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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 27
NantesNantes
2–3
FT
StrasbourgStrasbourg

Momentum

– NantesStrasbourg –
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
27

Venue

Stadium
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Nantes
Capacity
37,473
Surface
grass
Attendance
21,878

Teams

Coaches
Vahid Halilhodžić · Gary O'Neil
Position
17 · 8
Formation
4-1-4-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Mathieu Vernice

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
10.0° (feels 8.5°)
Wind
3.1
Humidity
76%

Where to watch · 156

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Paris Saint Germain 342446 742945 76 WDWWL
2 Lens 342248 663531 70 DDWLW
3 LOSC Lille 341879 523715 61 DWDWL
4 Olympique Lyonnais 3418610 534013 60 WWWLL
5 Olympique Marseille 3418511 634518 59 LDLWW
6 Rennes 341789 59509 59 WWLWL
7 Monaco 3416612 60546 54 DDWLL
8 Strasbourg 3415811 584711 53 WLDWW
9 Lorient 34111211 4851-3 45 WLDWL
10 Toulouse 3312813 47461 44 LLDWW
11 Paris 34111112 4750-3 44 WLWLW
12 Brest 3410915 4355-12 39 DLLLD
13 Angers SCO 349916 2948-19 36 DLLDD
14 Le Havre 3471413 3244-12 35 DDDLW
15 Auxerre 3481016 3444-10 34 DLWWW
16 Nice 3471116 3760-23 32 DDDLD
17 Nantes 335820 2952-23 23 DLLWL
18 Metz 343823 3276-44 17 LDLLD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Nantes

LLWLL 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 3 GA 6 · xG 4.92–5.23 · xPts 6.43

  • L H Angers SCO 0–1 xG 0.86–0.63 FRA L1
  • L A LOSC Lille 0–1 xG 0.25–0.85 FRA L1
  • W H Le Havre 2–0 xG 1.51–0.77 FRA L1
  • L A Monaco 1–3 xG 1.27–1.81 FRA L1
  • L H Olympique Lyonnais 0–1 xG 1.04–1.17 FRA L1

Strasbourg

DDWDD 1W 4D 0L · 7 pts (1.4 ppg) · GF 4 GA 3 · xG 6.72–6.63 · xPts 6.98

  • D H Rijeka 1–1 xG 1.64–1.25 UEFA ECL
  • D H Paris 0–0 xG 1.37–0.65 FRA L1
  • W A Rijeka 2–1 xG 1.81–1.66 UEFA ECL
  • D A Auxerre 0–0 xG 1.37–1.26 FRA L1
  • D H Lens 1–1 xG 0.52–1.81 FRA L1

All meetings · 19 matches since 2005

Nantes 72 draws10 Strasbourg

Goals 23–32 · 2.89 per match · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 58%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Nantes 12 draws7 Strasbourg

Goals 9–18 · 2.7 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Nantes 00 draws5 Strasbourg

Goals 4–11 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • L Nantes 2–3 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 1–0 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nantes 0–1 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 3–1 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nantes 1–3 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • W Strasbourg 1–2 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Nantes 0–2 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Strasbourg 1–1 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • L Strasbourg 1–0 Nantes FRA L1 · Regular Season
  • D Nantes 2–2 Strasbourg FRA L1 · Regular Season
MetricNantes all · 33Nantes at home · 16Strasbourg all · 34Strasbourg away · 17
Results
Matches33163417
Points per game0.700.751.561.35
W / D / L5 / 8 / 203 / 3 / 1015 / 8 / 116 / 5 / 6
Goals for / match0.881.131.711.65
Goals against / match1.581.691.381.65
Clean sheets21%19%26%12%
Failed to score42%31%18%18%
Both teams scored46%50%65%76%
Over 2.546%44%65%65%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.101.221.461.42
xG against / match1.491.401.331.61
xG difference-0.38-0.190.13-0.19
Finishing vs xG-0.22-0.090.240.23
xPts / match1.131.271.441.25
Points vs xPts-0.44-0.520.120.10
Game state
Scored first27%31%56%41%
PPG when scoring first2.002.002.052.00
PPG when conceding first0.100.180.920.89
Came back from behind9%17%31%40%
Leads held56%60%65%60%
Minutes leading19%25%26%21%
Minutes level50%40%52%46%
Minutes trailing30%36%22%34%
First goal (min)37354144
First goal conceded (min)43393935
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half45%50%57%57%
Goals conceded in 2nd half58%52%62%61%
Late goals for (76'+)0.150.190.410.59
Late goals against0.580.630.350.35
Style
Possession42%44%54%56%
Shots11.312.111.510.9
On target3.33.54.64.2
Shot conversion8%9%15%15%
Shots inside box65%63%69%69%
Big chances created1.82.13.02.8
Corners3.74.04.23.5
xG from set plays36%34%23%26%
Goals from headers14%11%16%21%
Pressure index8.28.314.212.2
Dominant minutes36.237.354.752.8
Pass accuracy78%78%88%88%
Fouls12.712.511.112.6
Cards2.122.061.942.41

