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Championship · Matchweek 8

Momentum

Norwich CityBOL
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
8

Venue

Stadium
Carrow Road, Norwich
Capacity
27,244
Surface
grass

Teams

Coaches
Philippe Clement · Steven Schumacher
Position
14 · 20
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Tom Nield

Weather

Conditions
sky is clear
Temperature
17.1° (feels 16.2°)
Wind
6.5
Humidity
52%

Where to watch · 5

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 West Ham United 7421 20911 14 DWWWW
2 Swansea City 7421 1156 14 WWDLW
3 Middlesbrough 7421 14104 14 WDWWD
4 West Bromwich Albion 7421 1073 14 LDWWD
5 Queens Park Rangers 7331 853 12 WWLDD
6 Charlton Athletic 7331 67-1 12 WDLDD
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6321 14104 11 WWLDW
8 Lincoln City 7322 660 11 WDDWW
9 Southampton (-4) 7421 18810 10 WDDWW
10 Birmingham City 7241 1091 10 WDDLW
11 Millwall 7313 13130 10 LLWLD
12 Stoke City 7313 11110 10 LWWDW
13 Bristol City 7313 1012-2 10 WWWLL
14 Norwich City 7304 13130 9 WLWWL
15 Sheffield United 7232 89-1 9 DWLWL
16 Blackburn Rovers 7223 10100 8 LDLLW
17 Watford 7223 79-2 8 DLLWL
18 Portsmouth 6213 78-1 7 WLLWD
19 Wrexham 7142 711-4 7 LWDDL
20 Bolton Wanderers 7214 712-5 7 LLLLW
21 Cardiff City 7043 711-4 4 DLLDL
22 Derby County 7115 613-7 4 LWLLL
23 Preston North End 7106 613-7 3 LLWLL
24 Burnley 7034 816-8 3 LDLDL
  • Promotion
  • Promotion Play-off
  • Relegation

Norwich City

WLWWL 3W 0D 2L · 9 pts (1.8 ppg) · GF 12 GA 8 · xG 7.84–6.3 · xPts 8.07

  • L A Middlesbrough 3–4 xG 1.64–2.1 UK CHAMP
  • W H Birmingham City 2–1 xG 1.13–1.94 UK CHAMP
  • W A Sheffield United 3–1 xG 1.72–0.88 UK CHAMP
  • L A Stoke City 0–1 xG 1.03–0.25 UK CHAMP
  • W H Burnley 4–1 xG 2.33–1.13 UK CHAMP

Bolton Wanderers

LLLLW 1W 0D 4L · 3 pts (0.6 ppg) · GF 5 GA 11 · xG 7.26–10.22 · xPts 5.3

  • W H Cardiff City 1–0 xG 0.54–2.34 UK CHAMP
  • L H West Ham United 2–3 xG 1.73–2.46 UK CHAMP
  • L A Millwall 0–4 xG 0.99–2.22 UK CHAMP
  • L A Sheffield United 2–3 xG 1.97–1.96 UK CHAMP
  • L H Lincoln City 0–1 xG 2.03–1.25 UK CHAMP

first meeting No meetings in the last five years

All-time since 2004: 10 meetings · Norwich City 7 · draws 1 · Bolton Wanderers 2

  • Norwich City unbeaten in the last 3 meetings
  • Norwich City haven't beaten Bolton Wanderers since Feb 2019
  • Bolton Wanderers haven't beaten Norwich City since Nov 2017

KickoffDNA model engine-only-1.1.0 · day before ·

Match result

63.3%Norwich City P 64%20.2%Draw P 20%16.5%Bolton Wanderers P 16%

Over / under 2.5

61.2%Over 2.5 P 64%38.8%Under 2.5 P 36%

Both teams to score

56.4%Yes43.6%No

Expected

Norwich City goals
2.15 (0–4)
Bolton Wanderers goals
1.01 (0–2)
Corners
10.53 (6–15)
Cards
4.23 (2–7)

Provider model (SportMonks)

Match result

50.2%Norwich City23.7%Draw26.0%Bolton Wanderers

Over / under 2.5

56.7%Over 2.543.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.5%Yes42.5%No

Model probabilities are independent of the market; bookmaker figures are shown only as a benchmark.

All meetings · 10 matches since 2004

Norwich City 71 draws2 Bolton Wanderers

Goals 19–10 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Norwich City 71 draws2 Bolton Wanderers

Goals 19–10 · 2.9 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Norwich City 31 draws1 Bolton Wanderers

Goals 10–5 · 3.0 per match · BTTS 60% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • W Bolton Wanderers 0–4 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Norwich City 3–2 Bolton Wanderers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • D Norwich City 0–0 Bolton Wanderers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • L Bolton Wanderers 2–1 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Norwich City UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Norwich City 2–1 Bolton Wanderers UK CHAMP · Regular Season
  • W Norwich City 2–0 Bolton Wanderers UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Norwich City UK PL · Regular Season
  • L Bolton Wanderers 1–0 Norwich City UK PL · Regular Season
  • W Norwich City 3–2 Bolton Wanderers UK PL · Regular Season
MetricNorwich City all · 7Norwich City at home · 3Bolton Wanderers all · 7Bolton Wanderers away · 3
Results
Matches77
Points per game1.291.00
W / D / L3 / 0 / 42 / 1 / 4
Goals for / match1.861.00
Goals against / match1.861.71
Clean sheets0%29%
Failed to score29%43%
Both teams scored71%43%
Over 2.586%57%
Expected goals
xG for / match1.631.16
xG against / match1.641.93
xG difference-0.01-0.76
Finishing vs xG0.23-0.16
xPts / match1.470.94
Points vs xPts-0.180.06
Game state
Scored first57%43%
PPG when scoring first2.252.00
PPG when conceding first0.000.00
Came back from behind0%0%
Leads held75%50%
Minutes leading34%13%
Minutes level29%72%
Minutes trailing37%15%
First goal (min)2631
First goal conceded (min)3241
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half38%29%
Goals conceded in 2nd half46%67%
Late goals for (76'+)0.140.14
Late goals against0.430.86
Style
Possession52%53%
Shots15.612.7
On target5.74.7
Shot conversion12%8%
Shots inside box61%68%
Big chances created3.11.4
Corners4.95.9
xG from set plays13%28%
Goals from headers8%33%
Pressure index9.610.9
Dominant minutes45.449.9
Pass accuracy79%79%
Fouls11.49.3
Cards3.001.86

