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Liga Portugal · Matchweek 4

Momentum

BenficaEstoril
now

Match momentum Δ pressure · 0–100

Waiting for pressure data…

Competition

Stage
Regular Season
Round
4

Venue

Stadium
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa
Capacity
68,100
Surface
grass
Attendance
63,112

Teams

Coaches
Marco Da Silva · Vasco Matos
Position
8 · 17
Formation
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3

Referee

Hélder Carvalho

Weather

Conditions
clear sky
Temperature
19.1° (feels 19.1°)
Wind
10.3
Humidity
77%

Where to watch · 74

2026/2027

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Porto 6600 15213 18 WWWWW
2 Benfica 6510 21417 16 WWWWW
3 Sporting CP 6420 1569 14 WWWWD
4 Santa Clara 6420 1147 14 WWDWW
5 Arouca 6312 853 10 WLWDL
6 Estrela Amadora 6240 14122 10 DWDWD
7 Sporting Braga 5311 752 10 DWWLW
8 Academico Viseu 6222 79-2 8 LDLWW
9 Gil Vicente 5212 440 7 WWDLL
10 Marítimo 6213 711-4 7 WDLLL
11 Moreirense 6213 713-6 7 LWLLW
12 Alverca 6123 811-3 5 DLDLW
13 Famalicão 6042 57-2 4 LLDDD
14 Vitória Guimarães 6114 47-3 4 LWLDL
15 Nacional 6114 711-4 4 WLLLL
16 Rio Ave 6114 514-9 4 LWLLD
17 Estoril 6024 28-6 2 LLLDL
18 Casa Pia 6015 115-14 1 LLLDL
  • UEFA Champions League
  • UEFA Champions League Qualifiers
  • UEFA Europa League
  • UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
  • Relegation Play-off
  • Relegation

Benfica

DDWWW 3W 2D 0L · 11 pts (2.2 ppg) · GF 16 GA 5 · xG 13.71–2.9 · xPts 12.23

  • W A AGF 3–1 xG 1.61–0.56 UEFA EL
  • W H AGF 3–1 xG 5.04–0.46 UEFA EL
  • W A Casa Pia 7–0 xG 2.4–0.26 PRT PL
  • D A Hearts 1–1 xG 1.39–0.66 UEFA EL
  • D H Academico Viseu 2–2 xG 3.27–0.97 PRT PL

Estoril

DLDLL 0W 2D 3L · 2 pts (0.4 ppg) · GF 3 GA 9 · xG 5.67–8.51 · xPts 5.27

  • L H Rio Ave 0–2 xG 1.56–0.7 PRT PL
  • L A Nacional 0–2 xG 0.74–2.08 PRT PL
  • D H Famalicão 1–1 xG 0.89–1.3 PRT PL
  • L H Benfica 1–3 xG 1.9–3.44 PRT PL
  • D A Alverca 1–1 xG 0.58–0.99 PRT PL

All meetings · 23 matches since 2013

Benfica 212 draws0 Estoril

Goals 57–17 · 3.22 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 74%

Last 10 · 10 matches

Benfica 100 draws0 Estoril

Goals 25–7 · 3.2 per match · BTTS 70% · over 2.5 80%

Last 5 · 5 matches

Benfica 50 draws0 Estoril

Goals 13–4 · 3.4 per match · BTTS 80% · over 2.5 100%

Recent meetings

  • W Benfica 2–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 1–3 Benfica PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Benfica 3–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 1–2 Benfica PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Benfica 3–0 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Benfica 3–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 0–1 Benfica PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Benfica 1–0 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Estoril 1–5 Benfica PRT PL · Regular Season
  • W Benfica 2–1 Estoril PRT PL · Regular Season
MetricBenfica all · 6Benfica at home · 3Estoril all · 6Estoril away · 3
Results
Matches66
Points per game2.670.33
W / D / L5 / 1 / 00 / 2 / 4
Goals for / match3.500.33
Goals against / match0.671.33
Clean sheets50%17%
Failed to score0%67%
Both teams scored50%33%
Over 2.5100%17%
Expected goals
xG for / match2.500.83
xG against / match0.511.52
xG difference1.99-0.69
Finishing vs xG1.00-0.50
xPts / match2.540.93
Points vs xPts0.12-0.60
Game state
Scored first83%0%
PPG when scoring first2.60
PPG when conceding first3.000.20
Came back from behind100%20%
Leads held83%
Minutes leading60%0%
Minutes level36%64%
Minutes trailing4%36%
First goal (min)2277
First goal conceded (min)4848
Timing
Goals scored in 2nd half67%100%
Goals conceded in 2nd half75%62%
Late goals for (76'+)0.500.17
Late goals against0.170.33
Style
Possession65%45%
Shots20.312.5
On target7.84.2
Shot conversion17%3%
Shots inside box74%61%
Big chances created3.71.0
Corners8.04.5
xG from set plays31%22%
Goals from headers5%0%
Pressure index24.59.4
Dominant minutes75.840.3
Pass accuracy88%80%
Fouls13.012.3
Cards1.503.17

Goal timing for / against per 15 min

Benfica

0–15'41
16–30'10
31–45'20
46–60'81
61–75'31
76–90'31

Estoril

0–15'01
16–30'00
31–45'02
46–60'01
61–75'12
76–90'12

Pressure DNA · intensity v an average side in the same situations, SD units

Benfica · 13 matches

Pressure well above an average side in the same situations (+0.55) · stands out: late push (76+, level) +0.91

Tempo

Overall intensity+0.5513
Early press (0-15, level)+0.3313
Late push (76+, level)+0.914
Late chase (76+, behind)+0.122