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Nantes

0–15'66
16–30'18
31–45'98
46–60'57
61–75'34
76–90'519

Strasbourg

0–15'47
16–30'106
31–45'115
46–60'914
61–75'103
76–90'1412

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Nantes

No pressure profile yet.

Strasbourg · 4 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.04) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +1.02

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.044
Early press (0-15, level)+0.114
Late push (76+, level)-0.532

Game state

When ahead+0.393
When level-0.044
When behind-0.063
10 min after conceding-0.144
10 min after scoring+1.023

Situations

At home+0.082
Away+0.002
4+ days rest+0.044

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.053
Evenly matched-0.022
As underdog+0.112

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.214
Conceded when ahead+0.053
Conceded late (76+)+0.044

Ahead vs level +0.43 · Behind vs level -0.02

Nantes

Current: winless 1 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-1-4-110 30%0.50.51.10.91.38
4-3-310 30%0.91.22.11.081.94
3-4-2-13 9%0.00.672.01.071.2
5-3-23 9%0.00.01.670.771.19
4-2-3-12 6%1.52.01.02.41.5

Strasbourg

Current: unbeaten 3 · winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 12

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-117 50%1.591.761.471.61.46
3-4-2-110 29%1.11.61.41.551.24
4-4-1-12 6%1.52.02.01.021.73
4-4-21 3%3.03.02.01.961.72
3-5-21 3%0.01.02.00.621.57

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

3.5Home 27% P 27%3.4Draw 28% P 28%2.1Away 45% P 45%

Double Chance

1.8Nantes or Draw 26% P 27%1.25Nantes or Strasbourg 37% P 36%1.28Draw or Strasbourg 37% P 37%

Draw No Bet

2.621 35%1.442 65%

Both Teams To Score

1.66Yes 56% P 55%2.1No 44% P 45%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.8Over 53% P 50%2.0Under 47% P 50%

Total Corners

8.0Under 6 11%2.756 - 8 32%2.629 - 11 33%5.012 - 14 17%13.0Over 14 7%

Number of Cards

4.51.83Over 50% P 47%1.83Under 50% P 53%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 25–27.5% · away 45–47.5% · 466 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home27%26%26%-0.3
Draw28%28%28%+0.2
Away45%46%46%+0.1

In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 56% · over 2.5 51%

Both teams to score · yes 52.5–55% · 3,040 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes55%54%54%-0.2

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 47.5–50% · 3,307 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.550%49%50%+1.3

Mathieu Vernice

Career
66 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.64 (4.29 yellow · 0.23 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 5.8 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.39
Cards to home side
45%

Style in Ligue 1 (5-year window · 61 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.524.06+0.8788
Fouls / match26.924.3+1.44
Fouls per card6.06.0+0.02 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.460.36+0.9288
Time added7.36.7+0.5280
First card
29' on average
Card timing
15% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
45% (league 47%)
VAR events / match
1.33

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-08 30 290 14'8
2026-02-22 40 251 21'6
2026-02-07 · Nantes 71 240 2'11
2026-01-23 10 220 72'4
2026-01-02 51 320 23'10
2025-12-07 61 330 37'7
2025-11-22 30 180 32'5
2025-09-28 80 440 43'14
2025-09-20 · Nantes 40 322 6'8
2025-08-17 · Strasbourg 40 290 31'9