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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 26

Momentum

Rio AveCFEA
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
26

Venue

Stadium
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
Capacity
12,815
Surface
grass
Attendance
2,855

Teams

Coaches
Sotiris Silaidopoulos · João Nuno
Position
15 · 13
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Fabio Verssimo

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
13.2° (feels 12.9°)
Wind
4.6
Humidity
88%

Where to watch · 1

2025/2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 342842 661848 88 WWWLW
2 Sporting CP 342572 892465 82 DDWWW
3 Benfica 3423110 742549 80 WWDDW
4 Sporting Braga 3416117 643628 59 WLDDD
5 Famalicão 3415118 422913 56 DWDDW
6 Gil Vicente 34131110 47389 50 LWDLL
7 Moreirense 3412715 3749-12 43 WLWLD
8 Arouca 3412616 4764-17 42 WLDWW
9 Vitória Guimarães 3412616 3951-12 42 WWLLL
10 Estoril 3410915 5457-3 39 LLDDL
11 Alverca 3410915 3552-17 39 LWLDL
12 Rio Ave 3481214 3557-22 36 DLDLD
13 Santa Clara 349916 3241-9 36 DWDWL
14 Nacional 349718 3745-8 34 WWLLW
15 Estrela Amadora 3461216 3856-18 30 LLLDD
16 Casa Pia 3461216 3157-26 30 LLLWD
17 Tondela 3461018 2755-28 28 LDWWL
18 AVS 3431219 2767-40 21 DDWWD
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Rio Ave

LLLDW 1W 1D 3L · 4 pts (0.8 ppg) · GF 2 GA 6 · xG 4.58–6.33 · xPts 5.99

  • W A Tondela 1–0 xG 1.28–0.62 PRT PL
  • D H Famalicão 0–0 xG 1.07–0.96 PRT PL
  • L A Porto 0–1 xG 0.48–2.19 PRT PL
  • L H Moreirense 1–2 xG 1.58–0.59 PRT PL
  • L A Sporting Braga 0–3 xG 0.17–1.96 PRT PL

Estrela Amadora

WLLDD 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 4 GA 6 · xG 4.66–7.72 · xPts 4.78

  • D H Gil Vicente 2–2 xG 1.28–2.27 PRT PL
  • D A AVS 0–0 xG 0.82–0.81 PRT PL
  • L H Tondela 0–2 xG 0.91–1.42 PRT PL
  • L A Vitória Guimarães 1–2 xG 0.64–1.56 PRT PL
  • W H Santa Clara 1–0 xG 1.01–1.65 PRT PL

All meetings · 11 matches since 2005

Rio Ave 54 draws2 Estrela Amadora

Goals 16–13 · 2.64 per match · BTTS 64% · over 2.5 54%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Rio Ave 44 draws2 Estrela Amadora

Goals 14–12 · 2.6 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 50%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Rio Ave 31 draws1 Estrela Amadora

Goals 9–6 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 60%

Recent meetings

  • D Rio Ave 3–3 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Rio Ave 2–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estrela Amadora 1–2 Rio Ave PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Rio Ave 2–0 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Estrela Amadora 1–0 Rio Ave PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Estrela Amadora 2–2 Rio Ave neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Rio Ave 2–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Estrela Amadora 2–0 Rio Ave neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • D Estrela Amadora 0–0 Rio Ave neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricRio Ave all · 34Rio Ave at home · 17Estrela Amadora all · 34Estrela Amadora away · 17
Results
Matches34173417
Points per game1.060.880.880.71
W / D / L8 / 12 / 143 / 6 / 86 / 12 / 162 / 6 / 9
Goals for / match1.031.001.121.00
Goals against / match1.681.711.651.88
Clean sheets18%18%24%18%
Failed to score38%41%44%47%
Both teams scored53%53%47%53%
Over 2.559%65%53%53%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.051.301.130.92
xG against / match1.641.591.631.74
xG difference-0.59-0.29-0.50-0.82
Finishing vs xG-0.02-0.30-0.020.08
xPts / match1.061.261.070.89
Points vs xPts0.00-0.37-0.19-0.19
Game state
Scored first35%47%26%24%
PPG when scoring first1.921.631.560.50
PPG when conceding first0.530.000.550.70
Came back from behind33%11%33%31%
Leads held50%38%50%33%
Minutes leading18%23%15%13%
Minutes level51%43%52%53%
Minutes trailing31%34%33%34%
First goal (min)42294039
First goal conceded (min)39373333
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half63%41%50%53%
Goals conceded in 2nd half56%45%55%53%
Late goals for (76'+)0.180.120.180.18
Late goals against0.320.240.180.29
Style
Possession47%48%47%43%
Shots10.412.410.88.6
On target3.94.13.63.2
Shot conversion10%8%10%12%
Shots inside box62%62%55%56%
Big chances created2.02.42.01.5
Corners4.35.13.33.1
xG from set plays31%30%41%43%
Goals from headers18%12%13%12%
Pressure index8.29.78.96.7
Dominant minutes34.840.638.430.6
Pass accuracy82%82%79%78%
Fouls12.912.214.414.5
Cards2.973.062.852.82

