Rating 7.15 (94th pct) · G+A 1 + 1 (29% of team goals) · 75% of minutes
Liga Portugal · Matchweek 4
Momentum
– NacionalCFEA –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Nacional | at home | Stat | league | away | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0 #9 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 47.7 #11 |
| 10.5 #10 | – | Shots total | 12.2 | – | 12.7 #8 |
| 2.8 #13 | – | Shots on target | 4.1 | – | 4.8 #5 |
| 3.3 #13 | – | Corners | 4.4 | – | 3.8 #9 |
| 10.2 #16 | – | Fouls | 12.7 | – | 11.5 #14 |
| 1.0 #10 | – | Offsides | 1.2 | – | 0.8 #12 |
| 16.5 #8 | – | Tackles | 15.9 | – | 18.8 #2 |
| 87.0 #12 | – | Attacks | 92.9 | – | 87.7 #10 |
| 36.0 #11 | – | Dangerous attacks | 40.6 | – | 34.3 #12 |
| 408.3 #9 | – | Passes | 430.4 | – | 377.5 #13 |
| 1.3 #16 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 2.5 #5 |
| – | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.0 #6 |
| 0.7 #10 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 1.8 #2 |
| – #7 | – | Btts | 48.9 | – | – #1 |
| – #9 | – | Cleansheet | 28.7 | – | – #17 |
| – #10 | – | Draw | 26.3 | – | – #1 |
| 1.2 #9 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.5 #6 |
| -0.0 #13 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | 0.8 #2 |
| – #6 | – | Failed to score | 28.1 | – | – #13 |
| 1.2 #9 | 1.7 | Goals | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 #4 |
| 1.8 #5 | 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 #4 |
| – | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #7 |
| 7.8 #11 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 7.8 #11 |
| – #2 | – | Lost | 36.7 | – | – #14 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #5 |
| 6.7 #12 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.8 #6 |
| 2.7 #8 | – | Shots blocked | 2.9 | – | 2.5 #10 |
| 5.8 #14 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.7 | – | 9.0 #4 |
| 5.0 #7 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 5.3 #5 |
| 4.7 #7 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 3.7 #15 |
| – #12 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #8 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 306
- Goals / match
- 2.74 (home 1.32 · away 1.42)
- Home / draw / away
- 40% · 26% · 34%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 48% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.26 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nacional · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 6.82 (29th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 88% of minutes
Rating 6.92 (73th pct) · G+A 1 + 0 (14% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Estrela Amadora · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 7.25 (89th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (36% of team goals) · 99% of minutes
Rating 7.46 (97th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (36% of team goals) · 96% of minutes
Rating 6.79 (52th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (14% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Absences
Nacional
- injury Ivanildo Fernandes defender · Unknown Injury · 45 missed
- injury Ulisses defender · Unknown Injury · 37 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 4
Venue
- Stadium
- Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
- Capacity
- 5,132
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 1,864
Teams
- Coaches
- João Pedro Baptista dos Santos Brito Gião · Pedro Marques da Costa Filipe
- Position
- 8 · 11
- Formation
- 3-4-2-1 · 4-3-3
Referee
Carlos André Fernandes Macedo
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 25.6° (feels 25.9°)
- Wind
- 9.8
- Humidity
- 63%
Where to watch · 3
Portugal
Sport TV 1 · Sport TV 1 HD · Sport TV Multiscreen
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Arouca |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WLWDL |
| 6 |  Estrela Amadora |
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 7 |  Sporting Braga |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 8 |  Academico Viseu |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | LDLWW |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | WWDLL |
| 10 |  Marítimo |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | WDLLL |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | LWLLW |
| 12 |  Alverca |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 | DLDLW |
| 13 |  Famalicão |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 15 |  Nacional |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 16 |  Rio Ave |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 17 |  Estoril |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Casa Pia |
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Benfica |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | WWWWW |
| 5 | Arouca |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gil Vicente |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 10 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LWLLW |
| 11 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Nacional |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 13 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Alverca |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | DLDLW |
| 15 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 16 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Rio Ave |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LWLLD |
| 18 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Sporting CP |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | WWWWD |
| 5 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Arouca |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WLWDL |
| 9 | Alverca |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | DLDLW |
| 10 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | WDLLL |
| 11 | Rio Ave |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 14 | Gil Vicente |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | WWDLL |
