Momentum
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Ilves | at home | Stat | league | away | Rijeka |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.3 #69 | – | Ball possession | 49.1 | – | 55.7 #34 |
| 5.7 #102 | – | Shots total | 8.8 | – | 9.0 #65 |
| 2.2 #107 | – | Shots on target | 3.5 | – | 4.5 #42 |
| 3.8 #102 | – | Corners | 4.8 | – | 6.0 #33 |
| 9.3 #139 | – | Fouls | 13.1 | – | 12.2 #91 |
| 1.7 #66 | – | Offsides | 1.9 | – | 2.0 #44 |
| – | – | Tackles | 10.8 | – | 5.0 #51 |
| 95.2 #106 | – | Attacks | 107.8 | – | 120.8 #38 |
| 57.5 #83 | – | Dangerous attacks | 60.3 | – | 66.3 #54 |
| – | – | Passes | 311.6 | – | 111.2 #54 |
| 2.5 #40 | – | Yellowcards | 2.2 | – | 2.0 #64 |
| 0.2 #25 | – | Redcards | 0.4 | – | – |
| 0.8 #73 | – | Assists | 1.1 | – | 0.7 #83 |
| – #60 | – | Btts | 53.6 | – | – #110 |
| – #76 | – | Cleansheet | 23.4 | – | – #11 |
| – #50 | – | Draw | 25.5 | – | – #82 |
| – | – | Expected goals | 1.2 | – | 0.3 #52 |
| – | – | Expected goals difference | 0.4 | – | 0.5 #28 |
| – #18 | – | Failed to score | 30.1 | – | – #85 |
| 1.0 #80 | 2.0 | Goals | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 #108 |
| 0.8 #126 | 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 #105 |
| – | – | Interceptions | 6.2 | – | 3.3 #50 |
| – #92 | – | Lost | 44.3 | – | – #92 |
| 0.2 #34 | – | Penalties scored | 0.3 | – | – |
| 6.4 #80 | – | Rating | 6.5 | – | 6.5 #55 |
| 1.3 #120 | – | Shots blocked | 2.5 | – | 3.5 #29 |
| – #65 | – | Shots insidebox | 6.3 | – | 2.2 #51 |
| 4.3 #73 | – | Shots off target | 4.6 | – | 5.3 #54 |
| – #65 | – | Shots outsidebox | 3.7 | – | 0.8 #54 |
| – #73 | – | Win | 30.2 | – | – #19 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 153.
League this season · 2026/2027
- Played
- 258 of 366
- Goals / match
- 2.96 (home 1.68 · away 1.28)
- Home / draw / away
- 46% · 25% · 29%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 53% · 57%
- Cards / match
- 4.26 (reds 0.12)
Trends
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Lineups
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Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Ilves · 2026/2027 · Europa Conference League
Rijeka · 2026/2027 · Europa Conference League
Absences
Rijeka
- injury Domagoj Ivan Maric goalkeeper · Unknown Injury · 93 missed
- injury Téo Barišić defender · Cruciate Ligament Tear · 17 missed · until 2026-12-31
Commentary
- Waiting for commentary…
In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- 3rd Qualifying Round
- Leg
- 2/2
Venue
- Stadium
- Tammelan Stadion
- Capacity
- 5,040
- Surface
- artificial turf
Teams
- Coaches
- C. Speranza · Matjaž Kek
- Position
- 2 · 1
- Formation
- 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1
Referee
Genc Nuza
Weather
- Conditions
- overcast clouds
- Temperature
- 14.9° (feels 14.3°)
- Wind
- 1.5
- Humidity
- 74%
Where to watch · 3
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Arena Cloud · Arena Sport Premium 2 · Moja TV
No table for this competition stage.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Ilves
DWLWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4
- L
A
Rijeka
0–1
UEFA ECL - W
H
Stjarnan
2–1 won on pens None–None
UEFA ECL - L
A
Stjarnan
0–1
UEFA ECL - W
H
Differdange 03
3–1
UEFA ECL - D
A
Differdange 03
0–0
UEFA ECL
DWLWL 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 4
- L
A
Rijeka
0–1
UEFA ECL - W
H
Stjarnan
2–1 won on pens None–None
UEFA ECL - L
A
Stjarnan
0–1
UEFA ECL - W
H
Differdange 03
3–1
UEFA ECL - D
A
Differdange 03
0–0
UEFA ECL
Rijeka
WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 0
- W
H
Ilves
1–0
UEFA ECL - W
A
Derry City
1–0
UEFA ECL - W
H
Derry City
1–0
UEFA ECL
WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 3 GA 0
- W
H
Ilves
1–0
UEFA ECL - W
A
Derry City
1–0
UEFA ECL - W
H
Derry City
1–0
UEFA ECL
All meetings · 2 matches since 2026
Goals 1–2 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%
Last 10 · 2 matches
Goals 1–2 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%
Last 5 · 2 matches
Goals 1–2 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%
Recent meetings
- D Ilves 1–1 Rijeka UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 2/2
- L Rijeka 1–0 Ilves UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 1/2
| Metric | Ilves all · 6 | Ilves at home · 3 | Rijeka all · 6 | Rijeka away · 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 6 | – |
| Points per game | 1.33 | – | 1.67 | – |
| W / D / L | 2 / 2 / 2 | – | 3 / 1 / 2 | – |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | – | 0.83 | – |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | – | 1.17 | – |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 50% | – |
| Failed to score | 50% | – | 17% | – |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 33% | – |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | – | 17% | – |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | – | – | 0.84 | – |
| xG against / match | – | – | 1.94 | – |
| xG difference | – | – | -1.10 | – |
| Finishing vs xG | – | – | -0.34 | – |
| xPts / match | – | – | 0.66 | – |
| Points vs xPts | – | – | -0.66 | – |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 33% | – | 67% | – |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.00 | – | 2.25 | – |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | – | 0.50 | – |
