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Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round Aggregate 4–2 · Anderlecht went through · After Full Time

Momentum

AnderlechtPAOK
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
3rd Qualifying Round
Leg
2/2

Venue

Stadium
Lotto Park, Brussels
Capacity
21,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
17,976

Teams

Coaches
Vítor Bruno Clara Santos Mota Fernandes · Alessio Lisci
Position
1 · 2
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Simone Sozza

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
25.5° (feels 25.3°)
Wind
3.7
Humidity
47%

Where to watch · 23

  • Belgium Proximus · RTL Club · RTL Play · VTM 2 · VTM GO
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Arena Cloud · Arena Premium 5 · Moja TV
  • Bulgaria Max Sport 3
  • Cyprus Open TV
  • Greece Open TV
  • Kosovo ARENA SPORT PREMIUM 1
  • Montenegro Arena Cloud · ARENA SPORT PREMIUM 1
  • North Macedonia Arena Cloud · ARENA SPORT PREMIUM 1
  • Portugal Sport TV Multiscreen
  • Serbia Arena Cloud · ARENA SPORT PREMIUM 1
  • Slovakia Arena Sport 1
  • United States ESPN Select · ESPN+ · Fubo.tv

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Juventus 1100 505 3 W
2 Crystal Palace 1100 404 3 W
3 Sparta Praha 1100 413 3 W
4 Beşiktaş 1100 413 3 W
5 Union Saint-Gilloise 1100 303 3 W
6 Ferencvárosi 1100 312 3 W
7 Benfica 1100 202 3 W
8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1100 202 3 W
9 OFI 1100 202 3 W
10 Olympique Lyonnais 1100 211 3 W
11 Torreense 1100 211 3 W
12 AFC Bournemouth 1100 211 3 W
13 Olympiacos F.C. 1100 211 3 W
14 Salzburg 1100 101 3 W
15 Omonia Nicosia 1100 101 3 W
16 Sunderland 1100 101 3 W
17 Rennes 1010 000 1 D
18 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1010 000 1 D
19 Dinamo Zagreb 1010 000 1 D
20 Sturm Graz 1010 000 1 D
21 Jagiellonia Białystok 1001 12-1 0 L
22 Real Sociedad 1001 12-1 0 L
23 Anderlecht 1001 12-1 0 L
24 Lillestrøm 1001 12-1 0 L
25 AZ Alkmaar 1001 01-1 0 L
26 Celta de Vigo 1001 01-1 0 L
27 Levski Sofia 1001 01-1 0 L
28 Celtic 1001 13-2 0 L
29 TSG Hoffenheim 1001 02-2 0 L
30 AC Milan 1001 02-2 0 L
31 Celje 1001 02-2 0 L
32 Olympique Marseille 1001 14-3 0 L
33 Ararat-Armenia 1001 14-3 0 L
34 Viktoria Plzeň 1001 03-3 0 L
35 Lech Poznań 1001 04-4 0 L
36 NEC Nijmegen 1001 05-5 0 L
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Anderlecht

DWW 2W 1D 0L · 7 pts (2.33 ppg) · GF 5 GA 2 · xG 0.74–2.05 · xPts 0.57

  • W A PAOK 1–0 xG 0.74–2.05 UEFA EL
  • W H Hammarby 3–1 UEFA EL
  • D A Hammarby 1–1 UEFA EL

PAOK

WWL 2W 0D 1L · 6 pts (2.0 ppg) · GF 5 GA 3 · xG 2.05–0.74 · xPts 2.23

  • L H Anderlecht 0–1 xG 2.05–0.74 UEFA EL
  • W H Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 UEFA EL
  • W A Dynamo Kyiv 3–2 UEFA EL

All meetings · 2 matches since 2026

Anderlecht 20 draws0 PAOK

Goals 4–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Anderlecht 20 draws0 PAOK

Goals 4–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Anderlecht 20 draws0 PAOK

