Rating 7.0 (87th pct) · G+A 4 + 1 (14% of team goals) · 87% of minutes
Liga Portugal · Matchweek 28
Momentum
– NacionalCFEA –
Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100
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Events
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Stats
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Season context
| Nacional | at home | Stat | league | away | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.1 #14 | – | Ball possession | 50.0 | – | 46.8 #13 |
| 12.6 #6 | – | Shots total | 12.1 | – | 10.8 #12 |
| 4.2 #7 | – | Shots on target | 4.1 | – | 3.6 #12 |
| 4.4 #9 | – | Corners | 4.7 | – | 3.3 #18 |
| 14.8 #4 | – | Fouls | 13.7 | – | 14.3 #7 |
| 1.4 #13 | – | Offsides | 1.5 | – | 1.8 #4 |
| 16.2 #5 | – | Tackles | 15.6 | – | 15.8 #9 |
| 90.6 #7 | – | Attacks | 90.3 | – | 77.0 #17 |
| 37.9 #11 | – | Dangerous attacks | 42.1 | – | 29.6 #18 |
| 332.8 #16 | – | Passes | 405.0 | – | 354.8 #14 |
| 3.2 #2 | – | Yellowcards | 2.6 | – | 3.0 #4 |
| 0.1 #10 | – | Redcards | 0.1 | – | 0.1 #2 |
| 0.7 #14 | – | Assists | 0.9 | – | 0.7 #12 |
| – #8 | – | Btts | 48.0 | – | – #8 |
| – #10 | – | Cleansheet | 29.2 | – | – #10 |
| – #13 | – | Draw | 27.1 | – | – #1 |
| 1.2 #9 | – | Expected goals | 1.3 | – | 1.1 #12 |
| -0.1 #15 | – | Expected goals difference | 0.0 | – | -0.0 #7 |
| – #8 | – | Failed to score | 29.2 | – | – #3 |
| 1.1 #11 | 1.4 | Goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 #10 |
| 1.3 #11 | 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 #6 |
| 0.3 #3 | – | Injury time goals | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #10 |
| 9.2 #6 | – | Interceptions | 8.6 | – | 9.8 #1 |
| – #2 | – | Lost | 36.4 | – | – #4 |
| 0.2 #7 | – | Penalties scored | 0.2 | – | 0.2 #5 |
| 6.8 #7 | – | Rating | 6.8 | – | 6.7 #11 |
| 3.1 #9 | – | Shots blocked | 3.2 | – | 2.7 #13 |
| 7.4 #9 | – | Shots insidebox | 7.4 | – | 5.9 #15 |
| 5.3 #6 | – | Shots off target | 4.8 | – | 4.6 #11 |
| 5.2 #5 | – | Shots outsidebox | 4.6 | – | 4.9 #8 |
| – #12 | – | Win | 36.4 | – | – #15 |
Season averages per match; # = rank in league of 18.
League this season · 2025/2026
- Played
- 306 of 306
- Goals / match
- 2.68 (home 1.5 · away 1.19)
- Home / draw / away
- 41% · 27% · 32%
- BTTS · over 2.5
- 48% · 54%
- Cards / match
- 5.01 (reds 0.13)
Trends
Waiting for trends…
Lineups
Waiting for lineups…
Bench
Key players · top 3 by influence, ranks within the current squad
Nacional · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal
Rating 6.85 (69th pct) · G+A 3 + 2 (14% of team goals) · 89% of minutes
Rating 7.04 (89th pct) · G+A 0 + 4 (11% of team goals) · 77% of minutes
Team 1.04 ppg with (27) · 0.86 without (7)
Estrela Amadora · 2025/2026 · Liga Portugal
Rating 7.04 (86th pct) · G+A 5 + 5 (26% of team goals) · 84% of minutes
Rating 6.73 (41th pct) · G+A 3 + 2 (13% of team goals) · 55% of minutes
Team 0.8 ppg with (20) · 1.0 without (14)
Rating 7.1 (92th pct) · G+A 2 + 0 (5% of team goals) · 26% of minutes
Team 0.44 ppg with (9) · 1.04 without (25)
Absences
Nacional
- injury Ivanildo Fernandes defender · Unknown Injury · 42 missed
- injury Ulisses defender · Unknown Injury · 34 missed
Estrela Amadora
- injury Robinho #8 key player midfielder · Unknown Injury · 41 missed
Commentary
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In-Play Odds
Waiting for in-play odds…
Competition
- Stage
- Regular Season
- Round
- 28
Venue
- Stadium
- Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
- Capacity
- 5,132
- Surface
- grass
- Attendance
- 2,099
Teams
- Coaches
- Tiago Carvalho Margarido · João Nuno
- Position
- 16 · 14
- Formation
- 4-3-3 · 4-3-3
Referee
João António Ferreira Gonçalves
Weather
- Conditions
- clear sky
- Temperature
- 24.4° (feels 24.0°)
- Wind
- 3.6
- Humidity
- 39%
Where to watch · 1
- International Bet365
2025/2026
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto |
34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66 | 18 | 48 | 88 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP |
34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 82 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Benfica |
34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74 | 25 | 49 | 80 | WWDDW |
| 4 |  Sporting Braga |
34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 59 | WLDDD |
| 5 |  Famalicão |
34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 56 | DWDDW |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente |
34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 50 | LWDLL |
| 7 |  Moreirense |
34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 | WLWLD |
| 8 |  Arouca |
34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 42 | WLDWW |
| 9 |  Vitória Guimarães |
