Rating 7.15 (94th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (29% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Liga Portugal · Matchweek 6
Momentum
– NacionalAlverca –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Loading statistics…
Season context
| Nacional | at home | Stat | league | away | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0 #9 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 43.0 #16 |
| 10.5 #10 | – | Shots total | 12.2 | – | 10.0 #14 |
| 2.8 #13 | – | Shots on target | 4.1 | – | 3.7 #10 |
| 3.3 #13 | – | Corners | 4.4 | – | 4.5 #6 |
| 10.2 #16 | – | Fouls | 12.7 | – | 13.0 #9 |
| 1.0 #10 | – | Offsides | 1.2 | – | 1.3 #5 |
| 16.5 #8 | – | Tackles | 15.9 | – | 17.5 #4 |
| 87.0 #12 | – | Attacks | 92.9 | – | 83.7 #13 |
| 36.0 #11 | – | Dangerous attacks | 40.6 | – | 29.3 #14 |
| 408.3 #9 | – | Passes | 430.4 | – | 354.2 #15 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 2.7 #3 |
| – | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.2 #1 |
| 0.7 #10 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 1.2 #6 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 48.9 | – | – #2 |
| – #9 | – | Cleansheet | 28.7 | – | – #17 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 26.3 | – | – #3 |
| 1.2 #9 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.1 #11 |
| -0.0 #13 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | 0.2 #7 |
| – #6 | – | Failed to score | 28.1 | – | – #11 |
| 1.2 #9 | 1.7 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 #7 |
| 1.8 #5 | 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 #5 |
| 7.8 #11 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 7.8 #11 |
| – #2 | – | Lost | 36.7 | – | – #6 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #5 |
| 6.7 #12 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.7 #14 |
| 2.7 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 2.9 | – | 1.5 #16 |
| 5.8 #14 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.7 | – | 5.8 #14 |
| 5.0 #7 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 4.8 #10 |
| 4.7 #7 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 4.2 #11 |
| – #12 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #12 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 306
- Goals / match
- 2.74 (home 1.32 · away 1.42)
- Home / draw / away
- 40% · 26% · 34%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 48% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.26 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nacional · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 6.82 (29th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 88% of minutes
Rating 6.92 (73th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Alverca · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 6.81 (55th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (25% of team goals) · 95% of minutes
Rating 7.19 (86th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (12% of team goals) · 90% of minutes
Rating 7.16 (79th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (25% of team goals) · 59% of minutes
Absences
Nacional
- injury Ulisses defender · Unknown Injury · 39 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 6
Venue
- Stadium
- Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
- Capacity
- 5,132
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 1,766
Teams
- Coaches
- Alexandre Crispim Santos · Sérgio Ferreira
- Position
- 11 · 16
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3
Referee
Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 23.0° (feels 23.1°)
- Wind
- 9.3
- Humidity
- 65%
Where to watch · 6
Angola
Sport TV Africa · ZAP
Cape Verde
Sport TV Africa · ZAP
Portugal
Sport TV 2 · Sport TV Multiscreen
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Arouca |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WLWDL |
| 6 |  Estrela Amadora |
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 7 |  Sporting Braga |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 8 |  Academico Viseu |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | LDLWW |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | WWDLL |
| 10 |  Marítimo |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | WDLLL |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | LWLLW |
| 12 |  Alverca |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 | DLDLW |
| 13 |  Famalicão |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 15 |  Nacional |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 16 |  Rio Ave |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 17 |  Estoril |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Casa Pia |
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Benfica |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | WWWWW |
| 5 | Arouca |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gil Vicente |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 10 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LWLLW |
| 11 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Nacional |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 13 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Alverca |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | DLDLW |
| 15 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 16 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Rio Ave |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LWLLD |
| 18 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Sporting CP |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | WWWWD |
| 5 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Arouca |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WLWDL |
| 9 | Alverca |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | DLDLW |
| 10 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | WDLLL |
| 11 | Rio Ave |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 14 | Gil Vicente |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | WWDLL |
| 15 | Nacional |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Nacional
DWLLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 6 GA 8 · xG 4.68–9.74 · xPts 4.36
