Rating 7.25 (89th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (36% of team goals) · 99% of minutes
Liga Portugal · Matchweek 3
Momentum
– CFEASCB –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
Waiting for pressure data…
Events
- No events yet.
Stats
Loading statistics…
Season context
| Estrela Amadora | at home | Stat | league | away | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.7 #11 | – | Ball possession | 50.1 | – | 61.4 #2 |
| 12.7 #8 | – | Shots total | 12.2 | – | 13.4 #6 |
| 4.8 #5 | – | Shots on target | 4.1 | – | 5.0 #4 |
| 3.8 #9 | – | Corners | 4.4 | – | 3.8 #10 |
| 11.5 #14 | – | Fouls | 12.7 | – | 13.8 #5 |
| 0.8 #12 | – | Offsides | 1.2 | – | 3.0 #1 |
| 18.8 #2 | – | Tackles | 15.9 | – | 13.8 #17 |
| 87.7 #10 | – | Attacks | 92.9 | – | 124.0 #2 |
| 34.3 #12 | – | Dangerous attacks | 40.6 | – | 53.6 #3 |
| 377.5 #13 | – | Passes | 430.4 | – | 602.4 #1 |
| 2.5 #5 | – | Yellowcards | 2.1 | – | 1.8 #13 |
| 0.0 #6 | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1.8 #2 | – | Assists | 1.0 | – | 1.2 #5 |
| – #1 | – | Btts | 48.9 | – | – #6 |
| – #17 | – | Cleansheet | 28.7 | – | – #6 |
| – #1 | – | Draw | 26.3 | – | – #8 |
| 1.5 #6 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.4 #7 |
| 0.8 #2 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.1 | – | 0.0 #12 |
| – #13 | – | Failed to score | 28.1 | – | – #13 |
| 2.3 #4 | 2.0 | Goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 #6 |
| 2.0 #4 | 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 #12 |
| 0.2 #7 | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #5 |
| 7.8 #11 | – | Interceptions | 8.8 | – | 9.2 #7 |
| – #14 | – | Lost | 36.7 | – | – #13 |
| 0.2 #5 | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | – |
| 6.8 #6 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.9 #4 |
| 2.5 #10 | – | Shots blocked | 2.9 | – | 3.6 #5 |
| 9.0 #4 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.7 | – | 8.6 #8 |
| 5.3 #5 | – | Shots off target | 5.2 | – | 4.8 #13 |
| 3.7 #15 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.4 | – | 4.8 #6 |
| – #8 | – | Win | 37.0 | – | – #5 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 50 of 306
- Goals / match
- 2.74 (home 1.32 · away 1.42)
- Home / draw / away
- 40% · 26% · 34%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 48% · 55%
- Cards / match
- 4.26 (reds 0.1)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Estrela Amadora · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 7.46 (97th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (36% of team goals) · 96% of minutes
Rating 6.79 (52th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (14% of team goals) · 100% of minutes
Sporting Braga · 2026/2027 · Liga Portugal
Rating 7.29 (94th pct) · G+A 0 + 2 (29% of team goals) · 86% of minutes
Rating 7.03 (64th pct) · G+A 3 + 1 (57% of team goals) · 79% of minutes
Rating 6.95 · G+A 0 + 1 (14% of team goals) · 58% of minutes
Absences
Sporting Braga
- injury Sikou Niakaté defender · Achilles tendon rupture · 23 missed
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 3
Venue
- Stadium
- Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
- Capacity
- 7,705
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 1,681
Teams
- Coaches
- Samuel de Azevedo Correia · Carlos Vicens
- Position
- 9 · 7
- Formation
- 4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3
Referee
Iancu Ioan Vasilica
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 20.2° (feels 19.9°)
- Wind
- 7.7
- Humidity
- 64%
Where to watch · 49
Angola
Sport TV Africa · Z Sports 1 · ZAP
Austria
Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Brazil
Disney+ Premium Brazil
Canada
beIN Sports Canada · beIN SPORTS CONNECT · beIN SPORTS en Español · Fanatiz · fuboTV Canada
Cape Verde
Sport TV Africa · ZAP
Costa Rica
Claro Sports
Denmark
Bold+
El Salvador
Claro Sports
France
Bein Sports 3 · beIN SPORTS CONNECT · myCANAL
Germany
Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece
Cosmote Sport 9
Guatemala
Claro Sports
Honduras
Claro Sports- International OneFootball
Liechtenstein
Blue Sport
Mexico
Claro Sports
Nicaragua
Claro Sports
Norway
VG+
Panama
Claro Sports
Poland
Canal+ · Eleven Sports 1
Portugal
Sport TV Multiscreen · Sport TV1 · TVI · TVi
Russia
Match TV · Match! Football 3 · matchtv.ru · Sportbox.ru
Sweden
TV4 Play · TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland
Blue Sport · Sportdigital FUSSBALL · Sunrise TV
Ukraine
Megogo · MEGOGO Football 6
United States
beIN SPORTS CONNECT · beIN SPORTS en Español · beIN Sports USA · fuboTV
2026/2027
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica |
