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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 1

Momentum

AnderlechtLYO
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
1

Venue

Stadium
Lotto Park, Brussels
Capacity
21,500
Surface
grass
Attendance
16,337

Teams

Coaches
Vítor Bruno Clara Santos Mota Fernandes · Paulo Rodrigues Fonseca
Position
23 · 22
Formation
4-4-2 · 4-3-3

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
13.8° (feels 13.3°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
80%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Juventus 1100 505 3 W
2 Crystal Palace 1100 404 3 W
3 Sparta Praha 1100 413 3 W
4 Beşiktaş 1100 413 3 W
5 Union Saint-Gilloise 1100 303 3 W
6 Ferencvárosi 1100 312 3 W
7 Benfica 1100 202 3 W
8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1100 202 3 W
9 OFI 1100 202 3 W
10 Olympique Lyonnais 1100 211 3 W
11 Torreense 1100 211 3 W
12 AFC Bournemouth 1100 211 3 W
13 Olympiacos F.C. 1100 211 3 W
14 Salzburg 1100 101 3 W
15 Omonia Nicosia 1100 101 3 W
16 Sunderland 1100 101 3 W
17 Rennes 1010 000 1 D
18 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1010 000 1 D
19 Dinamo Zagreb 1010 000 1 D
20 Sturm Graz 1010 000 1 D
21 Jagiellonia Białystok 1001 12-1 0 L
22 Real Sociedad 1001 12-1 0 L
23 Anderlecht 1001 12-1 0 L
24 Lillestrøm 1001 12-1 0 L
25 AZ Alkmaar 1001 01-1 0 L
26 Celta de Vigo 1001 01-1 0 L
27 Levski Sofia 1001 01-1 0 L
28 Celtic 1001 13-2 0 L
29 TSG Hoffenheim 1001 02-2 0 L
30 AC Milan 1001 02-2 0 L
31 Celje 1001 02-2 0 L
32 Olympique Marseille 1001 14-3 0 L
33 Ararat-Armenia 1001 14-3 0 L
34 Viktoria Plzeň 1001 03-3 0 L
35 Lech Poznań 1001 04-4 0 L
36 NEC Nijmegen 1001 05-5 0 L
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Anderlecht

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 13 GA 3 · xG 5.21–5.2 · xPts 4.13

  • W H Kairat 3–0 xG 2.52–1.06 UEFA EL
  • W A Kairat 3–0 UEFA EL
  • W H PAOK 3–2 xG 1.95–2.09 UEFA EL
  • W A PAOK 1–0 xG 0.74–2.05 UEFA EL
  • W H Hammarby 3–1 UEFA EL

Olympique Lyonnais

WLDWD 2W 2D 1L · 8 pts (1.6 ppg) · GF 7 GA 4 · xG 7.74–6.55 · xPts 7.68

  • D A Paris 0–0 xG 0.77–0.58 FRA L1
  • W H Auxerre 3–1 xG 2.7–0.73 FRA L1
  • D H Le Havre 1–1 xG 1.71–0.74 FRA L1
  • L H Fenerbahçe 1–2 xG 1.51–2.52 UEFA CL
  • W A Toulouse 2–0 xG 1.06–1.99 FRA L1

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

49.0%Anderlecht P 32%25.1%Draw P 27%25.9%Olympique Lyonnais P 42%

Over / under 2.5

51.8%Over 2.5 P 55%48.2%Under 2.5 P 45%

Both teams to score

54.3%Yes45.7%No

Expected

Anderlecht goals
1.63 (0–3)
Olympique Lyonnais goals
1.12 (0–3)
Corners
9.37 (5–14)
Cards
4.79 (2–8)

Earlier: day before — 49.0% / 25.1% / 25.9%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

43.4%Anderlecht26.9%Draw29.7%Olympique Lyonnais

Over / under 2.5

48.3%Over 2.551.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

50.8%Yes49.2%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away1.350.851
ou_2_5over0.6590.465
bttsyes0.610.417

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 5 matches since 2003

Anderlecht 10 draws4 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 10 · 5 matches

Anderlecht 10 draws4 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Anderlecht 10 draws4 Olympique Lyonnais