- L
A
Sporting CP
0–2
xG 0.07–2.69
PRT PL
- L
H
Estrela Amadora
2–3
xG 0.65–2.0
PRT PL
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0–1
xG 0.63–2.81
PRT PL
- W
H
Estoril
2–0
xG 2.08–0.74
PRT PL
- D
A
Santa Clara
2–2
xG 1.25–1.5
PRT PL
WDWLLL 2W 1D 3L · 7 pts (1.17 ppg) · GF 8 GA 8 · xG 5.81–11.09 · xPts 5.57
- L
A
Sporting CP
0–2
xG 0.07–2.69
PRT PL
- L
H
Estrela Amadora
2–3
xG 0.65–2.0
PRT PL
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0–1
xG 0.63–2.81
PRT PL
- W
H
Estoril
2–0
xG 2.08–0.74
PRT PL
- D
A
Santa Clara
2–2
xG 1.25–1.5
PRT PL
- W
H
Vitória Guimarães
2–0
xG 1.13–1.35
PRT PL
Alverca
LDLDL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 10 · xG 5.01–8.88 · xPts 4.3
- L
H
Sporting Braga
1–2
xG 1.17–2.11
PRT PL
- D
H
Santa Clara
1–1
xG 0.39–1.3
PRT PL
- L
A
Sporting CP
1–3
xG 0.45–1.73
PRT PL
- D
H
Estrela Amadora
2–2
xG 1.4–1.29
PRT PL
- L
A
Porto
0–2
xG 1.6–2.45
PRT PL
LLDLDL 0W 2D 4L · 2 pts (0.33 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 5.65–9.56 · xPts 5.57
- L
H
Sporting Braga
1–2
xG 1.17–2.11
PRT PL
- D
H
Santa Clara
1–1
xG 0.39–1.3
PRT PL
- L
A
Sporting CP
1–3
xG 0.45–1.73
PRT PL
- D
H
Estrela Amadora
2–2
xG 1.4–1.29
PRT PL
- L
A
Porto
0–2
xG 1.6–2.45
PRT PL
- L
A
Famalicão
0–1
xG 0.64–0.67
PRT PL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
41.8%Nacional P 33%26.6%Draw P 30%31.5%Alverca P 37%
Over / under 2.5
48.4%Over 2.5 P 47%51.6%Under 2.5 P 53%
Both teams to score
53.0%Yes47.0%No
Expected
- Nacional goals
- 1.41 (0–3)
- Alverca goals
- 1.19 (0–3)
- Corners
- 9.58 (5–14)
- Cards
- 4.93 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 41.8% / 26.6% / 31.5%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
46.3%Nacional25.5%Draw28.2%Alverca
Over / under 2.5
54.6%Over 2.545.4%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
57.8%Yes42.2%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | away | 1.154 | 0.714 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.726 | 0.533 |
| btts | yes | 0.634 | 0.441 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 3 matches since 2025
Goals 2–4 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%
Last 10 · 3 matches
Goals 2–4 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%
Last 5 · 3 matches
Goals 2–4 · 2.0 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 33%
Recent meetings
- L Nacional 1–3 Alverca PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 1–0 Alverca PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Alverca 1–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Nacional all · 6 | Nacional at home · 3 | Alverca all · 6 | Alverca away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 0.67 | – | 0.83 | – |
| W / D / L | 1 / 1 / 4 | – | 1 / 2 / 3 | – |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | – | 1.33 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | – | 1.83 | – |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 0% | – |
| Failed to score | 33% | – | 17% | – |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 83% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | – | 67% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.15 | – | 1.08 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.87 | – | 1.85 | – |
| xG difference | -0.72 | – | -0.77 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.02 | – | 0.25 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.03 | – | 0.88 | – |
| Points vs xPts | -0.36 | – | -0.04 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 33% | – | 50% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.50 | – | 1.33 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Came back from behind | 20% | – | 25% | – |
| Leads held | 50% | – | 25% | – |
| Minutes leading | 12% | – | 19% | – |
| Minutes level | 44% | – | 42% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 44% | – | 39% | – |
| First goal (min) | 47 | – | 55 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 27 | – | 47 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 57% | – | 50% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 27% | – | 73% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.33 | – | 0.17 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.17 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 43% | – |
| Shots | 10.5 | – | 10.0 | – |
| On target | 2.8 | – | 3.7 | – |
| Shot conversion | 11% | – | 13% | – |
| Shots inside box | 56% | – | 58% | – |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | – | 2.0 | – |
| Corners | 3.3 | – | 4.5 | – |
| xG from set plays | 24% | – | 44% | – |
| Goals from headers | 29% | – | 38% | – |
| Pressure index | 9.3 | – | 8.7 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 43.8 | – | 41.2 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | – | 79% | – |
| Fouls | 9.5 | – | 13.0 | – |
| Cards | 1.33 | – | 2.50 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'11
16–30'02
31–45'25
46–60'01
61–75'21
76–90'21
Alverca
0–15'02
16–30'10
31–45'31
46–60'15
61–75'21
76–90'12
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.33
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.246
Early press (0-15, level)-0.176
Late push (76+, level)-0.192
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.284
Game state
When ahead-0.492
When level-0.226
When behind-0.185
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.334
Situations
At home-0.193
Away-0.283
4+ days rest-0.246
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.162
v bottom-tier opponents-0.262
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.283
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.126
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.136
Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level +0.03
Alverca · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.45
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)-0.066
Late push (76+, level)-0.382
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.453
Game state
When ahead-0.304
When level-0.126
When behind+0.164
10 min after conceding+0.176
10 min after scoring+0.035
Situations
At home-0.153
Away+0.123
4+ days rest-0.046
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.033