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Arouca |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WLWDL |
| 6 |  Estrela Amadora |
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 7 |  Sporting Braga |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 8 |  Academico Viseu |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | LDLWW |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | WWDLL |
| 10 |  Marítimo |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | WDLLL |
| 11 |  Moreirense |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | LWLLW |
| 12 |  Alverca |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 | DLDLW |
| 13 |  Famalicão |
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LLDDD |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 15 |  Nacional |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | WLLLL |
| 16 |  Rio Ave |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 17 |  Estoril |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Casa Pia |
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Benfica |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | WWWWW |
| 5 | Arouca |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Gil Vicente |
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 9 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 10 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | LWLLW |
| 11 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Nacional |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 13 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Alverca |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | DLDLW |
| 15 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 16 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Rio Ave |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LWLLD |
| 18 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Porto |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Santa Clara |
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Sporting CP |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | WWWWD |
| 5 | Estrela Amadora |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | DWDWD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu |
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Sporting Braga |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Arouca |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | WLWDL |
| 9 | Alverca |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | DLDLW |
| 10 | Marítimo |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | WDLLL |
| 11 | Rio Ave |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Moreirense |
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Famalicão |
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LLDDD |
| 14 | Gil Vicente |
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | WWDLL |
| 15 | Nacional |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia |
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | LLLDL |
| 17 | Vitória Guimarães |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril |
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLLDL |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Estrela Amadora
DDDWD 1W 4D 0L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 10 · xG 5.99–8.28 · xPts 5.63
- D
H
Famalicão
2–2
xG 1.14–1.54
PRT PL
- W
A
Nacional
3–2
xG 2.0–0.65
PRT PL
- D
A
Alverca
2–2
xG 1.29–1.4
PRT PL
- D
H
Sporting CP
2–2
xG 1.01–2.52
PRT PL
- D
A
Sporting Braga
2–2
xG 0.55–2.17
PRT PL
DDDWD 1W 4D 0L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 11 GA 10 · xG 5.99–8.28 · xPts 5.63
- D
H
Famalicão
2–2
xG 1.14–1.54
PRT PL
- W
A
Nacional
3–2
xG 2.0–0.65
PRT PL
- D
A
Alverca
2–2
xG 1.29–1.4
PRT PL
- D
H
Sporting CP
2–2
xG 1.01–2.52
PRT PL
- D
A
Sporting Braga
2–2
xG 0.55–2.17
PRT PL
Sporting Braga
DWDWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 5 GA 1 · xG 6.51–2.71 · xPts 7.54
- W
A
Alverca
2–1
xG 2.11–1.17
PRT PL
- W
H
Vitória Guimarães
1–0
xG 0.77–0.19
PRT PL
- D
A
Austria Wien
0–0
xG 0.45–0.75
UEFA ECL - W
H
Austria Wien
2–0
xG 3.18–0.59
UEFA ECL
- D
A
Dinamo Minsk
0–0
UEFA ECL
DWWWDDWDWW 6W 4D 0L · 22 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 15 GA 5 · xG 9.8–3.5 · xPts 12.06
- W
A
Alverca
2–1
xG 2.11–1.17
PRT PL
- W
H
Vitória Guimarães
1–0
xG 0.77–0.19
PRT PL
- D
A
Austria Wien
0–0
xG 0.45–0.75
UEFA ECL
- W
H
Austria Wien
2–0
xG 3.18–0.59
UEFA ECL
- D
A
Dinamo Minsk
0–0
UEFA ECL
- D
A
Moreirense
2–2
xG 1.12–0.24
PRT PL
- W
H
Dinamo Minsk
1–0
UEFA ECL
- W
H
Železničar Pančevo
4–0
UEFA ECL - W
A
