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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 1

Momentum

CelticFerencvárosi
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
1

Venue

Stadium
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Capacity
60,411
Surface
grass
Attendance
48,223

Teams

Coaches
Martin O'Neill · Balazs Borbely
Position
20 · 27
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Patrik Kolarić

Weather

Conditions
scattered clouds
Temperature
12.6° (feels 12.0°)
Wind
9.3
Humidity
80%

Where to watch · 207

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Juventus 1100 505 3 W
2 Crystal Palace 1100 404 3 W
3 Sparta Praha 1100 413 3 W
4 Beşiktaş 1100 413 3 W
5 Union Saint-Gilloise 1100 303 3 W
6 Ferencvárosi 1100 312 3 W
7 Benfica 1100 202 3 W
8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1100 202 3 W
9 OFI 1100 202 3 W
10 Olympique Lyonnais 1100 211 3 W
11 Torreense 1100 211 3 W
12 AFC Bournemouth 1100 211 3 W
13 Olympiacos F.C. 1100 211 3 W
14 Salzburg 1100 101 3 W
15 Omonia Nicosia 1100 101 3 W
16 Sunderland 1100 101 3 W
17 Rennes 1010 000 1 D
18 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1010 000 1 D
19 Dinamo Zagreb 1010 000 1 D
20 Sturm Graz 1010 000 1 D
21 Jagiellonia Białystok 1001 12-1 0 L
22 Real Sociedad 1001 12-1 0 L
23 Anderlecht 1001 12-1 0 L
24 Lillestrøm 1001 12-1 0 L
25 AZ Alkmaar 1001 01-1 0 L
26 Celta de Vigo 1001 01-1 0 L
27 Levski Sofia 1001 01-1 0 L
28 Celtic 1001 13-2 0 L
29 TSG Hoffenheim 1001 02-2 0 L
30 AC Milan 1001 02-2 0 L
31 Celje 1001 02-2 0 L
32 Olympique Marseille 1001 14-3 0 L
33 Ararat-Armenia 1001 14-3 0 L
34 Viktoria Plzeň 1001 03-3 0 L
35 Lech Poznań 1001 04-4 0 L
36 NEC Nijmegen 1001 05-5 0 L
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Celtic

WL 1W 0D 1L · 3 pts (1.5 ppg) · GF 4 GA 5 · xG 1.61–6.24 · xPts 1.16

  • L A LASK 1–5 aet xG 0.57–4.82 UEFA CL
  • W H LASK 3–0 xG 1.04–1.42 UEFA CL

Ferencvárosi

WDDWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 10 GA 4 · xG 6.9–4.02 · xPts 5.32

  • W H Trabzonspor 4–0 xG 3.83–0.4 UEFA EL
  • W A Trabzonspor 1–0 xG 1.91–1.45 UEFA EL
  • D A Górnik Zabrze 1–1 xG 1.17–2.17 UEFA EL
  • D H FC Twente 2–2 UEFA EL
  • W A FC Twente 2–1 UEFA EL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

32.8%Celtic P 57%23.9%Draw P 24%43.3%Ferencvárosi P 19%

Over / under 2.5

60.7%Over 2.5 P 58%39.3%Under 2.5 P 42%

Both teams to score

62.6%Yes37.4%No

Expected

Celtic goals
1.45 (0–3)
Ferencvárosi goals
1.69 (0–3)
Corners
12.15 (7–17)
Cards
4.21 (1–7)

Earlier: day before — 33.0% / 23.9% / 43.2%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

55.8%Celtic22.2%Draw21.9%Ferencvárosi

Over / under 2.5

60.1%Over 2.539.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

58.2%Yes41.8%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away0.8380.487
ou_2_5over0.4980.308
bttsyes0.4680.279