| Came back from behind | 33% | – | 33% | – |
| Leads held | 67% | – | 75% | – |
| Minutes leading | 16% | – | 37% | – |
| Minutes level | 68% | – | 42% | – |
| Minutes trailing | 16% | – | 21% | – |
| First goal (min) | 58 | – | 31 | – |
| First goal conceded (min) | 64 | – | 34 | – |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 100% | – | 40% | – |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | – | 71% | – |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.17 | – | 0.00 | – |
| Late goals against | 0.33 | – | 0.17 | – |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 56% | – |
| Shots | 9.2 | – | 13.2 | – |
| On target | 2.8 | – | 5.2 | – |
| Shot conversion | 13% | – | 8% | – |
| Shots inside box | – | – | 72% | – |
| Big chances created | – | – | 1.0 | – |
| Corners | 3.8 | – | 6.0 | – |
| xG from set plays | – | – | 11% | – |
| Goals from headers | – | – | 0% | – |
| Pressure index | 9.2 | – | 10.6 | – |
| Dominant minutes | 48.0 | – | 48.5 | – |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 72% | – |
| Fouls | 9.3 | – | 12.2 | – |
| Cards | 2.00 | – | 2.00 | – |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Ilves
Rijeka
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Ilves · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.14) · stands out: when behind -0.25
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level -0.16
Rijeka · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.42
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level -0.41
Ilves
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 3 50% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 33% | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | – |
Rijeka
Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 5 83% | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.84 | 1.94 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 17% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | – | – |
| Metric | Ilves all · 10 | Ilves at home · 7 | Rijeka all · 10 | Rijeka away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.14 | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 3 / 4 | 4 / 3 / 0 | 5 / 2 / 3 | 3 / 4 / 3 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.86 | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Goals against / match | 1.90 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 14% | 40% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 60% | 14% | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 86% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% | 30% | 20% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 0.98 | 1.54 | 1.12 | 0.59 |
| xG against / match | 4.18 | 2.71 | 1.86 | 1.70 |
| xG difference | -3.20 | -1.17 | -0.74 | -1.12 |
| Finishing vs xG | 1.02 | 2.46 | 0.05 | -0.16 |
| xPts / match | 0.40 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.64 |
| Points vs xPts | 1.10 | 2.22 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 30% | 57% | 60% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.17 | 2.20 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Came back from behind | 20% | 100% | 40% | 25% |
| Leads held | 75% | 80% | 71% | 60% |
| Minutes leading | 15% | 26% | 31% | 25% |
| Minutes level | 61% | 70% | 42% | 48% |
| Minutes trailing | 24% | 3% | 27% | 26% |
| First goal (min) | 45 | 50 | 43 | 44 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 48 | 59 | 31 | 49 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 78% | 82% | 64% | 50% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | 67% | 64% | 67% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 47% | 48% | 54% | 49% |
| Shots | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 10.1 |
| On target | 2.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | 24% | 9% | 9% |
| Shots inside box | 62% | 60% | 59% | 56% |
| Big chances created | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| Corners | 3.1 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| xG from set plays | 20% | 22% | 22% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | 25% | 25% | 14% | 0% |
| Pressure index | 6.0 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 8.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 33.7 | 43.9 | 46.8 | 37.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 76% | 77% | 78% |
| Fouls | 8.6 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 13.0 |
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.43 | 2.40 | 2.90 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Ilves
Rijeka
Ilves
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.5 | 0.98 | 4.18 |
| 4-3-3 | 3 30% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 3-4-3 | 2 20% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | – | – |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | – |
Rijeka
Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 5 50% | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.84 | 1.94 |
| 4-1-3-2 | 2 20% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.45 | 1.72 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | – | – |
