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Europa League · League Stage · Matchday 1

Momentum

ARAR2Sparta Praha
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
League Stage
Round
1

Venue

Stadium
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Capacity
14,403
Surface
grass
Attendance
11,400

Teams

Coaches
Manuel da Silva Cruz · Brian Priske Pedersen
Position
33 · 23
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-3-3

Referee

Mohammed Al Hakim

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
25.1° (feels 24.7°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
38%

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2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Juventus 1100 505 3 W
2 Crystal Palace 1100 404 3 W
3 Sparta Praha 1100 413 3 W
4 Beşiktaş 1100 413 3 W
5 Union Saint-Gilloise 1100 303 3 W
6 Ferencvárosi 1100 312 3 W
7 Benfica 1100 202 3 W
8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1100 202 3 W
9 OFI 1100 202 3 W
10 Olympique Lyonnais 1100 211 3 W
11 Torreense 1100 211 3 W
12 AFC Bournemouth 1100 211 3 W
13 Olympiacos F.C. 1100 211 3 W
14 Salzburg 1100 101 3 W
15 Omonia Nicosia 1100 101 3 W
16 Sunderland 1100 101 3 W
17 Rennes 1010 000 1 D
18 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1010 000 1 D
19 Dinamo Zagreb 1010 000 1 D
20 Sturm Graz 1010 000 1 D
21 Jagiellonia Białystok 1001 12-1 0 L
22 Real Sociedad 1001 12-1 0 L
23 Anderlecht 1001 12-1 0 L
24 Lillestrøm 1001 12-1 0 L
25 AZ Alkmaar 1001 01-1 0 L
26 Celta de Vigo 1001 01-1 0 L
27 Levski Sofia 1001 01-1 0 L
28 Celtic 1001 13-2 0 L
29 TSG Hoffenheim 1001 02-2 0 L
30 AC Milan 1001 02-2 0 L
31 Celje 1001 02-2 0 L
32 Olympique Marseille 1001 14-3 0 L
33 Ararat-Armenia 1001 14-3 0 L
34 Viktoria Plzeň 1001 03-3 0 L
35 Lech Poznań 1001 04-4 0 L
36 NEC Nijmegen 1001 05-5 0 L
  • 8th Finals
  • Play-off

Ararat-Armenia

WLLDW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 5 GA 5 · xG 1.23–1.49 · xPts 1.19

  • W H Universitatea Craiova 1–0 xG 1.23–1.49 UEFA EL
  • D A Universitatea Craiova 1–1 UEFA EL
  • L A Celje 0–2 UEFA CL
  • L A Shamrock Rovers 1–2 UEFA CL
  • W H Shamrock Rovers 2–0 UEFA CL

Sparta Praha

L 0W 0D 1L · 0 pts (0.0 ppg) · GF 0 GA 3 · xG 0.64–2.09 · xPts 0.49

  • L A Olympique Lyonnais 0–3 xG 0.64–2.09 UEFA CL

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · lineups confirmed ·

Match result

46.9%Ararat-Armenia P 20%26.0%Draw P 24%27.1%Sparta Praha P 55%

Over / under 2.5

49.0%Over 2.5 P 58%51.0%Under 2.5 P 42%

Both teams to score

52.6%Yes47.4%No

Expected

Ararat-Armenia goals
1.53 (0–3)
Sparta Praha goals
1.1 (0–3)
Corners
9.84 (6–14)
Cards
4.4 (2–8)

Earlier: day before — 46.9% / 26.0% / 27.1%

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

38.0%Ararat-Armenia23.8%Draw38.1%Sparta Praha

Over / under 2.5

56.1%Over 2.543.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.6%Yes42.4%No

Scored

MarketObservedLog lossBrier
1x2away1.3060.819
ou_2_5over0.7130.52
bttsyes0.6420.449

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 3 matches since 2025

Ararat-Armenia 00 draws3 Sparta Praha

Goals 3–10 · 4.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 10 · 3 matches

