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Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round Aggregate 1–2 · Rijeka went through · After Full Time

Momentum

IlvesRijeka
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
3rd Qualifying Round
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
Tammelan Stadion
Capacity
5,040
Surface
artificial turf

Teams

Coaches
C. Speranza · Matjaž Kek
Position
2 · 1
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Genc Nuza

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
14.9° (feels 14.3°)
Wind
1.5
Humidity
74%

Where to watch · 3

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Arena Cloud · Arena Sport Premium 2 · Moja TV

No table for this competition stage.

Ilves

DWLWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4

  • L A Rijeka 0–1 UEFA ECL
  • W H Stjarnan 2–1 won on pens None–None UEFA ECL
  • L A Stjarnan 0–1 UEFA ECL
  • W H Differdange 03 3–1 UEFA ECL
  • D A Differdange 03 0–0 UEFA ECL

Rijeka

WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 0

  • W H Ilves 1–0 UEFA ECL
  • W A Derry City 1–0 UEFA ECL
  • W H Derry City 1–0 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Ilves 01 draws1 Rijeka

Goals 1–2 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Ilves 01 draws1 Rijeka

Goals 1–2 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Ilves 01 draws1 Rijeka

Goals 1–2 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • D Ilves 1–1 Rijeka UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 2/2
  • L Rijeka 1–0 Ilves UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 1/2
MetricIlves all · 6Ilves at home · 3Rijeka all · 6Rijeka away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game1.331.67
W / D / L2 / 2 / 23 / 1 / 2
Goals for / match1.000.83
Goals against / match0.831.17
Clean sheets17%50%
Failed to score50%17%
Both teams scored50%33%
Over 2.533%17%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.84
xG against / match1.94
xG difference-1.10
Finishing vs xG-0.34
xPts / match0.66
Points vs xPts-0.66
Game state
Scored first33%67%
PPG when scoring first2.002.25
PPG when conceding first1.000.50
Came back from behind33%33%
Leads held67%75%
Minutes leading16%37%
Minutes level68%42%
Minutes trailing16%21%
First goal (min)5831
First goal conceded (min)6434
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half100%40%
Goals conceded in 2nd half50%71%
Late goals for (76'+)0.170.00
Late goals against0.330.17
Style
Possession50%56%
Shots9.213.2
On target2.85.2
Shot conversion13%8%
Shots inside box72%
Big chances created1.0
Corners3.86.0
xG from set plays11%
Goals from headers0%
Pressure index9.210.6
Dominant minutes48.048.5
Pass accuracy72%
Fouls9.312.2
Cards2.002.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ilves

0–15'00
16–30'01
31–45'01
46–60'20
61–75'31
76–90'01

Rijeka

0–15'20
16–30'12
31–45'00
46–60'13
61–75'11
76–90'01

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ilves · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.14) · stands out: when behind -0.25

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.146
Early press (0-15, level)+0.096
Late push (76+, level)-0.203
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.612

Game state

When ahead-0.203
When level-0.096
When behind-0.253
10 min after conceding-0.134
10 min after scoring-0.213

Situations

At home-0.033
Away-0.233
4+ days rest-0.146

Opposition

As favourite+0.022
Evenly matched-0.212
As underdog-0.212

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.066
Conceded when ahead-0.223
Conceded late (76+)-0.226

Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level -0.16

Rijeka · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.026
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.372

Game state

When ahead-0.104
When level+0.176
When behind-0.243
10 min after conceding-0.423
10 min after scoring-0.185

Situations

At home+0.113
Away-0.143
4+ days rest-0.026

Opposition

As favourite+0.104

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.006
Conceded when ahead-0.234
Conceded late (76+)-0.236

Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level -0.41

Ilves

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 50%0.330.331.0
3-4-2-12 33%3.02.51.0
4-2-3-11 17%1.00.00.0

Rijeka

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 83%1.40.81.40.841.94
4-3-31 17%3.01.00.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.0Home 23% P 21%3.3Draw 28% P 27%1.85Away 49% P 52%

Double Chance

1.83FC Ilves or Draw 26%1.3FC Ilves or HNK Rijeka 36%1.22Draw or HNK Rijeka 38%

Draw No Bet

3.01 31%1.362 69%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 49%1.8No 51%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.0Over 47% P 46%1.8Under 53% P 54%

Total Corners

7.0Under 6 13%2.756 - 8 33%2.759 - 11 33%5.512 - 14 16%15.0Over 14 6%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 50–52.5% · 274 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home21%22%15%-7.0
Draw27%27%27%+0.4
Away52%51%58%+6.6

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 51%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.546%46%45%-1.2

Genc Nuza

Career
21 matches · 9 seasons
Cards / match
4.67 (4.48 yellow · 0.1 red)
Fouls / match
26.7 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.38
Cards to home side
43%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 17 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.944.92-0.1249
Fouls / match26.023.8+0.95
Fouls per card5.54.8+0.70 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.290.29-0.0643
Time added6.36.5-0.4428
First card
33' on average
Card timing
20% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
Cards to home side
40% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-07-30 20 310 80'2
2025-11-27 40 360 13'7
2025-10-02 20 180 39'7
2025-08-21 30 180 8'10