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Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round Aggregate 2–1 · Rijeka went through · After Full Time

Momentum

RijekaIlves
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
3rd Qualifying Round
Leg
1/2

Venue

Stadium
Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Capacity
8,279
Surface
grass
Attendance
5,268

Teams

Coaches
Matjaž Kek · C. Speranza
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3

Referee

Ishmael Barbara

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
27.3° (feels 26.9°)
Wind
3.8
Humidity
37%

Where to watch · 5

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Arena Cloud · Arena Sport Premium 2 · Moja TV
  • Croatia MAX To Go · RTL

No table for this competition stage.

Rijeka

WW 2W 0D 0L · 6 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 2 GA 0

  • W A Derry City 1–0 UEFA ECL
  • W H Derry City 1–0 UEFA ECL

Ilves

DWLW 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 5 GA 3

  • W H Stjarnan 2–1 won on pens None–None UEFA ECL
  • L A Stjarnan 0–1 UEFA ECL
  • W H Differdange 03 3–1 UEFA ECL
  • D A Differdange 03 0–0 UEFA ECL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Rijeka 11 draws0 Ilves

Goals 2–1 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Rijeka 11 draws0 Ilves

Goals 2–1 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Rijeka 11 draws0 Ilves

Goals 2–1 · 1.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 0%

Recent meetings

  • D Ilves 1–1 Rijeka UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 2/2
  • W Rijeka 1–0 Ilves UEFA ECL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 1/2
MetricRijeka all · 6Rijeka at home · 3Ilves all · 6Ilves away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game1.671.33
W / D / L3 / 1 / 22 / 2 / 2
Goals for / match0.831.00
Goals against / match1.170.83
Clean sheets50%17%
Failed to score17%50%
Both teams scored33%50%
Over 2.517%33%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.84
xG against / match1.94
xG difference-1.10
Finishing vs xG-0.34
xPts / match0.66
Points vs xPts-0.66
Game state
Scored first67%33%
PPG when scoring first2.252.00
PPG when conceding first0.501.00
Came back from behind33%33%
Leads held75%67%
Minutes leading37%16%
Minutes level42%68%
Minutes trailing21%16%
First goal (min)3158
First goal conceded (min)3464
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half40%100%
Goals conceded in 2nd half71%50%
Late goals for (76'+)0.000.17
Late goals against0.170.33
Style
Possession56%50%
Shots13.29.2
On target5.22.8
Shot conversion8%13%
Shots inside box72%
Big chances created1.0
Corners6.03.8
xG from set plays11%
Goals from headers0%
Pressure index10.69.2
Dominant minutes48.548.0
Pass accuracy72%
Fouls12.29.3
Cards2.002.00

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Rijeka

0–15'20
16–30'12
31–45'00
46–60'13
61–75'11
76–90'01

Ilves

0–15'00
16–30'01
31–45'01
46–60'20
61–75'31
76–90'01

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Rijeka · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.026
Early press (0-15, level)-0.016
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.372

Game state

When ahead-0.104
When level+0.176
When behind-0.243
10 min after conceding-0.423
10 min after scoring-0.185

Situations

At home+0.113
Away-0.143
4+ days rest-0.026

Opposition

As favourite+0.104

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.006
Conceded when ahead-0.234
Conceded late (76+)-0.236

Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level -0.41

Ilves · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.14) · stands out: when behind -0.25

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.146
Early press (0-15, level)+0.096
Late push (76+, level)-0.203
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.612

Game state

When ahead-0.203
When level-0.096
When behind-0.253
10 min after conceding-0.134
10 min after scoring-0.213

Situations

At home-0.033
Away-0.233
4+ days rest-0.146

Opposition

As favourite+0.022
Evenly matched-0.212
As underdog-0.212

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.066
Conceded when ahead-0.223
Conceded late (76+)-0.226

Ahead vs level -0.10 · Behind vs level -0.16

Rijeka

Current: winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 83%1.40.81.40.841.94
4-3-31 17%3.01.00.0

Ilves

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 2 · scoring 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 50%0.330.331.0
3-4-2-12 33%3.02.51.0
4-2-3-11 17%1.00.00.0

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.27Home 71% P 76%4.5Draw 20% P 16%10.0Away 9% P 8%

Double Chance

1.03HNK Rijeka or Draw 45%1.12HNK Rijeka or FC Ilves 42%3.6Draw or FC Ilves 13%

Draw No Bet

1.061 88%8.02 12%

Both Teams To Score

2.37Yes 39%1.53No 61%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 55%2.0Under 47% P 45%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 75–77.5% · away 7.5–10% · 515 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home76%76%77%+0.9
Draw16%15%15%-0.5
Away8%9%8%-0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 49% · over 2.5 66%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 52.5–55% · 2,940 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%54%54%+0.8

Ishmael Barbara

Career
13 matches · 6 seasons
Cards / match
4.08 (3.85 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
27.3 · 6.2 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.46
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Europa Conference League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.914.92-1.318
Fouls / match25.923.8+0.90
Fouls per card7.14.8+2.55 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.460.29+1.0080
Time added6.86.5+0.1051
First card
30' on average
Card timing
27% in first 30' · 20% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-12-18 40 310 47'8
2025-10-02 21 230 26'7