34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 42 | WWLLL |
| 10 |  Estoril |
34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 39 | LLDDL |
| 11 |  Alverca |
34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 39 | LWLDL |
| 12 |  Rio Ave |
34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 36 | DLDLD |
| 13 |  Santa Clara |
34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 36 | DWDWL |
| 14 |  Nacional |
34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 34 | WWLLW |
| 15 |  Estrela Amadora |
34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 30 | LLLDD |
| 16 |  Casa Pia |
34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 | LLLWD |
| 17 |  Tondela |
34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 28 | LDWWL |
| 18 |  AVS |
34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 21 | DDWWD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto |
17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 6 | 27 | 45 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Sporting CP |
17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 11 | 40 | 41 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Benfica |
17 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 41 | 13 | 28 | 39 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Famalicão |
17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 31 | DWDDW |
| 5 | Sporting Braga |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 30 | WLDDD |
| 6 | Gil Vicente |
17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 30 | LWDLL |
| 7 | Vitória Guimarães |
17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 28 | WWLLL |
| 8 | Moreirense |
17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 27 | WLWLD |
| 9 | Alverca |
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 26 | LWLDL |
| 10 | Arouca |
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 25 | WLDWW |
| 11 | Estoril |
17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 23 | LLDDL |
| 12 | Santa Clara |
17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 23 | DWDWL |
| 13 | Nacional |
17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 20 | WWLLW |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora |
17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 18 | LLLDD |
| 15 | Casa Pia |
17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 15 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Rio Ave |
17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 15 | DLDLD |
| 17 | Tondela |
17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 | LDWWL |
| 18 | AVS |
17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 12 | DDWWD |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto |
17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 43 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Sporting CP |
17 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 38 | 13 | 25 | 41 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Benfica |
17 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 41 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Sporting Braga |
17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 29 | WLDDD |
| 5 | Famalicão |
17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 25 | DWDDW |
| 6 | Rio Ave |
17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 21 | DLDLD |
| 7 | Gil Vicente |
17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 8 | Arouca |
17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 17 | WLDWW |
| 9 | Estoril |
17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 16 | LLDDL |
| 10 | Moreirense |
17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 16 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Casa Pia |
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 15 | LLLWD |
| 12 | Tondela |
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 34 | -20 | 15 | LDWWL |
| 13 | Nacional |
17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 14 | WWLLW |
| 14 | Vitória Guimarães |
17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 14 | WWLLL |
| 15 | Santa Clara |
17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 13 | DWDWL |
| 16 | Alverca |
17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Estrela Amadora |
17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 | LLLDD |
| 18 | AVS |
17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 40 | -28 | 9 | DDWWD |
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
- UEFA Europa League
- UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
- Relegation Play-off
- Relegation
Nacional
LLDLL 0W 1D 4L · 1 pts (0.2 ppg) · GF 2 GA 8 · xG 5.48–9.38 · xPts 4.78
- L
A
Famalicão
0–1
xG 0.47–1.99
PRT PL
- L
H
Estoril