Game state

When ahead+0.3911
When level+0.7513
When behind+0.803
10 min after conceding+0.117
10 min after scoring+0.5513

Situations

At home+0.686
Away+0.437
3 days rest or fewer+0.473
4+ days rest+0.5810

Opposition

v bottom-tier opponents+0.863
As favourite+0.6112

Conceded

Pressure conceded-0.3113
Conceded when ahead-0.2011
Conceded late (76+)-0.429

Congested vs rested -0.11 · Ahead vs level -0.36 · Behind vs level +0.05

Estoril · 6 matches

Pressure in line with an average side in the same situations (-0.04) · stands out: 10 min after conceding -0.39

Tempo

Overall intensity-0.046
Early press (0-15, level)+0.136
Late push (76+, level)+0.013
Late chase (76+, behind)-0.164

Game state

When level+0.036
When behind-0.165
10 min after conceding-0.395
10 min after scoring+0.222

Situations

With ten men-0.212
At home+0.153
Away-0.233
4+ days rest-0.046

Opposition

v top-tier opponents-0.242
v bottom-tier opponents-0.302
Evenly matched-0.113
As underdog-0.242

Conceded

Pressure conceded+0.016
Conceded late (76+)-0.176

Behind vs level -0.19

Benfica

Current: unbeaten 12 · wins 8 · scoring 26 · clean sheets 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-16 100%2.673.50.672.50.51

Estoril

Current: winless 14 · conceding 1

FormationUsePPGGFGAxGxGA
4-2-3-15 83%0.40.21.20.931.43
3-4-31 17%0.01.02.00.341.96

Windows with fewer than 5 matches show no figures.

Pre-match movement · ends at kick-off

Every snapshot up to kick-off only — in-play prices are in Match Hub. Movement is in fair-probability points since the first snapshot (overround removed): ▲ shortened, ▼ drifted.

Pinnacle · opened 5.8d before kick-off · 124 snapshots · last 15m before kick-off · biggest step: home -2.0 pts at 8.2h

1.12Home 87% ▲ +1.1 ptsopened 1.1110.67Draw 9% · -0.2 ptsopened 10.2123.81Away 4% · -0.9 ptsopened 19.02
5d4d3d2d24h12h6h1hKO 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Home Draw Away consensus of 8 bookmakers (dashed) · time axis compressed towards kick-off

BookmakerHomeDrawAwayLast
Pinnacle1.12 ▲ +1.110.67 · -0.223.81 · -0.915m
bet3651.1 ▲ +3.211.0 ▼ -3.217.0 · +0.015m
Betfair1.08 ▲ +1.310.5 · -1.019.0 · -0.315m
BetVictor1.07 ▲ +3.29.0 ▼ -2.118.0 ▼ -1.115m
Coral1.11 ▲ +5.711.0 ▼ -3.317.0 ▼ -2.415m
Ladbrokes1.11 ▲ +6.111.0 ▼ -3.117.0 ▼ -2.915m
Unibet1.12 · +0.99.0 · -0.618.0 · -0.315m
WilliamHill1.1 ▲ +2.010.0 · -1.021.0 ▼ -1.015m

Latest prices

bet365 · last snapshot 0.2h before kick-off. Fair % removes the overround; P = Pinnacle fair %.

Fulltime Result

1.1Home 86% P 87%11.0Draw 9% P 9%17.0Away 6% P 4%

Double Chance

1.04Benfica or Draw 46%1.06Benfica or Estoril 46%6.0Draw or Estoril 8%

Draw No Bet

1.051 91%11.02 9%

Both Teams To Score

1.9Yes 50%1.9No 50%

Goals Over/Under

2.51.25Over 76% P 75%4.0Under 24% P 25%

Total Corners

15.0Under 6 6%4.06 - 8 22%2.629 - 11 33%3.512 - 14 25%6.0Over 14 14%

Fixtures priced like this · Pinnacle closing price · 2017–2026

Every past fixture whose Pinnacle fair price fell in the same band as this one, and how it finished at 90 minutes. Band = mean price in the band; ± = actual minus price, in probability points.

Match result · home 85–87.5% · away 2.5–5% · 296 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Home87%86%88%+1.6
Draw9%10%9%-0.8
Away4%4%3%-0.8

In those fixtures: 3.6 goals a game · BTTS 44% · over 2.5 72%

Goals over/under 2.5 · over 72.5–75% · 217 fixtures

This matchBandActual±
Over 2.575%73%74%+0.3

Hélder Carvalho

Career
42 matches · 5 seasons
Cards / match
4.86 (4.48 yellow · 0.36 red)
Fouls / match
28.5 · 5.9 fouls per card
Penalties / match
0.41
Cards to home side
53%

Style in Liga Portugal (5-year window · 42 matches)

MetricRefereeLeaguevs peerspct
Cards / match4.625.66-1.2912
Fouls / match28.927.8+0.56
Fouls per card6.34.9+1.47 (+ = lenient)
Penalties / match0.450.37+0.6679
Time added8.07.7+0.4873
First card
32' on average
Card timing
16% in first 30' · 37% in last 15'
Cards to home side
53% (league 48%)
VAR events / match
1.31

Recent matches

DateYRFoulsPens1st card+min
2026-08-10 40 291 24'8
2026-05-11 30 260 29'6
2026-04-26 60 301 15'7
2026-04-17 30 210 66'6
2026-04-06 · Benfica 10 290 85'10
2026-03-14 20 340 45'7
2026-02-28 40 260 54'7
2026-02-21 40 301 14'10
2026-01-24 62 230 64'6
2026-01-03 30 221 11'8