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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 10

Momentum

Casa PiaCFEA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
10

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Pina Manique, Lisboa
Capacity
7,000
Surface
grass
Attendance
1,214

Teams

Coaches
João Jorge Gândara Mendes Pereira · João Nuno
Position
14 · 16
Formation
3-4-3 · 3-4-3

Referee

Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Weather

Conditions
light rain
Temperature
20.4° (feels 20.5°)
Wind
8.4
Humidity
75%

Where to watch · 3

  • International Bet365
  • Portugal Sport TV Multiscreen
  • Ukraine Megogo

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Casa Pia

WDLDL 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 6 GA 9 · xG 5.44–6.81 · xPts 6.15

  • L A Sporting Braga 0–4 xG 0.18–2.04 PRT PL
  • D H Estoril 2–2 xG 1.46–0.75 PRT PL
  • L A Moreirense 1–2 xG 1.56–1.3 PRT PL
  • D H Famalicão 1–1 xG 1.13–1.93 PRT PL
  • W A Arouca 2–0 xG 1.12–0.8 PRT PL

Estrela Amadora

LDWLL 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 5.3–7.29 · xPts 5.7

  • L H Rio Ave 1–2 xG 0.83–0.66 PRT PL
  • L A Gil Vicente 0–2 xG 0.89–2.59 PRT PL
  • W H AVS 3–0 xG 2.0–0.7 PRT PL
  • D A Tondela 0–0 xG 1.1–1.86 PRT PL
  • L H Vitória Guimarães 0–2 xG 0.49–1.49 PRT PL

All meetings · 6 matches since 2023

Casa Pia 20 draws4 Estrela Amadora

Goals 6–13 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%

Last 10 · 6 matches

Casa Pia 20 draws4 Estrela Amadora

Goals 6–13 · 3.17 per match · BTTS 33% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Casa Pia 20 draws3 Estrela Amadora

Goals 6–12 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Estrela Amadora 4–0 Casa Pia PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Casa Pia 3–5 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Casa Pia 1–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estrela Amadora 0–1 Casa Pia PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Estrela Amadora 3–1 Casa Pia neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Casa Pia 0–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricCasa Pia all · 34Casa Pia at home · 17Estrela Amadora all · 34Estrela Amadora away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game0.880.880.880.71
W / D / L6 / 12 / 162 / 9 / 66 / 12 / 162 / 6 / 9
Goals for / match0.911.061.121.00
Goals against / match1.681.531.651.88
Clean sheets21%12%24%18%
Failed to score44%41%44%47%
Both teams scored47%59%47%53%
Over 2.544%29%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.940.981.130.92
xG against / match1.561.491.631.74
xG difference-0.62-0.51-0.50-0.82
Finishing vs xG-0.030.08-0.020.08
xPts / match1.001.071.070.89
Points vs xPts-0.12-0.19-0.19-0.19
Game state
Scored first29%29%26%24%
PPG when scoring first1.501.201.560.50
PPG when conceding first0.550.700.550.70
Came back from behind30%46%33%31%
Leads held46%29%50%33%
Minutes leading17%20%15%13%
Minutes level53%60%52%53%
Minutes trailing30%20%33%34%
First goal (min)42394039
First goal conceded (min)39473333
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half48%39%50%53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%62%55%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.180.180.18
Late goals against0.320.350.180.29
Style
Possession41%41%47%43%
Shots8.98.310.88.6
On target2.92.73.63.2
Shot conversion10%13%10%12%
Shots inside box62%61%55%56%
Big chances created1.71.82.01.5
Corners4.03.63.33.1
xG from set plays38%42%41%43%
Goals from headers19%22%13%12%
Pressure index7.18.98.96.7
Dominant minutes35.641.538.430.6
Pass accuracy72%71%79%78%
Fouls15.916.914.414.5
Cards3.003.242.852.82

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Casa Pia

0–15'57
16–30'33
31–45'815
46–60'49
61–75'512
76–90'611

Estrela Amadora

0–15'59
16–30'65
31–45'811
46–60'413
61–75'912
76–90'66

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Casa Pia · 6 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.15) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) +0.65

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.156
Early press (0-15, level)-0.136
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.654

Game state

When level-0.046
When behind+0.335
10 min after conceding+0.075

Situations

At home+0.423
Away-0.053
4+ days rest+0.156

Opposition

v top-tier opponents+0.122
v mid-tier opponents-0.102
As underdog+0.005

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.146
Conceded late (76+)-0.265

Ahead vs level +2.48 · Behind vs level +0.37

Estrela Amadora · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195

Game state

When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416

Situations

At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296

Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12

Casa Pia

Current: winless 7 · scoring 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-323 68%1.041.091.611.021.49
3-4-2-14 12%0.250.252.00.691.55
5-4-13 9%0.330.672.330.72.23
3-5-22 6%0.00.52.00.851.51
4-1-4-11 3%3.02.01.01.621.64

Estrela Amadora

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-310 29%1.51.61.61.281.78
4-2-3-110 29%0.71.22.31.072.09
4-3-34 12%0.751.01.01.40.89
5-3-23 9%0.330.671.671.551.6
4-1-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.781.49

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.2Home 43% P 43%3.0Draw 31% P 31%3.6Away 26% P 26%

Double Chance

1.3Casa Pia or Draw 36% P 37%1.36Casa Pia or Estrela Amadora 34% P 35%1.57Draw or Estrela Amadora 30% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.571 59%2.252 41%

Both Teams To Score

2.0Yes 47% P 46%1.75No 53% P 54%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.4Over 39% P 38%1.53Under 61% P 62%

Total Corners

9.0Under 6 10%3.16 - 8 29%2.69 - 11 34%4.512 - 14 20%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 42.5–45% · away 25–27.5% · 725 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home43%44%44%-0.2
Draw31%30%28%-1.4
Away26%26%28%+1.6

In those fixtures: 2.5 goals a game · BTTS 53% · over 2.5 45%

Both teams to score · yes 45–47.5% · 2,102 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes46%46%47%+0.3

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 37.5–40% · 1,310 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.538%39%39%+0.7

Hélder Miguel Azevedo Malheiro

Career
155 matches · 12 seasons
Cards / match
5.72 (5.4 yellow · 0.17 red)
Fouls / match
31.3 · 5.1 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
48%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 74 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match6.225.66+0.7476
Fouls / match29.927.9+1.08
Fouls per card4.84.9-0.32 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.610.37+1.7597
Time added8.37.7+0.8385
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 34% in last 15'
Cards to home side
48% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-04 41 282 15'8
2025-09-27 · Estrela Amadora 52 310 59'7
2025-09-21 · Casa Pia 30 391 6'8
2025-08-17 11 141 24'6
2025-08-10 40 201 29'8
2025-04-06 · Estrela Amadora 30 290 21'9
2025-03-30 60 322 7'9
2025-03-09 · Casa Pia 70 191 6'8
2025-02-15 91 380 49'9
2025-02-09 · Casa Pia · Estrela Amadora 80 330 23'9