v bottom-tier opponents+0.152
Evenly matched-0.292
As underdog-0.033
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.036
Conceded when ahead+0.414
Conceded late (76+)+0.126
Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level +0.28
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 67% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.22 | 1.5 |
Alverca
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 15
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 3 50% | 0.67 | 1.33 | 2.0 | 0.74 | 1.44 |
| 3-4-3 | 3 50% | 1.0 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.42 | 2.26 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 10 | Nacional at home · 10 | Alverca all · 10 | Alverca away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 1 / 6 | 4 / 0 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.24 | 1.27 | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.43 | 1.45 |
| xG difference | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.45 | -0.32 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.04 | -0.07 | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| xPts / match | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.10 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.24 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.33 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| Came back from behind | 14% | 0% | 17% | 29% |
| Leads held | 60% | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 24% | 22% | 24% |
| Minutes level | 45% | 48% | 48% | 42% |
| Minutes trailing | 36% | 28% | 30% | 34% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 44 | 42 | 41 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 26 | 30 | 50 | 50 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 75% | 46% | 40% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 33% | 42% | 73% | 64% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 51% | 43% | 46% |
| Shots | 12.2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| On target | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 9% | 12% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 57% | 59% | 60% | 61% |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 5.7 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 27% | 44% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | 17% | 46% | 30% |
| Pressure index | 9.1 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 42.0 | 44.6 | 39.1 | 39.2 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 78% | 80% | 82% |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 11.2 |
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 2.80 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'21
16–30'14
31–45'35
46–60'01
61–75'32
76–90'32
Alverca
0–15'22
16–30'10
31–45'32
46–60'17
61–75'31
76–90'13
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.67 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.13 | 1.35 |
Alverca
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 15
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 5 50% | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.81 | 1.18 |
| 3-4-3 | 5 50% | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 35 | Nacional at home · 18 | Alverca all · 35 | Alverca away · 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 18 | 35 | 18 |
| Points per game | 0.97 | 1.28 | 1.14 | 0.83 |
| W / D / L | 9 / 7 / 19 | 7 / 2 / 9 | 10 / 10 / 15 | 4 / 3 / 11 |
| Goals for / match | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.54 | 1.72 |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 33% | 14% | 6% |
| Failed to score | 31% | 22% | 29% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 56% | 49% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.26 | 1.41 | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| xG against / match | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.37 | 1.57 |
| xG difference | -0.41 | -0.16 | -0.22 | -0.60 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.12 | 0.09 | -0.06 | 0.03 |
| xPts / match | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.11 | -0.19 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 37% | 50% | 37% | 22% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.77 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 2.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.48 | 0.88 | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| Came back from behind | 24% | 25% | 32% | 21% |
| Leads held | 56% | 58% | 62% | 80% |
| Minutes leading | 18% | 22% | 18% | 17% |
| Minutes level | 55% | 55% | 53% | 49% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 23% | 29% | 34% |
| First goal (min) | 44 | 44 | 50 | 44 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 37 | 44 | 42 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 62% | 74% | 63% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 52% | 63% | 55% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Late goals against | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 50% | 45% | 43% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.3 | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Shots inside box | 58% | 57% | 63% | 61% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| xG from set plays | 39% | 44% | 44% | 32% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 18% | 29% | 28% |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Dominant minutes | 39.7 | 44.4 | 41.0 | 34.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 78% | 80% | 80% |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 12.1 |
| Cards | 2.89 | 3.33 | 2.31 | 2.83 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'48
16–30'45
31–45'79
46–60'67
61–75'109
76–90'910
Alverca
0–15'56
16–30'46
31–45'58
46–60'515
61–75'79
76–90'1210
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 35 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1535
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0035
Late push (76+, level)-0.1215
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1718
Game state
When ahead-0.3716
When level-0.1035
When behind-0.1225
10 min after conceding-0.1827