| 3-2-4-1 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.76 | 2.33 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| Metric | Ilves all · 6 | Ilves at home · 3 | Rijeka all · 16 | Rijeka away · 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 6 | – | 16 | 8 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | – | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| W / D / L | 2 / 2 / 2 | – | 7 / 5 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 2 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | – | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheets | 17% | – | 50% | 38% |
| Failed to score | 50% | – | 25% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | – | 38% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | – | 25% | 0% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | – | – | 0.99 | 0.62 |
| xG against / match | – | – | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| xG difference | – | – | -0.48 | -0.99 |
| Finishing vs xG | – | – | 0.01 | -0.12 |
| xPts / match | – | – | 1.06 | 0.69 |
| Points vs xPts | – | – | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 33% | – | 56% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 2.00 | – | 2.22 | 2.00 |
| PPG when conceding first | 1.00 | – | 0.80 | 0.33 |
| Came back from behind | 33% | – | 33% | 33% |
| Leads held | 67% | – | 70% | 50% |
| Minutes leading | 16% | – | 26% | 24% |
| Minutes level | 68% | – | 52% | 54% |
| Minutes trailing | 16% | – | 23% | 22% |
| First goal (min) | 58 | – | 47 | 46 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 64 | – | 34 | 49 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 100% | – | 69% | 40% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 50% | – | 62% | 67% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.17 | – | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Late goals against | 0.33 | – | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | – | 52% | 48% |
| Shots | 9.2 | – | 12.9 | 9.0 |
| On target | 2.8 | – | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| Shot conversion | 13% | – | 8% | 8% |
| Shots inside box | – | – | 57% | 57% |
| Big chances created | – | – | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Corners | 3.8 | – | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| xG from set plays | – | – | 22% | 19% |
| Goals from headers | – | – | 8% | 0% |
| Pressure index | 9.2 | – | 16.6 | 7.0 |
| Dominant minutes | 48.0 | – | 50.3 | 38.5 |
| Pass accuracy | – | – | 78% | 79% |
| Fouls | 9.3 | – | 13.5 | 14.1 |
| Cards | 2.00 | – | 2.44 | 3.00 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Ilves
Rijeka
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Ilves · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.14) · stands out: when behind -0.25
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level -0.16
Rijeka · 16 matches
Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.18) · stands out: at home +0.49
Tempo
Game state
Situations
Opposition
Conceded
Ahead vs level +0.07 · Behind vs level -0.14
Ilves
Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 5
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 3 50% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 3-4-2-1 | 2 33% | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 4-2-3-1 | 1 17% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | – |
Rijeka
Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 7 44% | 1.57 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| 4-1-3-2 | 2 12% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.45 | 1.72 |
| 3-2-4-1 | 1 6% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.76 | 2.33 |
| 3-4-1-2 | 1 6% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 6% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | – | – |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Both Teams To Score
Goals Over/Under
Total Corners
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 50–52.5% · 274 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 21% | 22% | 15% | -7.0 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 27% | +0.4 |
| Away | 52% | 51% | 58% | +6.6 |
In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 52% · over 2.5 51%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 45–47.5% · 2,885 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 45% | -1.2 |
Genc Nuza
- Career
- 21 matches · 9 seasons
- Cards / match
- 4.67 (4.48 yellow · 0.1 red)
- Fouls / match
- 26.7 · 5.2 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.38
- Cards to home side
- 43%
Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 17 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.94 | 4.92 | -0.12 | 49 |
| Fouls / match | 26.0 | 23.8 | +0.95 | |
| Fouls per card | 5.5 | 4.8 | +0.70 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.29 | 0.29 | -0.06 | 43 |
| Time added | 6.3 | 6.5 | -0.44 | 28 |
- First card
- 33' on average
- Card timing
- 20% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 40% (league 47%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.0
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 80' | 2 |
| 2025-11-27 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 13' | 7 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 39' | 7 |
| 2025-08-21 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 8' | 10 |