| 15 | Nacional |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Nacional
LWDWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 6.09–8.02 · xPts 5.91
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0–1
xG 0.63–2.81
PRT PL
- W
H
Estoril
2–0
xG 2.08–0.74
PRT PL
- D
A
Santa Clara
2–2
xG 1.25–1.5
PRT PL
- W
H
Vitória Guimarães
2–0
xG 1.13–1.35
PRT PL
- L
A
Santa Clara
0–2
xG 1.01–1.62
PRT PL
LLWDWL 2W 1D 3L · 7 pts (1.17 ppg) · GF 7 GA 7 · xG 7.92–9.64 · xPts 7.42
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0–1
xG 0.63–2.81
PRT PL
- W
H
Estoril
2–0
xG 2.08–0.74
PRT PL
- D
A
Santa Clara
2–2
xG 1.25–1.5
PRT PL
- W
H
Vitória Guimarães
2–0
xG 1.13–1.35
PRT PL
- L
A
Santa Clara
0–2
xG 1.01–1.62
PRT PL
- L
H
AVS
1–2
xG 1.82–1.62
PRT PL
Estrela Amadora
LDDDD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 9 · xG 5.56–10.19 · xPts 4.16
- D
A
Alverca
2–2
xG 1.29–1.4
PRT PL
- D
H
Sporting CP
2–2
xG 1.01–2.52
PRT PL
- D
A
Sporting Braga
2–2
xG 0.55–2.17
PRT PL
- D
H
Famalicão
0–0
xG 0.29–2.07
PRT PL
- L
A
Moreirense
2–3
xG 2.42–2.03
PRT PL
LDDDD 0W 4D 1L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 8 GA 9 · xG 5.56–10.19 · xPts 4.16
- D
A
Alverca
2–2
xG 1.29–1.4
PRT PL
- D
H
Sporting CP
2–2
xG 1.01–2.52
PRT PL
- D
A
Sporting Braga
2–2
xG 0.55–2.17
PRT PL
- D
H
Famalicão
0–0
xG 0.29–2.07
PRT PL
- L
A
Moreirense
2–3
xG 2.42–2.03
PRT PL
All meetings · 13 matches since 2005
Goals 11–14 · 1.92 per match · BTTS 31% · over 2.5 23%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 8–10 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 20%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%
Recent meetings
- L Nacional 2–3 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 2–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Estrela Amadora 1–1 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Nacional 0–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Estrela Amadora 2–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Estrela Amadora 1–0 Nacional neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Nacional 1–2 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Estrela Amadora 0–1 Nacional neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Nacional 0–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 1–0 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Nacional all · 6 | Nacional at home · 3 | Estrela Amadora all · 6 | Estrela Amadora away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 0.67 | – | 1.67 | – |
| W / D / L | 1 / 1 / 4 | – | 2 / 4 / 0 | – |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | – | 2.33 | – |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | – | 2.00 | – |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 0% | – |
| Failed to score | 33% | – | 0% | – |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 100% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | – | 100% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.15 | – | 1.47 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.87 | – | 1.35 | – |
| xG difference | -0.72 | – | 0.12 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.02 | – | 0.86 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.03 | – | 1.45 | – |
| Points vs xPts | -0.36 | – | 0.22 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 33% | – | 33% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.50 | – | 1.00 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.25 | – | 2.00 | – |
| Came back from behind | 20% | – | 100% | – |
| Leads held | 50% | – | 40% | – |
| Minutes leading | 12% | – | 20% | – |
| Minutes level | 44% | – | 46% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 44% | – | 34% | – |
| First goal (min) | 47 | – | 48 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 27 | – | 26 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 57% | – | 79% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 27% | – | 67% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.33 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.17 | – | 0.33 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 48% | – |
| Shots | 10.5 | – | 12.7 | – |
| On target | 2.8 | – | 5.0 | – |
| Shot conversion | 11% | – | 18% | – |
| Shots inside box | 56% | – | 71% | – |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | – | 2.0 | – |
| Corners | 3.3 | – | 3.8 | – |
| xG from set plays | 24% | – | 23% | – |
| Goals from headers | 29% | – | 21% | – |
| Pressure index | 9.3 | – | 12.3 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 43.8 | – | 47.7 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | – | 82% | – |
| Fouls | 9.5 | – | 11.3 | – |
| Cards | 1.33 | – | 2.50 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'11
16–30'02
31–45'25
46–60'01
61–75'21
76–90'21
Estrela Amadora
0–15'03
16–30'10
31–45'21
46–60'44
61–75'52
76–90'22
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.33
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.246
Early press (0-15, level)-0.176
Late push (76+, level)-0.192
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.284
Game state
When ahead-0.492
When level-0.226
When behind-0.185
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.334
Situations
At home-0.193
Away-0.283
4+ days rest-0.246
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.162
v bottom-tier opponents-0.262
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.283
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.126
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.136
Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level +0.03
Estrela Amadora · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195
Game state
When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416
Situations
At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296
Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 67% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 17% | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.22 | 1.5 |