10 min after scoring+0.0424
Situations
With ten men-0.105
Against ten men-0.073
At home-0.1318
Away-0.1817
4+ days rest-0.1535
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.437
v mid-tier opponents-0.209
v bottom-tier opponents-0.0411
As favourite-0.056
Evenly matched-0.0515
As underdog-0.3114
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2735
Conceded when ahead+0.4616
Conceded late (76+)+0.0533
Ahead vs level -0.26 · Behind vs level -0.01
Alverca · 35 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.07) · stands out: late push (76+, level) -0.32
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.0735
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1435
Late push (76+, level)-0.3215
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.2613
Game state
When ahead-0.1316
When level-0.1035
When behind+0.0322
10 min after conceding-0.1430
10 min after scoring+0.1424
Situations
With ten men-0.304
At home-0.0517
Away-0.0918
4+ days rest-0.0735
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.149
v mid-tier opponents-0.279
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0510
As favourite+0.147
Evenly matched-0.0913
As underdog-0.1715
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.1635
Conceded when ahead+0.1916
Conceded late (76+)+0.1131
Ahead vs level -0.03 · Behind vs level +0.12
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 13 37% | 1.08 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 1.07 | 1.75 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 29% | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 11% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 1.33 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 6% | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.24 | 1.15 |
Alverca
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 5 · conceding 15
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-3 | 24 69% | 1.25 | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 10 29% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.96 | 1.43 |
| 5-4-1 | 1 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.31 | 2.85 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.9 pts at 2.5h
2.89Home 33% ▼ -2.9 ptsopened 2.623.27Draw 30% · +0.7 ptsopened 3.32.62Away 37% ▲ +2.2 ptsopened 2.74
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.89 ▼ -2.9 | 3.27 · +0.7 | 2.62 ▲ +2.2 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.7 ▼ -3.4 | 3.4 · -1.0 | 2.6 ▲ +4.3 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.8 ▼ -2.0 | 3.2 ▲ +1.1 | 2.55 · +0.9 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 2.75 ▼ -3.3 | 3.2 · -0.0 | 2.4 ▲ +3.3 | 10m |
| Coral | 2.8 ▼ -2.9 | 3.3 · -0.2 | 2.5 ▲ +3.1 | 10m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.8 ▼ -3.7 | 3.25 · +0.7 | 2.5 ▲ +3.1 | 10m |
| Unibet | 2.55 · +0.2 | 3.35 · -0.3 | 2.7 · +0.1 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 2.75 ▼ -3.1 | 3.0 ▲ +1.2 | 2.5 ▲ +1.9 | 10m |
BetVictor (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: yes -1.6 pts at 5.5h
1.75Yes 53% · -0.9 ptsopened 1.731.95No 47% · +0.9 ptsopened 2.0
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetVictor | 1.75 · -0.9 | 1.95 · +0.9 | 10m |
| bet365 | 1.8 · +0.0 | 1.95 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 1.73 ▲ +1.6 | 2.05 ▼ -1.6 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.71 · -0.1 | 1.98 · +0.1 | 10m |
| WilliamHill | 1.8 ▼ -2.1 | 1.91 ▲ +2.1 | 10m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: under +1.9 pts at 4.5h · late move: under -1.0 pts inside the final hour
2.08Over 47% · -0.2 ptsopened 2.041.83Under 53% · +0.2 ptsopened 1.81
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.08 · -0.2 | 1.83 · +0.2 | 10m |
| bet365 | 2.05 · +0.0 | 1.75 · +0.0 | 10m |
| Betfair | 2.0 · +0.0 | 1.8 · +0.0 | 10m |
| BetVictor | 1.95 · -0.5 | 1.73 · +0.5 | 10m |
| Unibet | 1.91 · -0.4 | 1.76 · +0.4 | 10m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.7Home 35% P 33%3.4Draw 28% P 30%2.6Away 37% P 37%
Double Chance
1.44Nacional or Draw 33%1.3Nacional or Alverca 36%1.5Draw or Alverca 31%
Draw No Bet
2.01 46%1.722 54%
Both Teams To Score
1.8Yes 52%1.95No 48%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.05Over 46% P 47%1.75Under 54% P 53%
Total Corners
7.0Under 6 13%2.756 - 8 32%2.759 - 11 32%5.512 - 14 16%13.0Over 14 7%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 35–37.5% · 691 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 33% | 34% | 34% | +0.5 |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 27% | -2.5 |
| Away | 37% | 36% | 38% | +2.0 |
In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 46% | 45% | -1.2 |
Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca
- Career
- 19 matches · 3 seasons
- Cards / match
- 5.37 (5.26 yellow · 0.05 red)
- Fouls / match
- 29.0 · 5.4 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.32
- Cards to home side
- 47%
Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 18 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 5.39 | 5.66 | -0.32 | 33 |
| Fouls / match | 29.0 | 27.9 | +0.59 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.7 | 4.9 | +0.74 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.44 | 0.37 | +0.60 | 76 |
| Time added | 8.3 | 7.7 | +0.83 | 85 |
- First card
- 28' on average
- Card timing
- 11% in first 30' · 47% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 47% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.25
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | – | 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 53' | 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 22' | 6 |
| 2026-04-13 | 7 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 7' | 7 |
| 2026-03-15 · Nacional | 8 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 16' | 8 |
| 2026-02-21 | – | – | 21 | – | – | 6 |
| 2026-02-07 | 5 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 22' | 7 |
| 2026-01-03 | 8 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 23' | 5 |
| 2025-12-21 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 23' | 9 |
| 2025-12-15 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 48' | 8 |