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Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round Aggregate 5–3 · Ajax went through · After Full Time

Momentum

AjaxShelbourne
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
3rd Qualifying Round
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Capacity
55,885
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Míchel · John Russell
Position
2 · 1
Formation
4-1-4-1 · 5-4-1

Referee

Atilla Karaoğlan

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
17.3° (feels 16.8°)
Wind
0.9
Humidity
63%

Where to watch · 18

No table for this competition stage.

Ajax

DWDWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 11 GA 3 · xG 14.39–8.59 · xPts 9.92

  • W H Vojvodina 4–1 xG 4.17–0.25 UEFA ECL
  • W A Vojvodina 4–1 xG 1.71–0.82 UEFA ECL
  • D H FC Utrecht 1–1 won on pens None–None xG 4.92–4.87 NLD E
  • W H FC Groningen 2–0 xG 1.82–0.24 NLD E
  • D A SC Heerenveen 0–0 xG 1.77–2.41 NLD E

Shelbourne

WL 1W 0D 1L · 3 pts (1.5 ppg) · GF 6 GA 4

  • L A Nõmme Kalju 1–2 UEFA ECL
  • W H Nõmme Kalju 5–2 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Ajax 11 draws0 Shelbourne

Goals 5–3 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Ajax 11 draws0 Shelbourne

Goals 5–3 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Ajax 11 draws0 Shelbourne

Goals 5–3 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • D Shelbourne 2–2 Ajax UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 2/2
  • W Ajax 3–1 Shelbourne UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 1/2
MetricAjax all · 6Ajax at home · 3Shelbourne all · 4Shelbourne away · 2
Results
Matches6
Points per game2.67
W / D / L5 / 1 / 0
Goals for / match3.67
Goals against / match1.67
Clean sheets0%
Failed to score0%
Both teams scored100%
Over 2.5100%
Expected goals
xG for / match3.46
xG against / match0.97
xG difference2.49
Finishing vs xG0.21
xPts / match2.33
Points vs xPts0.34
Game state
Scored first67%
PPG when scoring first2.50
PPG when conceding first3.00
Came back from behind100%
Leads held83%
Minutes leading63%
Minutes level33%
Minutes trailing5%
First goal (min)21
First goal conceded (min)38
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half54%
Goals conceded in 2nd half40%
Late goals for (76'+)0.33
Late goals against0.50
Style
Possession66%
Shots24.2
On target10.3
Shot conversion15%
Shots inside box68%
Big chances created5.3
Corners9.2
xG from set plays18%
Goals from headers14%
Pressure index26.1
Dominant minutes67.7
Pass accuracy91%
Fouls9.0
Cards1.17

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ajax

0–15'30
16–30'23
31–45'53
46–60'80
61–75'21
76–90'23

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ajax · 12 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.65) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.90

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.6512
Early press (0-15, level)+0.9012
Late push (76+, level)+0.053

Game state

When ahead+0.6811
When level+0.8012
When behind-0.184
10 min after conceding-0.219
10 min after scoring+0.8112

Situations

At home+0.686
Away+0.626
3 days rest or fewer+0.544
4+ days rest+0.708

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.735
As favourite+0.7311

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.1912
Conceded when ahead-0.2911
Conceded late (76+)-0.399

Congested vs rested -0.17 · Ahead vs level -0.12 · Behind vs level -0.98

Shelbourne · 4 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.20) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.58

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.204
Early press (0-15, level)-0.374
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.583

Game state

When ahead-0.042
When level-0.214
When behind-0.283
10 min after conceding-0.264
10 min after scoring+0.054

Situations

At home+0.062
Away-0.412
4+ days rest-0.204

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.202
As favourite-0.212
As underdog-0.202

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.404
Conceded when ahead-0.232
Conceded late (76+)+0.123

Ahead vs level +0.17 · Behind vs level -0.06

Ajax

Current: unbeaten 2 · wins 2 · scoring 14 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-35 83%2.63.81.82.831.12
4-1-4-11 17%3.03.01.06.610.2

Shelbourne

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 3 · scoring 4 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-4-21 25%3.05.02.0
5-4-11 25%0.01.03.00.26.61
3-5-21 25%1.02.02.00.841.33
4-3-31 25%0.01.02.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.06Home 88% P 91%11.0Draw 8% P 7%26.0Away 4% P 2%

Double Chance

1.02Ajax or Shelbourne8.0Draw or Shelbourne

Draw No Bet

17.02

Both Teams To Score

3.0Yes 31%1.36No 69%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.28Over 73%3.5Under 27%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 34%3.612 - 14 25%6.5Over 14 14%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 90–95% · away 0–5% · 124 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home91%92%97%+5.1
Draw7%6%3%-2.6
Away2%3%0%-2.5

In those fixtures: 4.3 goals a game · BTTS 38% · over 2.5 82%

Atilla Karaoğlan

Career
16 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
5.13 (5.13 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 5.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.44
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 12 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.084.92+0.0457
Fouls / match26.423.8+1.13
Fouls per card5.24.8+0.40 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.420.29+0.7572
Time added5.36.5-1.518
First card
27' on average
Card timing
18% in first 30' · 33% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-07-22 30 250 56'6
2025-10-02 70 210 6'5
2025-08-07 30 270 65'6