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Norwich City

0–15'43
16–30'23
31–45'21
46–60'01
61–75'42
76–90'13

Bolton Wanderers

0–15'22
16–30'30
31–45'02
46–60'00
61–75'12
76–90'16

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Norwich City · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.02) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.66

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.027
Early press (0-15, level)-0.197
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.364

Game state

When ahead+0.124
When level-0.147
When behind-0.054
10 min after conceding-0.277
10 min after scoring+0.665

Situations

At home-0.213
Away+0.114
3 days rest or fewer+0.072
4+ days rest-0.065

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.025
v bottom-tier opponents-0.142
As favourite-0.144
Evenly matched+0.142

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.027
Conceded when ahead-0.134
Conceded late (76+)-0.146

Congested vs rested +0.14 · Ahead vs level +0.27 · Behind vs level +0.10

Bolton Wanderers · 7 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.00) · stands out: late chase (76+, behind) -0.23

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.007
Early press (0-15, level)-0.137
Late push (76+, level)-0.124
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.234

Game state

When ahead+0.084
When level+0.017
When behind-0.134
10 min after conceding-0.205
10 min after scoring+0.164

Situations

At home-0.084
Away+0.103
3 days rest or fewer+0.132
4+ days rest-0.065

Opposition

v mid-tier opponents+0.064
v bottom-tier opponents-0.122
Evenly matched-0.103
As underdog+0.074

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.137
Conceded when ahead-0.164
Conceded late (76+)-0.077

Congested vs rested +0.19 · Ahead vs level +0.07 · Behind vs level -0.14

Norwich City

Current: winless 1 · scoring 3 · conceding 14

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 100%1.291.861.861.631.64

Bolton Wanderers

Current: unbeaten 1 · wins 1 · scoring 2 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-17 100%1.01.01.711.161.93

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.0d before kick-off · 89 snapshots · last 31.5h before kick-off · biggest step: home +1.2 pts at 44.5h

1.47Home 64% ▲ +2.5 ptsopened 1.534.76Draw 20% · -0.9 ptsopened 4.555.92Away 16% ▼ -1.5 ptsopened 5.41
4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 20%30%40%50%60%

Home Draw Away consensus of 7 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.47 ▲ +2.54.76 · -0.95.92 ▼ -1.531.5h
bet3651.5 ▲ +2.04.5 ▼ -2.35.5 · +0.231.5h
Betfair1.44 ▲ +2.54.75 ▼ -1.16.0 ▼ -1.431.5h
BetVictor1.45 ▲ +4.64.75 ▼ -1.86.5 ▼ -2.831.5h
Coral1.5 ▲ +3.34.6 ▼ -1.55.75 ▼ -1.831.5h
Ladbrokes1.5 ▲ +4.24.6 ▼ -1.85.75 ▼ -2.431.5h
WilliamHill1.44 ▲ +4.34.4 ▼ -2.45.5 ▼ -1.931.5h

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 31.5h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.5Home 62% P 64%4.5Draw 21% P 20%5.5Away 17% P 16%

Double Chance

1.14Norwich or Draw 41%1.18Norwich or Bolton 40%2.5Draw or Bolton 19%

Draw No Bet

1.21 78%4.332 22%

Both Teams To Score

1.61Yes 58%2.2No 42%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.53Over 62% P 64%2.5Under 38% P 36%

Total Corners

13.0Under 6 7%3.56 - 8 25%2.629 - 11 34%3.7512 - 14 23%8.0Over 14 11%

Number of Cards

3.52.1Over 44% P 43%1.66Under 56% P 57%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 62.5–65% · away 15–17.5% · 338 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home64%63%64%+0.7
Draw20%21%19%-2.0
Away16%16%17%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 58% · over 2.5 62%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.564%64%63%-0.4

Tom Nield

Career
79 matches · 11 seasons
Cards / match
3.9 (3.86 yellow · 0.03 red)
Fouls / match
23.7 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.17
Cards to home side
44%

Style in Championship (5-year window · 62 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.114.05+0.1057
Fouls / match23.321.8+1.27
Fouls per card5.85.4+0.29 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.140.17-0.4720
Time added7.67.2+0.4463
First card
37' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
43% (league 45%)

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-09-09 20 180 45'6
2026-08-29 50 281 15'5
2026-08-22 40 240 24'6
2026-05-02 70 240 18'12
2026-04-25 30 200 2'13
2026-04-18 40 200 19'6
2026-04-03 20 271 29'10
2026-03-13 20 200 62'9
2026-03-10 50 241 36'5
2026-03-07 20 140 83'5