Ararat-Armenia 00 draws3 Sparta Praha

Goals 3–10 · 4.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Last 5 · 3 matches

Ararat-Armenia 00 draws3 Sparta Praha

Goals 3–10 · 4.33 per match · BTTS 100% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • L Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta Praha UEFA EL · League Stage
  • L Ararat-Armenia 1–2 Sparta Praha UEFA ECL · Qualification Round 3 · leg 2/2
  • L Sparta Praha 4–1 Ararat-Armenia UEFA ECL · Qualification Round 3 · leg 1/2
MetricArarat-Armenia all · 3Ararat-Armenia at home · 2Sparta Praha all · 1Sparta Praha away · 1

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Ararat-Armenia · 8 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.34) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.47

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.348
Early press (0-15, level)-0.358
Late push (76+, level)-0.454
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.473

Game state

When ahead-0.264
When level-0.358
When behind-0.384
10 min after conceding-0.435
10 min after scoring-0.207

Situations

At home-0.394
Away-0.304
4+ days rest-0.348

Opposition

As underdog-0.336

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.328
Conceded when ahead-0.224
Conceded late (76+)+0.177

Ahead vs level +0.09 · Behind vs level -0.03

Sparta Praha · 2 matches

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.662
Early press (0-15, level)+0.592

Game state

When level+0.732
10 min after conceding+0.022

Situations

Away+0.662
4+ days rest+0.662

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.182

Ahead vs level +0.55 · Behind vs level -0.70

Ararat-Armenia

Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-33 100%1.331.01.671.331.98

Sparta Praha

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 4

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-31 100%3.04.01.02.481.44

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 125 snapshots · last 5m before kick-off · biggest step: away -2.7 pts at 2.8h

4.73Home 20% ▲ +1.6 ptsopened 5.053.94Draw 24% ▲ +1.7 ptsopened 4.151.75Away 55% ▼ -3.3 ptsopened 1.62
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle4.73 ▲ +1.63.94 ▲ +1.71.75 ▼ -3.35m
bet3654.5 ▲ +1.73.9 · +0.21.72 ▼ -1.95m
Betfair4.4 ▲ +2.03.75 ▲ +2.01.67 ▼ -4.05m
BetVictor4.2 ▲ +3.24.0 · -0.11.73 ▼ -3.15m
Coral4.2 ▲ +3.83.9 ▲ +1.91.8 ▼ -5.75m
Ladbrokes4.2 ▲ +3.03.8 ▲ +2.61.8 ▼ -5.65m
Unibet5.2 · +0.04.1 · +0.01.66 · +0.05m
WilliamHill4.2 ▲ +2.83.7 ▲ +1.31.75 ▼ -4.15m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

4.5Home 21% P 20%3.9Draw 24% P 24%1.72Away 55% P 55%

Double Chance

2.2Ararat Armenia or Draw 21%1.22Ararat Armenia or Sparta Prague 38%1.16Draw or Sparta Prague 40%

Draw No Bet

3.51 27%1.282 73%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56%2.1No 44%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.66Over 57% P 58%2.2Under 43% P 42%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.629 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Number of Cards

3.51.61Over 58% P 59%2.2Under 42% P 41%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 20–22.5% · away 55–57.5% · 207 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home20%21%18%-2.6
Draw24%23%25%+2.1
Away55%56%57%+0.4

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 63%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 57.5–60% · 2,409 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.558%59%60%+0.8

Mohammed Al Hakim

Career
42 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
3.71 (3.55 yellow · 0.14 red)
Fouls / match
22.9 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.31
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Europa League (5-year window · 15 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match3.84.72-1.0611
Fouls / match22.524.1-0.72
Fouls per card5.95.1+0.76 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.270.33-0.2943
Time added6.56.6-0.2134
First card
33' on average
Card timing
22% in first 30' · 20% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 46%)
VAR events / match
1.5

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-20 50 171 30'6
2026-01-22 30 230 45'11
2025-11-27 70 150 37'4
2025-11-06 50 220 17'7
2025-10-02 40 290 34'8