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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 5

Momentum

MarítimoBenfica
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
5

Venue

Stadium
Campo da Imaculada Conceição, Ilha da Madeira
Capacity
2,000
Attendance
10,103

Teams

Coaches
Jordan van der Gaag · Marco Da Silva
Position
7 · 5
Formation
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1

Referee

Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
24.5° (feels 25.0°)
Wind
5.1
Humidity
76%

Where to watch · 4

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 6600 15213 18 WWWWW
2 Benfica 6510 21417 16 WWWWW
3 Sporting CP 6420 1569 14 WWWWD
4 Santa Clara 6420 1147 14 WWDWW
5 Arouca 6312 853 10 WLWDL
6 Estrela Amadora 6240 14122 10 DWDWD
7 Sporting Braga 5311 752 10 DWWLW
8 Academico Viseu 6222 79-2 8 LDLWW
9 Gil Vicente 5212 440 7 WWDLL
10 Marítimo 6213 711-4 7 WDLLL
11 Moreirense 6213 713-6 7 LWLLW
12 Alverca 6123 811-3 5 DLDLW
13 Famalicão 6042 57-2 4 LLDDD
14 Vitória Guimarães 6114 47-3 4 LWLDL
15 Nacional 6114 711-4 4 WLLLL
16 Rio Ave 6114 514-9 4 LWLLD
17 Estoril 6024 28-6 2 LLLDL
18 Casa Pia 6015 115-14 1 LLLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Marítimo

WWDL 2W 1D 1L · 7 pts (1.75 ppg) · GF 6 GA 5 · xG 4.96–3.94 · xPts 6.24

  • L A Arouca 1–2 xG 0.98–1.35 PRT PL
  • D H Academico Viseu 2–2 xG 1.52–1.28 PRT PL
  • W A Famalicão 2–1 xG 1.25–0.81 PRT PL
  • W H Casa Pia 1–0 xG 1.21–0.5 PRT PL

Benfica

DWWWW 4W 1D 0L · 13 pts (2.6 ppg) · GF 16 GA 4 · xG 12.4–2.27 · xPts 12.16

  • W H Estoril 2–1 xG 1.96–0.34 PRT PL
  • W A AGF 3–1 xG 1.61–0.56 UEFA EL
  • W H AGF 3–1 xG 5.04–0.46 UEFA EL
  • W A Casa Pia 7–0 xG 2.4–0.26 PRT PL
  • D A Hearts 1–1 xG 1.39–0.66 UEFA EL

No predictions from model engine-only-1.1.0 (available: engine-only-1.0.0, engine-only-1.0.1).

All meetings · 37 matches since 2005

Marítimo 34 draws30 Benfica

Goals 22–102 · 3.35 per match · BTTS 43% · over 2.5 68%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Marítimo 10 draws9 Benfica

Goals 4–32 · 3.6 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 70%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Marítimo 00 draws5 Benfica

Goals 1–19 · 4.0 per match · BTTS 20% · over 2.5 80%

Recent meetings

  • L Marítimo 0–3 Benfica PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Marítimo 0–3 Benfica neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Benfica 5–0 Marítimo PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Marítimo 0–1 Benfica PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Benfica 7–1 Marítimo PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Benfica 1–0 Marítimo PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Marítimo 1–2 Benfica neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Marítimo 2–0 Benfica neutral PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Benfica 4–0 Marítimo PRT PL · Regular Season
  • L Benfica 6–0 Marítimo PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricMarítimo all · 6Marítimo at home · 3Benfica all · 6Benfica away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game1.172.67
W / D / L2 / 1 / 35 / 1 / 0
Goals for / match1.173.50
Goals against / match1.830.67
Clean sheets17%50%
Failed to score17%0%
Both teams scored67%50%
Over 2.583%100%
Expected goals
xG for / match0.992.50
xG against / match1.200.51
xG difference-0.211.99
Finishing vs xG0.171.00
xPts / match1.222.54
Points vs xPts-0.050.12
Game state
Scored first33%83%
PPG when scoring first1.502.60
PPG when conceding first1.003.00
Came back from behind40%100%
Leads held67%83%
Minutes leading8%60%
Minutes level42%36%
Minutes trailing49%4%
First goal (min)5222
First goal conceded (min)2048
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half71%67%
Goals conceded in 2nd half36%75%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.50
Late goals against0.330.17
Style
Possession46%65%
Shots10.520.3
On target3.27.8
Shot conversion11%17%
Shots inside box70%74%
Big chances created1.73.7
Corners3.08.0
xG from set plays48%31%
Goals from headers29%5%
Pressure index11.124.5
Dominant minutes49.075.8
Pass accuracy79%88%
Fouls15.813.0
Cards2.001.50

