time added | 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.13 | 42 |
- First card
- 27' on average
- Card timing
- 14% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 47% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.17
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 5 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 26' | 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 62' | 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 44' | 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 36' | 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 32' | 11 |
| 2026-07-22 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 34' | 8 |
| 2026-05-16 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 37' | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 · Famalicão | 4 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 55' | 19 |
| 2026-04-10 · Famalicão | 11 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 11' | 14 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 89' | 5 |