Železničar Pančevo
1–0
UEFA ECL
- D
H
Estrela Amadora
2–2
xG 2.17–0.55
PRT PL
KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·
Match result
19.6%Estrela Amadora P 15%24.5%Draw P 24%55.8%Sporting Braga P 61%
Over / under 2.5
47.8%Over 2.5 P 47%52.2%Under 2.5 P 53%
Both teams to score
48.5%Yes51.5%No
Expected
- Estrela Amadora goals
- 0.9 (0–2)
- Sporting Braga goals
- 1.69 (0–3)
- Corners
- 6.8 (3–10)
- Cards
- 4.87 (2–8)
Earlier: day before — 19.6% / 24.5% / 55.8%
Provider model (SportMonks)
Match result
22.5%Estrela Amadora25.7%Draw51.8%Sporting Braga
Over / under 2.5
45.4%Over 2.554.6%Under 2.5
Both teams to score
47.5%Yes52.5%No
Scored
| Market | Observed | Log loss | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2 | home | 1.628 | 1.018 |
| btts | yes | 0.724 | 0.531 |
| ou_2_5 | over | 0.739 | 0.546 |
Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.
All meetings · 15 matches since 2005
Goals 16–28 · 2.93 per match · BTTS 67% · over 2.5 60%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 13–23 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 70%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 8–8 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 60%
Recent meetings
- W Estrela Amadora 2–1 Sporting Braga PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Sporting Braga 2–2 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Estrela Amadora 3–3 Sporting Braga PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Estrela Amadora 0–1 Sporting Braga PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Sporting Braga 1–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Sporting Braga 3–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Estrela Amadora 2–4 Sporting Braga PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Estrela Amadora 2–2 Sporting Braga neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Sporting Braga 5–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Estrela Amadora 1–1 Sporting Braga neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Estrela Amadora all · 6 | Estrela Amadora at home · 3 | Sporting Braga all · 5 | Sporting Braga away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 5 | – |
| Points per game | 1.67 | – | 2.00 | – |
| W / D / L | 2 / 4 / 0 | – | 3 / 1 / 1 | – |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | – | 1.40 | – |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | – | 1.00 | – |
| Clean sheets | 0% | – | 40% | – |
| Failed to score | 0% | – | 0% | – |
| Both teams scored | 100% | – | 60% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | – | 60% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.47 | – | 1.36 | – |
| xG against / match | 1.35 | – | 0.61 | – |
| xG difference | 0.12 | – | 0.76 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.86 | – | 0.04 | – |
| xPts / match | 1.45 | – | 1.90 | – |
| Points vs xPts | 0.22 | – | 0.10 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 33% | – | 80% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.00 | – | 1.75 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 2.00 | – | 3.00 | – |
| Came back from behind | 100% | – | 50% | – |
| Leads held | 40% | – | 60% | – |
| Minutes leading | 20% | – | 26% | – |
| Minutes level | 46% | – | 62% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 34% | – | 13% | – |
| First goal (min) | 48 | – | 45 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 26 | – | 27 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 79% | – | 71% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 67% | – | 40% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.33 | – | 0.40 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.33 | – | 0.20 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | – | 61% | – |
| Shots | 12.7 | – | 13.4 | – |
| On target | 5.0 | – | 5.0 | – |
| Shot conversion | 18% | – | 10% | – |
| Shots inside box | 71% | – | 63% | – |
| Big chances created | 2.0 | – | 2.4 | – |
| Corners | 3.8 | – | 3.8 | – |
| xG from set plays | 23% | – | 23% | – |
| Goals from headers | 21% | – | 0% | – |
| Pressure index | 12.3 | – | 16.5 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 47.7 | – | 64.6 | – |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | – | 85% | – |
| Fouls | 11.3 | – | 13.2 | – |
| Cards | 2.50 | – | 1.80 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Estrela Amadora
0–15'03
16–30'10
31–45'21
46–60'44
61–75'52
76–90'22
Sporting Braga
0–15'21
16–30'01
31–45'01
46–60'21
61–75'10
76–90'21
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Estrela Amadora · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195