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Anderlecht 1–2 Olympique Lyonnais UEFA EL · League Stage
  • L Anderlecht 1–3 Olympique Lyonnais UEFA CL · Play-offs · leg 2/2
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 5–1 Anderlecht UEFA CL · Play-offs · leg 1/2
  • W Anderlecht 1–0 Olympique Lyonnais UEFA CL · Group Stage
  • L Olympique Lyonnais 1–0 Anderlecht UEFA CL · Group Stage
MetricAnderlecht all · 7Anderlecht at home · 4Olympique Lyonnais all · 1Olympique Lyonnais away · 1
Results
Matches7
Points per game2.29
W / D / L5 / 1 / 1
Goals for / match2.14
Goals against / match0.86
Clean sheets43%
Failed to score0%
Both teams scored57%
Over 2.571%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.64
xG against / match1.72
xG difference-0.08
Finishing vs xG0.36
xPts / match1.32
Points vs xPts0.93
Game state
Scored first71%
PPG when scoring first2.60
PPG when conceding first1.50
Came back from behind50%
Leads held83%
Minutes leading59%
Minutes level21%
Minutes trailing20%
First goal (min)26
First goal conceded (min)34
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half33%
Late goals for (76'+)0.29
Late goals against0.29
Style
Possession46%
Shots11.6
On target5.4
Shot conversion18%
Shots inside box79%
Big chances created3.5
Corners5.1
xG from set plays36%
Goals from headers29%
Pressure index13.3
Dominant minutes53.1
Pass accuracy84%
Fouls14.1
Cards2.57

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Anderlecht

0–15'32
16–30'21
31–45'21
46–60'40
61–75'20
76–90'22

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Anderlecht · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.05) · stands out: when level +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.057
Early press (0-15, level)+0.547
Late push (76+, level)+0.152

Game state

When ahead-0.266
When level+0.657
When behind+0.222
10 min after conceding-0.084
10 min after scoring+0.107

Situations

Against ten men-0.872
At home+0.284
Away-0.283
4+ days rest+0.057

Opposition

Evenly matched+0.164
As underdog-0.362

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.296
Conceded late (76+)+0.055

Ahead vs level -0.91 · Behind vs level -0.43

Olympique Lyonnais · 8 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.42

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.028
Early press (0-15, level)-0.118
Late push (76+, level)-0.353
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.332

Game state

When ahead+0.155
When level-0.128
When behind-0.052
10 min after conceding-0.145
10 min after scoring+0.427

Situations

At home+0.094
Away-0.134
4+ days rest-0.017

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.032
v mid-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents+0.102
As favourite+0.094
Evenly matched-0.163

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.008
Conceded when ahead-0.115
Conceded late (76+)-0.327

Congested vs rested -0.07 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.07

Anderlecht

Current: winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-34 57%3.02.50.51.741.73
4-4-23 43%1.331.671.331.351.67

Olympique Lyonnais

Current: unbeaten 4 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-31 100%3.02.01.01.671.35

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away -2.9 pts at 10.0h

3.06Home 32% ▲ +4.1 ptsopened 3.463.6Draw 27% ▲ +1.8 ptsopened 3.792.33Away 42% ▼ -5.8 ptsopened 2.01
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 25%30%35%40%45%50%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle3.06 ▲ +4.13.6 ▲ +1.82.33 ▼ -5.810m
bet3652.87 ▲ +7.13.6 · +0.42.35 ▼ -7.510m
Betfair2.9 ▲ +4.73.4 ▲ +1.52.3 ▼ -6.210m
BetVictor2.9 ▲ +4.63.6 · +0.62.25 ▼ -5.210m
Coral2.87 ▲ +5.43.5 ▲ +1.72.37 ▼ -7.010m
Ladbrokes2.87 ▲ +5.13.4 ▲ +2.22.37 ▼ -7.310m
Unibet3.5 · +0.03.8 · +0.01.97 · +0.010m
WilliamHill2.9 ▲ +4.03.3 ▲ +1.72.3 ▼ -5.810m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.87Home 33% P 32%3.6Draw 26% P 27%2.35Away 40% P 42%

Double Chance

1.57Anderlecht or Draw 30%1.28Anderlecht or Lyon 37%1.4Draw or Lyon 33%

Draw No Bet

2.11 44%1.662 56%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 55%2.2Under 43% P 45%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.16 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 20%10.0Over 14 9%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 61%2.2Under 42% P 39%
4.52.1Over 44% P 41%1.66Under 56% P 59%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 30–32.5% · away 40–42.5% · 560 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home32%31%31%-0.2
Draw27%28%24%-4.2
Away42%41%46%+4.4

In those fixtures: 2.8 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 54%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 55–57.5% · 2,507 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.555%56%56%-0.2

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Career
222 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
4.63 (4.44 yellow · 0.12 red)
Fouls / match
22.2 · 4.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.28
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 12 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.04.72+0.1857
Fouls / match21.924.1-1.00
Fouls per card5.15.1-0.09 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.420.33+0.6977
Time added5.66.6-1.178
First card
34' on average
Card timing
19% in first 30' · 41% in last 15'
Cards to home side
46% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-13 40 230 26'9
2026-08-29 20 160 69'11
2026-08-20 60 351 11'5
2026-08-15 81 362 45'17
2026-07-23 21 15'5
2026-05-17 30 220 61'8
2026-05-14 21 2
2026-05-03 30 291 28'8
2026-04-23 20 201 37'13
2026-03-15 61 250 31'12