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Marítimo

0–15'02
16–30'23
31–45'02
46–60'01
61–75'21
76–90'32

Benfica

0–15'41
16–30'10
31–45'20
46–60'81
61–75'31
76–90'31

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Marítimo · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (+0.06) · stands out: 10 min after scoring +0.63

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.066
Early press (0-15, level)+0.366
Late push (76+, level)-0.352
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.144

Game state

When ahead+0.033
When level+0.066
When behind+0.075
10 min after conceding-0.435
10 min after scoring+0.635

Situations

At home+0.123
Away+0.013
4+ days rest+0.066

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.134
As favourite+0.182
As underdog-0.153

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.086
Conceded when ahead+0.193
Conceded late (76+)-0.216

Ahead vs level -0.02 · Behind vs level +0.02

Benfica · 13 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.55) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.91

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.5513
Early press (0-15, level)+0.3313
Late push (76+, level)+0.914
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.122

Game state

When ahead+0.3911
When level+0.7513
When behind+0.803
10 min after conceding+0.117
10 min after scoring+0.5513

Situations

At home+0.686
Away+0.437
3 days rest or fewer+0.473
4+ days rest+0.5810

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.863
As favourite+0.6112

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.3113
Conceded when ahead-0.2011
Conceded late (76+)-0.429

Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level -0.36 · Behind vs level +0.05

Marítimo

Current: winless 4 · scoring 1 · conceding 5

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-14 67%1.751.51.251.240.99
4-3-32 33%0.00.53.00.51.64

Benfica

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 8 · scoring 26 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%2.673.50.672.50.51

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 4.8d before kick-off · 121 snapshots · last 10m before kick-off · biggest step: away +1.7 pts at 2.2d

15.26Home 6% ▼ -2.8 ptsopened 10.427.84Draw 12% ▼ -3.6 ptsopened 5.971.18Away 81% ▲ +6.4 ptsopened 1.26
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Home Draw Away consensus of 6 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle15.26 ▼ -2.87.84 ▼ -3.61.18 ▲ +6.410m
bet36515.0 ▼ -3.56.5 ▼ -3.21.18 ▲ +6.710m
Betfair12.0 · -0.85.5 · -0.21.22 · +1.010m
BetVictor13.0 ▼ -2.66.5 ▼ -3.41.15 ▲ +6.010m
Unibet12.0 ▼ -2.16.0 ▼ -2.11.23 ▲ +4.110m
WilliamHill13.0 ▼ -2.57.0 ▼ -5.11.18 ▲ +7.710m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

15.0Home 6% P 6%6.5Draw 14% P 12%1.18Away 79% P 81%

Double Chance

4.33Maritimo or Draw 11%1.12Maritimo or Benfica 43%1.03Draw or Benfica 46%

Draw No Bet

11.01 9%1.052 91%

Both Teams To Score

2.1Yes 44%1.66No 56%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.47Over 64% P 65%2.6Under 36% P 35%

Total Corners

10.0Under 6 9%3.26 - 8 28%2.629 - 11 34%4.3312 - 14 21%10.0Over 14 9%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 5–7.5% · away 80–82.5% · 103 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home6%6%8%+1.4
Draw12%12%10%-2.8
Away81%81%83%+1.3

In those fixtures: 3.2 goals a game · BTTS 40% · over 2.5 59%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 62.5–65% · 1,570 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.565%64%63%-0.4

Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Career
25 matches · 3 seasons
Cards / match
4.8 (4.8 yellow · 0.0 red)
Fouls / match
27.6 · 5.7 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.08
Cards to home side
49%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 25 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.685.66-1.2215
Fouls / match27.627.9-0.16
Fouls per card5.94.9+1.00 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.040.37-2.250
Time added7.77.7+0.1342
First card
28' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 29% in last 15'
Cards to home side
49% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.0

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-08 · Marítimo 40 300 45'8
2026-05-16 50 220 5'7
2026-04-19 60 260 32'11
2026-04-04 90 340 21'11
2026-03-14 40 220 35'5
2026-02-27 50 260 56'5
2026-01-31 30 260 14'3
2026-01-11 20 200 30'6
2025-11-03 50 300 51'7
2025-10-26 30 340 26'10