Game state
When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416
Situations
At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296
Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12
Sporting Braga · 11 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.33) · stands out: when level +0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.3311
Early press (0-15, level)+0.4011
Late push (76+, level)+0.085
Game state
When ahead+0.179
When level+0.4311
When behind+0.202
10 min after conceding+0.093
10 min after scoring+0.239
Situations
At home+0.335
Away+0.346
4+ days rest+0.3310
Opposition
v bottom-tier opponents+0.393
As favourite+0.3311
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.3011
Conceded when ahead-0.349
Conceded late (76+)-0.3410
Congested vs rested +0.09 · Ahead vs level -0.25 · Behind vs level -0.23
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 67% | 1.5 | 2.25 | 2.0 | 1.39 | 1.51 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 33% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.64 | 1.03 |
Sporting Braga
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · clean sheets 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-3 | 4 80% | 1.75 | 1.5 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 0.71 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 1 20% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.77 | 0.19 |
| Metric | Estrela Amadora all · 10 | Estrela Amadora at home · 10 | Sporting Braga all · 10 | Sporting Braga away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | 2.10 | 1.30 |
| W / D / L | 2 / 6 / 2 | 3 / 4 / 3 | 6 / 3 / 1 | 3 / 4 / 3 |
| Goals for / match | 1.90 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Goals against / match | 1.90 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | 70% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.35 | 1.13 | 1.49 | 0.83 |
| xG against / match | 1.64 | 1.56 | 0.62 | 1.39 |
| xG difference | -0.29 | -0.43 | 0.87 | -0.56 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.55 | 0.27 | -0.21 | 0.42 |
| xPts / match | 1.20 | 1.06 | 1.89 | 1.09 |
| Points vs xPts | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 40% | 20% | 70% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 0.75 | 3.00 | 2.29 | 1.40 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.60 | 0.86 | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Came back from behind | 75% | 57% | 50% | 40% |
| Leads held | 29% | 60% | 75% | 43% |
| Minutes leading | 20% | 17% | 32% | 24% |
| Minutes level | 52% | 42% | 61% | 61% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 40% | 6% | 15% |
| First goal (min) | 43 | 54 | 40 | 40 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 26 | 21 | 27 | 36 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 68% | 71% | 57% | 64% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 58% | 50% | 40% | 58% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 43% | 45% | 57% | 55% |
| Shots | 10.7 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.6 |
| Shot conversion | 18% | 12% | 12% | 13% |
| Shots inside box | 71% | 60% | 66% | 53% |
| Big chances created | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Corners | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 31% | 35% | 33% |
| Goals from headers | 21% | 21% | 0% | 30% |
| Pressure index | 9.5 | 9.4 | 16.8 | 11.5 |
| Dominant minutes | 39.2 | 41.8 | 63.8 | 49.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 80% | 85% | 83% |
| Fouls | 12.6 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.70 | 1.60 | 2.90 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Estrela Amadora
0–15'24
16–30'11
31–45'33
46–60'44
61–75'53
76–90'44
Sporting Braga
0–15'21
16–30'21
31–45'21
46–60'21
61–75'20
76–90'41
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 1.68 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.64 | 1.03 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.55 | 2.17 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.29 | 2.07 |
Sporting Braga
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · clean sheets 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-3 | 4 40% | 1.75 | 1.5 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 0.71 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 30% | 2.33 | 1.67 | 0.0 | – | – |
| 3-4-2-1 | 3 30% | 2.33 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.47 | 0.51 |
| Metric | Estrela Amadora all · 35 | Estrela Amadora at home · 17 | Sporting Braga all · 54 | Sporting Braga away · 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 17 | 54 | 28 |
