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Champions League · League Stage · Matchday 1

Momentum

BVBVillarreal
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
1

Venue

Stadium
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Capacity
81,365
Surface
grass
Attendance
77,500

Teams

Coaches
Niko Kovač · Iñigo Pérez
Position
3 · 17
Formation
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Simone Sozza

Weather

Conditions
overcast clouds
Temperature
20.1° (feels 20.1°)
Wind
1.8
Humidity
76%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 1100 615 3 W
2 FC Bayern München 1100 505 3 W
3 FC Barcelona 1100 514 3 W
4 Manchester United 1100 404 3 W
5 Como 1100 413 3 W
6 Sporting CP 1100 312 3 W
7 VfB Stuttgart 1100 312 3 W
8 Manchester City 1100 202 3 W
9 Real Betis 1100 321 3 W
10 Lens 1100 321 3 W
11 Aston Villa 1100 321 3 W
12 Borussia Dortmund 1100 321 3 W
13 Real Madrid 1100 211 3 W
14 Liverpool 1100 211 3 W
15 Arsenal 1100 101 3 W
16 AEK Athens 1100 101 3 W
17 Roma 1010 110 1 D
18 Shakhtar Donetsk 1010 110 1 D
19 Fenerbahçe 1010 110 1 D
20 PSV 1010 110 1 D
21 Villarreal 1001 23-1 0 L
22 Slavia Praha 1001 23-1 0 L
23 Club Brugge 1001 23-1 0 L
24 LOSC Lille 1001 23-1 0 L
25 Atlético de Madrid 1001 12-1 0 L
26 Inter 1001 12-1 0 L
27 LASK 1001 01-1 0 L
28 Napoli 1001 01-1 0 L
29 Galatasaray 1001 13-2 0 L
30 Viking 1001 13-2 0 L
31 Porto 1001 02-2 0 L
32 RB Leipzig 1001 14-3 0 L
33 Feyenoord 1001 15-4 0 L
34 Sabah 1001 04-4 0 L
35 Slovan Bratislava 1001 16-5 0 L
36 Bodø / Glimt 1001 05-5 0 L
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Borussia Dortmund

WWW 3W 0D 0L · 9 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 2 · xG 5.99–2.8 · xPts 6.1

  • W A TSG Hoffenheim 3–2 xG 1.86–1.33 GER BI
  • W H Hamburger SV 2–0 xG 1.47–0.78 GER BI
  • W A Werder Bremen 2–0 xG 2.66–0.7 GER BI

Villarreal

WDDLL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 11 GA 9 · xG 9.89–5.79 · xPts 9.34

  • L H Deportivo A Coruña 2–3 xG 1.63–0.87 ESP PL
  • L A Deportivo Alavés 0–1 xG 1.73–0.74 ESP PL
  • D A Atlético de Madrid 2–2 xG 3.16–1.14 ESP PL
  • D A Racing Santander 2–2 xG 0.9–2.03 ESP PL
  • W H Atlético de Madrid 5–1 xG 2.47–1.01 ESP PL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 2 matches since 2025

Borussia Dortmund 20 draws0 Villarreal

Goals 7–2 · 4.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 2 matches

Borussia Dortmund 20 draws0 Villarreal

Goals 7–2 · 4.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 2 matches

Borussia Dortmund 20 draws0 Villarreal

Goals 7–2 · 4.5 per match · BTTS 50% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Villarreal UEFA CL · League Stage
  • W Borussia Dortmund 4–0 Villarreal UEFA CL · League Stage
MetricBorussia Dortmund all · 1Borussia Dortmund at home · 1Villarreal all · 1Villarreal away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Borussia Dortmund · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.01) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.014
Early press (0-15, level)-0.394
Late push (76+, level)-0.062

Game state

When ahead+0.154
When level-0.144
10 min after conceding-0.432
10 min after scoring+0.384

Situations

At home+0.093
4+ days rest-0.053

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.062
As favourite+0.093

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.054
Conceded when ahead-0.184
Conceded late (76+)-0.374

Congested vs rested +0.21 · Ahead vs level +0.28 · Behind vs level -0.34

Villarreal · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.43) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.77

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.437
Early press (0-15, level)+0.447
Late push (76+, level)-0.104
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.264

Game state

When ahead+0.754
When level+0.427
When behind+0.317
10 min after conceding-0.307
10 min after scoring+0.776

Situations

At home+0.162
Away+0.545
3 days rest or fewer+0.932
4+ days rest+0.235

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.042
v mid-tier opponents+0.632
v bottom-tier opponents+0.932
As favourite+0.554
As underdog+0.042

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.127
Conceded when ahead-0.334
Conceded late (76+)-0.027

Congested vs rested +0.70 · Ahead vs level +0.33 · Behind vs level -0.11

Borussia Dortmund

Current: unbeaten 6 · wins 6 · scoring 6 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-2-11 100%3.03.02.02.751.42

Villarreal

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 4 · conceding 21

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-11 100%0.02.03.01.422.75

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home -1.1 pts at 12.0h

1.77Home 53% · +0.4 ptsopened 1.793.95Draw 24% · +0.5 ptsopened 4.054.16Away 23% · -0.8 ptsopened 4.03
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.77 · +0.43.95 · +0.54.16 · -0.810m
bet3651.7 ▲ +2.24.0 · -0.44.5 ▼ -1.810m
Betfair1.8 ▼ -1.33.9 · +1.04.2 · +0.310m
BetVictor1.75 · +0.94.2 · -0.74.1 · -0.210m
Coral1.7 ▲ +2.64.0 · -0.24.4 ▼ -2.410m
Ladbrokes1.7 ▲ +2.64.0 · -0.24.4 ▼ -2.410m
Unibet1.79 ▼ -1.43.9 ▲ +1.74.25 · -0.310m
WilliamHill1.75 · +0.73.9 · -1.03.9 · +0.310m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.7Home 55% P 53%4.0Draw 24% P 24%4.5Away 21% P 23%

Double Chance

1.22Borussia Dortmund or Draw 38%1.22Borussia Dortmund or Villarreal 38%2.0Draw or Villarreal 23%

Draw No Bet

1.31 72%3.42 28%

Both Teams To Score

1.53Yes 61%2.37No 39%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 65%2.5Under 38% P 35%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.06 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.8Over 51% P 53%1.9Under 49% P 47%
4.52.1Over 44% P 36%1.66Under 56% P 64%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 52.5–55% · away 22.5–25% · 134 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home53%53%58%+4.7
Draw24%23%22%-1.6
Away23%23%20%-3.1

In those fixtures: 3.1 goals a game · BTTS 57% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 65–67.5% · 870 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%66%69%+3.2

Simone Sozza

Career
103 matches · 8 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.41 yellow · 0.15 red)
Fouls / match
25.2 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.49
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Champions League (5-year window · 6 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 5.0 cards, 24.3 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-05 30 120 35'9
2026-08-27 40 251 37'4
2026-08-13 52 201 43'8
2026-05-24 41 221 35'7
2026-05-17 50 271 48'11
2026-04-26 50 200 21'7
2026-04-05 10 210 60'5
2026-03-19 20 230 23'5
2026-03-08 51 461 44'10
2026-03-01 10 190 27'16