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 4 matches since 2020

Celtic 20 draws2 Ferencvárosi

Goals 7–7 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 75%

Last 10 · 4 matches

Celtic 20 draws2 Ferencvárosi

Goals 7–7 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 75%

Last 5 · 4 matches

Celtic 20 draws2 Ferencvárosi

Goals 7–7 · 3.5 per match · BTTS 75% · over 2.5 75%

Recent meetings

  • L Celtic 1–3 Ferencvárosi UEFA EL · League Stage
  • W Ferencvárosi 2–3 Celtic UEFA EL · Group Stage
  • W Celtic 2–0 Ferencvárosi UEFA EL · Group Stage
  • L Celtic 1–2 Ferencvárosi UEFA CL · 2nd Qualifying Round
MetricCeltic all · 1Celtic at home · 1Ferencvárosi all · 8Ferencvárosi away · 5
Results
Matches85
Points per game2.502.60
W / D / L6 / 2 / 04 / 1 / 0
Goals for / match2.251.80
Goals against / match0.750.80
Clean sheets38%20%
Failed to score0%0%
Both teams scored62%80%
Over 2.575%60%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.091.51
xG against / match1.311.62
xG difference0.77-0.11
Finishing vs xG0.160.16
xPts / match1.711.32
Points vs xPts0.791.01
Game state
Scored first88%80%
PPG when scoring first2.713.00
PPG when conceding first1.001.00
Came back from behind100%100%
Leads held86%100%
Minutes leading58%48%
Minutes level37%43%
Minutes trailing5%8%
First goal (min)2628
First goal conceded (min)5143
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half50%44%
Goals conceded in 2nd half33%0%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.60
Late goals against0.250.00
Style
Possession45%39%
Shots12.810.8
On target4.53.6
Shot conversion18%17%
Shots inside box68%66%
Big chances created2.51.3
Corners5.45.2
xG from set plays22%16%
Goals from headers25%20%
Pressure index11.55.6
Dominant minutes43.032.2
Pass accuracy81%79%
Fouls13.014.2
Cards2.002.20

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Ferencvárosi

0–15'20
16–30'50
31–45'24
46–60'40
61–75'10
76–90'42

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Celtic · 3 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) +0.83

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.043
Early press (0-15, level)+0.833
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.342

Game state

When ahead-0.162
When level+0.313
When behind-0.232
10 min after conceding-0.372
10 min after scoring-0.233

Situations

At home+0.132
4+ days rest-0.043

Opposition

As favourite+0.132

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.163
Conceded when ahead+0.092
Conceded late (76+)+0.152

Ahead vs level -0.47 · Behind vs level -0.54

Ferencvárosi · 8 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.21) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.43

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.218
Early press (0-15, level)-0.438
Late push (76+, level)-0.154

Game state

When ahead-0.177
When level-0.248
10 min after conceding-0.135
10 min after scoring+0.108

Situations

Against ten men+0.063
At home-0.113
Away-0.255
4+ days rest-0.218

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.332
Evenly matched-0.194
As underdog-0.273

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.208
Conceded when ahead+0.097
Conceded late (76+)-0.246

Ahead vs level +0.07 · Behind vs level -0.20

Celtic

Current: winless 2 · scoring 7 · conceding 2

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-11 100%0.01.03.01.241.44

Ferencvárosi

Current: unbeaten 8 · wins 3 · scoring 8 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-35 62%2.22.01.01.172.17
4-2-3-12 25%3.03.50.52.630.82
4-4-21 12%3.01.00.01.911.45

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 126 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: home +2.5 pts at 9.0h

1.68Home 57% · +0.7 ptsopened 1.693.97Draw 24% ▲ +1.0 ptsopened 4.124.97Away 19% ▼ -1.8 ptsopened 4.52
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.68 · +0.73.97 ▲ +1.04.97 ▼ -1.810m
bet3651.66 · +0.64.0 · -0.24.5 · -0.410m
Betfair1.7 · -0.33.9 ▲ +1.64.6 ▼ -1.410m
BetVictor1.65 · +0.84.1 · -0.34.5 · -0.510m
Coral1.7 · +0.14.0 ▲ +1.24.6 ▼ -1.210m
Ladbrokes1.67 · +0.94.0 ▲ +1.14.6 ▼ -2.010m
Unibet1.67 ▲ +1.14.1 · -0.44.7 · -0.810m
WilliamHill1.67 · +0.83.8 · +0.54.6 ▼ -1.310m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.66Home 56% P 57%4.0Draw 23% P 24%4.5Away 21% P 19%

Double Chance

1.18Celtic or Draw 40%1.22Celtic or Ferencvarosi TC 39%2.2Draw or Ferencvarosi TC 21%

Draw No Bet

1.251 75%3.752 25%

Both Teams To Score

1.57Yes 59%2.25No 41%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 58%2.5Under 38% P 42%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.66 - 8 24%2.629 - 11 33%3.7512 - 14 23%7.0Over 14 12%

Number of Cards

3.51.72Over 54% P 56%2.0Under 46% P 44%
4.52.2Over 42% P 39%1.61Under 58% P 61%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 55–57.5% · away 17.5–20% · 762 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home57%56%53%-2.8
Draw24%25%26%+1.0
Away19%19%21%+1.8

In those fixtures: 2.7 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 52%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Patrik Kolarić

Career
11 matches · 4 seasons
Cards / match
4.18 (4.0 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
25.6 · 6.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.36
Cards to home side
39%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 2 matches)

Fewer than 10 matches with card data in this league — averages only: 5.0 cards, 33.5 fouls per match.

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-27 50 240 29'4
2026-08-06 30 250 55'6
2026-07-30 20 250 57'5
2025-12-18 30 202 45'9