| Points per game | 1.06 | 1.29 | 1.89 | 1.61 |
| W / D / L | 8 / 13 / 14 | 5 / 7 / 5 | 29 / 15 / 10 | 12 / 9 / 7 |
| Goals for / match | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.70 | 1.43 |
| Goals against / match | 1.77 | 1.41 | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 29% | 46% | 39% |
| Failed to score | 34% | 29% | 11% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 53% | 48% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 65% | 52% | 50% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.52 | 1.43 |
| xG against / match | 1.63 | 1.52 | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| xG difference | -0.44 | -0.28 | 0.51 | 0.24 |
| Finishing vs xG | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| xPts / match | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.68 | 1.52 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.07 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 31% | 29% | 70% | 57% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.45 | 2.40 | 2.29 | 2.06 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Came back from behind | 44% | 54% | 47% | 42% |
| Leads held | 47% | 62% | 67% | 63% |
| Minutes leading | 18% | 20% | 37% | 30% |
| Minutes level | 49% | 46% | 50% | 54% |
| Minutes trailing | 33% | 34% | 13% | 16% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 44 | 34 | 37 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 30 | 26 | 38 | 37 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 57% | 56% | 50% | 55% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 60% | 62% | 52% | 48% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 48% | 59% | 58% |
| Shots | 11.1 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 11.1 |
| On target | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 12% | 16% | 13% |
| Shots inside box | 59% | 58% | 69% | 69% |
| Big chances created | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| xG from set plays | 36% | 32% | 42% | 41% |
| Goals from headers | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% |
| Pressure index | 9.7 | 11.1 | 17.7 | 18.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 39.9 | 43.9 | 60.2 | 58.9 |
| Pass accuracy | 80% | 81% | 86% | 85% |
| Fouls | 13.9 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 12.5 |
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.71 | 2.37 | 2.64 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Estrela Amadora
0–15'512
16–30'75
31–45'98
46–60'816
61–75'1214
76–90'87
Sporting Braga
0–15'154
16–30'189
31–45'1311
46–60'137
61–75'1310
76–90'209
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Estrela Amadora · 35 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: against ten men +0.42
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1035
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1835
Late push (76+, level)-0.0715
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0813
Game state
When ahead+0.0017
When level-0.1935
When behind-0.0125
10 min after conceding-0.2828
10 min after scoring+0.2123
Situations
With ten men-0.204
Against ten men+0.424
At home-0.1017
Away-0.1018
4+ days rest-0.1035
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.299
v mid-tier opponents-0.257
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0411
As favourite+0.352
Evenly matched+0.1012
As underdog-0.2421
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2235
Conceded when ahead+0.1317
Conceded late (76+)+0.0330
Ahead vs level +0.19 · Behind vs level +0.18
Sporting Braga · 54 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.30) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.50
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.3054
Early press (0-15, level)+0.2454
Late push (76+, level)+0.1325
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.5013
Game state
When ahead+0.1143
When level+0.4354
When behind+0.3019
10 min after conceding+0.1229
10 min after scoring+0.5048
Situations
With ten men+0.356
Against ten men+0.395
At home+0.1726
Away+0.4228
3 days rest or fewer+0.068
4+ days rest+0.3446
Opposition
v top-tier opponents+0.1210
v mid-tier opponents+0.269
v bottom-tier opponents+0.4815
As favourite+0.3839
Evenly matched+0.087
As underdog+0.158
Conceded
Pressure conceded-0.1654
Conceded when ahead-0.1443
Conceded late (76+)-0.2149
Congested vs rested -0.28 · Ahead vs level -0.32 · Behind vs level -0.13
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 40% | 0.93 | 1.5 | 2.21 | 1.16 | 1.92 |
| 3-4-3 | 10 29% | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.28 | 1.78 |
