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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14

Momentum

PortoCFEA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
14

Venue

Stadium
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Capacity
50,033
Surface
grass
Attendance
31,247

Teams

Coaches
Francesco Farioli · João Nuno
Position
1 · 13
Formation
4-3-3 · 3-4-3

Referee

Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Weather

Conditions
broken clouds
Temperature
9.7° (feels 8.8°)
Wind
2.1
Humidity
93%

Where to watch · 21

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Porto

WWWWW 5W 0D 0L · 15 pts (3.0 ppg) · GF 9 GA 1 · xG 8.73–3.15 · xPts 10.63

  • W H Malmö FF 2–1 xG 2.68–0.72 UEFA EL
  • W A Tondela 2–0 xG 1.9–0.58 PRT PL
  • W H Estoril 1–0 xG 1.37–0.72 PRT PL
  • W H Nice 3–0 xG 1.31–0.81 UEFA EL
  • W A Famalicão 1–0 xG 1.48–0.32 PRT PL

Estrela Amadora

LWDLW 2W 1D 2L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 10 GA 11 · xG 7.78–5.97 · xPts 7.83

  • W H Arouca 3–1 xG 2.32–0.85 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting CP 0–4 xG 0.17–1.62 PRT PL
  • D H Nacional 1–1 xG 2.17–1.65 PRT PL
  • W A Casa Pia 5–3 xG 2.3–1.2 PRT PL
  • L H Rio Ave 1–2 xG 0.83–0.66 PRT PL

All meetings · 14 matches since 2005

Porto 101 draws3 Estrela Amadora

Goals 30–11 · 2.93 per match · BTTS 36% · over 2.5 57%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Porto 81 draws1 Estrela Amadora

Goals 25–8 · 3.3 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 60%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Porto 40 draws1 Estrela Amadora

Goals 9–4 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 40%

Recent meetings

  • W Estrela Amadora 1–2 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 3–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Estrela Amadora 2–0 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 2–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 2–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estrela Amadora 0–1 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 3–0 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estrela Amadora 2–4 Porto PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Porto 6–0 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Estrela Amadora 2–2 Porto neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricPorto all · 34Porto at home · 17Estrela Amadora all · 34Estrela Amadora away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game2.592.650.880.71
W / D / L28 / 4 / 214 / 3 / 06 / 12 / 162 / 6 / 9
Goals for / match1.941.941.121.00
Goals against / match0.530.351.651.88
Clean sheets62%71%24%18%
Failed to score3%6%44%47%
Both teams scored38%29%47%53%
Over 2.556%47%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.861.851.130.92
xG against / match0.710.581.631.74
xG difference1.161.27-0.50-0.82
Finishing vs xG0.080.09-0.020.08
xPts / match2.072.121.070.89
Points vs xPts0.520.53-0.19-0.19
Game state
Scored first85%94%26%24%
PPG when scoring first2.792.751.560.50
PPG when conceding first1.500.550.70
Came back from behind50%33%31%
Leads held90%88%50%33%
Minutes leading51%54%15%13%
Minutes level43%46%52%53%
Minutes trailing6%0%33%34%
First goal (min)36334039
First goal conceded (min)56653333
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half56%52%50%53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half78%100%55%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.350.470.180.18
Late goals against0.180.120.180.29
Style
Possession55%56%47%43%
Shots14.514.610.88.6
On target5.35.43.63.2
Shot conversion13%13%10%12%
Shots inside box66%68%55%56%
Big chances created2.92.92.01.5
Corners5.65.63.33.1
xG from set plays31%33%41%43%
Goals from headers14%6%13%12%
Pressure index19.920.88.96.7
Dominant minutes64.864.938.430.6
Pass accuracy84%85%79%78%
Fouls13.913.614.414.5
Cards2.532.122.852.82

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Porto

0–15'91
16–30'82
31–45'121
46–60'135
61–75'123
76–90'126

Estrela Amadora

0–15'59
16–30'65
31–45'811
46–60'413
61–75'912
76–90'66

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Porto · 7 matches

Pressure above an average side in the same situations (+0.40) · stands out: when level +0.80

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.407
Early press (0-15, level)+0.717

Game state

When ahead+0.146
When level+0.807
When behind+0.193
10 min after conceding+0.203
10 min after scoring+0.616

Situations

At home+0.414
Away+0.393
4+ days rest+0.407

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.605
As favourite+0.566

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.077
Conceded when ahead+0.126
Conceded late (76+)+0.016

Ahead vs level -0.67 · Behind vs level -0.61

Estrela Amadora · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195

Game state

When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416

Situations

At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296

Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12

Porto

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-3-334 100%2.591.940.531.860.71

Estrela Amadora

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-310 29%1.51.61.61.281.78
4-2-3-110 29%0.71.22.31.072.09
4-3-34 12%0.751.01.01.40.89
5-3-23 9%0.330.671.671.551.6
4-1-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.781.49

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.16Home 80% P 82%7.0Draw 13% P 12%15.0Away 6% P 5%

Double Chance

1.03FC Porto or Draw 47% P 47%1.1FC Porto or Estrela Amadora 44% P 44%5.0Draw or Estrela Amadora 10% P 9%

Draw No Bet

1.041 93%13.02 7%

Both Teams To Score

2.37Yes 39% P 37%1.53No 61% P 63%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 61% P 62%2.4Under 39% P 38%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.876 - 8 31%2.759 - 11 32%5.012 - 14 18%11.0Over 14 8%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 80–82.5% · away 5–7.5% · 442 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home82%81%83%+1.6
Draw12%13%11%-1.8
Away5%6%6%+0.2

In those fixtures: 3.3 goals a game · BTTS 45% · over 2.5 65%

Both teams to score · yes 35–37.5% · 141 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes37%36%38%+1.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 60–62.5% · 2,027 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.562%61%63%+1.5

Miguel André Monteiro Fonseca

Career
19 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
5.37 (5.26 yellow · 0.05 red)
Fouls / match
29.0 · 5.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.32
Cards to home side
47%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 18 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.395.66-0.3233
Fouls / match29.027.9+0.59
Fouls per card5.74.9+0.74 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.440.37+0.6076
Time added8.37.7+0.8385
First card
28' on average
Card timing
11% in first 30' · 47% in last 15'
Cards to home side
47% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.25

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2025-10-26 60 281 40'12
2025-09-28 30 110 12'18
2025-05-11 80 360 33'8
2025-04-12 70 420 34'2
2025-03-30 61 390 16'10
2025-02-15 60 291 25'11
2025-01-18 40 300 38'9