0–1
xG 0.89–1.39
PRT PL
- D
A
Moreirense
1–1
xG 1.35–0.98
PRT PL
- L
H
Sporting Braga
1–2
xG 1.18–3.33
PRT PL
- L
A
Arouca
0–3
xG 1.6–1.69
PRT PL
LWLDLLLDLL 1W 2D 7L · 5 pts (0.5 ppg) · GF 8 GA 13 · xG 10.65–14.51 · xPts 11.73
- L
A
Famalicão
0–1
xG 0.47–1.99
PRT PL
- L
H
Estoril
0–1
xG 0.89–1.39
PRT PL
- D
A
Moreirense
1–1
xG 1.35–0.98
PRT PL
- L
H
Sporting Braga
1–2
xG 1.18–3.33
PRT PL
- L
A
Arouca
0–3
xG 1.6–1.69
PRT PL
- L
H
Porto
0–1
xG 0.77–0.69
PRT PL
- D
H
Casa Pia
0–0
xG 1.04–0.77
PRT PL
- L
A
Sporting CP
1–2
xG 0.82–1.99
PRT PL
- W
H
Rio Ave
4–0
xG 1.23–0.8
PRT PL
- L
A
Gil Vicente
1–2
xG 1.32–0.89
PRT PL
Estrela Amadora
LDDLW 1W 2D 2L · 5 pts (1.0 ppg) · GF 7 GA 6 · xG 7.71–7.39 · xPts 6.79
- W
H
Casa Pia
4–0
xG 3.17–0.42
PRT PL
- L
A
Rio Ave
1–2
xG 1.53–2.47
PRT PL
- D
H
Gil Vicente
2–2
xG 1.28–2.27
PRT PL
- D
A
AVS
0–0
xG 0.82–0.81
PRT PL
- L
H
Tondela
0–2
xG 0.91–1.42
PRT PL
LLDWLLDDLW 2W 3D 5L · 9 pts (0.9 ppg) · GF 10 GA 18 · xG 10.65–15.85 · xPts 10.24
- W
H
Casa Pia
4–0
xG 3.17–0.42
PRT PL
- L
A
Rio Ave
1–2
xG 1.53–2.47
PRT PL
- D
H
Gil Vicente
2–2
xG 1.28–2.27
PRT PL
- D
A
AVS
0–0
xG 0.82–0.81
PRT PL
- L
H
Tondela
0–2
xG 0.91–1.42
PRT PL
- L
A
Vitória Guimarães
1–2
xG 0.64–1.56
PRT PL
- W
H
Santa Clara
1–0
xG 1.01–1.65
PRT PL
- D
A
Alverca
1–1
xG 1.0–0.87
PRT PL
- L
A
Benfica
0–4
xG 0.12–2.13
PRT PL
- L
H
Estoril
0–5
xG 0.17–2.24
PRT PL
All meetings · 13 matches since 2005
Goals 11–14 · 1.92 per match · BTTS 31% · over 2.5 23%
Last 10 · 10 matches
Goals 8–10 · 1.8 per match · BTTS 30% · over 2.5 20%
Last 5 · 5 matches
Goals 5–7 · 2.4 per match · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 20%
Recent meetings
- L Nacional 2–3 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 2–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Estrela Amadora 1–1 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Nacional 0–1 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Estrela Amadora 2–0 Nacional PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Estrela Amadora 1–0 Nacional neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- L Nacional 1–2 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Estrela Amadora 0–1 Nacional neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
- D Nacional 0–0 Estrela Amadora PRT PL · Regular Season
- W Nacional 1–0 Estrela Amadora neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
| Metric | Nacional all · 34 | Nacional at home · 17 | Estrela Amadora all · 34 | Estrela Amadora away · 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 34 | 17 | 34 | 17 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.18 | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| W / D / L | 9 / 7 / 18 | 6 / 2 / 9 | 6 / 12 / 16 | 2 / 6 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.09 | 1.35 | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.32 | 1.35 | 1.65 | 1.88 |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 29% | 24% | 18% |
| Failed to score | 32% | 29% | 44% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.22 | 1.31 | 1.13 | 0.92 |
| xG against / match | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.74 |
| xG difference | -0.41 | -0.32 | -0.50 | -0.82 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.13 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.08 |
| xPts / match | 1.18 | 1.24 | 1.07 | 0.89 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.18 | -0.07 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 38% | 47% | 26% | 24% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.77 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 0.50 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| Came back from behind | 25% | 25% | 33% | 31% |
| Leads held | 56% | 54% | 50% | 33% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 22% | 15% | 13% |
| Minutes level | 53% | 53% | 52% | 53% |
| Minutes trailing | 27% | 24% | 33% | 34% |
| First goal (min) | 44 | 40 | 40 | 39 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 42 | 38 | 33 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 60% | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 60% | 61% | 55% | 53% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Late goals against | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 46% | 48% | 47% | 43% |
| Shots | 12.6 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 8.6 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 11% | 10% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 58% | 59% | 55% | 56% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| xG from set plays | 41% | 54% | 41% | 43% |
| Goals from headers | 19% | 17% | 13% | 12% |
| Pressure index | 8.3 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 6.7 |