| 4-3-3 | 6 17% | 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.33 | 1.48 | 0.94 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 2 6% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.78 | 1.49 |
Sporting Braga
Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · clean sheets 1
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 27 50% | 1.7 | 1.74 | 1.0 | 1.47 | 1.1 |
| 3-4-3 | 14 26% | 2.29 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.86 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 7 13% | 1.14 | 1.0 | 1.14 | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| 4-3-3 | 5 9% | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.27 | 0.47 |
| 4-3-2-1 | 1 2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.68 | 1.2 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: away +2.2 pts at 3.7d
6.4Home 15% ▼ -8.7 ptsopened 4.014.06Draw 24% ▼ -3.7 ptsopened 3.471.57Away 61% ▲ +12.3 ptsopened 1.94
Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 6.4 ▼ -8.7 | 4.06 ▼ -3.7 | 1.57 ▲ +12.3 | 5m |
| bet365 | 6.25 ▼ -4.6 | 3.9 ▼ -1.1 | 1.55 ▲ +5.7 | 5m |
| Betfair | 6.5 ▼ -9.5 | 3.9 ▼ -2.5 | 1.55 ▲ +12.0 | 5m |
| BetVictor | 6.0 ▼ -9.1 | 3.8 ▼ -3.6 | 1.5 ▲ +12.8 | 5m |
| Coral | 5.75 ▼ -4.9 | 3.9 ▼ -1.9 | 1.6 ▲ +6.8 | 5m |
| Ladbrokes | 5.75 ▼ -5.1 | 3.9 ▼ -2.2 | 1.57 ▲ +7.3 | 5m |
| Unibet | 5.5 ▼ -3.0 | 3.75 ▼ -1.5 | 1.62 ▲ +4.4 | 5m |
| WilliamHill | 6.0 ▼ -7.4 | 3.8 ▼ -3.2 | 1.55 ▲ +10.6 | 5m |
BetVictor (Pinnacle absent) · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: yes -1.4 pts at 5.2h
2.0Yes 46% ▼ -5.4 ptsopened 1.81.7No 54% ▲ +5.4 ptsopened 1.9
Yes No consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetVictor | 2.0 ▼ -5.4 | 1.7 ▲ +5.4 | 5m |
| bet365 | 2.0 ▼ -1.3 | 1.75 ▲ +1.3 | 5m |
| Betfair | 2.0 ▼ -3.7 | 1.75 ▲ +3.7 | 5m |
| Unibet | 1.82 · +0.0 | 1.85 · +0.0 | 5m |
| WilliamHill | 2.0 ▼ -4.4 | 1.75 ▲ +4.4 | 5m |
Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: over -4.9 pts at 5.2h
2.08Over 47% · +0.1 ptsopened 2.051.83Under 53% · -0.0 ptsopened 1.8
Over Under consensus of 5 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.08 · +0.1 | 1.83 · -0.0 | 5m |
| bet365 | 2.0 · +0.0 | 1.8 · +0.0 | 5m |
| Betfair | 1.95 ▼ -1.6 | 1.8 ▲ +1.6 | 5m |
| BetVictor | 1.93 · +0.3 | 1.75 · -0.3 | 5m |
| Unibet | 1.84 ▲ +1.9 | 1.83 ▼ -1.9 | 5m |
Latest prices
bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
6.25Home 15% P 15%3.9Draw 24% P 24%1.55Away 61% P 61%
Double Chance
2.37Estrela Amadora or Draw 20%1.22Estrela Amadora or Braga 38%1.11Draw or Braga 42%
Draw No Bet
5.01 19%1.162 81%
Both Teams To Score
2.0Yes 47%1.75No 53%
Goals Over/Under
2.52.0Over 47% P 47%1.8Under 53% P 53%
Total Corners
6.0Under 6 15%2.66 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 32%6.012 - 14 15%15.0Over 14 6%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 15–17.5% · away 60–62.5% · 275 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 15% | 16% | 15% | -1.7 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 20% | -3.0 |
| Away | 61% | 61% | 66% | +4.7 |
In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 61%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 46% | 45% | -1.2 |
Iancu Ioan Vasilica
- Career
- 60 matches · 6 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.48 (4.25 yellow · 0.13 red)
- Fouls / match
- 29.6 · 6.6 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.27
- Cards to home side
- 48%
Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 39 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.08 | 5.66 | -1.98 | 0 |
| Fouls / match | 27.6 | 27.9 | -0.14 | |
| Fouls per card | 6.9 | 4.9 | +2.30 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.2 | 0.37 | -1.09 | 12 |
| Time added | 8.2 | 7.7 | +0.71 | 79 |
- First card
- 37' on average
- Card timing
- 17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 48% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.23
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 26' | 6 |
| 2026-05-10 | 5 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 45' | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 32' | 7 |
| 2026-04-11 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 31' | 7 |
| 2026-02-27 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 90' | 14 |
| 2026-02-22 | – | – | 21 | – | – | 11 |
| 2026-01-25 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 52' | 6 |
| 2026-01-04 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 90' | 5 |
| 2025-12-21 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 2' | 12 |
| 2025-12-13 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 12' | 5 |