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 67% | 1.5 | 2.25 | 2.0 | 1.39 | 1.51 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 33% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.64 | 1.03 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 10 | Nacional at home · 10 | Estrela Amadora all · 10 | Estrela Amadora away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 1 / 6 | 4 / 0 / 6 | 2 / 6 / 2 | 1 / 4 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 90% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 90% | 70% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| xG difference | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.29 | -0.06 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.04 | -0.07 | 0.55 | 0.00 |
| xPts / match | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.20 | 1.32 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.10 | -0.16 | 0.00 | -0.62 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.80 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.20 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0.75 |
| Came back from behind | 14% | 0% | 75% | 38% |
| Leads held | 60% | 67% | 29% | 17% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 24% | 20% | 21% |
| Minutes level | 45% | 48% | 52% | 50% |
| Minutes trailing | 36% | 28% | 28% | 30% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 44 | 43 | 30 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 26 | 30 | 26 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 75% | 68% | 57% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 33% | 42% | 58% | 68% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 51% | 43% | 49% |
| Shots | 12.2 | 13.8 | 10.7 | 11.9 |
| On target | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 9% | 18% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 57% | 59% | 71% | 65% |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 27% | 30% | 38% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | 17% | 21% | 14% |
| Pressure index | 9.1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 11.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 42.0 | 44.6 | 39.2 | 46.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 78% | 79% | 80% |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.7 |
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'21
16–30'14
31–45'35
46–60'01
61–75'32
76–90'32
Estrela Amadora
0–15'24
16–30'11
31–45'33
46–60'44
61–75'53
76–90'44
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.67 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.13 | 1.35 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 1.68 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.64 | 1.03 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.55 | 2.17 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.29 | 2.07 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 35 | Nacional at home · 18 | Estrela Amadora all · 35 | Estrela Amadora away · 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 18 | 35 | 18 |
| Points per game | 0.97 | 1.28 | 1.06 | 0.83 |
| W / D / L | 9 / 7 / 19 | 7 / 2 / 9 | 8 / 13 / 14 | 3 / 6 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.77 | 2.11 |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 33% | 20% | 11% |
| Failed to score | 31% | 22% | 34% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 50% | 57% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 56% | 66% | 67% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.26 | 1.41 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| xG against / match | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.63 | 1.72 |
| xG difference | -0.41 | -0.16 | -0.44 | -0.58 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.12 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| xPts / match | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.22 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 37% | 50% | 31% | 33% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.77 | 1.67 | 1.45 | 0.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.48 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Came back from behind | 24% | 25% | 44% | 36% |
| Leads held | 56% | 58% | 47% | 33% |
| Minutes leading | 18% | 22% | 18% | 16% |
| Minutes level | 55% | 55% | 49% | 51% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 23% | 33% | 33% |
| First goal (min) | 44 | 44 | 40 | 36 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 37 | 30 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 62% | 74% | 57% | 58% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 52% | 60% | 58% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Late goals against | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 50% | 47% | 46% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 9.9 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
| Shots inside box | 58% | 57% | 59% | 61% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| xG from set plays | 39% | 44% | 36% | 40% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 18% | 16% | 17% |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 8.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 39.7 | 44.4 | 39.9 | 36.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 78% | 80% | 79% |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 14.0 |
| Cards | 2.89 | 3.33 | 2.83 | 2.94 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'48
16–30'45
31–45'79
46–60'67
61–75'109
76–90'910
Estrela Amadora
0–15'512
16–30'75
31–45'98
46–60'816
61–75'1214
76–90'87
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 35 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1535
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0035
Late push (76+, level)-0.1215
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1718
Game state
When ahead-0.3716
When level-0.1035
When behind-0.1225
10 min after conceding-0.1827
10 min after scoring+0.0424
Situations
With ten men-0.105
Against ten men-0.073
At home-0.1318
Away-0.1817
4+ days rest-0.1535