| Dominant minutes | 36.7 | 41.1 | 38.4 | 30.6 |
| Pass accuracy | 76% | 76% | 79% | 78% |
| Fouls | 14.9 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 14.5 |
| Cards | 3.35 | 3.76 | 2.85 | 2.82 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'48
16–30'43
31–45'77
46–60'67
61–75'88
76–90'812
Estrela Amadora
0–15'59
16–30'65
31–45'811
46–60'413
61–75'912
76–90'66
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 6 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.24) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.33
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.246
Early press (0-15, level)-0.176
Late push (76+, level)-0.192
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.284
Game state
When ahead-0.492
When level-0.226
When behind-0.185
10 min after conceding-0.325
10 min after scoring+0.334
Situations
At home-0.193
Away-0.283
4+ days rest-0.246
Opposition
v mid-tier opponents-0.162
v bottom-tier opponents-0.262
Evenly matched-0.193
As underdog-0.283
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.126
Conceded when ahead+0.192
Conceded late (76+)-0.136
Ahead vs level -0.27 · Behind vs level +0.03
Estrela Amadora · 6 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.03) · stands out: early press (0-15, level) -0.49
Tempo
Overall intensity+0.036
Early press (0-15, level)-0.496
Late push (76+, level)+0.195
Game state
When ahead+0.135
When level-0.046
When behind+0.085
10 min after conceding-0.046
10 min after scoring+0.416
Situations
At home-0.023
Away+0.083
4+ days rest+0.036
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.102
v bottom-tier opponents-0.062
Evenly matched+0.233
As underdog-0.173
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded when ahead-0.205
Conceded late (76+)-0.296
Ahead vs level +0.18 · Behind vs level +0.12
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 18 53% | 1.0 | 0.83 | 1.11 | 1.0 | 1.73 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 9 26% | 0.89 | 1.22 | 1.56 | 1.32 | 1.58 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 1.33 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.22 | 1.28 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 3% | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.81 | 2.04 |
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 29% | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.07 | 2.09 |
| 3-4-3 | 10 29% | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.28 | 1.78 |
| 4-3-3 | 4 12% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.89 |
| 5-3-2 | 3 9% | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.55 | 1.6 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.78 | 1.49 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 10 | Nacional at home · 10 | Estrela Amadora all · 10 | Estrela Amadora away · 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| W / D / L | 3 / 1 / 6 | 4 / 0 / 6 | 2 / 6 / 2 | 1 / 4 / 5 |
| Goals for / match | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 90% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 90% | 70% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| xG against / match | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| xG difference | -0.53 | -0.10 | -0.29 | -0.06 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.04 | -0.07 | 0.55 | 0.00 |
| xPts / match | 1.10 | 1.35 | 1.20 | 1.32 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.10 | -0.16 | 0.00 | -0.62 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 50% | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.80 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.20 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 0.75 |
| Came back from behind | 14% | 0% | 75% | 38% |
| Leads held | 60% | 67% | 29% | 17% |
| Minutes leading | 19% | 24% | 20% | 21% |
| Minutes level | 45% | 48% | 52% | 50% |
| Minutes trailing | 36% | 28% | 28% | 30% |
| First goal (min) | 40 | 44 | 43 | 30 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 26 | 30 | 26 | 34 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 50% | 75% | 68% | 57% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 33% | 42% | 58% | 68% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Late goals against | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 50% | 51% | 43% | 49% |
| Shots | 12.2 | 13.8 | 10.7 | 11.9 |
| On target | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Shot conversion | 10% | 9% | 18% | 12% |
| Shots inside box | 57% | 59% | 71% | 65% |
| Big chances created | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| xG from set plays | 30% | 27% | 30% | 38% |
| Goals from headers | 33% | 17% | 21% | 14% |
| Pressure index | 9.1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 11.3 |