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Rio Ave

0–15'34
16–30'69
31–45'412
46–60'88
61–75'813
76–90'611

Estrela Amadora

0–15'59
16–30'65
31–45'811
46–60'413
61–75'912
76–90'66

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Rio Ave · 6 matches

Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.22) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.64

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.226
Early press (0-15, level)-0.336
Late push (76+, level)-0.022
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.643

Game state

When level-0.166
When behind-0.225
10 min after conceding-0.355
10 min after scoring-0.152

Situations

At home-0.303
Away-0.153
4+ days rest-0.226

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.272
v mid-tier opponents-0.012
As underdog-0.195

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.326
Conceded late (76+)+0.544

Ahead vs level -0.17 · Behind vs level -0.06

Estrela Amadora · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195

Game state

When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416

Situations

At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296

Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12

Rio Ave

Current: unbeaten 1 · winless 3 · scoring 1 · conceding 3

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
3-4-318 53%1.111.221.780.961.85
4-2-3-113 38%1.231.01.231.321.33
3-4-2-13 9%0.00.03.00.421.71

Estrela Amadora

Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-110 29%0.71.22.31.072.09
3-4-310 29%1.51.61.61.281.78
4-3-34 12%0.751.01.01.40.89
5-3-23 9%0.330.671.671.551.6
4-1-4-12 6%0.00.52.00.781.49

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.

Latest prices

bet365 · pre-match line 0.1h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

2.25Home 42% P 42%3.2Draw 29% P 30%3.3Away 29% P 28%

Double Chance

1.36Rio Ave or Draw 35% P 36%1.36Rio Ave or Estrela Amadora 35% P 35%1.53Draw or Estrela Amadora 31% P 29%

Draw No Bet

1.661 56%2.12 44%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50% P 50%1.9No 50% P 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.52.2Over 43% P 43%1.65Under 57% P 57%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.256 - 8 27%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 40–42.5% · away 27.5–30% · 815 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home42%41%42%+0.5
Draw30%30%27%-2.4
Away28%29%31%+1.9

In those fixtures: 2.4 goals a game · BTTS 47% · over 2.5 43%

Both teams to score · yes 47.5–50% · 2,898 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Yes50%49%49%+0.0

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 42.5–45% · 2,474 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.543%44%43%-1.2

Fabio Verssimo

Career
18 matches · 2 seasons
Cards / match
6.17 (6.11 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
26.9 · 4.4 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.5
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 20 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match5.75.66+0.0842
Fouls / match25.627.8-1.15
Fouls per card4.54.9-0.71 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.40.37+0.2958
Time added6.57.7-1.279
First card
24' on average
Card timing
22% in first 30' · 25% in last 15'
Cards to home side
51% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-03-01 50 332 2'6
2026-02-07 · Estrela Amadora 50 240 23'6
2026-01-24 50 280 22'4
2026-01-11 80 251 6'6
2025-12-27 50 230 49'3
2025-11-09 · Estrela Amadora 70 271 22'12
2025-11-02 60 280 19'6
2025-09-29 81 210 3'6