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.437
v mid-tier opponents-0.209
v bottom-tier opponents-0.0411
As favourite-0.056
Evenly matched-0.0515
As underdog-0.3114
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2735
Conceded when ahead+0.4616
Conceded late (76+)+0.0533
Ahead vs level -0.26 · Behind vs level -0.01
Estrela Amadora · 35 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: against ten men +0.42
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1035
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1835
Late push (76+, level)-0.0715
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0813
Game state
When ahead+0.0017
When level-0.1935
When behind-0.0125
10 min after conceding-0.2828
10 min after scoring+0.2123
Situations
With ten men-0.204
Against ten men+0.424
At home-0.1017
Away-0.1018
4+ days rest-0.1035
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.299
v mid-tier opponents-0.257
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0411
As favourite+0.352
Evenly matched+0.1012
As underdog-0.2421
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2235
Conceded when ahead+0.1317
Conceded late (76+)+0.0330
Ahead vs level +0.19 · Behind vs level +0.18
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 13 37% | 1.08 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 1.07 | 1.75 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 29% | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 11% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 1.33 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 6% | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.24 | 1.15 |
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 40% | 0.93 | 1.5 | 2.21 | 1.16 | 1.92 |
| 3-4-3 | 10 29% | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.28 | 1.78 |
| 4-3-3 | 6 17% | 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.33 | 1.48 | 0.94 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.78 | 1.49 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 2 6% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.91 | 0.76 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 120 snapshots · last 30m before kick-off
2.38Home 41% · -0.7 ptsopened 2.33.32Draw 29% · +0.4 ptsopened 3.313.21Away 30% · +0.3 ptsopened 3.19
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.38 · -0.7 | 3.32 · +0.4 | 3.21 · +0.3 | 30m |
| bet365 | 2.3 · +0.4 | 3.3 · -0.6 | 3.1 · +0.3 | 30m |
| Betfair | 2.3 · -0.3 | 3.25 ▲ +1.7 | 3.2 ▼ -1.5 | 30m |
| BetVictor | 2.25 · -1.0 | 3.25 · -0.0 | 2.9 ▲ +1.0 | 30m |
| Coral | 2.4 ▼ -1.5 | 3.25 ▲ +1.4 | 3.0 · +0.1 | 30m |
| Ladbrokes | 2.4 ▼ -2.0 | 3.25 ▲ +1.1 | 2.9 · +0.9 | 30m |
| Unibet | 2.3 · +0.0 | 3.3 · +0.0 | 3.05 · +0.0 | 30m |
| WilliamHill | 2.3 · +0.0 | 3.1 · +0.0 | 3.0 · +0.0 | 30m |
bet365 (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 120 snapshots · last 30m before kick-off · biggest step: no +1.3 pts at 3.4d
1.75Yes 53% ▼ -1.3 ptsopened 1.72.0No 47% ▲ +1.3 ptsopened 2.05
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.75 ▼ -1.3 | 2.0 ▲ +1.3 | 30m |
| Betfair | 1.73 · +0.9 | 2.1 · -0.9 | 30m |
| BetVictor | 1.73 · -0.4 | 2.0 · +0.4 | 30m |
| Unibet | 1.7 · +0.0 | 1.98 · +0.0 | 30m |
| WilliamHill | 1.7 · +0.0 | 2.05 · +0.0 | 30m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 120 snapshots · last 30m before kick-off · biggest step: over -1.7 pts at 3.0d
2.03Over 48% · -0.7 ptsopened 1.971.87Under 52% · +0.7 ptsopened 1.87
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.03 · -0.7 | 1.87 · +0.7 | 30m |
| bet365 | 1.95 · +0.0 | 1.85 · +0.0 | 30m |
| Betfair | 2.0 · +0.0 | 1.8 · +0.0 | 30m |
| BetVictor | 1.92 ▼ -1.2 | 1.76 ▲ +1.2 | 30m |
| Unibet | 1.9 · +0.0 | 1.78 · +0.0 | 30m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.5h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.3Home 41% P 41%3.3Draw 29% P 29%3.1Away 30% P 30%
Double Chance
1.36Nacional or Draw 35%1.33Nacional or Estrela Amadora 35%1.57Draw or Estrela Amadora 30%
Draw No Bet
1.611 58%2.22 42%
Both Teams To Score
1.75Yes 53%2.0No 47%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.95Over 49% P 48%1.85Under 51% P 52%
Total Corners
9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 30–32.5% · 701 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 41% | 41% | 41% | -0.1 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 26% | -1.9 |
| Away | 30% | 31% | 33% | +2.1 |
In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 52%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 49% | 50% | +1.3 |
Carlos André Fernandes Macedo
- Career
- 43 matches · 5 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.6 (4.3 yellow · 0.21 red)
- Fouls / match
- 27.9 · 6.1 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.4
- Cards to home side
- 50%
Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 42 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.4 | 5.66 | -1.57 | 6 |
| Fouls / match | 27.9 | 27.9 | +0.04 | |
| Fouls per card | 6.5 | 4.9 | +1.76 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.38 | 0.37 | +0.15 | 48 |
| Time added | 6.3 | 7.7 | -1.51 | 6 |
- First card
- 37' on average
- Card timing
- 14% in first 30' · 39% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 50% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.2
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 68' | 7 |
| 2026-05-10 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 59' | 5 |
| 2026-04-26 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 46' | 6 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 47' | 6 |
| 2026-03-15 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 58' | 5 |
| 2026-02-14 · Estrela Amadora | 5 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 24' | 11 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 23' | 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 51' | 3 |
| 2025-12-28 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 36' | 4 |
| 2025-12-14 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 18' | 3 |