| Dominant minutes | 42.0 | 44.6 | 39.2 | 46.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 78% | 79% | 80% |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.7 |
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'21
16–30'14
31–45'35
46–60'01
61–75'32
76–90'32
Estrela Amadora
0–15'24
16–30'11
31–45'33
46–60'44
61–75'53
76–90'44
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 1.67 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 40% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 4-3-3 | 1 10% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.13 | 1.35 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.25 | 1.5 |
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 6 60% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 1.68 |
| 4-3-3 | 2 20% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.64 | 1.03 |
| 3-4-3 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.55 | 2.17 |
| 4-4-2 | 1 10% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.29 | 2.07 |
| Metric | Nacional all · 35 | Nacional at home · 18 | Estrela Amadora all · 35 | Estrela Amadora away · 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Matches | 35 | 18 | 35 | 18 |
| Points per game | 0.97 | 1.28 | 1.06 | 0.83 |
| W / D / L | 9 / 7 / 19 | 7 / 2 / 9 | 8 / 13 / 14 | 3 / 6 / 9 |
| Goals for / match | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.37 | 1.28 | 1.77 | 2.11 |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 33% | 20% | 11% |
| Failed to score | 31% | 22% | 34% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 50% | 57% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 56% | 66% | 67% |
| Expected goals | ||||
| xG for / match | 1.26 | 1.41 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| xG against / match | 1.67 | 1.57 | 1.63 | 1.72 |
| xG difference | -0.41 | -0.16 | -0.44 | -0.58 |
| Finishing vs xG | -0.12 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| xPts / match | 1.19 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Points vs xPts | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.22 |
| Game state | ||||
| Scored first | 37% | 50% | 31% | 33% |
| PPG when scoring first | 1.77 | 1.67 | 1.45 | 0.67 |
| PPG when conceding first | 0.48 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Came back from behind | 24% | 25% | 44% | 36% |
| Leads held | 56% | 58% | 47% | 33% |
| Minutes leading | 18% | 22% | 18% | 16% |
| Minutes level | 55% | 55% | 49% | 51% |
| Minutes trailing | 28% | 23% | 33% | 33% |
| First goal (min) | 44 | 44 | 40 | 36 |
| First goal conceded (min) | 40 | 37 | 30 | 33 |
| Timing | ||||
| Goals scored in 2nd half | 62% | 74% | 57% | 58% |
| Goals conceded in 2nd half | 54% | 52% | 60% | 58% |
| Late goals for (76'+) | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Late goals against | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| Style | ||||
| Possession | 48% | 50% | 47% | 46% |
| Shots | 12.7 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 9.9 |
| On target | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Shot conversion | 9% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
| Shots inside box | 58% | 57% | 59% | 61% |
| Big chances created | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| xG from set plays | 39% | 44% | 36% | 40% |
| Goals from headers | 18% | 18% | 16% | 17% |
| Pressure index | 9.0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 8.4 |
| Dominant minutes | 39.7 | 44.4 | 39.9 | 36.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 78% | 80% | 79% |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 14.0 |
| Cards | 2.89 | 3.33 | 2.83 | 2.94 |
Goal timing for / against per 15 min
Nacional
0–15'48
16–30'45
31–45'79
46–60'67
61–75'109
76–90'910
Estrela Amadora
0–15'512
16–30'75
31–45'98
46–60'816
61–75'1214
76–90'87
Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units
Nacional · 35 matches
Pressure below an average side in the same situations (-0.15) · stands out: v top-tier opponents -0.43
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1535
Early press (0-15, level)+0.0035
Late push (76+, level)-0.1215
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.1718
Game state
When ahead-0.3716
When level-0.1035
When behind-0.1225
10 min after conceding-0.1827
10 min after scoring+0.0424
Situations
With ten men-0.105
Against ten men-0.073
At home-0.1318
Away-0.1817
4+ days rest-0.1535
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.437
v mid-tier opponents-0.209
v bottom-tier opponents-0.0411
As favourite-0.056
Evenly matched-0.0515
As underdog-0.3114
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2735
Conceded when ahead+0.4616
Conceded late (76+)+0.0533
Ahead vs level -0.26 · Behind vs level -0.01