Goals 4–2 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 50%

Recent meetings

  • W Anderlecht 3–2 PAOK UEFA EL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 2/2
  • W PAOK 0–1 Anderlecht UEFA EL · 3rd Qualifying Round · leg 1/2
MetricAnderlecht all · 7Anderlecht at home · 4PAOK all · 4PAOK away · 2
Results
Matches7
Points per game2.29
W / D / L5 / 1 / 1
Goals for / match2.14
Goals against / match0.86
Clean sheets43%
Failed to score0%
Both teams scored57%
Over 2.571%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.64
xG against / match1.72
xG difference-0.08
Finishing vs xG0.36
xPts / match1.32
Points vs xPts0.93
Game state
Scored first71%
PPG when scoring first2.60
PPG when conceding first1.50
Came back from behind50%
Leads held83%
Minutes leading59%
Minutes level21%
Minutes trailing20%
First goal (min)26
First goal conceded (min)34
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half33%
Late goals for (76'+)0.29
Late goals against0.29
Style
Possession46%
Shots11.6
On target5.4
Shot conversion18%
Shots inside box79%
Big chances created3.5
Corners5.1
xG from set plays36%
Goals from headers29%
Pressure index13.3
Dominant minutes53.1
Pass accuracy84%
Fouls14.1
Cards2.57

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Anderlecht

0–15'32
16–30'21
31–45'21
46–60'40
61–75'20
76–90'22

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Anderlecht · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.05) · stands out: when level +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.057
Early press (0-15, level)+0.547
Late push (76+, level)+0.152

Game state

When ahead-0.266
When level+0.657
When behind+0.222
10 min after conceding-0.084
10 min after scoring+0.107

Situations

Against ten men-0.872
At home+0.284
Away-0.283
4+ days rest+0.057

Opposition

Evenly matched+0.164
As underdog-0.362

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.296
Conceded late (76+)+0.055

Ahead vs level -0.91 · Behind vs level -0.43

PAOK · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.16) · stands out: when behind +0.44

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.166
Early press (0-15, level)-0.126
Late push (76+, level)+0.242
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.424

Game state

When ahead-0.382
When level+0.156
When behind+0.445
10 min after conceding-0.035
10 min after scoring+0.105

Situations

At home+0.303
Away+0.033
4+ days rest+0.166

Opposition

As favourite+0.303
Evenly matched+0.033

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.206
Conceded when ahead-0.012
Conceded late (76+)-0.426

Ahead vs level -0.53 · Behind vs level +0.29

Anderlecht

Current: winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-34 57%3.02.50.51.741.73
4-4-23 43%1.331.671.331.351.67

PAOK

Current: winless 4 · scoring 3 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 100%1.51.751.52.071.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.0h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.62Home 35% P 33%3.25Draw 28% P 27%2.4Away 38% P 41%

Double Chance

1.53Anderlecht or Draw 30%1.25Anderlecht or PAOK Salonika 36%1.33Draw or PAOK Salonika 34%

Draw No Bet

2.01 46%1.722 54%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 52%2.0Under 47% P 48%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 30%2.629 - 11 33%4.7512 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 32.5–35% · away 40–42.5% · 197 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home33%33%29%-3.9
Draw27%26%30%+4.7
Away41%41%40%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 66% · over 2.5 62%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.552%51%51%-0.1

Simone Sozza

Career
103 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.41 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.49
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 11 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.454.72+0.6477
Fouls / match23.824.1-0.11
Fouls per card4.85.1-0.46 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.730.33+2.7298
Time added6.86.6+0.1157
First card
33' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 42% in last 15'
Cards to home side
52% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-05-24 41 221 35'7
2026-05-17 50 271 48'11
2026-04-26 50 200 21'7
2026-04-05 10 210 60'5
2026-03-19 20 230 23'5
2026-03-08 51 461 44'10
2026-03-01 10 190 27'16
2026-02-26 30 331 28'3
2026-02-15 20 220 4'5
2026-02-01 40 260 45'7