Estrela Amadora · 35 matches
Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.10) · stands out: against ten men +0.42
Tempo
Overall intensity-0.1035
Early press (0-15, level)-0.1835
Late push (76+, level)-0.0715
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.0813
Game state
When ahead+0.0017
When level-0.1935
When behind-0.0125
10 min after conceding-0.2828
10 min after scoring+0.2123
Situations
With ten men-0.204
Against ten men+0.424
At home-0.1017
Away-0.1018
4+ days rest-0.1035
Opposition
v top-tier opponents-0.299
v mid-tier opponents-0.257
v bottom-tier opponents+0.0411
As favourite+0.352
Evenly matched+0.1012
As underdog-0.2421
Conceded
Pressure conceded+0.2235
Conceded when ahead+0.1317
Conceded late (76+)+0.0330
Ahead vs level +0.19 · Behind vs level +0.18
Nacional
Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 4
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3-3 | 13 37% | 1.08 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 1.07 | 1.75 |
| 4-2-3-1 | 10 29% | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| 3-4-2-1 | 4 11% | 0.75 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 2.06 |
| 5-4-1 | 3 9% | 1.33 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| 3-4-3 | 2 6% | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.24 | 1.15 |
Estrela Amadora
Current: unbeaten 8 · winless 1 · scoring 7 · conceding 7
| Formation | Use | PPG | GF | GA | xG | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | 14 40% | 0.93 | 1.5 | 2.21 | 1.16 | 1.92 |
| 3-4-3 | 10 29% | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.28 | 1.78 |
| 4-3-3 | 6 17% | 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.33 | 1.48 | 0.94 |
| 4-1-4-1 | 2 6% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.78 | 1.49 |
| 3-1-4-2 | 2 6% | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.91 | 0.76 |
Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.
Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off
Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.
No pre-match movement recorded for this fixture.
Latest prices
bet365 · pre-match line -2.2h before kick-off · recorded after kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.
Fulltime Result
2.05Home 46% P 46%3.4Draw 28% P 27%3.7Away 26% P 27%
Double Chance
1.28Nacional or Draw 37%1.3Nacional or Estrela Amadora 36%1.7Draw or Estrela Amadora 28%
Draw No Bet
1.441 65%2.622 35%
Both Teams To Score
1.7Yes 55%2.05No 45%
Goals Over/Under
2.51.85Over 51% P 50%1.95Under 49% P 50%
Total Corners
11.0Under 6 8%3.46 - 8 26%2.69 - 11 34%4.012 - 14 22%9.0Over 14 10%
Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026
Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.
Match result · home 45–47.5% · away 25–27.5% · 853 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 46% | 46% | 44% | -1.8 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 30% | +1.8 |
| Away | 27% | 26% | 26% | +0.0 |
In those fixtures: 2.6 goals a game · BTTS 55% · over 2.5 48%
Goals over/under 2.5 · over 50–52.5% · 3,575 fixtures
| This match | Band | Actual | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 51% | 51% | -0.1 |
João António Ferreira Gonçalves
- Career
- 75 matches · 6 seasons
- Cards / match
- 5.87 (5.36 yellow · 0.23 red)
- Fouls / match
- 26.8 · 4.6 fouls per card
- Penalties / match
- 0.41
- Cards to home side
- 51%
Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 69 matches)
| Metric | Referee | League | vs peers | pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 5.93 | 5.66 | +0.37 | 55 |
| Fouls / match | 27.0 | 27.9 | -0.44 | |
| Fouls per card | 4.6 | 4.9 | -0.55 (+ = lenient) | |
| Penalties / match | 0.39 | 0.37 | +0.22 | 52 |
| Time added | 8.7 | 7.7 | +1.30 | 94 |
- First card
- 26' on average
- Card timing
- 17% in first 30' · 36% in last 15'
- Cards to home side
- 51% (league 48%)
- VAR events / match
- 1.15
Recent matches
| Date | Y | R | Fouls | Pens | 1st card | +min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 34' | 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 12' | 8 |
| 2026-03-02 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 39' | 5 |
| 2026-01-18 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 32' | 10 |
| 2026-01-03 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19' | 9 |
| 2025-12-28 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 15' | 11 |
| 2025-12-21 · Nacional | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 57' | 10 |
| 2025-12-07 · Estrela Amadora | 6 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 28' | 12 |
| 2025-11-08 | 13 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 1' | 8 |
| 2025-10-27 | 5 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 43' | 15 |